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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OCTOBER 2014



SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN +0.5 AND +1.0 DEGREES C.

FOR JANUARY 2014 THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 24.17 INCHES (113 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 12.23 INCHES (137 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 15.65 INCHES (146 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 81.11 INCHES (101 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING HAWAII FOR OCTOBER 2014. THIS INCREASES CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER, 2014 AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS. THERE ARE NO CONSISTENT SIGNALS FROM THE NMME MODELS FOR OCTOBER PRECIPITATION, SUGGESTING EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW-, NEAR-, OR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A45 75.7 0.5 EC 7.8 8.6 12.1
KAHULUI A40 78.2 0.4 EC 0.3 0.6 1.1
HONOLULU A40 80.2 0.5 EC 0.5 1.3 1.9
LIHUE A40 78.1 0.3 EC 2.5 3.3 4.2


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OND 2014 - OND 2015



REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST.  ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AFTER BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN EARLY AUGUST. SST ANOMALIES IN ALL 4 OF THE NINO REGIONS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE +0.4 C, WITH THE NINO 3.4 SSTS ANOMALIES AVERAGING ABOUT +0.5 C DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE UPPER 300 M OF THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HAS ALSO RECOVERED FROM A TEMPORARY COOLING IN LATE JULY AND IS NOW ABOUT 0.7 C ABOVE LONG TERM AVERAGES. WIND AND CONVECTION ANOMALIES ALONG THE EQUATOR OVER THE PACIFIC REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AND SOMEWHAT LACKING IN A COHERANT EL NINO-LIKE PATTERN, THUS THE ENSO-NEUTRAL CLASSIFICATION.

THE AVERAGE OF BOTH DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL MODELS OF SSTS IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION CONTINUE TO PREDICT ANOMALIES OF BETWEEN +0.5 AND +1.0 C FOR SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM OND 2014 THROUGH MAM 2015. A CONSOLIDATION OF MODEL FORECASTS FOR NINO 3.4 SSTS PREDICTS PEAK ANOMALIES OF JUST UNDER +0.9 C IN NDJ 2014/15, DIMINISHING TO JUST UNDER +0.5 C BY MAM 2015. VERY FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PREDICT ANOMALIES ABOVE +1.5 C, SO A STRONG EL NINO EVENT IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY, LEAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR A WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE WARM EVENT THIS NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER.

BASED ON ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, THE HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE HISTORICAL CONDITIONS IN HAWAII DURING EL NINO. NCEP AND NMME MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HISTORICAL EL NINO COMPOSITES. EL NINO IS ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR HAWAII DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER.

NCEP MODELS SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FOR OND 2014, CONTINUING INTO NDJ 2014/2015 EXCEPT AT LIHUE.  EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GIVEN FOR ALL LOCATIONS FOR DJF 2014/15 AND BEYOND.

BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR ALL LOCATIONS FROM NDJ 2014 THROUGH FMA 2015, ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO.  THIS FORECAST ALSO HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE CFS AND NMME. THE DRY SIGNAL CONTINUES INTO MAM EXCEPT AT HONOLULU.  EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR ALL LOCATIONS FROM AMJ 2015 AND BEYOND.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2014 A45 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2014 A40 74.2 0.4 B40 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2015 EC 72.8 0.4 B45 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2015 EC 71.8 0.4 B50 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2015 EC 71.7 0.4 B45 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2015 EC 72.0 0.5 B40 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2015 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2015 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2015 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2015 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2015 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2015 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2015 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2014 A40 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2014 A40 75.9 0.4 B40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 B45 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2015 EC 72.5 0.4 B45 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2015 EC 72.3 0.4 B40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2015 EC 73.0 0.4 B40 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2015 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2015 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2014 A40 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2014 A40 77.7 0.5 B40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2015 EC 75.3 0.5 B45 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2015 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2015 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2015 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2015 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2015 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2015 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2015 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2015 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2015 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2015 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2014 A40 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2014 EC 75.7 0.3 B40 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2015 EC 73.6 0.4 B45 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2015 EC 72.2 0.4 B45 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2015 EC 72.1 0.5 B40 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2015 EC 72.8 0.5 B40 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2015 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2015 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2015 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2015 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2015 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2015 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2015 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6


FORECASTER: DAVID UNGER



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU OCT 16, 2014.


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