|
|
Graphics & Maps (6-10 Day)
Graphics & Maps (8-14 Day)
Verifications
Related Products
HPC: ,
About Us
Contact Us
6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
|
| |
|
|
| |
|
HOME>
Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
|
| |
|
Prognostic Discussions
|
Valid: Oct 29 - Nov 02, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 31 - Nov 06, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 23, 2018 |
|
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE OCTOBER 23 2018
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 02, 2018
A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE EAST LIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED BY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS. AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO
TAKE PLACE BY DAY-10 WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS, IN ADDITION TO A RIDGE STRENGTHENING OFF
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, POSSIBLY EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH MAINLAND
ALASKA. SOLUTIONS FROM TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 06 GEFS BOTH SUPPORT THIS
EVOLUTION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MODERATION FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WHICH IS INITIALLY FORECAST TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE, BUT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FAVORED AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS TELECONNECTS WELL WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA WHICH IS PROJECTED TO HAVE
PREDOMINATELY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDING INTO NEVADA. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN THE ESTABLISHED RIDGE AND FAVOR HEIGHTENED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AS THIS NEW TROUGH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE WESTERN
CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE DETERMINISTIC 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH, WHICH FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. HOWEVER,
EXCEPTIONS ARE PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE BERING SEA, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES OFFSET BY
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 31 - NOV 06, 2018
THE DEVELOPING 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOME
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY IN WEEK-2 FOR THE NORTHEAST, AN OVERALL TRANSITION TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING WESTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OF NOTE IS THAT TODAY'S 12Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THAN THE 06Z GEFS AND
THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE, EXTENDING IT FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING WEEK-2, WHICH
WOULD SCALE BACK THE EXTENT OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES IN
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL INITIALLY FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR THE WEST
COAST EXTENDING INTO ALASKA. THESE FEATURES ARE PROJECTED TO FLATTEN OUT LATER
IN THE PERIOD, WITH WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER ALASKA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. AS A TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, A
BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WITH A STORM TRACK OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SUPPORTS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FRONTAL ACTIVITY WOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
FARTHER EAST. TELECONNECTION WITH THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH SUPPORTS ENHANCED
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE EASTERN CONUS. AS THE RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS, AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS FAVORED OVER ALASKA
RESULTING IN ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 50% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION IN WEEK-2
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE
OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19651026 - 19801030 - 19981022 - 19871106 - 19521018
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19801030 - 19521104 - 19651025 - 20021103 - 19621025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 02, 2018
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 31 - NOV 06, 2018
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
|
| |
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion,
Surface Forecasts,
500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
Our Mission,
Who We Are,
CPC Information,
CPC Web Team |
| |
|
|
|
www.nws.noaa.gov 
