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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: May 03 - 07, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 05 - 11, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Apr 27, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON APRIL 27 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 03 - 07 2015 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
THE 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE NORTH AMERICA 
DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE BERING SEA.  
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR THE WEST  
COAST OF THE CONUS, WITH A RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND A TROUGH DIRECTLY SOUTH OF IT  
OVER CALIFORNIA. A SOUTHWESTLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN CONUS WHILE A TROUGH IS OVER KEY WEST AND CUBA. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA  
HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND BASED  
LARGELY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH  
MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RESEMBLE CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN  
THE PAST. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE  
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 
 
THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE  
NORTHERN CONUS, DUE TO ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND SOUTHWESTLY ANOMALOUS  
FLOW. RIDGING OVER ALASKA ALSO INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA.  
 
NEAR TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA AHEAD OF A  
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO  
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES, THE PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN   
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS. THERE  
ARE ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA NEAR A TROUGH  
PREDICTED OVER KEY WEST. THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH WEST AND EAST COAST OF THE CONUS IN CONSISTENT WITH  
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%  
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 11 2015  
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE  
500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE  
WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED  
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA AND A TROUGH ACROSS  
THE WESTERN CONUS. A SOUTHWESTLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD  
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA, AND MUCH OF THE  
NORTHERN, EAST AND WEST COAST OF THE CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHWESTLY  
ANOMALOUS FLOW AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS  
FOR BELOW-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN  
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST  
GUIDANCE. 
 
NEAR TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA AHEAD OF A  
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO  
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH  
PREDICTED NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCE OF  
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WEST COAST OF THE CONUS IN CONSISTENT WITH  
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S  
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 
 
FORECASTER: LUKE HE 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY  
21 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19990413 - 19750429 - 19790409 - 19630409 - 19560416 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19790410 - 19990412 - 19790415 - 19710421 - 19750429 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 03 - 07 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N      
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N      
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B      
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 11 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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