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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 07 - 11, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 09 - 15, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 01, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT WED JULY 01 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 11 2015 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
THE 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE NORTH AMERICA 
DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN  
ALEUTIANS, NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE  
CONTINENT, WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA.  
TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN  
SOLUTIONS AND BASED LARGELY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG  
CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RESEMBLE CASES THAT  
HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE  
SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 
 
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND  
ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,  
THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF NORTH AMERICA, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. 
 
THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD FOCUS  
SHORT-WAVE ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, ELEVATING CHANCES FOR  
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR A WIDE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO  
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, THE  
OHIO VALLEY, THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST. SOUTH OF THE MEAN FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY, NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR THE GULF  
COAST, FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS  
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION  
WITH THE FORECAST RIDGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN ALASKA. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%  
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 15 2015  
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE  
500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE  
WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED  
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE  
EAST PART OF NORTH AMERICA. 
 
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF NORTH AMERICA, THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ALASKA,  
CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE  
8-14 DAY PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH LOWER  
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LONGER LEAD TIME.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S  
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TEMPERATURE  
AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 
 
FORECASTER: LUKE HE 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JULY 16 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20060624 - 19560709 - 19790715 - 19530708 - 19720702 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20060623 - 19560708 - 19720702 - 20070707 - 19530708 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 11 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   N    N      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      N    A      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    N    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    N      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N      
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    N      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B      
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 15 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      N    N      
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    N      
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N      
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N      
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    N      
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A      
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    N      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B      
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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