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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU OCT 18 2018



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NOVEMBER 2018



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ABOUT POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS.

FOR JANUARY 2018 THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER 2018, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 39.16 INCHES (166 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 11.37 INCHES (118 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 17.88 INCHES (161 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 135.32 INCHES (151 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS, RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR NOVEMBER 2018. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII IN NOVEMBER 2018. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG FORECASTS FOR MOST OTHER AREAS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING NOVEMBER 2018.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A65 74.4 0.4 A45 8.7 11.4 17.1
KAHULUI A65 76.0 0.6 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
HONOLULU A60 77.8 0.6 EC 0.9 1.4 2.1
LIHUE A60 75.8 0.5 EC 2.6 3.5 5.5


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NDJ 2018 - NDJ 2019



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE ENSO FORECAST AND CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED AND EXPANDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTION IS ANOMALOUSLY BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE DATE LINE. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE EQUATOR OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES ARE EASTERLY OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE OFFICIAL CONSENSUS ENSO FORECAST INDICATES OVER A 50% PROBABILITY OF EL NINO ONSET DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AUTUMN 2018, INCREASING TO OVER A 70% CHANCE DURING WINTER 2018-19.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM NDJ 2018 TO AMJ 2019 DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS OF THE HAWAII FORECAST FOR MJJ 2019 AND BEYOND, DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CONDITIONS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES.

MOST ENSO FORECAST MODELS PREDICT A WARM EVENT, OR EL NINO, DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AUTUMN OR WINTER 2018-19. HISTORICAL EL NINO IMPACTS INDICATE STRONG CORRELATIONS BETWEEN EL NINO AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN WINTER AND SPRING, CONSISTENT WITH NMME DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG AND THE ENSO-OCN TOOL, INDICATING THE COMBINED IMPACT OF EL NINO AND DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY. EARLY IN THE NDJ SEASON, DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MODERATING THE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AMONG AVAILABLE FORECAST TOOLS IN MJJ 2019 AND LONGER LEADS, SO EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2018 A65 74.2 0.4 B50 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2019 A60 72.8 0.4 B65 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2019 A60 71.8 0.4 B70 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2019 A55 71.7 0.4 B65 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2019 A45 72.0 0.5 B60 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2019 A40 72.9 0.5 B50 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2019 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2019 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2019 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2019 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2019 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2019 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2019 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2018 A65 75.9 0.4 B55 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2019 A60 73.8 0.4 B65 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2019 A60 72.5 0.4 B70 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2019 A55 72.3 0.4 B65 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2019 A45 73.0 0.4 B60 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2019 A40 74.3 0.5 B50 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2019 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2019 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2019 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2019 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2019 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2019 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2019 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2018 A60 77.7 0.5 B60 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2019 A55 75.3 0.5 B65 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2019 A55 73.9 0.4 B70 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2019 A50 73.8 0.4 B65 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2019 A45 74.8 0.4 B60 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2019 A40 76.3 0.4 B50 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2019 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2019 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2019 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2019 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2019 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2019 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2019 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2018 A55 75.7 0.3 B60 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2019 A50 73.6 0.4 B65 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2019 A50 72.2 0.4 B70 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2019 A45 72.1 0.5 B65 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2019 A40 72.8 0.5 B60 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2019 A40 74.2 0.5 B50 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2019 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2019 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2019 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2019 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2019 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2019 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2019 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9


FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS



ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1981-2010 MEANS.



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU NOV 15, 2018.


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