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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EST THU MAR 19 2015



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID APRIL 2015



SST ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE HALF DEGREE C NEAR
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLAND AND ZERO TO POSITIVE HALF DEGREE C NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLAND.

FROM JANUARY 2015 THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 1.91 INCHES (28 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 1.80 INCHES (42 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 4.31 INCHES (91 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 8.09 INCHES (43 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR APRIL 2015. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR HILO AND KAHULUI AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN APRIL 2015.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 72.6 0.7 A40 7.4 8.9 11.2
KAHULUI A40 74.1 0.6 A40 0.5 0.9 1.3
HONOLULU EC 76.3 0.5 A40 0.3 0.5 0.7
LIHUE EC 74.0 0.6 A40 1.6 1.9 2.8


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AMJ 2015 - AMJ 2016



REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC, AND NEAR AVERAGE SSTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES PERSIST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED OVER THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND NEAR AVERAGE AROUND THE DATE LINE. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES INCREASED OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. MOST MODELS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE CHANCE OF CONTINUAL EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT 50-60% THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2015.

NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM AMJ TO ASO 2015 DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN SURROUNDING WATERS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR SON 2015 AND BEYOND.

NCEP AND NMME MODELS SHOW ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HILO AND KAHULUI FROM AMJ TO JJA 2015, AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR ALL LOCATIONS FROM JAS TO ASO 2015. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR SON 2015 AND BEYOND.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2015 A45 72.9 0.5 A40 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2015 A45 74.0 0.4 A40 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2015 A45 75.2 0.4 A40 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2015 A45 76.1 0.4 A45 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2015 A45 76.4 0.4 A45 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2015 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2015 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2016 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2016 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2016 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2016 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2016 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2015 A45 74.3 0.5 A40 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2015 A45 76.0 0.5 A40 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2015 A45 77.7 0.4 A40 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2015 A45 79.0 0.4 A45 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2015 A45 79.4 0.4 A45 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2015 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2015 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2016 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2016 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2016 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2016 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2016 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2015 A40 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2015 A45 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2015 A45 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2015 A45 81.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2015 A45 81.7 0.4 A40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2015 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2015 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2015 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2016 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2016 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2016 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2016 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2016 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2015 A40 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2015 A45 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2015 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2015 A45 79.0 0.3 A40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2015 A45 79.4 0.3 A40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2015 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2015 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2016 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2016 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2016 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2016 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2016 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU APR 16, 2015.


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