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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Oct 07 - 11, 2013 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 09 - 15, 2013 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 01, 2013 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE OCTOBER 01 2013
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 07 - 11 2013
RECENT ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. A BROAD TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA. RIDGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND EASTERN ALASKA. RECENT DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE GFS-BASED
DETERMINISTIC RUNS INDICATE MORE TROUGH ENERGY REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS, WHILE THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS DEPICT A SHARPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS.
THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS GENERALLY SHOW MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST, THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE, AND EASTERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCES
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN ALASKA, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS.
THE BROAD TROUGH ANTICIPATED OVER THE CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW
TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND AN ACTIVE JETSTREAM ENHANCES
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...25
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S
12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TOOL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY LARGER THAN AVERAGE
SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 09 - 15 2013
DURING WEEK 2, THE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE
AND DEAMPLIFIED FROM THAT INDICATED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MOST RECENT
GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES
AND HOLD MORE TROUGH ENERGY BACK OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
TODAYS WEEK 2 BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, THE NORTHWEST CONUS, EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA,
AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.
THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ANTICIPATED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH AS THE
BROAD TROUGH DOMINATING THE CONUS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, A WETTER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 17
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19681012 - 20071001 - 19621008 - 19620911 - 20040918
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19681012 - 19621008 - 20070930 - 20040914 - 19810925
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 07 - 11 2013
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B B
UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 09 - 15 2013
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N
UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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