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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Nov 30 - Dec 04, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 02 - 08, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Nov 24, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST MON NOVEMBER 24 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 30 - DEC 04, 2014 
 
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S MODEL FORECASTS OF THE 6-10 DAY MEAN  
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST. STRONG ZONAL 500-HPA FLOW IS FORECAST JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER, CUTTING OFF COLD AIR FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER WEST-CENTRAL CANADA ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL, SETTING UP A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXPECTED COLD AIR OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA, EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALASKA AND RELATIVE MILD AIR OVER THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LEAD TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST MODELS PREDICT RELATIVELY MILD AIR OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AS WELL, IN SPITE OF THE FORECAST FOR NEAR- TO BELOW- NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH. A SHARP GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BORDER MAKES FOR UNCERTAIN CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, WHERE ANY UNFORESEEN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION MAY ALLOW COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR INTERIOR EASTERN ALASKA UNDER BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, ALTHOUGH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY FAVORED NEAR THE COASTS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE ALEUTIANS WHERE ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RE-EMERGED IN RECENT WEEKS. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC LEAD TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. EXPECTED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500-HPA SHOULD OPEN MUCH OF THE EAST TO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, ENHANCING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. A RELATIVELY NARROW REGION OF NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY IN ZONAL FLOW MAY REDUCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE GFS FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN MUCH OF ALASKA EXCEPT FOR IN THE ALEUTIANS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: 06Z GEFS MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE EAST, BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF COLD AIR IN THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WEST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 02 - 08 2014 MODELS FORECASTS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND SHOW SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE ANOMALIES JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MODELS ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A BROAD, SHALLOW TROUGH IS FORECAST IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS MOSTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECTED ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW KEEPS COLD AIR TRAPPED IN CENTRAL CANADA, ALTHOUGH, AS IN THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
TELECONNECTIONS ON THE STRONG NEW ENGLAND RIDGE SUGGEST MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FLOW, SUGGESTING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD IN ZONAL FLOW. THE CONTRAST IN THESE TWO INDICATORS SUGGEST UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN PREDICTED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.  THE REGION OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVES FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT PLAINS BETWEEN THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, BUT A WITH AN ANTICIPATED SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES MAKING CONDITIONS UNCERTAIN NEAR THE EXPECTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH POSITION. FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19681126 - 19891127 - 19771127 - 19571109 - 19801120
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19681125 - 19771126 - 19821126 - 19801121 - 19581104 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 30 - DEC 04, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR DEC 02 - 08 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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