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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR JULY 2008
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2008 THROUGH THE END OF MAY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 5.77 INCHES (33 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 1.44 INCHES (16 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 2.56 INCHES (23 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 68.52 INCHES (128 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR JULY 2008. |
| TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | HILO | B40 | 76.0 | 0.5 | | B40 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 11.2 | | KAHULUI | B40 | 78.9 | 0.6 | | B40 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | | HONOLULU | B40 | 80.8 | 0.5 | | B40 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | | LIHUE | B40 | 78.9 | 0.4 | | B40 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR JAS 2008 TO JAS 2009 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. NOW WE ARE IN A TRANSITION FROM LA NINA TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WEAKENED. POSITIVE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES REFLECTED THE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT THERMOCLINE DEPTH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - WHILE CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND ENHANCED OVER THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. A MAJORITY OF THE RECENT DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL SST FORECASTS FOR THE NINO 3.4 REGION INDICATE A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING JUNE - AUGUST 2008. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR - THE MAJORITY OF MODELS REFLECT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER - THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO OND 2008. MODELS ALSO PREDICT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO SON 2008. |
| HILO | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JAS 2008 | B40 | 76.3 | 0.4 | | B45 | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 | | ASO 2008 | B40 | 76.2 | 0.4 | | B45 | 23.4 | 27.0 | 31.0 | | SON 2008 | B40 | 75.5 | 0.4 | | B45 | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 | | OND 2008 | B40 | 74.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 26.1 | 33.1 | 41.3 | | NDJ 2008 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.5 | 32.9 | 41.7 | | DJF 2008 | EC | 72.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 20.1 | 27.2 | 35.9 | | JFM 2009 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.9 | 30.9 | 39.4 | | FMA 2009 | EC | 72.1 | 0.4 | | EC | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 | | MAM 2009 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 28.3 | 34.9 | 42.6 | | AMJ 2009 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.0 | 26.8 | 32.2 | | MJJ 2009 | EC | 75.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.8 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.5 | 24.2 | 29.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 |
| KAHULUI | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JAS 2008 | B40 | 79.1 | 0.5 | | B45 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | | ASO 2008 | B40 | 78.9 | 0.5 | | B45 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | | SON 2008 | B40 | 77.8 | 0.5 | | B45 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | | OND 2008 | B40 | 75.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | | NDJ 2008 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2008 | EC | 72.5 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.7 | | JFM 2009 | EC | 72.4 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | | FMA 2009 | EC | 73.2 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 | | MAM 2009 | EC | 74.4 | 0.6 | | EC | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 | | AMJ 2009 | EC | 75.8 | 0.6 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | | MJJ 2009 | EC | 77.3 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 78.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 79.1 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| HONOLULU | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JAS 2008 | B40 | 81.2 | 0.4 | | B45 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | | ASO 2008 | B40 | 81.0 | 0.5 | | B45 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.8 | | SON 2008 | B40 | 79.6 | 0.5 | | B45 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 | | OND 2008 | B40 | 77.3 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.5 | 6.2 | 8.4 | | NDJ 2008 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2008 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | | JFM 2009 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | | FMA 2009 | EC | 74.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 | | MAM 2009 | EC | 76.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | | AMJ 2009 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | | MJJ 2009 | EC | 79.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 80.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 81.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| LIHUE | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JAS 2008 | B40 | 79.3 | 0.3 | | B45 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 | | ASO 2008 | B40 | 79.0 | 0.3 | | B45 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 | | SON 2008 | B40 | 77.7 | 0.3 | | B45 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | | OND 2008 | B40 | 75.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 10.7 | 13.3 | 16.2 | | NDJ 2008 | EC | 73.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.8 | 12.5 | 15.8 | | DJF 2008 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.6 | 11.4 | 14.7 | | JFM 2009 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.0 | 10.8 | 14.1 | | FMA 2009 | EC | 73.1 | 0.4 | | EC | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 | | MAM 2009 | EC | 74.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 7.3 | 9.2 | 11.4 | | AMJ 2009 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.3 | 7.0 | 9.0 | | MJJ 2009 | EC | 77.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 78.8 | 0.3 | | EC | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 79.3 | 0.3 | | EC | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 17, 2008
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