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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EST THU JAN 21 2016



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2016



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE AND POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C.

FROM JANUARY 2015 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER 2015, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 30.04 INCHES (81 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 21.11 INCHES (123 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 21.48 INCHES (120 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 147.59 INCHES (116 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH-AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN FEBRUARY 2016. NCEP TOOLS, DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE CURRENT STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS, INDICATE MODEST ELEVATION OF THE CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN FEBRUARY 2016.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A45 71.4 0.5 B60 5.0 8.4 11.1
KAHULUI A45 71.9 0.6 B60 0.9 1.1 1.8
HONOLULU A45 73.3 0.5 B60 0.7 1.0 1.4
LIHUE A45 71.7 0.6 B60 1.3 1.8 4.0


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2016 - FMA 2017



REFER TO THE 90-DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN 2 DEGREE C REMAIN EAST OF THE DATE LINE. POSITIVE SUB-SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAVE RETRACTED BACK TO 170 DEGREE W. ENHANCED CONVECTION WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS. TOGETHER THESE INDICATORS SHOW THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS. EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2015-16, WITH A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL ANTICIPATED DURING LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER 2016. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.

NMME MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM FMA 2016 TO JAS 2016. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE- NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ASO 2016 AND BEYOND.

NCEP, NMME CLIMATE MODELS AND ENSO COMPOSITES INDICATED THAT BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII FROM FMA TO AMJ 2015. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- AND BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR MJJ 2016 AND LONGER LEADS.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2016 A45 71.7 0.4 B60 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2016 A45 72.0 0.5 B55 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2016 A50 72.9 0.5 B40 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2016 A50 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2016 A50 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2016 A40 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2016 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2016 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2016 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2016 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2017 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2017 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2017 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2016 A45 72.3 0.4 B60 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2016 A45 73.0 0.4 B55 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2016 A50 74.3 0.5 B40 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2016 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2016 A50 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2016 A40 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2016 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2016 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2016 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2016 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2017 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2017 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2016 A40 73.8 0.4 B60 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2016 A40 74.8 0.4 B55 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2016 A50 76.3 0.4 B40 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2016 A50 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2016 A50 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2016 A40 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2016 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2016 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2016 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2016 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2017 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2017 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2016 A40 72.1 0.5 B60 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2016 A40 72.8 0.5 B55 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2016 A50 74.2 0.5 B40 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2016 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2016 A50 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2016 A40 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2016 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2016 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2016 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2016 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2017 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2017 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2017 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU FEB 18, 2016.


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