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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Mar 05 - 09, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Mar 07 - 13, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 27, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 27 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE  
500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A  
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH  
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST  
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE  
REST OF CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS  
THE FORECAST DOMAIN.  
 
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPECTED TROUGH EXCEPT FOR THE  
SOUTHEAST WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THERE ARE ENHANCED  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST COAST, RELATED TO THE  
FORECAST RIDGE. NEAR- AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA  
INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.   
 
NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,  
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN  
CONUS.  NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE  
MUCH OF THE CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.  
THIS AREA IS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND AWAY FROM THE MEAN STORM  
TRACK.  THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR  
ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLES RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK. 
 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%  
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, REASONABLY  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE  
INCONSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BETWEEN THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES    
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015  
 
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2  
PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A SHORT WAVE WITH A TROUGH IS  
PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH  
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER  
THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, A CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN  
SOLUTIONS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA  
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE MOST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. 
 
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE INTERIOR BASIN OF   
ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR THE FORECAST  
TROUGH. WITH A TROUGH POSITION FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER  
THE WESTERN, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. 
 
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA INCLUDING THE  
PANHANDLE AND THE ALEUTIANS RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.  
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS BEHIND OF THE MEAN TROUGH. ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE WEST COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SHORT  
WAVE MOVING NEAR THE COAST.   
 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FASTER EASTWARD SHIFT  
OF THE PATTERNS IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THAT OF 0Z ECMWF.   
 
FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
MARCH 19 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19890210 - 20020302 - 20030208 - 19820207 - 19630308 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19890209 - 20020302 - 19890214 - 20060215 - 19820206 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B      
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B      
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    B    B      
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    N    B      
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B      
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N      
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B      
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    B      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    B      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N      
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    N      
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N      
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N      
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N      
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    A      
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B      
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    B      
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B      
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    N      
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    B      
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    N      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B      
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    B      
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B      
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B      
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B      
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B      
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N      
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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