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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EST THU JAN 19 2012
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2012
| SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE ONE DEGREE C.
FROM JANUARY 2011 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 41.11 INCHES (111 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 15.67 INCHES (92 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 11.74 INCHES (66 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 97.66 INCHES (77 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HILO AND KAHULUI IN FEBRUARY 2012. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR HAWAII IN FEBRUARY 2012.
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| | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| HILO | B40 | 71.4 | 0.5 | | A40 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 11.1 |
| KAHULUI | B40 | 71.9 | 0.6 | | A40 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| HONOLULU | EC | 73.3 | 0.5 | | A40 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| LIHUE | EC | 71.7 | 0.6 | | A40 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 4.0 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2012 - FMA 2013
| REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. DURING THE LAST 4-WEEKS - EQUATORIAL SSTS WERE MORE THAN 0.5 DEGREE C BELOW AVERAGE EAST OF 155E AND MORE THAN 1 DEGREE C BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE DATE LINE AND IN SMALL REGIONS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC. THE NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC. ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES ARE CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA. ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ENHANCED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA AND PARTS OF INDONESIA AND THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. MOST MODELS PREDICT A WEAK OR MODERATE STRENGTH LA NINA TO PEAK DURING THE DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY SEASON - AND THEN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING SEASON BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE MARCH-APRIL-MAY PERIOD. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR A WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2012.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HONOLULU FROM FMA TO MAM 2012, AND LIHUE FROM FMA TO AMJ 2012. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS FORECAST FROM FMA TO MAM 2012 BASED ON NCEP FORECAST TOOLS.
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| HILO |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2012 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | A40 | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| MAM 2012 | EC | 72.0 | 0.5 | A40 | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
| AMJ 2012 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
| MJJ 2012 | EC | 74.0 | 0.4 | EC | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
| JJA 2012 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | EC | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
| JAS 2012 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | EC | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
| ASO 2012 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | EC | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
| SON 2012 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | EC | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
| OND 2012 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | EC | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
| NDJ 2012 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
| DJF 2013 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
| JFM 2013 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
| FMA 2013 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
| KAHULUI |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2012 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | A40 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| MAM 2012 | EC | 73.0 | 0.4 | A40 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| AMJ 2012 | EC | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| MJJ 2012 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| JJA 2012 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JAS 2012 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| ASO 2012 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| SON 2012 | EC | 79.1 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| OND 2012 | EC | 77.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
| NDJ 2012 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| DJF 2013 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| JFM 2013 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| FMA 2013 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.3 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
| HONOLULU |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2012 | A40 | 73.8 | 0.4 | A40 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| MAM 2012 | A40 | 74.8 | 0.4 | A40 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| AMJ 2012 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| MJJ 2012 | EC | 78.2 | 0.4 | EC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| JJA 2012 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | EC | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| JAS 2012 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| ASO 2012 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | EC | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SON 2012 | EC | 81.4 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| OND 2012 | EC | 80.0 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| NDJ 2012 | EC | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| DJF 2013 | EC | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
| JFM 2013 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
| FMA 2013 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| LIHUE |
| TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA 2012 | A40 | 72.1 | 0.5 | A40 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| MAM 2012 | A40 | 72.8 | 0.5 | A40 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
| AMJ 2012 | A40 | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| MJJ 2012 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | EC | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| JJA 2012 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| JAS 2012 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | EC | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| ASO 2012 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | EC | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
| SON 2012 | EC | 79.1 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| OND 2012 | EC | 77.8 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
| NDJ 2012 | EC | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
| DJF 2013 | EC | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
| JFM 2013 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
| FMA 2013 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU FEB 16, 2012. |
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