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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 03 - 07, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 05 - 11, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 28, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON JULY 28 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2014 
 
TODAY'S GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE IN EXCELLENT  
AGREEMENT ON THE 6-10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY.  
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A PERSISTING LONG-WAVE 500-HPA PATTERN OF AN  
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND  
EXTENDING TO THE GULF COAST NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN AMPLIFIED  
RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO WEST-CENTRAL CANADA. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, HOWEVER, MUCH OF ALASKA IS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH, WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. THE CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS NEAR THE ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROUGH. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF AN EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHERE PRECIPITATION MAY HELP SUPPRESS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FAR WESTERN CONUS NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IS EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  MEAN TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA ARE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  TOOLS BASED ON UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE THOSE BASED ON LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MODELS FAVOR WARM CONDITIONS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA NEAR A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN PARTS OF EASTERN ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AN EXPECTED MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GULF COAST AND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BEHIND THE MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY, COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR FOR THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS. NAEFS AND THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED TROUGH, WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 6Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S MODELS AND TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2014 THE ANOMALY PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. A SUBSTANTIAL FRACTION OF MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROUGH, WITH MOST MEMBERS RELAXING THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN RIDGE, LEADING TO A DISTINCTLY LOWER AMPLITUDE IN THE PREDICTED 8-10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN WHEN COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER ALASKA IS SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGED BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS, WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD VIRTUALLY ABSENT IN THE WEEK-TWO FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE CONUS FOR WEEK-TWO IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR ANOMALIES REFLECTING THE GREATER SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS AND THE EXPECTED LOWER AMPLITUDE
FLOW PATTERN. TOOLS GENERALLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WITH NEAR TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED AS THE CHANCES OF TROUGH OVER GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 21
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620721 - 20080808 - 19670711 - 19890717 - 19650726
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19620722 - 19600708 - 19670710 - 20080808 - 19650725 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING B A UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING B A UTAH N A ARIZONA A A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A B MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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