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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: May 11 - 15, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 13 - 19, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 05, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU MAY 05 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11 - 15 2016 
 
RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE  
PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY  
PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND THE BERING SEA,  
WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CONUS EXTENDING  
NORTHWARD TO EXTREME WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA. COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF  
ENSEMBLE MEANS, THE CANADIAN-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT SOMEWHAT HIGHER  
HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WERE GIVEN THE LOWEST WEIGHTS IN TODAY'S  
BLENDED HEIGHT CHART. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO  
MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE  
SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLENDED  
HEIGHT CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND   
ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO, TENNESSEE AND UPPER AND  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN  
QUARTER OF THE CONUS, ALONG THE GULF COAST, THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS,   
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN  
CONUS TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THE TROUGH ANTICIPATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE EXPECTATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE ROCKIES LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED OVER ALASKA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13 - 19 2016 RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WITH TROUGHS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS, WHILE A
RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA. A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AS WAS TRUE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.  DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD IS DEPICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE EAST PACIFIC. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART DEPICTS WEAK ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALL OF ALASKA, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE AREA PROGGED TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING WEEK-2. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERN JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. UPSLOPE FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATIONS FOR PARTS OF THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST.THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS OFFSET BY RELATIVELY LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, LOW MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 19
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800427 - 19940504 - 19780427 - 20060424 - 19800502
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940503 - 19780427 - 19800429 - 19660506 - 19890508 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11 - 15 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13 - 19 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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