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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EST THU NOV 17 2016



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID DECEMBER 2016



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN ZERO DEGREES AND POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE C.

FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 11.82 INCHES (43 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 11.56 INCHES (101 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 11.70 INCHES (95 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 97.99 INCHES (98 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN DECEMBER 2016. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED BY MODEL FORECASTS FOR HAWAII DURING DECEMBER 2016.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A60 72.5 0.4 A40 6.8 10.2 13.6
KAHULUI A60 73.5 0.5 A40 1.9 2.7 3.4
HONOLULU A60 74.9 0.6 A40 0.8 1.3 3.8
LIHUE A60 73.3 0.5 A40 1.8 3.2 5.5


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID DJF 2016 - DJF 2017



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA, DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, AND THE GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. CURRENTLY BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF LA NINA CONDITIONS.

NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES IN EARLY NOVEMBER STRETCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST WEEKLY VALUE OF THE NINO 3.4 INDEX IS -0.8C. THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALSO REMAINED BELOW AVERAGE DURING OCTOBER, AS REFLECTED IN BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT DEPTH TO 150M. CONVECTION WAS SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WERE ENHANCED NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. ANOMALOUSLY WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE MEASURED WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH DJF 2017 WITH APPROXIMATELY A 55% CHANCE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT THREE-MONTH PERIOD.

BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM DJF 2016-17 TO AMJ 2017 DUE TO PERSISTENT ANOMALOUSLY ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR MJJ 2017 AND BEYOND.

DYNAMICAL TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM DJF 2016-17 TO MAM 2017 WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WINDWARD EXPOSED LOCATIONS (LIHUE AND HILO) IN THE WINTER PERIOD. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN AMJ 2017 AND LONGER LEADS.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2017 A70 72.8 0.4 A50 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2017 A65 71.8 0.4 A50 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2017 A60 71.7 0.4 A50 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2017 A50 72.0 0.5 A40 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2017 A40 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2017 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2017 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2017 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2017 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2017 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2017 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2018 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2017 A70 73.8 0.4 A40 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2017 A65 72.5 0.4 A40 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2017 A60 72.3 0.4 A40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2017 A50 73.0 0.4 A40 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2017 A40 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2017 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2018 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2017 A70 75.3 0.5 A40 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2017 A65 73.9 0.4 A40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2017 A60 73.8 0.4 A40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2017 A50 74.8 0.4 A40 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2017 A40 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2017 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2017 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2017 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2017 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2017 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2017 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2017 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2018 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2017 A70 73.6 0.4 A50 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2017 A65 72.2 0.4 A50 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2017 A60 72.1 0.5 A50 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2017 A50 72.8 0.5 A40 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2017 A40 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2017 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2018 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0


FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU DEC 15, 2016.


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