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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 07 - 11, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 09 - 15, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 01, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON SEPTEMBER 01 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 07 - 11 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA  
MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS FOR THE  
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GENERAL PATTERN FEATURES 500-HPA RIDGES OVER THE FAR  
WESTERN PACIFIC, FAR EASTERN PACIFIC, AND SOUTHEAST CONUS, AND 500-HPA TROUGHS  
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION, WITH RELATIVELY MINOR PHASE DIFFERENCES. THOUGH THE 500-HPA HEIGHT  
DEPARTURES RANGE FROM ABOUT 60-150 METERS ABOVE OR BELOW THE 1981-2010 NORMALS  
ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN AND PORTIONS OF CANADA, THE ANTICIPATED DEPARTURES  
OVER THE CONUS ARE MUCH LESS, RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO TO ABOUT 45 METERS (PLUS  
OR MINUS) IN MOST CASES. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS (06Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF,  
AND 00Z CANADIAN RUNS, 5820 METER CONTOURS) INDICATE LOW DISPERSION/SPREAD OVER  
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND MODERATE DISPERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. 
 
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA,  
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ENVIRONS, AND MOST OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS DUE TO  
VARIOUS FACTORS SUCH AS 500-HPA TROUGHS, NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND WEAK  
DISTURBANCES ALOFT. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH  
OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA, THE WEST COAST STATES INCLUDING WESTERN NEVADA, AND  
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM  
DELAWARE SOUTHWARD THROUGH FLORIDA. THIS IS BASED ON 500-HPA RIDGING AND/OR  
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THIS TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS GENERALLY  
CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND REFORECAST TOOL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, AND THE  
AUTOMATIC BLENDED TEMPERATURE PROG. 
  
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED OVER NORTHERN AND  
EASTERN ALASKA, MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PLAINS, AND NEARLY ALL AREAS FROM THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY ATTRIBUTED  
TO THE EXPECTATION OF APPROACHING 500-HPA TROUGHS AND/OR MONSOON MOISTURE.  
CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED OVER SOUTHWEST  
ALASKA, MOST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, MOST OF NORTHERN  
UTAH, AND MOST OF NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS IS  
GENERALLY DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF 500-HPA RIDGES AND/OR POSITIVE HEIGHT  
ANOMALIES. THIS PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS, THE REFORECAST TOOL, AND THE AUTOMATIC BLENDED PRECIPITATION PROG. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 15 2014 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. A SLIGHT FLATTENING OF THE
FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST BY MOST SOLUTIONS, AND THE OPERATIONAL 00Z AND 06Z GFS RUNS ANTICIPATE A NOTICEABLE EASTWARD SHIFT (ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE) IN THE PRIMARY LONG-WAVES FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINLAND ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI MAPS (5820 METER CONTOURS FOR MODELS NOTED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD) INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND MODERATE TO HIGH SPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE (RESIDUAL RIDGING), THE WEST COAST STATES INCLUDING MUCH OF NEVADA (RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED 500-HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES), AND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY, CAPE COD AND MUCH OF MAINE (SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IN THE SOUTH, WEAK RIDGING IN THE NORTH). THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA (500-HPA TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES), AND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS (EXPECTATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTH). ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA, MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PLAINS, AND NEARLY ALL AREAS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE EXPECTATION OF APPROACHING 500-HPA TROUGHS AND/OR MONSOON MOISTURE. CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALASKA, AND FROM MOST OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING. THIS IS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF 500-HPA RIDGES AND/OR POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THIS OUTLOOK IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS, THE REFORECAST TOOL, AND THE AUTOMATIC BLENDED PRECIPITATION PROG. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY AN EXPECTED LOWER-AMPLITUDE FORECAST PATTERN FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19830904 - 19920908 - 20010905 - 20000909 - 19800901
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19920908 - 20000909 - 19830906 - 19580901 - 19800831 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 07 - 11 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B B UTAH B N ARIZONA N A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 15 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B N WYOMING B B UTAH N N ARIZONA N A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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