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S  0ϔ ^ `  >*  0Ԕ ^   @*  0ٔ ^ `  @*H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.  Default Designh0 w (    04O<p :Experimental Global Tropics Hazards/Benefits Assessment <;8      s *xS<F  IUpdate prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 25, 2008J0JH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.{+D=' 9= @B +0 0  (     <v$ hWeek 1 Outlook  Valid: February 26  March 3, 2008 55  HH<"`4 Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.>     a 6<"`@P|t___PPT9VN 1. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High 2. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for continental South Africa. Persistent high pressure is expected to continue and suppress rainfall across this region. Numerical weather forecast guidance further supports suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate 3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime continent. The continuation of La Nina conditions is expected to result in enhanced rainfall is this region during the period. Confidence: Moderate 4. Favorable conditions exist for tropical cyclogenesis across the Mozambique Channel and southwest Indian Ocean early in the period. Convection remains active across this region and a few existing surface low pressure areas remain. Vertical wind shear is forecast to be relatively low and numerical weather forecast model guidance indicate the potential for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate 5. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the Date Line. Conditions consistent with La Nina (suppressed convection) are expected to result in dry conditions in this region. Confidence: High 6. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High Y    P    o  s             f         t      Y      8X { <<"`  Issued: 2/25  N66NNA20080225_week1"`aH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.{+D=' 9= @B + 0 @q(    <<@, TWeek 2 Outlook  Valid: March 4  10, 2008++ D H<"`4 Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.>     ~ <&<"`  Issued: 2/25|  64)<"`p0  1. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for areas across southeast Africa. The enhanced convective phase of the MJO and La Nina make enhanced rainfall more likely across this region. Confidence: Moderate 2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Indian Ocean, Maritime continent, northern Australia, and parts of the western Pacific Ocean. The continuation of La Nina conditions is expected to result in enhanced rainfall in this region during the period. Confidence: Moderate 3. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the Date Line. Conditions consistent with La Nina (suppressed convection) are expected to result in dry conditions in this region. Confidence: HighT  l     s    e   t   8X  N66NNA20080225_week2"`aH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.{+D=' 9= @B +rPc"X,1(@ `/ 0DArialNew RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ"DTimes New RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ@ . ArialTimes New RomanDefault DesignSlide 1Slide 2Slide 3  Fonts UsedDesign Template Slide Titlesjgot$_? jgottschalckjgottschalckBH@?$@⥶wG`g  7  y--$xx--'@T0Ԗ@ .  @n?" dd@  @@``    O$$b$J:+L?ў {b$IN @ 0AAp@;ʚ;:8ʚ;g4dddd0T0jppp@ <4dddd!0LX{ <4BdBdO$0L<4!d!dO$0L80___PPT10 ?  %      0 0 C(     <v$ hWeek 1 Outlook  Valid: February 26  March 3, 2008 55  HH<"`4 Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.>    : a 6<"`@PN|t___PPT9VN : 1. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High 2. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for continental South Africa. Persistent high pressure is expected to continue and suppress rainfall across this region. Numerical weather forecast guidance further supports suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate 3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime continent. La Nina conditions is expected to result in enhanced rainfall is this region. The area is shifted slightly to the west than that typically observed during La Nina. Confidence: High 4. Favorable conditions exist for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Indian Ocean. Convection remains active across this region and a few existing surface low pressure areas remain. La Nina associated convection increases the chance for low-level westerly flow, upper-level divergence, and other factors favorable for tropical development. Vertical wind shear is forecast to be relatively low and numerical weather forecast model guidance indicate the potential for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate 5. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the Date Line. Conditions consistent with La Nina (suppressed convection) are expected to result in dry conditions in this region. Confidence: High 6. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High ?Y    P    o       X            e         t      Y      8X { <<"`  Issued: 2/25  N66NNA20080225_week1"`aH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.{+D=' = @B +r CIXB{Y1(@ `/ 0DArialNew RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ"DTimes New RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ@ .  @n?" dd@  @@``    O$$b$J:+L?ў {b$IN @ 0AAp@;ʚ;:8ʚ;g4dddd0T0jppp@ <4dddd!0LX{ <4BdBdO$0L<4!d!dO$0L80___PPT10 ?  %      rYXYn`1(@ `/ 0DArialNew RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ"DTimes New RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ@ .  @n?" dd@  @@``    O$$b$J:+L?ў {b$IN @ 0AAp@;ʚ;:8ʚ;g4dddd0T0jppp@ <4dddd!0LX{ <4BdBdO$0L<4!d!dO$0L80___PPT10 ?  %      r`X~`Yg1(@ `/ 0DArialNew RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ"DTimes New RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ@ .  @n?" dd@  @@``    O$$b$J:+L?ў {b$IN @ 0AAp@;ʚ;:8ʚ;g4dddd0T0jppp@ <4dddd!0LX{ <4BdBdO$0L<4!d!dO$0L80___PPT10 ?  %      [0 rj0 (     <v$ hWeek 1 Outlook  Valid: February 26  March 3, 2008 55  HH<"`4 Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.>     a 6<"`@P|t___  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root EntrydO)@0w@ Pictures- Current User#DSummaryInformation(PowerPoint Document(?DocumentSummaryInformation8 @n?" dd@  @@``    O$$b$J:+L?ў {b$IN @ 0AAp@;ʚ;:8ʚ;g4dddd0T0jppp@ <4dddd!0LX{ <4BdBdO$0L<4!d!dO$0L80___PPT10 ?  %      C0 ZR0  (     <v$ hWeek 1 Outlook  Valid: February 26  March 3, 2008 55  HH<"`4 Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.>     a 6<"`@P|t___PPT9VN 1. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High 2. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for continental South Africa. Persistent high pressure is expected to continue and suppress rainfall across this region. Numerical weather forecast guidance further supports suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate 3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime continent. La Nina conditions is expected to result in enhanced rainfall is this region. The area is shifted slightly to the west than that typically observed during La Nina. Confidence: Moderate 4. Favorable conditions exist for tropical cyclogenesis across the Mozambique Channel and southwest Indian Ocean early in the period. Convection remains active across this region and a few existing surface low pressure areas remain. Vertical wind shear is forecast to be relatively low and numerical weather forecast model guidance indicate the potential for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate 5. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the Date Line. Conditions consistent with La Nina (suppressed convection) are expected to result in dry conditions in this region. Confidence: High 6. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High CY    P    o               f         t      Y       8X { <<"`  Issued: 2/25  N66NNA20080225_week1"`aH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.{+D=' = @B +r,3X,B1(@ `/ 0DArialNew RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ"DTimes New RomanLL|{Ԗ  !"$Oh+'0d `hx  Slide 1JGjgottschalck1609Microsoft Office PowerPoint@PP0@?$@P'wG`g  7  y--$xx--'@Times New Roman-. 12 &Experimental Global Tropics ."System`4--&z-@Times New Roman-. 02 !%Hazards/Benefits Assessment .--"%"z-@Times New Roman-. $2 9>Update prepared by:.-@Times New Roman-. 72 >1 Climate Prediction Center / NCEP.-@Times New Roman-. !2 DAFebruary 25, 2008y.-՜.+,0    iOn-screen Show ?d PPT9VN 1. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High 2. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for continental South Africa. Persistent high pressure is expected to continue and suppress rainfall across this region. Numerical weather forecast guidance further supports suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate 3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime continent. La Nina conditions is expected to result in enhanced rainfall is this region. The area is shifted slightly to the west than that typically observed during La Nina. Confidence: High 4. Favorable conditions exist for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Indian Ocean. La Nina associated convection increases the chance for low-level westerly flow, upper-level divergence, and other factors favorable for tropical development. Vertical wind shear is forecast to be relatively low and numerical weather forecast model guidance indicate the potential for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate 5. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the Date Line. Conditions consistent with La Nina (suppressed convection) are expected to result in dry conditions in this region. Confidence: High 6. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High ?Y    P    o       X   3         e         t      Y     * 8X { <<"`  Issued: 2/25  N66NNA20080225_week1"`aH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.{+D=' = @B +rgDnXig}1(@ `/ 0DArialNew RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ"DTimes New RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ@ .  @n?" dd@  @@``    O$$b$J:+L?ў {b$IN @ 0AAp@;ʚ;:8ʚ;g4dddd0T0jppp@ <4dddd!0LX{ <4BdBdO$0L<4!d!dO$0L80___PPT10 ?  %      0   0  (     <v$ hWeek 1 Outlook  Valid: February 26  March 3, 2008 55  HH<"`4 Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.>    w a 6<"`@P|t___PPT9VN w'1. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High 2. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for continental South Africa. Persistent high pressure is expected to continue and suppress rainfall across this region. Numerical weather forecast guidance further supports suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate 3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime continent. La Nina conditions is expected to result in enhanced rainfall is this region. The area is shifted slightly to the west than that typically observed during La Nina. Confidence: High 4. Favorable conditions exist for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Indian Ocean. La Nina associated convection increases the chance for low-level westerly flow, upper-level divergence, and other factors favorable for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate 5. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the Date Line. Conditions consistent with La Nina (suppressed convection) are expected to result in dry conditions in this region. Confidence: High 6. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High ?Y    P    o       X           e         t      Y     ,  8X { <<"`  Issued: 2/25  N66NNA20080225_week1"`aH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.{+D=' = @B +r}X}{1(@ `/ 0DArialNew RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ"DTimes New RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ@ .  @n?" dd@  @@``    O$$b$J:+L?ў {b$IN @ 0AAp@;ʚ;:8ʚ;g4dddd0T0jppp@ <4dddd!0LX{ <4BdBdO$0L<4!d!dO$0L80___PPT10 ?  %      0   0 F (     <v$ hWeek 1 Outlook  Valid: February 26  March 3, 2008 55  HH<"`4 Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.>    = a 6<"`@Pxph___PPT9JB I'1. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High 2. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for continental South Africa. Persistent high pressure is expected to continue and suppress rainfall across this region. Numerical weather forecast guidance further supports suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate 3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime continent. La Nina conditions is expected to result in enhanced rainfall is this region. The area is shifted slightly to the west than that typically observed during La Nina. Confidence: High 4. Favorable conditions exist for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Indian Ocean. La Nina associated convection increases the chance for low-level westerly flow, upper-level divergence, and other factors favorable for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate 5. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the Date Line. Conditions consistent with La Nina (suppressed convection) are expected to result in dry conditions in this region. Confidence: High 6. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High?Y    P    o       X           e         t      Z    0 8X { <<"`  Issued: 2/25  N66NNA20080225_week1"`aH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.{+D=' = @B +rnX1(@ `/ 0DArialNew RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ"DTimes New RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ@ .  @n?" dd@  @@``    O$$b$J:+L?ў {b$IN @ 0AAp@;ʚ;:8ʚ;g4dddd0T0jppp@ <4dddd!0LX{ <4BdBdO$0L<4!d!dO$0L80___PPT10 ?  %      0   0  (     <v$ hWeek 1 Outlook  Valid: February 26  March 3, 2008 55  HH<"`4 Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.>    { a 6<"`@Pxph___PPT9JB A1. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High 2. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for continental South Africa. Persistent high pressure is expected to continue and suppress rainfall across this region. Numerical weather forecast guidance further supports suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate 3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime continent. La Nina conditions is expected to result in enhanced rainfall is this region. The area is shifted slightly to the west than that typically observed during La Nina. Confidence: High 4. Favorable conditions exist for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Indian Ocean. La Nina associated convection increases the chance for low-level westerly flow, upper-level divergence, and other factors favorable for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate 5. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for portions of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The SPCZ is typically enhanced consistent with La Nina (suppressed convection) are expected to result in dry conditions in this region. Confidence: High 6. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High?Y    P    o       X           k              Z    > h 8X { <<"`  Issued: 2/25  N66NNA20080225_week1"`aH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.{+D=' = @B +rQX-1(@ `/ 0DArialNew RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ"DTimes New RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ@ .  @n?" dd@  @@``    O$$b$J:+L?ў {b$IN @ 0AAp@;ʚ;:8ʚ;g4dddd0T0jppp@ <4dddd!0LX{ <4BdBdO$0L<4!d!dO$0L80___PPT10 ?  %      r)X1(@ `/ 0DArialNew RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ"DTimes New RomanLL|{ԖT0Ԗ@ .  @n?" dd@  @@``    O$$b$J:+L?ў {b$IN @ 0AAp@;ʚ;:8ʚ;g4dddd0T0jppp@ <4dddd!0LX{ <4BdBdO$0L<4!d!dO$0L80___PPT10 ?  %      [0 r j 0  (     <v$ hWeek 1 Outlook  Valid: February 26  March 3, 2008 55  HH<"`4 Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.>     a 6<"`@PhjbZ___PPT9<4 1. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for much of Brazil and adjacent waters. Frequent and strong frontal activity is expected to enhance the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhance rainfall in this region. Confidence: High 2. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for continental South Africa. Persistent high pressure is expected to continue and suppress rainfall across this region. Numerical weather forecast guidance further supports suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate 3. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Indian Ocean and western Maritime continent. La Nina conditions is expected to result in enhanced rainfall is this region. The area is shifted slightly to the west than that typically observed during La Nina. Confidence: High 4. Favorable conditions exist for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Indian Ocean. La Nina associated convection increases the chance for low-level westerly flow, upper-level divergence, and other factors favorable for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate 5. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for portions of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The SPCZ is typically enhanced during La Nina so wet conditions are expected in this region. Confidence: Moderate 6. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Pacific Ocean near the Date Line. Conditions consistent with La Nina (suppressed convection) are expected to result in dry conditions in this region. Confidence: High?Y    P    o       X           k         ]      f      t          8X { <<"`  Issued: 2/25  N66NNA20080225_week1"`aH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.{+D='