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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: May 08 - 12, 2013 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 10 - 16, 2013 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 02, 2013 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 02 2013
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 08 - 12 2013
MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIR TODAY, WITH MORE VARIABILITY THAN THE MODELS EXHIBITED
YESTERDAY. GFS-BASED MODEL SOLUTIONS, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS,
DEPICT ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS, WHILE THE EUROPEAN CENTER AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA MODELS DEPICT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. YESTERDAY'S 12Z AND 18Z GFS DEPICTIONS INCLUDED THE
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER, FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE EAST COAST.
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO DEPICTED OVER ALASKA IN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT IN THE MANUAL
BLEND AS THAT MODEL HAS THE BEST PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS AND ALIGNS
WELL WITH THE HISTORICAL RECORD. YESTERDAY'S 12Z DETERMINISTIC EUROPEAN
SOLUTION HAS THE HIGHEST ANALOG CORRELATION, SO IT WAS INCLUDED IN THE BLEND.
THAT MODEL CONTAINS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, SUGGESTING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT FAVORED
WHEN COMPARED TO THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE MANUAL BLEND, AS THAT MODEL SOLUTION HAS
MORE INDICATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAN THE 06Z GFS SOLUTION.
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SAME RIDGE ENHANCES THE ODDS FOR
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST. ANOMALOUS
EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORTS ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THAT REGION ALSO SUPPORTING ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND
40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: YESTERDAY'S 12 EUROPEAN MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AND SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 10 - 16 2013
MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK REMAINS FAIR, WITH THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE, DEPICTING
A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE OTHER GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTENDING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, YESTERDAY'S 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM THE EUROPEAN
CENTER WAS GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT, AS THAT MODEL HAS THE BEST PERFORMANCE DURING
THE PAST 60 DAYS AND THE CURRENT SOLUTION HAS THE HIGHEST ANALOG CORRELATION
SCORE AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE
SECOND HIGHEST ANALOG CORRELATION SCORE AND THAT MODEL IS INCLUDED IN THE
MANUAL BLEND. THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS
WERE ALSO INCLUDED TO GIVE MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AS
THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE TROUGH HAD GENERALLY HIGHER ANALOG CORRELATION SCORES,
SUGGESTING THAT IS A LIKELY STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE 500-HPA AND THE SURFACE FORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT ENHANCED ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST, WITH AREAS OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM, WITH SOME CONNECTIONS TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA, RESULTS IN ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SAME ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD, AND POTENTIALLY
SEED SOME STORMS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 10.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AND THE AVAILABLE TOOLS, WITH NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
16
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19730420 - 19900429 - 19860514 - 19660422 - 19610412
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19730420 - 19900428 - 19660421 - 19860514 - 19820505
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 08 - 12 2013
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 10 - 16 2013
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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