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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Mar 01 - 05, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Mar 03 - 09, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 23, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 23 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 05 2017 
 
TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. A BLOCKING PATTERN IS  
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER  
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TODAY'S 500-HPA HEIGHT  
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE GREATEST WEIGHT FOR THE BLENDED HEIGHT FORECAST WAS GIVEN TO THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION BASED ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND STRONG 500-HPA SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS AN ASSOCIATED ACTIVE STORM TRACK FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONUS, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE SOUTHWEST, AND CALIFORNIA, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODES. THE FORECAST BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER ALASKA, WHICH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER ALASKA. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 03 - 09 2017 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS INDICATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THERE IS A BIG CHANGE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST PATTERN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MOST OF TODAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHICH CONFLICTS WITH YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AS WELL AS ALASKA, WHILE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM GFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. PREDICTED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO STATES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN IS INDICATED FOR MOST OF CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND PART OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A BIG CHANGE OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MARCH 16
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19900309 - 19510219 - 19960223 - 19810225 - 19690223
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19960224 - 19810224 - 20060308 - 19900308 - 19510222 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 05 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAR 03 - 09 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B A NEVADA A B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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