Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 and 8-14 Day Prognostic Discussions

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Tue July 15 2025 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 21 - 25 2025 
 
Today's model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa  
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the  
6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the  
ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models. The resultant manual  
blend features an amplified ridge over the North Pacific and another area of  
positive height anomalies over the Chukchi Sea, with weak troughing squeezed in  
between over the Bering Sea. Another weak trough is depicted over Alberta and  
Saskatchewan, and weak ridging over much of the eastern Contiguous U.S.  
(CONUS). Model solutions de-amplify the North Pacific ridge fairly quickly  
during the 6-10 day period and amplify ridging over the eastern CONUS. However,  
model solutions diverge steadily with respect to this pattern shift, making for  
less forecast certainty later in the forecast period. 
 
Positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the eastern CONUS and only minimal  
troughing over Canada favors above-normal temperatures across most of the  
CONUS, with probabilities of at least 50% being almost universal east of the  
Rockies and south of the Great Lakes. Odds tilt towards below-normal  
temperatures along the western U.S.-Canada border, under the influence of  
troughing to the north, and along the California coast where enhanced  
alongshore winds potentially increase marine layer intrusion over land. For  
Alaska, troughing over the Bering Sea favors onshore flow into the Mainland,  
pushing the odds towards below-normal temperatures, while above-normal  
temperatures are favored for Southeastern Alaska, just downstream from the  
strong ridge over the North Pacific and thus displaced from this moist influx.  
Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific indicate  
above-normal temperatures with Hawaii, supported also by the Hawaii-CON and the  
autoblend.  
  
The Bermuda high has weakened somewhat over the last month as depicted in model  
ensembles, however a steady stream of Gulf moisture advecting into the Great  
Plains and Southeast U.S. continues to be favored, tilting the odds towards  
above-normal precipitation for much of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River.  
Weak troughing over the Canadian Plains provides some instability and enhanced  
odds (40-60% percent chance) of above-normal precipitation along the  
U.S.-Canada border and downstream into the Upper Mississippi and Lower Ohio  
Valleys, while a weak stationary frontal boundary over the Southeast U.S. and  
potential tropical cyclone (TC) genesis near the northern Gulf Coast similarly  
enhances the odds of above-normal precipitation for portions of the Southeast  
U.S. Troughing over the Bering Sea results in onshore flow for the Alaska  
Mainland, favoring above-normal precipitation, while for Southeastern Alaska a  
less favorable alongshore flow pattern pushes the odds slightly towards  
below-normal precipitation. The consensus among forecast tools indicates  
above-normal precipitation for Hawaii, with the exception of the Big Island   
where near-normal precipitation is preferred. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Very  
good agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and  
statistical tools is offset by diverging model solutions late in the period. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 23 - 29 2025  
 
Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a continued  
de-amplification and retrogression of the 500-hPa North Pacific ridge that  
began during the 6-10 day period as well as building positive height anomalies  
over the central and eastern CONUS. The troughing along the U.S.-Canada border  
is weaker in week-2, resulting in close to zonal flow over North America.  
Onshore flow continues for the Alaskan Mainland, maintaining chances of  
below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. 
 
Chances of above-normal temperatures continue for the CONUS and are favored to  
spread well into the Great Basin. Elevated probabilities continue for much of  
the Lower 48 and at least a 50% probability is almost universal east of the  
Rockies and as far north as the Great Lakes. Increased cloudiness associated  
with onshore flow would tend to favor below-normal temperatures over the  
Alaskan Mainland, while above-normal temperatures continue to be likely for  
Southeastern Alaska, likely due to the continued ridging over the North  
Pacific. Hawaii continues to lean towards above-normal temperatures, consistent  
with the Hawaii-CON. 
 
Odds tilt towards above-normal precipitation for most of the eastern CONUS due  
to continued availability of tropical moisture from the Gulf region, and along  
the U.S.-Canada border due to a weaker but persistent trough over central  
Canada. Probabilities of above-normal precipitation are slightly enhanced for  
portions of the Gulf Coast where the potential for TC activity continues into  
week-2. Continued weak troughing over the Bering Sea tilts Mainland Alaska  
towards above-normal precipitation, while near- to below-normal precipitation  
is favored along the southern coast. Above-normal precipitation also continues  
to be weakly favored for the Hawaiian Islands. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good  
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical  
tools is offset by diverging model solutions as the period progresses. 
 
FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
July 17. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19520708 - 19520713 - 19780719 - 19950630 - 20050717 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19520711 - 19520706 - 19950630 - 20050716 - 19780719 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jul 21 - 25 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      N    B      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        N    N     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    N    N      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jul 23 - 29 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      N    N      
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N      
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
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