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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2015



SST ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND POSITIVE ONE-HALF TO ONE DEGREE C SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FROM JANUARY 2015 THROUGH THE END OF MAY 2015, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 5.89 INCHES (37 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 3.00 INCHES (40 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 11.80 INCHES (120 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 39.07 INCHES (75 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR JULY 2015. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN JULY 2015 BY DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A50 76.2 0.4 EC 7.1 9.5 11.4
KAHULUI A50 79.2 0.4 EC 0.2 0.4 0.5
HONOLULU A50 81.4 0.5 EC 0.2 0.4 0.5
LIHUE A50 79.2 0.4 EC 1.5 1.7 1.9


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2015 - JAS 2016



REFER TO THE 90-DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES STRENGTHENED ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE PRESENT IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC AROUND THE DATE LINE. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES CONTINUED OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT THE CONTINUATION OF EL NINO CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 2015. THE OFFICIAL ENSO OUTLOOK SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A GREATER THAN 90% CHANCE OF THE CONTINUATION OF EL NINO CONDITIONS THROUGH FALL 2015 AND APPROXIMATELY A 85% CHANCE IT WILL LAST THROUGH THE 2015-16 WINTER. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILIATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.

NMME MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO NDJ 2015 DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN SURROUNDING WATERS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES FOR DJF 2016 AND BEYOND.

NCEP, NMME CLIMATE MODELS AND ENSO COMPOSITE SHOW ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII FROM JAS TO SON 2015, AND BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM NDJ THROUGH FMA 2016. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR- AND BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR OND 2015 AND FOR MAM 2016 AND THEREAFTER.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2015 A50 76.1 0.4 A40 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2015 A50 76.4 0.4 A45 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2015 A50 76.2 0.4 A40 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2015 A45 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2015 A40 74.2 0.4 B40 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2016 EC 72.8 0.4 B45 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2016 EC 71.8 0.4 B45 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2016 EC 71.7 0.4 B40 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2016 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2016 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2016 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2016 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2016 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2015 A50 79.0 0.4 A40 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2015 A50 79.4 0.4 A45 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2015 A50 79.1 0.4 A40 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2015 A45 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2015 A40 75.9 0.4 B40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2016 EC 73.8 0.4 B45 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2016 EC 72.5 0.4 B45 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2016 EC 72.3 0.4 B40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2016 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2016 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2016 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2016 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2016 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2015 A50 81.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2015 A50 81.7 0.4 A45 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2015 A50 81.4 0.4 A40 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2015 A45 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2015 A40 77.7 0.5 B40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2016 EC 75.3 0.5 B45 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2016 EC 73.9 0.4 B45 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2016 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2016 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2016 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2016 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2016 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2016 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2015 A50 79.0 0.3 A40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2015 A50 79.4 0.3 A45 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2015 A50 79.1 0.3 A40 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2015 A45 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2015 A40 75.7 0.3 B40 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2016 EC 73.6 0.4 B45 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2016 EC 72.2 0.4 B45 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2016 EC 72.1 0.5 B40 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2016 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2016 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2016 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2016 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2016 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 16, 2015.


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