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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SEPTEMBER 2014



SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND POSITIVE HALF DEGREE TO ONE DEGREE C.

FOR JANUARY 2014 THROUGH THE END OF JULY, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 20.37 INCHES (105 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 11.67 INCHES (140 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 15.18 INCHES (149 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 70.30 INCHES (100 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE(NMME)SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII IN SEPTEMBER 2014. NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN SEPTEMBER 2014.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A50 76.4 0.5 EC 8.0 9.3 11.0
KAHULUI A50 79.3 0.4 EC 0.1 0.2 0.5
HONOLULU A50 81.8 0.4 EC 0.4 0.6 0.8
LIHUE A50 79.4 0.3 EC 1.7 1.9 2.6


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SON 2014 - SON 2015



REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SSTS HAVE BECOME NEAR AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC - WHILE REMAINING ABOVE-AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES EMERGED IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC AT ~100-200M DEPTH. HOWEVER - ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC - SUBSURFACE ANOMALIES ARE DECREASING BUT STILL POSITIVE NEAR THE SURFACE - WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES UNDERNEATH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAINED GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE AND CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC REMAINED NEAR AVERAGE DURING JULY, BUT WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES APPEARED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN. MOST MODELS FROM THE NMME AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE CHANCE OF EL NINO IS ABOUT 65% DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL AND EARLY WINTER. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.

NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM SON TO NDJ 2014. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES FOR DJF 2015 AND BEYOND.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR LIHUE IN SON 2014 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS PART OF THE NMME. THE POSSIBILITY OF EL NINO CONDITIONS ELEVATE CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS FROM NDJ TO JFM 2015.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2014 A50 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2014 A45 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2014 A40 74.2 0.4 B40 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2015 EC 72.8 0.4 B45 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2015 EC 71.8 0.4 B45 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2015 EC 71.7 0.4 B0 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2015 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2015 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2015 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2015 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2015 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2015 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2015 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2014 A50 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2014 A45 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2014 A40 75.9 0.4 B40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 B45 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2015 EC 72.5 0.4 B45 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2015 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2015 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2015 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2014 A50 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2014 A45 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2014 A40 77.7 0.5 B40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2015 EC 75.3 0.5 B45 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2015 EC 73.9 0.4 B45 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2015 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2015 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2015 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2015 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2015 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2015 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2015 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2014 A50 79.1 0.3 A40 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2014 A45 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2014 A40 75.7 0.3 B40 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2015 EC 73.6 0.4 B45 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2015 EC 72.2 0.4 B45 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2015 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2015 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU SEP 18, 2014.


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