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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SEPTEMBER 2016



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN ZERO DEGREE TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C, WITH HIGHER ANOMALIES NEAR IN THE SOUTHEAST ISLANDS.

FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF JULY 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 9.21 INCHES (48 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.94 INCHES (83 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.25 INCHES (91 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 43.44 INCHES (62 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN SEPTEMBER 2016. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN SEPTEMBER 2016.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A70 76.4 0.5 A40 8.0 9.3 11.0
KAHULUI A70 79.3 0.4 A40 0.1 0.2 0.5
HONOLULU A70 81.8 0.4 A40 0.4 0.6 0.8
LIHUE A70 79.4 0.3 A40 1.7 1.9 2.6


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SON 2016 - SON 2017



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA, FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST, AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES REFLECT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SPAN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THE BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED JUST EAST OF THE DATE LINE. UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. CONVECTION WAS SUPPRESSED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ENHANCED OVER PART OF INDONESIA LA NINA IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP DURING AUGUST TO OCTOBER 2016, WITH ABOUT A 55-60% CHANCE OF LA NINA DURING THE FALL AND WINTER 2016-17.

MOST TOOLS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM SON 2016 TO FMA 2016-17 DUE TO PERSISTENT ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR MAM 2017 AND BEYOND.

DYNAMICAL TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM SON 2016 TO FMA 2017, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WINDWARD EXPOSED LOCATIONS (LIHUE AND HILO) IN WINTER PERIOD. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN MAM 2017 AND LONGER LEADS.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2016 A70 76.2 0.4 A40 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2016 A70 75.5 0.4 A40 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2016 A65 74.2 0.4 A50 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2017 A60 72.8 0.4 A50 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2017 A50 71.8 0.4 A50 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2017 A40 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2017 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2017 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2017 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2017 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2017 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2017 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2017 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2016 A70 79.1 0.4 A40 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2016 A70 77.8 0.4 A40 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2016 A65 75.9 0.4 A40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2017 A60 73.8 0.4 A40 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2017 A50 72.5 0.4 B40 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2017 A40 72.3 0.4 A40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2017 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2017 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2016 A70 81.4 0.4 A40 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2016 A70 80.0 0.4 A40 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2016 A65 77.7 0.5 A40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2017 A60 75.3 0.5 A40 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2017 A50 73.9 0.4 A40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2017 A40 73.8 0.4 A40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2017 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2017 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2017 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2017 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2017 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2017 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2017 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2016 A70 79.1 0.3 A40 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2016 A70 77.8 0.3 A40 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2016 A65 75.7 0.3 A50 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2017 A60 73.6 0.4 A50 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2017 A50 72.2 0.4 A50 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2017 A40 72.1 0.5 A40 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2017 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU SEP 15, 2016.


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