|
|
Graphics & Maps (6-10 Day)
Graphics & Maps (8-14 Day)
Verifications
Related Products
HPC: ,
About Us
Contact Us
6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
|
| |
|
|
| |
|
HOME>
Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
|
| |
|
Prognostic Discussions
|
Valid: Aug 26 - 30, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 28 - Sep 03, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 20, 2018 |
|
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON AUGUST 20 2018
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 26 - 30 2018
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST OVER THE
U.S. THE MANUAL BLEND SHOWS A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA, AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE RIDGE PROJECTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR NORTHEAST MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM CANADA. A FORECAST AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS
AND MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS.
EXPECTED FRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S., UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSISTENT
WITH DYNAMICAL FORECAST TOOLS. DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS SLIGHTLY FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, DUE TO A FORECAST TROUGH
THERE. ABOVE AVERAGE STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY INCREASES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA COASTAL REGION AND ALASKA PANHANDLE, DUE TO AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 03, 2018
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN
IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHING IS PREDICTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE ENHANCED RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA, AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. TROUGHING IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE RESULTING TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, EXCEPT THAT A SHIFT FROM BELOW TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
ALASKA, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MUCH OF STATE, EXCEPT
SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHERE NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DUE TO ENHANCED RIDGING OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. OVER THE CONUS. THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NO LONGER FAVORING
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION, AS MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND THE DEEPENING WESTERN
TROUGH MAKES FOR UNFAVORABLE MONSOON CONDITIONS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5 DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS.
FORECASTER: Y. FAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE
OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720831 - 19970808 - 19950903 - 19770801 - 19550903
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720830 - 19970808 - 19900730 - 19770801 - 19880730
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 26 - 30 2018
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B B
UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A B OHIO A A KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 03, 2018
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B
UTAH B B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
|
| |
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion,
Surface Forecasts,
500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
Our Mission,
Who We Are,
CPC Information,
CPC Web Team |
| |
|
|
|
www.nws.noaa.gov 
