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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Apr 28 - May 02, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Apr 30 - May 06, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Apr 22, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE APRIL 22 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 28 - MAY 02, 2014 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE NCEP GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL ENSEMBLE  
MEANS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  
EXTENDING TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE IN CONTRAST FORECASTS A  
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THE OFFICIAL
500-HPA HEIGHT-BLEND FORECAST MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTS THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF THE ECMWF AND NCEP MODELS THAN THE CANADIAN MODEL. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEST AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE EAST. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHERE HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A FORECAST OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MOST LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN MOST REGIONS EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE IMPACT OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA. TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO BE ABOVE MEDIAN IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE ABOVE MEDIAN IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IN THE EAST, DUE TO THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE SOUTHWEST. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND NCEP GEFS ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS, SOME DISAGREEMENT BY THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECAST, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 - MAY 06, 2014 THE ECMWF AND NCEP MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEK-2 FORECAST, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DIFFERS FROM THE CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF AND NCEP GEFS MODELS WERE EQUALLY WEIGHTED TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE WAS NOT USED. UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST IN THE WEEK-2 FORECAST, WHILE THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO PROGRESS OVER THE EASTERN U.S., WHERE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THE LIKELIHOOD THAT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST CONTINUE INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. PROBABILITIES THAT EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HAS INCREASED FOR THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND FLORIDA WITH PREDICTED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THE LIKELIHOOD THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOVE MEDIAN INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD HAS DECREASED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE BELOW MEDIAN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE ABOVE MEDIAN ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND NCEP GEFS ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS, SOME DISAGREEMENT BY THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECAST, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS. FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20070423 - 20000505 - 19910405 - 19690415 - 19900420
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20000505 - 19690414 - 19910406 - 20070424 - 20030409 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 28 - MAY 02, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA B N WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 - MAY 06, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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