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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 08 - 12, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 10 - 16, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 02, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT WED SEPTEMBER 02 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 08 - 12 2015 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA  
FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM  
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN FORECAST TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA OR WESTERN  
ALASKA. A LOW AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS  
WITH A BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF  
THE NATION. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CONUS  
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLE  
SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN   
MOSTLY RELATED TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW EXPECTED OVER  
THE NORTHERN U.S. THE SPREAD IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED  
WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC RECURVING AND ENTERING THE MID-LATITUDES  
DURING THE PERIOD. TODAY'S HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS VERY SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES  
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHLY ABOVE  
NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN, AND MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES  
ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF ALASKA EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE  
AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WHERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. 
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE  
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND  
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO WEAK ANOMALOUS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE RIDGE  
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CREATES HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION.  
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR MUCH  
OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE  
ALEUTIANS. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
ENHANCED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS DUE IN PART TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS  
CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN ADJACENT WATERS.  
 
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE   
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECCTED OVER THESE  
REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE  
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW  
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.   
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF  
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON  
DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND  
MODERATE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 10 - 16 2015  
 
TODAY'S WEEK-TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY EXHIBIT LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY  
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A  
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. ELSEWHERE, TIMING  
DIFFERENCES AMONG ENEMBLE MEMBERS LEADS TO RELATIVLY LARGE SPREAD. THE TROUGH  
PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE SUB-TROPICAL  
RIDGE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AGREEMENT IS SOMEWHAT BETTER OVER ALASKA, AS MOST  
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE IN FORECASTING A TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN PART OF THE  
STATE AND A RIDGE NEAR THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE BLENDED  
HEIGHT CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS  
AND MUCH OF ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED  
ELSEWHERE. 
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS DUE TO THE TROUGH ANTICIPATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.  
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE EAST  
COAST, SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE (DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY  
FLOW), ALONG THE GULF COAST (DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES) AND  
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS). BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND  
WEAK ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. 
 
THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN QUARTER AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE  
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN  
ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA/WESTERN  
ALASKA. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS  
CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE  
ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED  
ON DAY 10  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY. 
 
FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
SEPTEMBER 17 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19600830 - 19830907 - 19520906 - 20040916 - 19950815 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20040915 - 19600901 - 19830907 - 19950816 - 19520908 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 08 - 12 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B      
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   B    B     WYOMING     N    B      
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  N    N      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 10 - 16 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   B    B     WYOMING     B    B      
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    N      
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    N    N      
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    N      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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