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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 29 - Nov 02, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 31 - Nov 06, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 23, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 23 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 02, 2014 
 
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IS EVIDENT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS OVER ALASKA AND THE  
NORTH PACIFIC EVEN AT RELATIVELY EARLY LEAD TIMES. BY THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,  
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BOTH  
IN PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF THE PREDICTED LONG WAVES. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN  
PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERNS ARE FAIRLY COMMON IN AUTUMN, AS THE WESTERLIES  
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SOUTH, AND AS WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS GET CAUGHT UP INTO  
THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION WELL UPSTREAM OF THE U.S. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO  
PREDICT THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE  
MEAN FLOW. CONSIDERING THIS, SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TODAY'S RUNS  
AND YESTERDAY'S RUNS, AND MAINTAINING REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY'S  
FORECAST, A LOW-AMPLITUDE FORECAST FLOW PATTERN IS THOUGHT TO BE APPROPRIATE IN  
THIS CASE. SOMEWHAT HIGHER WEIGHTS IN THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND WERE GIVEN TO  
THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH HAVE PROVIDED  
SUPERIOR ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS. THE OFFICIAL  
HEIGHT FORECAST FAVORS A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST, A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE  
OHIO VALLEY, AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. IN ALASKA, CYCLONIC  
CURVATURE IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE, AND  
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE. 
 
THE MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. THE 500-HPA TROUGH EXPECTED  
NEAR THE WEST COAST INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, EXTENDING TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. MOST OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH  
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHERE  
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH INTO THE REGION.   
 
SOUTHWEST 500-HPA FLOW OVER MOST OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION,  
WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE  
PANHANDLE, UNDER NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND  
THE ANTICIPATION OF AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET STREAM FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA TO  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR CALIFORNIA IS BASED MORE  
HEAVILY ON THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH IS FAVORED OVER THE GFS AT  
SHORTER TIME RANGES. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT, THE FAVORED AREA OF ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELOW-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION, DUE TO THE EXPECTED INFLUENCE  
OF LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA, DUE TO STALLED FRONTS OR PERHAPS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE  
YUCATAN REGION.  
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40%  
OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,  
DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN CANADIAN, ECMWF, AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND THE  
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 31 - NOV 06, 2014  
 
THE WEEK-2 FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN IS ALSO VERY UNCERTAIN OVER THE  
PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA REGION, AS IT WAS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z  
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION DEPICTS A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WEST, WITH  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT, ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE OTHER  
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE  
DETERMINISTIC 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS ANTICIPATE AN AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN, WITH  
DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, AND A  
RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL STATES. ONCE AGAIN, WITH SUCH WIDELY VARYING
500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS DEPICTED TODAY FROM ALL THE MODELS AND TOOLS, IT WAS DECIDED TO LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 2-METER TEMPERATURES, GO WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN, AND MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY'S OFFICIAL WEEK-2 FORECAST. MAINTAINING CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST EFFECTIVELY PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S RUNS, WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE WIDELY VARYING GUIDANCE TODAY. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: WELL BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5, DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED HEIGHTS, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 20
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20051028 - 19541019 - 19841010 - 19641101 - 19831103
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20051027 - 19841009 - 19541018 - 19621002 - 19831102 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 02, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 31 - NOV 06, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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