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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Nov 26 - 30, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Nov 28 - Dec 04, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Nov 20, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST THU NOVEMBER 20 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - 30 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN  
FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST OF TODAY'S MODELS PREDICT A DEEP TROUGH  
CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, AND ANOMALOUS RIDGING IN THE WESTERN  
HALF OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES LESS ANOMALOUS RIDGING  
IN THE WESTERN U.S. THE 0Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER TODAY,  
FORECASTING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EVERYWHERE IN THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE  
WEST COAST. SINCE THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER  
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, IT WAS GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT IN TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA  
HEIGHT BLEND. IN ADDITION TELECONNECTIONS OFF OF A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY  
CENTER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IN THE  
ATLANTIC INDICATE A 6-10 DAY PATTERN THAT CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS ENSEMBLE  
FORECAST. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE STATE. ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALSO INCREASES THE  
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY OVER  
COASTAL CA WHERE OFFSHORE, DOWNSLOPING WINDS STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER  
OF THE CONUS DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SNOW COVER. 
 
ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION OVER ALASKA. STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN  
CONUS FROM CANADA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHEAST, AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 45% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GEFS MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN, AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 04, 2014 BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE 500-HPA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND BECOME MUCH LESS CERTAIN. TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE ARE OUT OF PHASE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR THE WEST COAST AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE INDICATES POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OFF THE WEST COAST AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN, AND AS SUCH WAS FAVORED IN TODAY'S WEEK-2 MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND. THE TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER DUE TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY. SINCE ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW FAVORED FOR WEEK-2 IN ALASKA. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW FAVORED THERE. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN WEEK-2 TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, FAVORING NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL STORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN U.S. FAVORS NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THERE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: WELL BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, AS WELL AS WEAKER ANOMALIES, AND FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. FORECASTER: MIKE CHARLES NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20001119 - 19511031 - 19761129 - 19921114 - 20021102
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20001118 - 19511103 - 20021103 - 19921115 - 19761128 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - 30 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B B NEVADA A B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 04, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B B UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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