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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 31 - Sep 04, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 02 - 08, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 25, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU AUGUST 25 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 31 - SEP 04, 2016 
 
TODAY'S 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE  
CONUS THAN FORECASTS ISSUED EARLIER THIS WEEK. A COHERENT WAVE PATTERN IS DEPICTED FROM EAST ASIA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER BOTH THE WEST COAST AND NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF SYSTEM IS GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEIGHTING BASED ON A BETTER TELECONNECTED PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FORECAST TOOLS FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INDICATED NEAR THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE AXIS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS, WHERE ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST. AS THE FORECAST PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT OVER THE WESTERN U.S. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK, THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WELL, WITH ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED OVER THE PLAINS, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, A COOLER SOLUTION THAN WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS DERIVED MAINLY FROM THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF SYSTEMS. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST CONUS NEAR THE FORECAST TROUGH AXIS, EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST, WITH AN EXTENSION SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE GULF COAST. A KEY UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS THE PATH OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE BETWEEN CUBA AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD IMPACT THE GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE, MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BELOW-MEDIAN RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS CENTERED ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND A FORECAST CIRCULATION NOT CONDUCIVE TO MONSOON RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST SUPPORT THIS OUTLOOK. WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE AXIS FORECAST OVER ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, WHILE ABOVE-(BELOW-)MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WEST (EAST) OF THE RIDGE AXIS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS TOOLS, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK OVER THE SOUTHEAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 08 2016 THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND FOR WEEK-2 IS SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIFIED WITH RESPECT TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT WITH NOTABLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY, HOWEVER, WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GEFS.
TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE FORECAST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SEEM TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THIS, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER 500-HPA SKILL SCORES FROM THE ECMWF, LEADS TO THE MANUAL BLEND BEING TILTED HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF, WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER A LARGE REGION OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AS THE VARIOUS TOOLS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT DESPITE THE CIRCULATION DIFFERENCES DISCUSSED ABOVE. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES IS INDICATED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S., HIGHLIGHTING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL INCURSIONS OF CANADIAN AIR MASSES DURING THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, A NOT-UNCOMMON FEATURE OF EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOKS DURING LATE SUMMER AND EARLY AUTUMN. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TIME OUT BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY LINGERS FARTHER NORTH DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS. THE FORECAST SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIPOLE OF FORECAST PROBABILITIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HINTS AT ANOMALOUS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THAT REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS OFFSET BY MODEL DISAGREEMENT AT 500-HPA. FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19510901 - 19530902 - 19890907 - 20080905 - 19930830
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19510901 - 19890905 - 19930830 - 19520804 - 19890816 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 31 - SEP 04, 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 08 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A B UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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