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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 05 - 09, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 07 - 13, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 30, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT WED JULY 30 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 09 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 6-10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA  
HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE MODELS PERSIST THE LONG-WAVE  
TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. TODAY'S MODELS PREDICTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S PREDICTIONS, SO THERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES IN THE RESPECTIVE SURFACE FORECASTS.  ALASKA REMAINS THE MOST DIFFICULT REGION OF THE COUNTRY TO FORECAST DUE TO A RELATIVELY COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FORECAST OVER THE STATE, WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH PREDICTED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE, WHILE A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE IS FORECAST JUST OFF THE WESTERN ALASKAN COAST. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, WITH CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST. THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST TODAY THAN IN YESTERDAYS SOLUTION, INCREASING THE CHANCES OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND ENHANCING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR FLORIDA. A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IS EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN DUE TO THE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AN EXPECTED MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, AND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  TOOLS SUGGEST A RATHER WIDE AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, SUGGESTING A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NAEFS AND THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK, TODAY'S TOOLS SHOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.  TODAY'S PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REVISED TOWARD HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE REGION. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S MODELS AND TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 13 2014 THE ANOMALY PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
ANOMALIES ARE QUITE SMALL. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW AN EASTERN TROUGH THAT IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER, AND FARTHER WEST THAN NORMAL. ELSEWHERE OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGES. THE ONLY SUBSTANTIAL ANOMALIES EVIDENT ON THE 8-14 DAY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA, WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED IN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH (ECMWF, CANADIAN) OR SOUTHWEST (GEFS) OF THE STATE. IN SPITE OF THE FORECAST FOR WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALIES, THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AMONG THE TOOLS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, SINCE THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR 8-14 DAYS ARE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK.  CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK TWO PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE UNCERTAIN. THE NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOL INDICATIONS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE MONSOON REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS OFFSET BY AN EXPECTED PROGRESSION TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 21
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19670711 - 20080808 - 19620721 - 19650727 - 19560716
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19670711 - 19620722 - 20080808 - 20040804 - 19600709 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 09 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 13 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH N A ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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