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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 27 - 31, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 29 - Sep 04, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 21, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU AUGUST 21 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 27 - 31 2014 
 
TODAY’S MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE  
6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS AGREE ON POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER  
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE  
WESTERN CONUS. THESE ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN WEAKER IN RECENT ENSEMBLE RUNS,  
HOWEVER, INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN, AS  
THESE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN PERSISTING FOR WEEKS. A BROAD TROUGH  
IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXPECTED  
OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA. THESE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE ALSO BEEN WEAKER  
IN RECENT FORECASTS. OVERALL THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA  
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. TODAY’S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT  
BLEND FAVORS THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE, WHICH HAS HAD MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. RECENT DETERMINSTIC GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT OVER TIME, SO THEY WERE LESS FAVORED IN TODAY’S
BLEND. THE ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. FORECAST PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BECAUSE OF THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. ALL FORECAST TOOLS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH A MEAN FRONTAL POSITION FORECAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED SOUTH OF THE FRONT, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHEAST, AND EASTERN U.S. WHILE THE EXTRATROPICAL PATTERN IS GENERALLY WELL AGREED UPON, MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED BY TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE EASTERN U.S., ENHANCING THE ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF COAST, FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND SOUTHWEST COAST, THOUGH THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS FOLLOWS FROM THE FORECAST EXTRATROPICAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES, ABOVE-MEDIAN (BELOW-MEDIAN) PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS (OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST). TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY DUE TO EXPECTED TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY THAT COULD IMPACT PARTS OF THE CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 29 - SEP 04, 2014 THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH SOME RETROGRESSION IS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH IS NOW FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST, AS OPPOSED TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKIES. THE REST OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN. THE TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. IN ALASKA, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASINGLY FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. WITH A MORE ZONAL PATTERN, A LARGER AREA OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INCREASED CHANCES FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT THE PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MONSOON ACTIVITY, ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THERE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE FORECAST PATTERN, RECENTLY POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE, AND UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TROPICAL ACTIVITY. FORECASTER: MIKE CHARLES NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800819 - 20080901 - 20020809 - 19870810 - 19640820
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800819 - 20080831 - 19870812 - 19560830 - 19810903 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 27 - 31 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B B NEVADA A N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 29 - SEP 04, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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