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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 29 - Aug 02, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 31 - Aug 06, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 23, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT WED JULY 23 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST  
CIRCULATION OVER NORTH AMERICA. CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS HIGH AS THE VARIOUS  
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT SHOULD BE ANOTHER  
IMPRESSIVELY COOL SUMMER PERIOD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL  
500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, THOUGH THERE IS A SUBTLE RETROGRESSION OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE FEATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY WINDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE EXTENT OF PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EVEN HIGHER THAN IN YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK, WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS FORECAST TO SETTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. ANOMALOUS RIDGING COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS OFFSHORE WINDS STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS REGION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGION WHERE SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD TURNING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS FAVORS NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE AGAIN THE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS EAST OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S MODELS AND TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2014 THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED. THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST SLIGHTLY FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SHIFTED SOUTH AS HIGHER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. UNCERTAINTY IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FORECAST A RESULT OF LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT THE PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 21
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810731 - 20010731 - 19670720 - 19820720 - 20050717
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19670720 - 20010731 - 19820720 - 19810730 - 20050716 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A B MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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