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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Mar 11 - 15, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Mar 13 - 19, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Mar 05, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST THU MARCH 05 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 15 2015 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION  
PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A  
TROUGH OVER ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, A RIDGE OVER WESTERN  
CANADA, SPLIT-FLOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO MEXICO, AND  
A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT  
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, AND POSITIVE  
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS.  
 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST  
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS, AS WELL AS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND  
COASTAL REGIONS. PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALOFT ENHANCE  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS.  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTH SLOPE, WHILE  
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, UNDER  
THE PREDICTED TROUGH. 
 
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE WEST COAST STATES FROM  
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD, AS WELL AS FOR PARTS OF ALASKA INCLUDING THE  
PANHANDLE, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, AND THE WESTERN COAST.  
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE PREDICTED  
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED  
FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST, DOWNSTREAM OF THE  
PREDICTED RIDGE. 
 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,  
10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
MODEL OF THE DAY: THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS AND AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 19 2015  
 
ENSEMBLE MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD  
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED  
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS PREDICTED TO  
BE LESS AMPLIFIED IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS  
INCREASE AND BECOME ABOVE-NORMAL OVER THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT  
ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE ALSO PREDICTED TO DECREASE IN  
MAGNITUDE DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. 
 
THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR IN THE 6-10 DAY AND THE 8-14 DAY  
FORECAST PERIODS, WITH GENERALLY REDUCED PROBABILITIES IN THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST  
AS UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. NEAR-NORMAL IS MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IN  
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD WHERE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
ARE FORECAST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AS ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE NOW  
PREDICTED. 
 
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ARE PREDICTED FOR THE  
8-14 DAY PERIOD. NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS NOW MOST LIKELY FOR THE PACIFIC  
COAST, AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS DISSIPATING. ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST,  
WHILE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN  
U.S. EXTEND FURTHER NORTH IN THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST. NEAR-MEDIAN IS MORE LIKELY  
THAN BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER NEW ENGLAND IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. 
 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, AS WELL  
AS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN. 
 
FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
MARCH 19 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19660214 - 19890213 - 19670306 - 20020303 - 20060219 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19670306 - 19660214 - 20060219 - 19890212 - 20020304 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 15 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    B      
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B      
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    B      
VERMONT     N    B     NEW HAMP    N    B     MAINE       N    B      
MASS        N    B     CONN        N    B     RHODE IS    N    B      
PENN        A    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N      
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 19 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    B      
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N      
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    N      
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST N    B     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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