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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SEPTEMBER 2015



SST ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND POSITIVE ONE TO TWO DEGREE C SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FROM JANUARY 2015 THROUGH THE END OF JULY 2015, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 7.63 INCHES (39 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 3.66 INCHES (44 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 12.70 INCHES (125 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 52.36 INCHES (75 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR SEPTEMBER 2015. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN SEPTEMBER 2015.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A50 76.4 0.5 A40 8.0 9.3 11.0
KAHULUI A50 79.3 0.4 A40 0.1 0.2 0.5
HONOLULU A50 81.8 0.4 A40 0.4 0.6 0.8
LIHUE A50 79.4 0.3 A40 1.7 1.9 2.6


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SON 2015 - SON 2016



REFER TO THE 90-DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES AT DEPTH REMAINED IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. ENHANCED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND WAS APPARENT IN THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUED.

STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT THE CONTINUATION OF EL NINO CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 2015. THE OFFICIAL ENSO OUTLOOK SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A GREATER THAN 90% CHANCE OF THE CONTINUATION OF EL NINO CONDITIONS THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2015-16, AND AROUND AN 85% CHANCE IT WILL LAST INTO EARLY SPRING 2016. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.

NMME MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HILO AND KAHULUI FROM SON TO JFM 2016, FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE FROM SON TO NDJ 2015, DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN SURROUNDING WATERS. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT HILO AND KAHULUI FOR LEAD TIMES FOR FMA 2016 AND BEYOND, AND EC FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE FOR LEAD TIMES FOR DJF 2016 AND BEYOND.

NCEP, NMME CLIMATE MODELS AND ENSO COMPOSITE SHOW ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII IN SON 2015. MODELS FAVOR A RAPID INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF DRY CONDITIONS AS THE COOL SEASON APPROACHES. THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAIN CONDITION FOR OND 2015 AND ELEVATE CHANCES FOR BELOW- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM NDJ THROUGH MAM 2016.  EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- AND BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR OND AND AMJ 2016 AND THEREAFTER.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2015 A55 76.2 0.4 A45 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2015 A50 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2015 A50 74.2 0.4 B50 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2016 A45 72.8 0.4 B60 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2016 A40 71.8 0.4 B60 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2016 EC 71.7 0.4 B45 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2016 EC 72.0 0.5 B40 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2016 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2016 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2016 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2016 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2016 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2016 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2015 A55 79.1 0.4 A45 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2015 A50 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2015 A50 75.9 0.4 B50 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2016 A45 73.8 0.4 B60 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2016 A40 72.5 0.4 B60 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2016 EC 72.3 0.4 B45 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2016 EC 73.0 0.4 B40 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2016 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2016 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2016 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2016 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2016 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2016 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2015 A50 81.4 0.4 A45 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2015 A45 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2015 A40 77.7 0.5 B50 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2016 EC 75.3 0.5 B60 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2016 EC 73.9 0.4 B60 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2016 EC 73.8 0.4 B45 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2016 EC 74.8 0.4 B40 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2016 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2016 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2016 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2016 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2016 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2016 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2015 A50 79.1 0.3 A45 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2015 A45 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2015 A40 75.7 0.3 B50 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2016 EC 73.6 0.4 B60 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2016 EC 72.2 0.4 B60 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2016 EC 72.1 0.5 B45 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2016 EC 72.8 0.5 B40 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2016 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2016 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2016 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2016 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2016 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2016 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU SEP 17, 2015.


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