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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 02 - 06, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 04 - 10, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 27, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU AUGUST 27 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 06 2015 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
THE 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE NORTH AMERICA 
DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED JUST WEST OF THE BERING  
SEA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTINENT, WHILE ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS  
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND CHART  
INDICATES BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL  
HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED  
PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND BASED LARGELY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF  
RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE MODEL  
SOLUTIONS RESEMBLE CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI  
DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST  
DOMAIN. 
 
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE  
FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AS WELL AS WESTERN ALASKA AND THE  
ALEUTIANS, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.  
 
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW ENHANCE CHANCES  
OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RIDGING ENHANCES CHANCES OF NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW  
ENGLAND. THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN  
ALASKA, WITH ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN ALASKA IN CONSISTENT WITH  
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBLE  
INFLUENCE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.  
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%  
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE  
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 10 2015  
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE  
500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE  
WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED  
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED JUST WEST OF THE BERING SEA AND  
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTINENT, WITH RIDGING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. 
 
THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK-2 ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE  
PREDICTED FOR DAYS 6-10. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR  
NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AS WELL AS  
WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.  
 
SOUTHWESTERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW AND TROUGHING FAVOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION   
AMOUNTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE   
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE,    
ENHANCING CHANGES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE   
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR THE EAST  
COAST DUE TO THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL  
STORM ERIKA. THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR  
MAINE, SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, WITH ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IN CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES  
FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S  
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN  
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  
 
FORECASTER: LUKE HE 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
SEPTEMBER 17 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19850825 - 19970821 - 19970910 - 19540829 - 19940907 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19850825 - 19970820 - 19540829 - 20050830 - 19940907 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 06 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    N      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    N      
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N      
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    B      
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B      
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  B    B      
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    N    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 10 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    N      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    N      
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    N    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    N    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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