Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn OND 2016
    1.5mn NDJ 2016
    2.5mn DJF 2016
    3.5mn JFM 2017
    4.5mn FMA 2017
    5.5mn MAM 2017
    6.5mn AMJ 2017
    7.5mn MJJ 2017
    8.5mn JJA 2017
    9.5mn JAS 2017
   10.5mn ASO 2017
   11.5mn SON 2017
   12.5mn OND 2017
    0.5mn Oct 2016


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OCTOBER 2016



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN ZERO DEGREE TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C, WITH HIGHER ANOMALIES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST ISLANDS.

FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 10.73 INCHES (50 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 8.52 INCHES (96 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.81 INCHES (92 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 68.12 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN OCTOBER 2016. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR HAWAII DURING OCTOBER 2016.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A70 75.7 0.5 A50 7.8 8.6 12.1
KAHULUI A70 78.2 0.4 A50 0.3 0.6 1.1
HONOLULU A70 80.2 0.5 A50 0.5 1.3 1.9
LIHUE A70 78.1 0.3 A50 2.5 3.3 4.2


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OND 2016 - OND 2017



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA FOR DISCUSSION ON THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES REFLECT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SINCE EARLY AUGUST, NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE WEAKENED AT DEPTH NEAR AND WEST OF THE DATE LINE.  THE JUNE-AUGUST ONI IS -0.29 WITH THE AUGUST MONTHLY VALUE AT -0.5C. THE LOWER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE ANOMALOUSLY WESTERLY IN A SMALL REGION TO THE EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. CONVECTION WAS SUPPRESSED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE COMBINED OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REFLECT ENSO-NEUTRAL. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED (BETWEEN 55-60%) DURING THE UPCOMING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL AND WINTER 2016-17.

MOST TOOLS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM OND 2016 TO MAM 2016-17 DUE TO PERSISTENT ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR AMJ 2017 AND BEYOND.

DYNAMICAL TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM OND 2016 TO FMA 2017, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WINDWARD EXPOSED LOCATIONS (LIHUE AND HILO) IN WINTER PERIOD. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN MAM 2017 AND LONGER LEADS.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2016 A70 75.5 0.4 A40 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2016 A70 74.2 0.4 A50 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2017 A65 72.8 0.4 A50 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2017 A60 71.8 0.4 A50 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2017 A50 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2017 A40 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2017 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2017 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2017 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2017 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2017 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2017 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2017 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2016 A70 77.8 0.4 A40 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2016 A70 75.9 0.4 A40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2017 A65 73.8 0.4 A40 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2017 A60 72.5 0.4 A40 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2017 A50 72.3 0.4 A40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2017 A40 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2017 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2016 A70 80.0 0.4 A40 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2016 A70 77.7 0.5 A40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2017 A65 75.3 0.5 A40 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2017 A60 73.9 0.4 A40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2017 A50 73.8 0.4 A40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2017 A40 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2017 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2017 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2017 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2017 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2017 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2017 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2017 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2016 A70 77.8 0.3 A40 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2016 A70 75.7 0.3 A50 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2017 A65 73.6 0.4 A50 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2017 A60 72.2 0.4 A50 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2017 A50 72.1 0.5 A40 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2017 A40 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU OCT 20, 2016.


$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities