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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Feb 18 - 22, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 20 - 26, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 12, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 12 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 22 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION  
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS  
INDICATE A TROUGH OVER THE BEING SEA/ALEUTIANS, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  
AND EASTERN ALASKA, AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  
A SOUTHERN JET STREAM UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE  
BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS AND  
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY  
INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 
 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF  
THE CONUS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF ARCTIC  
AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE COUNTRY. FOR ALASKA, ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF  
THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE. 
 
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE LARGE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS  
ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH EXPECTED  
OVER THE NORTHEAST, AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TILT THE  
ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  
JET STREAM ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE WESTERN RIDGE TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
ANOMALOUS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTH COASTAL ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE THE  
RIDGE FORECAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN ALASKA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 26 2016 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS (ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), WHILE A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE LEADS TO AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHEASTERN TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. JET ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED TO UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES, THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ALSO AMPLIFY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A COOLER PATTERN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR PRECIPITATION, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. A SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE GREAT LAKES, TENNESSEE, OHIO, AND LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND NORTHEAST CONUS DUE TO THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TOOLS, ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION. FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950203 - 19770218 - 20030124 - 19540207 - 19860127
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950203 - 19770218 - 20030126 - 19540208 - 19910212 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 22 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 26 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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