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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Nov 26 - 30, 2009 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Nov 28 - Dec 04, 2009 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Nov 20, 2009 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST FRI NOVEMBER 20 2009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - 30 2009
TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED MEAN 500 HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN
AGREEMENT FORECASTING A STRONGER RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND
DEPICT A WEAKER RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A DEEPER TROUGH OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST US COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE LATEST
EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER WITH
YESTERDAYS 12Z FORECASTING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN AND TODAYS 0Z DEPICTING
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, WHILE THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.
TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, A RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST IN THE NORTHWEST, ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF CONUS AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NEAR AVERAGE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST
US. BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND ABOVE AVERAGE
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMAILES ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ARE
FORECAST FOR THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS UNDERNEATH POSITIVE
FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ARE
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN US UNDERNEATH FORECAST NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
FOR THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EXIST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION TO
NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE FORECAST TROUGH AND ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN COAST
AND PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE FORECAST TROUGH. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS
SUGGEST BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN EASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: YESTERDAYS 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5,
DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES BUT DIFFERENCES IN SOME
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND,
NAEFS, AND CDC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG FROM THE MANUAL BLEND
AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, NAEFS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND CDC
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, AND INSPECTION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
FROM THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
NOTE: PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NORMALLY RECEIVE ZERO PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR. IN SUCH AREAS, PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE GIVEN IN ONLY EITHER
THE "NORMAL" OR THE "ABOVE" CATEGORIES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 04, 2009
TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED MEAN 500 HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH CANADIAN ENSEMBLE DEPICT A DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US COMPARED TO THE GFS BASED ENSEMBLES. THE GFS
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SHOW LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER NORTH
AMERICA DEPICTING EITHER A RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OR AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CONUS, WHILE YESTERDAY SEVERAL MODELS WERE
FORECASTING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
THE CURRENT MJO ACTIVITY ALSO ADDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE WEEK-2
FORECAST. SOME OF THE RECENT TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE MJO. THIS MJO ACTIVITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WET
CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH CONFLICTS WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE REGION. TODAYS FORECAST TOOLS SHOW LESS SUPPORT THAN YESTERDAY FOR
ENHANCED PROBABILITES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST SO THE
AREA DEPICTING ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS.
THE FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR AS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
TODAYS BLEND CHART IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BUT THE TROUGH OVER THE
CONUS IS SHIFTED EASTWARD, AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE 4 CORNERS
REGION TO THE EAST COAST US BENEATH THE TROUGH, WHILE GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST
RIDGE. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
BENEATH FORECAST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA, THE ROCKIES,
AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST ALONG THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS DUE TO POSSIBLE
MJO INFLUENCES. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST STATES, AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST
UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST TROUGH AND FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA COAST AND ALASKAN
PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM
THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, CDC, AND NAEFS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, CDC, AND
NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: SARAH MARQUARDT
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 17
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19771109 - 19771031 - 19671204 - 19521202 - 19751108
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19771108 - 19771030 - 19621128 - 19811030 - 19751107
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - 30 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 04, 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B
UTAH B B ARIZONA B N COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N
MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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