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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU APR 17 2014



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAY 2014



SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND POSITIVE HALF DEGREE TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C.

FOR JANUARY 2014 THROUGH THE END OF MARCH, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 12.33 INCHES (107 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 6.29 INCHES (100 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 10.40 INCHES (144 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 26.96 INCHES (84 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE(NMME)SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII IN MAY 2014. NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN MAY 2014.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A45 74.0 0.5 EC 4.1 7.4 8.7
KAHULUI A45 75.8 0.6 EC 0.2 0.5 0.8
HONOLULU A45 78.0 0.6 EC 0.2 0.4 0.8
LIHUE A45 75.8 0.6 EC 1.3 1.5 2.3


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MJJ 2014 - MJJ 2015



REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS IN EARLY APRIL WERE ABOVE AVERAGE AROUND THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE AND BETWEEN 135W AND 90W, WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. POSITIVE OCEAN SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC BASIN. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. CONVECTION WAS SUPPRESSED OVER WESTERN INDONESIA - AND ENHANCED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2014. MOST MODELS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT POSITIVE SSTS ANOMALIES IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BY LATE SPRING WITH ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OF EL NINO DEVELOPING DURING THE SUMMER OR FALL.

NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM MJJ TO SON 2014. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES FOR OND 2014 AND BEYOND.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO ASO 2014 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME. THE SIGNAL FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION VANISHES FROM NMME IN SON 2014, AND STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW LITTLE USABLE SKILL FOR SON 2014 AND BEYOND, LEAVING NO REASON TO FAVOR BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2014 A45 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2014 A45 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2014 A45 76.1 0.4 A40 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2014 A45 76.4 0.4 A40 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2014 A40 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2014 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2014 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2015 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2015 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2015 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2015 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2015 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2015 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2014 A45 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2014 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2014 A45 79.0 0.4 A40 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2014 A45 79.4 0.4 A40 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2014 A40 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2014 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2014 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2015 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2015 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2015 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2015 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2014 A45 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2014 A45 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2014 A45 81.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2014 A45 81.7 0.4 A40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2014 A40 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2014 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2014 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2015 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2015 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2015 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2015 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2015 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2014 A45 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2014 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2014 A45 79.0 0.3 A40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2014 A45 79.4 0.3 A40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2014 A40 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2014 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2014 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2015 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2015 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2015 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2015 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAY 15, 2014.


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