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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 23 - 27, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 25 - Oct 01, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 17, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT WED SEPTEMBER 17 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 23 - 27 2014 
 
THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF 6-10 DAY  
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. MODELS AGREE ON THE PREDICTION OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC, SOUTH OF ALASKA. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE FEATURES, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. THEREFORE, TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST COAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DUE TO A POTENTIAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION. THE ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED FOR THE ALEUTIANS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ADJACENT WATERS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PREDICTED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDWEST AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. THE PREDICTED WESTERN RIDGE ENHANCES CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA BEHIND THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS OFFSET BY LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - OCT 01, 2014 DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY'S MODEL ENSEMBLES EXHIBIT HIGH SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN INDICATING HIGH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER ALASKA. RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DUE, IN PART, TO LARGE VARIATIONS AMONG THE COMPONENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING AVERAGED TOGETHER. THE 0Z AND 6Z DETERMINISTIC GFS PREDICT MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERNS THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OR EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER, RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS POOR AS THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND PREDICTS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, TODAY'S WEEK TWO MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH PREDICTED NEAR TO POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE MANUAL BLEND. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST AND NAEFS GUIDANCE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN INCREASES IN ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE FAR WEST UNDERNEATH PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA BEHIND A PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5, DUE TO HIGH SPREAD AMONG TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND POOR CONTINUITY BETWEEN TODAY'S AND YESTERDAY'S FORECAST TOOLS FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19550910 - 20080916 - 19730916 - 19790920 - 19950911
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19550910 - 19790918 - 19840930 - 19950911 - 20080917 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 23 - 27 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - OCT 01, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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