Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
Graphics & Maps (6-10 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Hawaiian Outlook
     & Anomalies

   Surface Fcst
     Skill

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Graphics & Maps (8-14 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Verifications
   Charts
   Explanation

Related Products
   HPC: Day 6, Day 7
   AO/NAO/PNA/AAO

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jan 23 - 27, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 25 - 31, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 17, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 17 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 27 2017 
 
TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER  
THE ALEUTIANS , AND THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE RIDGES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE  
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CONUS. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN CONUS. TODAY'S BLENDED 500-HPA CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL  
HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS, THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, THE GREAT LAKES,   
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTH DAKOTA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS  
AND ALASKA. 
 
THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD IN THE NORTHERN  
JET STREAM, AND LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THE AO INDEX  
WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN CLOSE TO ZERO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAKLY  
POSITIVE/CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH DAY 14, ALTHOUGH THERE IS RELATIVELY LARGE  
SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE SIGN AND MAGNITUDE OF THE INDEX.  
THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME  
WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY DAY 7, BE CLOSE TO ZERO AT DAY 10, AND REMAIN NEAR ZERO  
THROUGH DAY 14. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR THE EXPECTATION OF AIR MASSES OF PACIFIC ORIGIN  
LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE  
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS,  
WHILE ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.  
 
A SOUTHERN JET STREAM AND THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCE  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXCEPTIONS  
ARE OVER MAINE WHERE A RIDGE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TILTS THE  
ODDS TO NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION, AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE  
ANOMALOUS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. SUBSIDENCE  
ON THE REAR SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE  
TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATIONS FOR THAT REGION AND WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE A WEAK RIDGE TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS, PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 31 2017 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A PATTERN CHANGE DURING WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED, WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, WITH LARGE SPREAD INDICATED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. TODAY'S 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND GENERALLY INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND AIR MASSES OF MOSTLY PACIFIC ORIGIN TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. ANOMALOUS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. ABOVE NORMAL SST'S ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS. ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INDICATES A CHANGE TO THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN THERE IN RECENT WEEKS AND ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE VARIOUS SURFACE TOOLS, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EXPECTED TRANSITION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 19
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890125 - 20070101 - 19741230 - 20070119 - 19910112
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890125 - 20061231 - 20070119 - 19910113 - 19741228 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 27 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 31 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: July 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Careers