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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 01 - 05, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 03 - 09, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 26, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2017 
 
RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN  
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE  
6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THE SOUTHWEST,  
AND NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER WEST-CENTRAL CANADA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI  
CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN LOWER 48  
STATES, MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND LARGE SPREAD OVER  
ALASKA. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER  
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS WELL AS MOST OF ALASKA,  
WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE  
FORECAST DOMAIN. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR  
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGHING AND  
ASSOCIATED NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER  
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL SSTS  
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED  
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM  
THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 
 
TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE SOUTHWEST ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR  
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING OVER  
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS  
UNDERNEATH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE TROUGH NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA TILTS THE  
ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%  
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z  
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2017 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN DUE, IN PART, TO DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WEAK TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST, AND OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS INDICATED OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN AND THERE ARE LARGE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS. FOR THIS REASON, THE WEEK-2 MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS ENTIRELY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS AS WELL AS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS EXTENDING TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDERNEATH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. FORECASTER: SCOTT H NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19660519 - 19660512 - 19850516 - 19520518 - 20030510
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19660516 - 19850515 - 19520517 - 19820605 - 19660511 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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