Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn OND 2013
    1.5mn NDJ 2013
    2.5mn DJF 2013
    3.5mn JFM 2014
    4.5mn FMA 2014
    5.5mn MAM 2014
    6.5mn AMJ 2014
    7.5mn MJJ 2014
    8.5mn JJA 2014
    9.5mn JAS 2014
   10.5mn ASO 2014
   11.5mn SON 2014
   12.5mn OND 2014
    0.5mn Oct 2013


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OCTOBER 2013



SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NEAR +0.5 DEGREES C NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT REMAINING POSITIVE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR JANUARY 2013 THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 17.21 INCHES (80 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 9.08 INCHES (102 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 8.66 INCHES (81 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 54.88 INCHES (81 PERCENT OF NORMAL)


THE CFS SHOWS WEAK INDICATIONS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII. SST ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST BY THE CFS TO EDGE UPWARD TO AROUND +0.5 DEGREES C IN OCTOBER. CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) ALSO SUPPORT THIS FORECAST SO THE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FOR OCTOBER, 2013.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST BETWEEN MODELS INCLUDED IN THE NMME.  BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED AMONG MEMBERS, LEADING TO A FORECAST OF SLIGHT ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR HAWAII IN OCTOBER 2013.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 75.7 0.5 B40 7.8 8.6 12.1
KAHULUI A40 78.2 0.4 B40 0.3 0.6 1.1
HONOLULU A40 80.2 0.5 B40 0.5 1.3 1.9
LIHUE A40 78.1 0.3 B40 2.5 3.3 4.2


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID OND 2013 - OND 2014



REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND ARE NOW VERY SLIGHTLY POSITIVE. BELOW NORMAL EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE HOLDING ON IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALTHOUGH BELOW NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE CONFINED TO A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXCEPT NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. WINDS AT BOTH LOW AND UPPER LEVELS WERE CLOSE TO LONG TERM AVERAGES IN AUGUST. CONVECTION REMAINED ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA AND SUPPRESSED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT SSTS THROUGHOUT THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY 2014, FAVORING CONTINUED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS.

THE CFS AND NMME SHOW ONLY VERY WEAK INDICATIONS OF CLIMATE ANOMALIES FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL AND WINTER. BOTH THE CFS AND NMME PREDICT CONTINUED POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII FOR OND, WITH MAGNITUDES STRONGEST NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS, LEADING TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LIHUE AND HONOLULU FOR OND 2013. THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BEYOND OND, SO EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR LEAD TIMES BEYOND OND 2013.

THE NMME SHOWS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF HAWAII FOR OND 2013. SOME HINTS AT DRY CONDITIONS FROM FORECASTS BASED ON SST CONSTRUCTED ANALOGS AND INDICATIONS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE CCA LEAD TO A FORECAST FOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AT HILO.  THE PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FROM THE NMME INDICATES ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR JFM AND FMA 2014, WITH STATISTICAL FORECASTS FROM CCA EXTENDING THIS SIGNAL INTO MAM 2014 AT HILO.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2013 EC 75.5 0.4 B40 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2013 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2014 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2014 EC 71.8 0.4 B40 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2014 EC 71.7 0.4 B40 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2014 EC 72.0 0.5 B40 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2014 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2014 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2014 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2014 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2014 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2014 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2014 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2013 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2013 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2014 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2014 EC 72.5 0.4 B40 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2014 EC 72.3 0.4 B40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2014 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2014 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2014 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2014 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2014 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2014 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2014 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2014 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2013 A40 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2013 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2014 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2014 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2014 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2014 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2014 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2014 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2014 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2014 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2014 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2014 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2014 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2013 A40 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2013 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2014 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2014 EC 72.2 0.4 B40 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2014 EC 72.1 0.5 B40 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2014 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2014 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2014 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2014 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2014 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2014 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2014 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2014 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6


FORECASTER: DAVID UNGER



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU OCT 17, 2013.


$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities