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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 22 - 26, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 24 - 30, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 16, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON OCTOBER 16 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 22 - 26 2017 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN  
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A DEEP CLOSED 500-HPA  
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA, WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO HAWAII. DOWNSTREAM A STRONG RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. TODAYíS 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND FEATURES NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALL OF ALASKA, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE REST OF THE U.S., EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA DUE TO A DEEP TROUGH PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF ALASKA. A STRONG RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HIGHLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S., EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF TEXAS WHERE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AFTER AN EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE PERIOD. STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER PARTS OF ALASKA, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKA COAST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE WESTERN
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTAIN THE SYSTEMS TO JUST THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITHIN THE CONUS, FAVORING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED IN THE EASTERN U.S. INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 50% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 50% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME LARGE-SCALE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 24 - 30 2017 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY, AND THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. THE TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE. THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE SIMILAR TO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS. AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE, ITíS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, SHIFTING THE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE APPALACHIANS AND EASTWARD BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE GREAT LAKES, PERSISTING THE AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TOOLS, ESPECIALLY DUE TO A TEMPERATURE TRANSITION IN THE EASTERN U.S. FORECASTER: MIKE C NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 19
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19901008 - 20070926 - 20011020 - 19891012 - 19811025
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19901009 - 20050926 - 19811025 - 20011019 - 19851012 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 22 - 26 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 24 - 30 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA B B OHIO N N KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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