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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

THE JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2017 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S., ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST AND FLORIDA, THE SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE
JAS 2017 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WESTERN GULF COAST,
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS.

DURING THE FALL AND WINTER 2017-18, CHANCES OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT HAVE
DECREASED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH. SINCE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST, THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS DURING THE
COLD SEASON ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND DECADAL TRENDS.

EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST OVER AREAS WHERE ODDS OF ABOVE-, BELOW-, OR
NEAR-NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC INDICATE
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS PERSIST, ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE OBSERVED WEEKLY SSTS
ACROSS THIS REGION, CENTERED ON JUNE 7, FEATURE SMALL POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES OF
0.5 TO 1 DEGREE C FROM THE DATE LINE TO 130 DEGREES W. THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ANOMALY FROM THE DATE LINE TO 100 DEGREES W REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT
THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ANOMALY DECREASED SINCE EARLY MAY.

DESPITE WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PACIFIC SINCE MARCH, ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTIVE ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST
OF THE DATE LINE FROM MAY 13 TO JUNE 7. ENHANCED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
INDONESIA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE WIND ANOMALIES AT THE LOWER AND
UPPER-LEVELS WERE NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE PAST MONTH. THESE ATMOSPHERIC
INDICATORS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

THE LATEST NCEP CFSV2 AND MOST OF THE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE (NMME) ARE FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE FALL. THE CPC NINO 3.4 SST INDEX CONSOLIDATION FORECAST INDICATES A
POSITIVE ANOMALY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0.5 DEGREES C THROUGH NDJ. DUE TO THESE
LATEST MODEL PREDICTIONS ALONG WITH NEAR-AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER
THE PACIFIC, THE CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST INDICATES SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE
(50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE) IN THE PERSISTENCE OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
JFM 2018. THE CHANCES FOR EL NINO (AROUND 35 PERCENT) DURING THE UPCOMING FALL
AND WINTER ARE SIMILAR TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY.

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

THE PRIMARY TOOLS USED FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS INCLUDED STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE, AND IN PARTICULAR AT LONGER LEADS, DECADAL
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE CALIBRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND, TO LESSER EXTENT, ITS
INDIVIDUAL MODELS, INCLUDING THE NCEP CFS, WERE IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTORS TO THE
OUTLOOKS THROUGH NDJ 2017. ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE WAS CONSIDERED, ALTHOUGH IT
WILL PLAY A DIMINISHING ROLE LATER IN THE UPCOMING SEASON OF JAS. THE
DECREASING LIKELIHOOD OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS,
WAS A FACTOR IN LATER LEADS.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JAS 2017 TO JAS 2018

TEMPERATURE

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN
FOR THE JAS OUTLOOK, AS THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
MOST RECENT NMME INCREASED COVERAGE OF ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. IN PART DUE TO INITIALLY HIGH SOIL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, BUT THIS
REDUCED AREA OF PROBABILITIES IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS FROM THE
VARIOUS TOOLS. EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW-, NEAR-, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIMITED TO PARTS OF MONTANA BASED ON DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE CFS MODEL
INDICATING A SMALL AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING JAS ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST, PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO DECADAL TRENDS AND
CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE NMME. THIS TOOL INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(50 AND ABOVE) OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FROM ASO 2017 TO NDJ 2017-18 ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE NMME CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES SINCE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING THESE SEASONAL PERIODS. AN EXPECTED LACK OF SEA
ICE ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
DURING THE FALL SEASON. DECADAL TRENDS ARE USED IN CREATING THE TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOKS AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES DURING THE SPRING AND SUMMER OF 2018.

PRECIPITATION

ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DURING JAS ARE MAINTAINED FROM ONE
MONTH AGO ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND PARTS OF ALASKA, BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION TOOLS FEATURE A WET SIGNAL
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION DURING JAS IS INTRODUCED TO THIS REGION. THE SIGNAL IS GENERALLY
WEAK AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS WITH MONSOON RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DURING JAS 2017. THEREFORE, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW-, NEAR-, OR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST DURING JAS.

SINCE THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK, THE CHANCES FOR EL NINO DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
SIX MONTHS HAVE DECREASED. GIVEN THE LATEST CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST FAVORING
A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WINTER 2017-18, IT WAS
NECESSARY TO REMOVE THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE UPCOMING FALL AND WINTER.
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS (THROUGH NDJ 2017-18) ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON GUIDANCE
FROM THE CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE NMME WHICH DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.  PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS AT LATER LEADS ARE BASED ON THE
CONSOLIDATION AND DECADAL TRENDS.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH

THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.

FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON JUL 20 2017


1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011
FORECAST RELEASE.
$$

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