|
|
About Us
Contact Us
Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month
at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the of 30 & 90-day outlooks
for exact release dates.
Text Discussions
More Outlooks
Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
|
| |
|
|
| HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion |
| |
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EST THU JAN 21 2010
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR FEBRUARY 2010
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE 0.5 DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 26.59 INCHES (67 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 11.56 INCHES (63 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 13.37 INCHES (71 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 131.75 INCHES (104 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR FEBRUARY 2010. NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI - HONOLULU - LIHUE FOR FEBRUARY 2010.
|
| TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | HILO | EC | 71.6 | 0.5 | | B40 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 9.6 | | KAHULUI | B40 | 72.1 | 0.6 | | B40 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | | HONOLULU | B40 | 73.1 | 0.5 | | B40 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.3 | | LIHUE | B40 | 71.9 | 0.6 | | B40 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR FMA 2010 TO FMA 2011 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN SST REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. DURING DECEMBER 2009 - POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SSTS ARE 1°C - 3°C ABOVE-AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXCEEDED +2°C ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO - ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA AND ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. A MAJORITY OF COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING THAT PACIFIC OCEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE BY MARCH 2010 - WHICH IS THE TYPICAL TIMING FOR THE DECAY OF EL NINO EVENTS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2010. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM FMA TO MAM 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM FMA TO MAM 2010 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE AND NCEP FORECST TOOLS. |
| HILO | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | FMA 2010 | EC | 72.1 | 0.4 | | B40 | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 | | MAM 2010 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | | B40 | 28.3 | 34.9 | 42.6 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.0 | 26.8 | 32.2 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 75.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.8 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.5 | 24.2 | 29.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.4 | 27.0 | 31.0 | | SON 2010 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 | | OND 2010 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 26.1 | 33.1 | 41.3 | | NDJ 2010 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.5 | 32.9 | 41.7 | | DJF 2010 | EC | 72.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 20.1 | 27.2 | 35.9 | | JFM 2011 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.9 | 30.9 | 39.4 | | FMA 2011 | EC | 72.1 | 0.4 | | EC | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 |
| KAHULUI | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 73.2 | 0.5 | | B40 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 | | MAM 2010 | B40 | 74.4 | 0.6 | | B40 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 75.8 | 0.6 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 77.3 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 78.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 79.1 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 78.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | | SON 2010 | EC | 77.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | | OND 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | | NDJ 2010 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2010 | EC | 72.5 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.7 | | JFM 2011 | EC | 72.4 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | | FMA 2011 | EC | 73.2 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 |
| HONOLULU | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 74.5 | 0.4 | | B40 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 | | MAM 2010 | B40 | 76.0 | 0.4 | | B40 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 79.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 80.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 81.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 81.0 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.8 | | SON 2010 | EC | 79.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 | | OND 2010 | EC | 77.3 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.5 | 6.2 | 8.4 | | NDJ 2010 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2010 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | | JFM 2011 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | | FMA 2011 | EC | 74.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 |
| LIHUE | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 73.1 | 0.4 | | B40 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 | | MAM 2010 | B40 | 74.4 | 0.4 | | B40 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 11.4 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.3 | 7.0 | 9.0 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 77.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 78.8 | 0.3 | | EC | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 79.3 | 0.3 | | EC | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | | EC | 6.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 | | SON 2010 | EC | 77.7 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | | OND 2010 | EC | 75.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 10.7 | 13.3 | 16.2 | | NDJ 2010 | EC | 73.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.8 | 12.5 | 15.8 | | DJF 2010 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.6 | 11.4 | 14.7 | | JFM 2011 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.0 | 10.8 | 14.1 | | FMA 2011 | EC | 73.1 | 0.4 | | EC | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU FEB 18, 2010
$$
|
|
|
|
|
www.nws.noaa.gov 
