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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: May 31 - Jun 04, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 02 - 08, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 25, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2015 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION  
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN  
ALEUTIANS AND A RIDGE IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF  
ALASKA. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, A BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER  
THE PACIFIC AND A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW IS PREDICTED BY MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE  
CONUS. AS A RESULT, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE  
COUNTRY. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AND BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL  
AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN  
MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED  
RIDGING. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED  
FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM  
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALSO DUE TO  
SOIL MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF THE  
PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH AXIS. 
 
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE  
EASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MEAN TROUGH PREDICTED  
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED  
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONSISTENT WITH  
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. CONVERSELY,  
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED  
RIDGING. 
 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF  
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND SURFACE TOOLS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2015  
 
DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR TO THAT  
PREDICTED DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE  
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE  
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE NEAR NORMAL  
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. ENSEMBLE  
SPREAD IS MODERATELY HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN INDICATING MODEL  
DIFFERENCES IN RESOLVING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL FLOW  
PATTERN. TODAY'S WEEK TWO MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE  
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH THE GREATEST WEIGHTS GIVEN TO TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF AND  
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
FORECAST LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW AND PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS.  
HOWEVER, THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE, IN PART, TO SOIL MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS.  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
PREDICTED RIDGING.   
 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT  
WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION ARE WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO CONFLICTING GUIDANCE  
FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES, WHICH PREDICT A RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN. NEAR TO  
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
PREDICTED RIDGING. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH  
OF THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11,  
10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED  
ON DAY 10  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY DISAGREEMENTS  
AMONG THE SURFACE TOOLS (PARTICULARLY FOR PRECIPITATION). 
 
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JUNE 18 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19710605 - 19690608 - 19900507 - 19890603 - 20080526 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19900506 - 19890602 - 19710604 - 20030607 - 20080526 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    N      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    N      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        N    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    B      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N      
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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