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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 04 - 08, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 06 - 12, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 29, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI AUGUST 29 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 08 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN HEIGHT  
FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING POSITIVE 500-HPA  
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PACIFIC, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS  
TO A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT  
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A
TROUGH FORECAST JUST INLAND OF THE PACIFIC COAST. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THERE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR THE REST OF ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE RELATED TO RIDGING. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN PROXIMITY TO THE THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE AREA. ALL FORECAST TOOLS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS, WITH FORECAST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED SOUTH OF THE MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND SOUTHEAST. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, RELATED TO THE PREDICTED LOWER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG AND EAST OF THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S GFS SUPER-ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE TIED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 06 - 12 2014 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
CONUS. OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THERE. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, A CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPECTED TROUGH. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AND WEST COAST CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH IN CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AND THE GREAT BASIN CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE FORECAST PATTERN FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20050824 - 20060826 - 20010905 - 19830903 - 19620908
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20050821 - 19980815 - 19620909 - 20060826 - 20050826 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 04 - 08 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B B NEVADA N B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH N B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 06 - 12 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH N B ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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