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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 04 - 08, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 06 - 12, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 28, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT WED SEPTEMBER 28 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 04 - 08 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT. GENERALLY, THE MODELS PREDICT  
TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA, RIDGING OVER MOST OF ALASKA, TROUGHING OVER THE  
WESTERN CONUS, AND RIDGING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL  
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE GFS-BASED AND ENVIRONMENT  
CANADA MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRE  
MODELS DEPICT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE MANUAL BLEND CAPTURES THE  
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES FROM ALASKA TO THE WESTERN CONUS TO THE NORTHEAST, AND  
INDICATES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. 
 
RIDGING OVER ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN  
ALASKA PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO  
FILTER IN. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
FAVORED FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MEAN RIDGING FAVORS ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST  
PROBABILITIES OVER THE NORTHEAST.  
 
THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS LIKELY TO STEER STORMS TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN  
ALASKA, WHICH ARE THEN LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE MEAN RIDGE OVER  
ALASKA. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST FAVORS A STORM TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS  
DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, FAVORING ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE REGIONS. RIDING FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM  
THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE  
ACTIVITY TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF  
THE EAST COAST, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT IMPACTS  
ANYWHERE FROM FLORIDA TO MAINE, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST. ONE OF THOSE AREAS IS LIKELY TO  
BE IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW, BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ELIMINATING  
EITHER POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%  
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7,  
10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS IN A MORE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN,  
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF  
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW. 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 12 2016  
 
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES QUITE A BIT INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS THE PREDICTED  
ANOMALIES BECOME MUCH WEAKER AND MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES. EUROPEAN CENTRE FORECASTS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS, WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. GFS BASED SOLUTIONS ARE A MIDDLE GROUND. THE MANUAL BLEND FAVORS THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS TODAY AS THOSE MODELS HAVE HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE GEFS BASED SOLUTIONS HAVE ANALOG CORRELATION SCORES ON PAR WITH THE OTHER MODELS, SO THE FORECAST PATTERNS ARE NOT INCONSISTENT WITH PRIOR OBSERVATIONS. THE DEAMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN RESULTS IN LOWER PROBABILITIES IN THE SURFACE FORECASTS COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, BUT THE SIGNAL IS MUCH WEAKER THAN EARLIER PERIODS OR FROM PRIOR DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTWARD, WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES. RIDGING FORECAST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER ALASKA IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AND ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ACTIVITY TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA. WEAK RIDGING FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AS THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW AND WEAK ANOMALIES. FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 20
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19960919 - 20081006 - 19981004 - 20010927 - 20071009
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19960920 - 20071010 - 20081005 - 19870917 - 19981004 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 04 - 08 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 12 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA B B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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