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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Dec 11 - 15, 2013 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 13 - 19, 2013 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Dec 05, 2013 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU DECEMBER 05 2013
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 11 - 15 2013
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING A
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A STRONG
RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE ARE,
HOWEVER, SOME NOTICEABLE DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN TODAY'S DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. TODAY'S DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF PREDICTS SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FORECAST OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A ZONALLY ORIENTED NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS DIFFERS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WHICH FORECAST
A MORE PHASED, BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
SOLUTIONS ARE, HOWEVER, IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WAS FAVORED TODAY BASED
PRIMARILY ON RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY
THE MODEL FORECAST MATCHES CIRCULATION PATTERNS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
UNDERNEATH BROAD, CYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
UNDERNEATH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DUE TO A TROUGH
FORECAST IN THE VICINITY.
THERE ARE INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF MOIST PACIFIC FLOW, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA.
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WEAK RIDGING
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND
SOUTHWEST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FORECAST BOUNDARY. BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE
PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL
12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
MODERATELY HIGH MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC SECTOR AS WELL AS DISAGREEMENTS
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 13 - 19 2013
FOR THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS FORECAST A STRONG 500-HPA
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, A TROUGH IS FORECAST
OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND LOW-AMPLITIDE, CYCLONIC FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER
MOST OF THE CONUS. IN GENERAL, MODELS ARE PREDICTING A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS RELATIVE TO THE PRECEDING 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS
DEAMPLIFICATION IS REFLECTED IN TODAY'S DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION
WHICH PREDICTS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE WEEK TWO 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND
IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE RESULTING PATTERN
DEPICTS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM CANADA
TO GREENLAND AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH A
POSITIVE AO INDEX, WHICH IS PREDICTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REDUCED RELATIVE
TO YESTERDAY OVER THE CONUS BOTH IN MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE. THIS IS DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF A TRANSITION TO A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN. HOWEVER, ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND NEW ENGLAND DUE, IN
PART, TO THE EXPECTATION OF RESIDUAL COLD AIR EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SUPPORTED
BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE RIDGE PREDICTED UPSTREAM OVER THE BERING SEA.
CONVERSELY, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
(INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE) DUE TO A TROUGH FORECAST OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA.
THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA.
THERE ARE INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF MOIST PACIFIC FLOW, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH
GEFS REFORECAST AND NAEFS SPECIFICATIONS. CONVERSELY, BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED MEAN
STORM TRACK. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 19
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19981219 - 19561203 - 19611209 - 19851118 - 20081214
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19851121 - 19561203 - 19611210 - 20091206 - 19721207
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 11 - 15 2013
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N
UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 13 - 19 2013
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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