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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 05 - 09, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 07 - 13, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 29, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON SEPTEMBER 29 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 09 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR THE 6-10  
DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. A 500-HPA TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO BE  
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE WEST. THERE IS A  
MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS, WITH THE SPREAD IN THE ECMWF  
ENSEMBLES HIGHER THAN THE GFS LEADING TO LOWER PREDICTED AMPLITUDES ON THE  
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW FROM THE ECMWF IS PRIMARILY  
DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, THE GEFS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED DUE TO ITS  
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MEMBERS AND ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.   
   
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
NATION, UNDER AN ANTICIPATED BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT  
SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH, SO THE  
CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NEAR THE GREAT  
LAKES, WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT IS BEST. ELSEWHERE IN THE EAST, NEAR-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, EXCEPT NEAR MAINE WHICH MAY SEE ELEVATED CHANCES OF  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. ALASKAN TEMPERATURES ARE  
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER ABOVE-NORMAL UPPER  
LEVEL HEIGHTS, BUT TOOLS SHOW ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN  
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
ARE ELEVATED THROUGHOUT COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES. 
 
TOOLS FAVOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDER  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH  
AMERICA. MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE JET OVER THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER, ELEVATING  
CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES FOR NEAR-  
TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ENHANCED FOR MOST OF THE ALASKA  
MAINLAND, WITH NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE PANHANDLE. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,  
AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH  
MODELS AGREEING WELL ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LONG WAVE FEATURES, BUT  
DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 07 - 13 2014  
 
THE 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE  
6-10 DAY MEAN. THIS LEADS TO A TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR 8-14 DAYS THAT IS QUITE  
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FOR THE CONUS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS SURFACE  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INDICATE ABOVE-MEDIAN TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
CONUS, HOWEVER, A FORECAST BLOCK OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR GREENLAND  
REQUIRES CLOSE WATCHING, SINCE IT MAY ENABLE COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO ENTER THE  
EASTERN TROUGH, SO PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER THAN  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR THE EASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE 8-14 DAY  
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,  
SUGGESTING THAT SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH MAY PICK UP  
SOME MOISTURE AND ELEVATE CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. CONDITIONS FAVOR BELOW-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER AN EXPECTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. 
 
TOOLS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN ALASKAN CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY  
PERIODS. THE SLIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE PREDICTED MEAN FLOW AT 500-HPA  
IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW IN THE 8-14 DAY  
PERIOD.  THIS ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA  
IN THE 8-14-DAY PERIOD. THE BETTER CHANCES OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ELEVATES THE  
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
COAST OF ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE.   
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO THE UNCERTAIN AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.   
 
FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
OCTOBER 16 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20080921 - 19511012 - 20051003 - 19690920 - 19520910
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20080920 - 19511011 - 19630916 - 20090908 - 20090920 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 09 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A A MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 07 - 13 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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