Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn DJF 2014
    1.5mn JFM 2015
    2.5mn FMA 2015
    3.5mn MAM 2015
    4.5mn AMJ 2015
    5.5mn MJJ 2015
    6.5mn JJA 2015
    7.5mn JAS 2015
    8.5mn ASO 2015
    9.5mn SON 2015
   10.5mn OND 2015
   11.5mn NDJ 2015
   12.5mn DJF 2015
    0.5mn Dec 2014


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EST THU NOV 20 2014



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID DECEMBER 2014



SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY AROUND POSITIVE HALF DEGREE TO ONE DEGREE C.

FOR JANUARY 2014 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 28.48 INCHES (104 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 18.32 INCHES (160 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 17.25 INCHES (140 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 100.11 INCHES (100 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING HAWAII FOR DECEMBER 2014. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN DECEMBER 2014.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A50 72.5 0.4 EC 6.8 10.2 13.6
KAHULUI A50 73.5 0.5 EC 1.9 2.7 3.4
HONOLULU A50 74.9 0.6 EC 0.8 1.3 3.8
LIHUE A45 73.3 0.5 EC 1.8 3.2 5.5


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID DJF 2014 - DJF 2015



REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED ALONG EQUATOR ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE EXPANDING EASTWARD. THE MONTHLY EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR AVERAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO MOSTLY AVERAGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC. POSITIVE OLR ANOMALIES ARE EVIDENT OVER INDONESIA AND NEAR THE DATE LINE, WHILE NEGATIVE OLR ANOMALIES ARE APPARENT SOUTHEAST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA. MOST MODELS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE CHANCE OF EL NINO IS ABOUT 60% DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2015. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.

NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM DJF TO MAM 2015 DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN SURROUNDING WATERS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES FOR AMJ 2015 AND BEYOND.

BASED ON ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, THE HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE HISTORICAL CONDITIONS IN HAWAII DURING EL NINO. NCEP AND NMME MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HISTORICAL EL NINO COMPOSITES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM DJF TO MAM 2015. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR ALL LOCATIONS FROM AMJ 2015 AND BEYOND.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2015 A45 72.8 0.4 B45 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2015 A45 71.8 0.4 B45 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2015 A45 71.7 0.4 B40 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2015 A40 72.0 0.5 B40 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2015 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2015 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2015 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2015 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2015 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2015 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2015 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2016 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2015 A45 73.8 0.4 B45 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2015 A45 72.5 0.4 B45 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2015 A45 72.3 0.4 B40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2015 A40 73.0 0.4 B40 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2015 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2015 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2015 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2016 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2015 A45 75.3 0.5 B45 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2015 A45 73.9 0.4 B45 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2015 A40 73.8 0.4 B40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2015 A40 74.8 0.4 B40 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2015 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2015 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2015 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2015 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2015 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2015 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2015 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2015 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2016 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2015 A45 73.6 0.4 B45 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2015 A40 72.2 0.4 B45 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2015 A40 72.1 0.5 B40 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2015 A40 72.8 0.5 B40 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2015 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2015 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2016 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU DEC 18, 2014.


$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities