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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 03 - 07, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 05 - 11, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 27, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 27 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA 
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A TROUGH IS FORECAST 
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE  
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY  
OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS BELOW NORMAL  
HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED  
OVER THE REST OF THE U.S. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED  
PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, BASED LARGELY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF  
RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE MODEL  
SOLUTIONS RESEMBLE CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST.  
 
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED  
WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING. ELSEWHERE IN THE U.S., ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
FAVORED WHERE HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST  
FAVORED FOR THE GULF COAST STATES, WHERE TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN THE BEST  
AGREEMENT. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AND LOUISIANA. NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PARTS OF  
THE OHIO VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN  
CONUS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST, WHILE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED FOR ALASKA, PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2016 THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT MOST OF THE CONUS HAS VERY LOW MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST FAVORED FOR THE GULF COAST STATES, WHERE TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, WHILE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR EASTERN ALASKA, THE GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS. FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 21
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530621 - 19790621 - 20030707 - 19610615 - 19790611
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530620 - 20060625 - 19790623 - 19960606 - 20070617 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA B A OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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