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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 26 - 30, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 28 - Sep 03, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 20, 2018

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON AUGUST 20 2018 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 26 - 30 2018 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST OVER THE  
U.S. THE MANUAL BLEND SHOWS A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA, AN  
AMPLIFIED RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH  
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF  
THE WESTERN CONUS. 
 
THE RIDGE PROJECTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR NORTHEAST MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO  
RELATIVELY COOL LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM CANADA. A FORECAST AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER  
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS  
AND MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. 
 
EXPECTED FRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES. BELOW NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE PARTS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S., UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSISTENT  
WITH DYNAMICAL FORECAST TOOLS. DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS SLIGHTLY FAVOR ABOVE  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, DUE TO A FORECAST TROUGH  
THERE. ABOVE AVERAGE STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY INCREASES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS  
FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA COASTAL REGION AND ALASKA PANHANDLE, DUE TO AN  
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. 
 
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED  
ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 03, 2018  
 
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN  
IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHING IS PREDICTED  
TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE ENHANCED RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER  
THE GULF OF ALASKA, AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. TROUGHING IS FORECAST  
TO CONTINUE OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.  
 
THE RESULTING TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY  
PERIOD, EXCEPT THAT A SHIFT FROM BELOW TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED  
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. 
 
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER  
ALASKA, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MUCH OF STATE, EXCEPT  
SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHERE NEAR  
TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DUE TO ENHANCED RIDGING OVER THE GULF  
OF ALASKA. OVER THE CONUS. THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR  
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NO LONGER FAVORING  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION, AS MOISTURE IS  
FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND THE DEEPENING WESTERN  
TROUGH MAKES FOR UNFAVORABLE MONSOON CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. FORECASTER: Y. FAN NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19720831 - 19970808 - 19950903 - 19770801 - 19550903
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19720830 - 19970808 - 19900730 - 19770801 - 19880730 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 26 - 30 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B B UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A B OHIO A A KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 03, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B UTAH B B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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