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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2016



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN ZERO AND POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C.

FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF JUNE 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 7.51 INCHES (43 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 4.23 INCHES (54 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.09 INCHES (83 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 36.12 INCHES (61 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN AUGUST 2016. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HILO AND LIHUE, WHILE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HONOLULU AND KAHULUI IN AUGUST 2016.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A60 76.6 0.4 A40 7.6 8.4 10.3
KAHULUI A60 79.8 0.4 EC 0.3 0.5 0.6
HONOLULU A60 82.1 0.4 EC 0.1 0.2 0.4
LIHUE A60 79.7 0.4 A40 1.4 1.8 2.5


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2016 - ASO 2017



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR CONUS AND ALASKA FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES ARE IN ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITION. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ARE ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE, WHILE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC. BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SPAN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC. UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. LA NINA IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP DURING AUGUST TO OCTOBER 2016, WITH ABOUT A 55-60% CHANCE OF LA NINA DURING THE FALL AND WINTER 2016-17.

MOST TOOLS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM ASO 2016 TO JFM 2016-17 DUE TO PERSISTENT ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR FMA 2017 AND BEYOND.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HONOLULU AND KAHULUI IN ASO 2016, WHILE ABOVE-MEDIA PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HILO AND LIHUE IN ASO 2016 ALTHOUGH THE NMME PREDICTS NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM SON 2016 TO DJF 2017, THERE IS A DRYING TREND IN HAWAII RAINFALL OVER LEEWARD SIDE IN LA NINA YEARS DURING LAST 30 YEARS. HENCE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR HONOLULU AND KAHULUI, AND ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WINDWARD EXPOSED LOCATIONS (LIHUE AND HILO) IN WINTER PERIOD. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN FMA 2017 AND LONGER LEADS.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2016 A60 76.4 0.4 A40 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2016 A60 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2016 A60 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2016 A60 74.2 0.4 A40 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2017 A50 72.8 0.4 A40 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2017 A40 71.8 0.4 A40 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2017 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2017 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2017 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2017 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2017 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2017 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2017 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2016 A60 79.4 0.4 B40 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2016 A60 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2016 A60 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2016 A60 75.9 0.4 B40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2017 A50 73.8 0.4 B40 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2017 A40 72.5 0.4 B40 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2017 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2017 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2017 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2016 A60 81.7 0.4 B40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2016 A60 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2016 A60 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2016 A60 77.7 0.5 B40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2017 A50 75.3 0.5 B40 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2017 A40 73.9 0.4 B40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2017 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2017 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2017 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2017 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2017 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2017 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2016 A60 79.4 0.3 A40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2016 A60 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2016 A60 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2016 A60 75.7 0.3 A40 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2017 A50 73.6 0.4 A40 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2017 A40 72.2 0.4 A40 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2017 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2017 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU AUG 18, 2016.


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