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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Feb 04 - 08, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 06 - 12, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 29, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 29 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 08 2015 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER  
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE A RIDGE IS  
FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TOWARDS WESTERN  
CANADA. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES A BIT  
FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. RECENT HIGH  
RESOLUTION RUNS FROM THE ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR  
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE LATEST GFS HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT  
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO THEIR  
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. SINCE THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE MORE CONSISTENT,  
THEY WERE FAVORED IN TODAYS MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND CHART. 
 
THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE VERY LOW SPREAD OVER THE  
EASTERN CONUS, AND LOW TO MODERATE MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE  
PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIVE BY DAY 7,  
AND REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN  
POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE BUT REMAIN POSITIVE BY DAY 7, AND  
REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAY'S BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART INDICATES  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND ALASKA,  
AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE  
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. 
 
THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE AND  
AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES  
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE ANOMALOUS  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE  
ALASKA PANHANDLE. 
 
THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE ON  
THE REAR SIDE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR  
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL CONUS.  
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO FAVORING BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR  
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A TROUGH FORECAST NEAR WESTERN ALASKA ENHANCES  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA  
PANANDLE, AND SECTIONS OF WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN  
CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST OF ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW  
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,  
20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 15% OF TODAY'S  
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS, AND  
A PERSISTENT, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 06 - 12 2015  
 
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY INDICATE A  
PROGRESSION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY  
PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE  
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES  
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THE 0Z HIGH RESOLUTION GFS  
FORECAST IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN ITS CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO AS WAS  
TRUE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE WEEK-2 BLEND IS MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED BY THE  
ECMWF AND CANADIAN FORECASTS. A TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS  
WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA  
WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE ENSEMBLE  
SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN  
CONUS AND LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WEST. 
 
TODAY'S WEEK-2 BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE  
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE  
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. 
 
THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK-2 ARE  
MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, AS  
HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THE AREA OF EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SHRINKS A  
BIT AS THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPANDS EAST/NORTHEASTWARD. JET  
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEADS TO AN EXPANSION  
OF THE AREA FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. AS THE TROUGH  
ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST, THE FORECAST  
AREA OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLORIDA DURING  
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR  
WEEK-2. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z  
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 15%  
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S  
12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY THE DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING  
ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT  
AMONG THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. 
 
FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
FEBRUARY 19 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19540207 - 20050119 - 19760119 - 20050130 - 19870208 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19540207 - 20050120 - 20050129 - 19910209 - 19870209 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 08 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    N    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B      
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     B    B     W TEXAS     N    B      
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B      
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   B    B      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    N      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B      
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    B      
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    B      
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N      
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N      
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 06 - 12 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B      
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     N    N      
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    N    B      
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   N    N      
ILLINOIS    N    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    N      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B      
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    B      
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B      
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B      
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B      
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    B      
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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