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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EST THU FEB 15 2018



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2018



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE C OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FOR JANUARY 2018, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 0.44 INCHES (12 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.66 INCHES (3 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 0.27 INCHES (9 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 14.63 INCHES (158 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) STILL PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE FOR MARCH 2018. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI, AND HILO IN MARCH 2018. MOST DYNAMICAL TOOLS ALSO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HILO, KAHULUI, HONOLULU AND LIHUE DURING MARCH 2018, WHICH IS BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH ONGOING ENSO-NEGATIVE CONDITIONS.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 72.0 0.6 A50 5.7 10.8 15.2
KAHULUI A40 72.9 0.5 A50 1.4 1.9 2.9
HONOLULU A40 74.7 0.5 A50 0.6 0.8 1.9
LIHUE A40 72.7 0.6 A50 1.9 2.6 3.6


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2018 - MAM 2019



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, AND FOR THE GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. LA NINA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, AND ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE RE-APPEARED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PERSIST AT DEPTH IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SUPPRESSED CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS REMAIN STRONGER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. MOST MODELS INDICATE LA NINA WILL DECAY AND A TRANSITION FROM LA NINA TO ENSO-NEUTRAL IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM MAM 2018 TO ASO 2018 DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR SON 2018 AND BEYOND.

DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN MAM 2018. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AMONG AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS (CONSTRUCTED ANALOG AND CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS) IN AMJ AND LONGER LEADS, SO EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2018 A55 72.0 0.5 A40 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2018 A55 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2018 A55 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2018 A50 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2018 A45 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2018 A40 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2018 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2018 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2018 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2019 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2019 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2019 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2019 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
\N

KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2018 A55 73.0 0.4 A40 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2018 A55 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2018 A55 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2018 A50 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2018 A45 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2018 A40 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2018 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2018 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2018 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2019 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2019 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2019 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2019 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
\N

HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2018 A55 74.8 0.4 A40 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2018 A55 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2018 A55 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2018 A50 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2018 A45 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2018 A40 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2018 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2018 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2018 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2019 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2019 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2019 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2019 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
\N

LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2018 A55 72.8 0.5 A40 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2018 A55 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2018 A55 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2018 A50 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2018 A45 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2018 A40 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2018 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2018 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2018 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2019 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2019 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2019 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2019 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
\N
FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS


CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.


NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAR 15, 2018.


$$

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