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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Apr 30 - May 04, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 02 - 08, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Apr 24, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON APRIL 24 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 - MAY 04, 2017 
 
TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS  
ARE PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE BERING SEA, WHILE RIDGES ARE  
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD  
TO WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA. THE GFS 6Z ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER  
AS IT DEPICTS THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH SHEARING APART AND DEAMPLIFYING. ENSEMBLE  
SPREAD IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY'S OFFICIAL  
500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THE WESTERN CONUS, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MUCH OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL CONUS. ANOMALOUS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER 48 STATES. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA ENHANCE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHILE RIDGING FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 02 - 08 2017 COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFIED DURING WEEK-2. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS, WHILE A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN CANADA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY'S WEEK-2 BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF A PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN, THE EXPECTED AREAS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FOR WEEK-2 ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXCEPT DISPLACED EASTWARD. A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING WEEK 2 AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECASTER: RANDY S NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20090502 - 19930424 - 19810415 - 19510422 - 19740501
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20090501 - 19940404 - 19930423 - 20000412 - 19510422 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 - MAY 04, 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B B NEVADA N B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 02 - 08 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH N B ARIZONA A N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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