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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU APR 18 2013
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAY 2013
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C. FOR JANUARY 2013 THROUGH THE END OF MARCH, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 11.17 INCHES (97 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.02 INCHES (95 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 6.13 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 35.64 INCHES (111 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CONSENSUS AMONG CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MAY 2013. THE NMME MODEL ALSO GIVES NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN MAY 2013. | | | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION | | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | HILO | EC | 74.0 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.1 | 7.4 | 8.7 | | KAHULUI | EC | 75.8 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | | HONOLULU | EC | 78.0 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | | LIHUE | EC | 75.8 | 0.6 | | EC | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MJJ 2013 - MJJ 2014 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. DURING THE LAST 4-WEEKS - SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, EXCEPT GREATER THAN +0.5ÂșC IN A SMALL AREA OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC WHILE THE NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE WEAKENED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE ANOMALOUSLY WESTERLY ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NEAR AVERAGE. ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION HAS BEEN VARIABLE PARTIALLY DUE TO AN ACTIVE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO). MOST SST MODELS INDICATED CONTINUED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. OVERALL ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2013. BELOW BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM MJJ TO ASO 2013 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME. THE NMME MODEL GIVES EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. | | HILO | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | MJJ 2013 | EC | 74.0 | 0.4 | B40 | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 | | JJA 2013 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | B40 | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 | | JAS 2013 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | B40 | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 | | ASO 2013 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | B40 | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 | | SON 2013 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | EC | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 | | OND 2013 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | EC | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 | | NDJ 2013 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 | | DJF 2014 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 | | JFM 2014 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 | | FMA 2014 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 | | MAM 2014 | EC | 72.0 | 0.5 | EC | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 | | AMJ 2014 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 | | MJJ 2014 | EC | 74.0 | 0.4 | EC | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| KAHULUI | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | MJJ 2013 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | B40 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 | | JJA 2013 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | B40 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | | JAS 2013 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | B40 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | | ASO 2013 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | B40 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 | | SON 2013 | EC | 79.1 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 | | OND 2013 | EC | 77.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | | NDJ 2013 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | | DJF 2014 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 | | JFM 2014 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | | FMA 2014 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 | | MAM 2014 | EC | 73.0 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 | | AMJ 2014 | EC | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 | | MJJ 2014 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| HONOLULU | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | MJJ 2013 | EC | 78.2 | 0.4 | B40 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | | JJA 2013 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | B40 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | | JAS 2013 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | B40 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | | ASO 2013 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | B40 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 | | SON 2013 | EC | 81.4 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | | OND 2013 | EC | 80.0 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 | | NDJ 2013 | EC | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 | | DJF 2014 | EC | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 | | JFM 2014 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 | | FMA 2014 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 | | MAM 2014 | EC | 74.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 | | AMJ 2014 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | | MJJ 2014 | EC | 78.2 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| LIHUE | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | MJJ 2013 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | B40 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 | | JJA 2013 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | B40 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 | | JAS 2013 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | B40 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 | | ASO 2013 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | B40 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | | SON 2013 | EC | 79.1 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 | | OND 2013 | EC | 77.8 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 | | NDJ 2013 | EC | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 | | DJF 2014 | EC | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 | | JFM 2014 | EC | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 | | FMA 2014 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 | | MAM 2014 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | EC | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 | | AMJ 2014 | EC | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 | | MJJ 2014 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAY 16, 2013. | $$
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