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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Jun 01 - 05, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 03 - 09, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 26, 2017 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2017
RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THE SOUTHWEST,
AND NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER WEST-CENTRAL CANADA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI
CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN LOWER 48
STATES, MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND LARGE SPREAD OVER
ALASKA. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS WELL AS MOST OF ALASKA,
WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN.
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL SSTS
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE SOUTHWEST ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
UNDERNEATH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE TROUGH NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA TILTS THE
ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2017
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN DUE, IN PART, TO DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WEAK
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST, AND OVER
THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS INDICATED OVER
PARTS OF MAINLAND ALASKA. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN AND THERE ARE LARGE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS. FOR THIS REASON, THE WEEK-2 MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND
CONSISTS ENTIRELY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS AS WELL AS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO INDICATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH GEFS
REFORECAST GUIDANCE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ANTICIPATED ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS EXTENDING TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDERNEATH ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19660519 - 19660512 - 19850516 - 19520518 - 20030510
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19660516 - 19850515 - 19520517 - 19820605 - 19660511
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2017
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2017
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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