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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU OCT 16 2014



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NOVEMBER 2014



SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY JUST OVER +1.0 DEGREES C.

FOR JANUARY 2014 THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 25.57 INCHES (109 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 12.81 INCHES (133 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 16.36 INCHES (147 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 85.14 INCHES (94 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING HAWAII FOR NOVEMBER 2014. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS. THE NMME ENSEMBLES SLIGHTLY FAVOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR LIHUE, WITH ONLY WEAK SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A50 74.4 0.4 EC 8.7 11.4 17.1
KAHULUI A50 76.0 0.6 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
HONOLULU A50 77.8 0.6 EC 0.9 1.4 2.1
LIHUE A45 75.8 0.5 A40 2.6 3.5 5.5


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID NDJ 2014 - NDJ 2015



REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED DURING SEPTEMBER ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS AND ARE NOW ABOUT +0.4 C. SSTS ANOMALIES IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC REMAIN BETWEEN +0.5 TO OVER +1.0 C FROM ABOUT 140E TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. SUB-SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH THE HEAT CONTENT OF THE UPPER 300 M OF THE OCEAN ABOUT 0.5 C ABOVE NORMAL.

THE AVERAGE OF BOTH DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL MODELS OF SSTS IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOMALIES OF BETWEEN +0.5 AND +1.0 C FOR SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM NDJ 2014/15 THROUGH MAM 2015. A CONSOLIDATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR NINO 3.4 SSTS PREDICTS PEAK ANOMALIES OF JUST UNDER +0.9 C IN NDJ 2014/15, DIMINISHING TO JUST UNDER +0.5 C BY MAM 2015. THE SST FORECAST REMAINED ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED IN THE LAST MONTH, IN SPITE OF THE CONTINUED ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SO LATE IN THE YEAR. THE LATE START OF EL NINO CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE A WEAK EVENT, AND NEUTRAL CONDITIONS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

BASED ON ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, THE HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE HISTORICAL CONDITIONS IN HAWAII DURING EL NINO. NCEP AND NMME MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HISTORICAL EL NINO COMPOSITES.

NCEP MODELS SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FOR NDJ AND DJF 2014/15 DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN SURROUNDING WATERS. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT LOCAL SST ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH LEAVING NO CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR JFM 2015 AND BEYOND, SO EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GIVEN AT ALL LOCATIONS.

EL NINO COOL SEASON PRECIPITATION IS USUALLY BELOW-MEDIAN FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS YEAR'S WEAK EL NINO SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN NDJ 2014/15 FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT LIHUE, WHERE AN ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN NOVEMBER WILL BALANCE THE DRY SIGNALS LATER IN THE SEASON. BELOW-MEDIAN SEASONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FAVORED FROM DJF 2014/15 THROUGH FMA 2015. THIS FORECAST ALSO HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE CFS AND NMME. THE DRY SIGNAL CONTINUES INTO MAM EXCEPT AT HONOLULU. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR ALL LOCATIONS FROM AMJ 2015 AND BEYOND.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2014 A45 74.2 0.4 B40 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2015 A40 72.8 0.4 B45 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2015 EC 71.8 0.4 B50 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2015 EC 71.7 0.4 B45 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2015 EC 72.0 0.5 B40 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2015 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2015 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2015 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2015 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2015 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2015 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2015 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2014 A45 75.9 0.4 B40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2015 A40 73.8 0.4 B45 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2015 EC 72.5 0.4 B45 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2015 EC 72.3 0.4 B40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2015 EC 73.0 0.4 B40 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2015 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2015 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2015 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2014 A40 77.7 0.5 B40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2015 A40 75.3 0.5 B45 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2015 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2015 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2015 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2015 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2015 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2015 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2015 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2015 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2015 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2015 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2014 A40 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2015 A40 73.6 0.4 B45 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2015 EC 72.2 0.4 B45 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2015 EC 72.1 0.5 B40 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2015 EC 72.8 0.5 B40 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2015 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2015 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9


FORECASTER: DAVID UNGER



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU NOV 20, 2014.


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