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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 27 - 31, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 29 - Nov 04, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 21, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE OCTOBER 21 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - 31 2014 
 
THE AVAILABLE MODELS FROM TODAY EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
THE 0Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF. THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A TROUGH OFF THE WEST  
COAST AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN  
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED BY  
MOST MODELS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, WITH THE 0Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF  
SOLUTION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS.  
 
THE 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND'S LARGEST CONSTITUENT WAS THE 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THAT MODEL HAS THE BEST COMBINED RANKING OF ANOMALY  
CORRELATION OF THE MOST RECENT 60 DAYS AND ANALOG CORRELATION. THE 0Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS THE SECOND LARGEST COMPONENT, AS THAT MODEL HAS THE BEST  
COMBINED SCORE AMONG THE GFS BASED SOLUTIONS. THE 6Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE  
MEAN, AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE EXCLUDED DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH  
SATELLITE DATA INGEST FROM SOME POES AND GOES SYSTEMS. THE ISSUE IS NOT  
SUSPECTED TO HAVE IMPACTED THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS.  
 
TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS YIELD A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND TOOLS OFF THE MODELS. THE 0Z DETERMINISTIC EUROPEAN WAS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT FROM THE TELECONNECTIONS RUN ON THE POSITIVE HEIGHT CENTER, AS THAT MODEL HAS THE POSITIVE HEIGHT CENTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, RESULTING IN A SHIFT IN THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AXIS LOCATION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS UNDER MOSTLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL FLOW, WHILE THE ALASKA PANHANDLE IS LIKELY INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER CANADA. SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THERE, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER ALASKA FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. TROUGHING NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FAVOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, AND FROM THE GULF COAST TO NEW ENGLAND DUE TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MEAN STORM TRACK. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS. SATELLITE DATA INGEST INTO GFS AND CANADIAN DID NOT HAPPEN PROPERLY, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ANA, LOWERING CONFIDENCE BY 1 POINT. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 04, 2014 MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD EXHIBIT MORE DISAGREEMENT THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS TO THE GREAT PLAINS. ANOMALIES IN THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE EXTREMELY WEAK.
TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT CENTER NEAR THE ALEUTIANS, A FEATURE COMMON TO MANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO PLACEMENT OF CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SHIFTING THE CENTER EAST BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES LONGITUDE COMPLETELY FLIPS THE SIGN OF THE PRECIPITATION ANOMALY FOR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS NEAR THE ALEUTIANS, SO THIS HIGH LEVEL OF SENSITIVITY INCREASES UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTLOOK. THE LARGELY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND GREAT LAKES WHERE THE STORM TRACK IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE. SOUTHWEST FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WHILE LOW-LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS LIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, FAVORING ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE REGIONS. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST, FAVORING BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF COAST BUT SUPPORTING ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINS FOR MUCH OF FLORIDA.  GOOD RETURN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INCREASES THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIANS PRECIPITATION IN THAT REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE FORECAST PATTERN, AND UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL DATA INGEST IRREGULARITIES AND SENSITIVITY IN TELECONNECTION PATTERNS. FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 20
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19841007 - 19541019 - 19531011 - 19831101 - 20081002
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19531011 - 19841007 - 19631011 - 19831031 - 19641012 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - 31 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 04, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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