Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 and 8-14 Day Prognostic Discussions

Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Wed June 04 2025 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 14 2025 
 
Today's ensemble mean solutions depict a transitional pattern across much of   
the nation during the 6-10 Day period. A significant pattern change is noted in  
the daily model output across much of the CONUS. Moderately strong ridging  
early in the period over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to break down as a  
trough initially over Southeast Alaska progresses southward along the west  
coast of North America. Downstream, a trough near the Great Lakes is forecast  
to weaken significantly by the middle of the period. In its place, a ridge is  
forecast to rapidly develop soon thereafter, spreading westward into the  
north-central CONUS. The pattern is forecast to be more stable across much of  
Alaska, with a strong ridge persisting near the eastern Aleutians for the  
duration of the period. Heights are slowly forecast to rise across Hawaii as a  
trough north of the state early in the period dissipates. The manual height  
blend, which favors the ECMWF ensemble mean, is consistent with a transitional  
pattern. 
  
Above normal temperatures are likely across the West (especially interior   
locations) as strong ridging dominates early in the period. Downstream  
troughing over the east-central CONUS early in the period leads to a tilt  
toward below normal temperatures for the south-central CONUS extending into the  
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Above normal temperatures are likely for the Gulf  
Coast and the Florida Peninsula to the south of a mean frontal boundary. A tilt  
toward above normal temperatures is also depicted along the East Coast, ahead  
of the predicted trough over the Midwest early in the period coupled with  
anticipated rising heights later in the period. A colder than normal pattern is  
most likely across most of Alaska associated with anomalous troughing over the  
eastern part of the state, particularly early in the period. However, above  
normal temperatures are forecast over the Aleutians in close proximity to a  
strong mid-level ridge. Above normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii  
associated with warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the adjacent  
Pacific. 
 
An active pattern is anticipated for the south-central and southeastern CONUS   
westward to the Southern and Central Rockies and northward along the Eastern   
Seaboard and Great Lakes near the periphery of a trough forecast over the  
east-central CONUS early in the period. Probabilities of above normal  
precipitation exceed 50 percent over much of southern Texas due to anticipated 
enhanced moisture flow from the Gulf. Enhanced above normal precipitation  
chances extend northward to the Great Lakes region associated with a predicted  
surface low. In the Pacific Northwest, near to slightly below normal  
precipitation is favored as a weakening ridge transitions towards a trough. A  
tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for most of the South Coast  
of Alaska associated with upstream ridging predicted near the eastern  
Aleutians. Above normal precipitation is more likely for the northern third of  
the state due to predicted increased moisture flow around the northern crest of  
the ridge. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for Hawaii with a  
trough predicted near the state early in the period. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below Average, 2 out of 5, due to  
a transitional pattern forecast in daily model output. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 18 2025  
 
The week-2 500-hPa pattern features increasing heights east of the Rockies and   
slightly decreasing heights west of the Rockies associated with a transitional  
pattern. Strong ridging is forecast to persist near the eastern Aleutians.  
Farther to the south, the period begins with near normal heights across the  
West and above normal heights across the northern half of the CONUS.  
Thereafter, the trough along the West Coast is forecast to deepen by Day 9-10  
with corresponding height rises predicted across much of the central and  
eastern CONUS. Near normal heights are generally forecast for Hawaii in the  
seven day mean 500-hPa pattern. 
 
With 500-hPa heights forecast to rise for many areas east of the Rockies, above  
normal temperatures are favored for most of the CONUS. Probabilities of above  
normal temperatures exceed 50 percent from the Central Rockies to the Upper 
Mississippi Valley. Slightly reduced mid-level heights and increased cloudiness  
favor near to slightly above normal temperatures across much of the  
southeastern quarter of the CONUS. Near to below normal temperatures are  
favored for the West Coast and adjacent areas as a trough is forecast to deepen  
fairly early in the period. Near to below normal temperatures are also favored  
for most of Alaska under weak troughing and northerly anomalous flow. Above  
normal temperatures are confined to parts of the Aleutians, the Alaska  
Peninsula, and southwest portions of the Mainland in proximity to a strong  
mid-level ridge. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due in  
part to above normal sea surface temperatures in the adjacent Pacific. 
 
Above normal precipitation is favored for most of the southeastern, central, and 
northwestern CONUS due to the potential for increased moisture flow from the   
Gulf and in advance of a mid-level trough along the Pacific coast. Maximum odds  
of 50-60 percent are focused over the western Gulf Coast region. Drier than  
normal conditions are favored for the Northeast, consistent with  
teleconnections from a predicted mean positive height anomaly center upstream  
over the western Great Lakes. Ridging centered near the eastern Aleutians  
slightly favors a dry pattern for much of the South Coast of Alaska. Above  
normal precipitation is more likely across the Aleutians, and much of the  
western and northern Mainland, consistent with teleconnections from the  
predicted location of the positive height anomaly center associated with the  
ridge just south of the eastern Aleutians. Enhanced above normal precipitation  
probabilities are forecast to persist across Hawaii, consistent with a  
consolidation of calibrated precipitation amounts from the GEFS and ECMWF  
ensembles. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 0z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  
Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to  
a predicted transitional pattern. 
 
 
FORECASTER: Anthony A 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
June 19. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19980612 - 19510617 - 19990529 - 19550531 - 19780615 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
19980612 - 19510617 - 19990529 - 19550601 - 20000617 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 10 - 14 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    B    N      
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    N      
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    B    N      
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     N    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A      
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jun 12 - 18 2025 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    N      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     N    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    B    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
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