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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 04 - 08, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 06 - 12, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 29, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI JULY 29 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 04 - 08 2016 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA  
HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED   
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND NEAR THE  
ALASKA PANHANDLE REGION, WHILE A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE  
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS DOMINATES MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. A RIDGE IS  
FORECAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A ZONAL JET STREAM  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM  
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE  
ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS DEPICT TIMING  
DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
TIER OF THE U.S. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO  
MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD  
INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CONUS AND ALASKA EXCEPT FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHEAST, FLORIDA, AND PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE  
ANTICIPATED. IN GENERAL THE EXPECTED HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE QUITE SMALL IN  
MAGNITUDE ALTHOUGH MODERATE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN  
ALASKA. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS/ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS  
ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
CONUS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, WESTERN  
ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL  
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE  
NORTHWESTERN LOWER 48 STATES AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO NEAR TO  
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION  
AND CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, FURTHER TILTING THE ODDS TO BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. 
 
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST NEAR THE  
SOUTHEAST COAST LEADING TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF COAST. SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR THAT REGION. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED  
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION  
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
IS FORECAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS  
SYSTEM FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. A  
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES  
FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE OVER  
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA  
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF  
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,  
AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY THE FORECAST OF SMALL MAGNITUDE  
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 12 2016  
 
THE WEEK-2 500-HPA ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS  
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER  
EAST-CENTRAL CANADA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH  
FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THE  
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE CONUS, WITH MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAY'S BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST, AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CONUS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN MAINE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR NORTHERN FLORIDA ENHANCING PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH MONSOONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD, ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS STILL FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE REGION. TROUGHING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THAT REGION AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20030728 - 19810807 - 19730810 - 20070709 - 19900713
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20030728 - 19810807 - 19900714 - 20070708 - 20080804 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 04 - 08 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA A N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA B N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 12 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA N A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A MASS N N CONN N B RHODE IS N N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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