PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 
830AM EST THURSDAY JAN 19 2012 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE: 
1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH TOGETHER COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION 
OR ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH 
OBSERVATIONS FROM 3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS, 
AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES.  THESE ARE CALLED 
"ENSO COMPOSITES", AND ARE USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST. 
2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST 
RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN 
LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 
1981-2010). 
3) THE TROPICAL 30-60 DAY OSCILLATION - SOMETIMES CALLED MADDEN JULIAN 
OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 
4) THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) 
PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN ESPECIALLY DURING THE 
COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE CONSIDERED LESS PREDICTABLE ON A SEASONAL 
TIMESCALE THAN ENSO. 
5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE 
VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN 
REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIME-SCALE THAN ENSO. 
6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE 
COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS 
AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM. 
7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING 
MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) AND ENSEMBLE CCA 
(ECCA). 
8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM 
(CFS). THE UPGRADED PARALLEL VERSION OF THE CFS (CFSV2) BECAME OPERATIONAL IN 
LATE MARCH OF 2011. BOTH VERSIONS OF CFS ARE CURRENTLY RUN IN PARALLEL. AN 
EXPERIMENTAL MODEL, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE, COMPRISED OF SEVERAL 
MODELS AND DESIGNATED NMME, MAY ALSO BE USED EXPERIMENTALLY AND SUBJECTIVELY. 
9) CONSOLIDATION (CON) - AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE OCN, 
CCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE 
FORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF OUR 
FORECAST TOOLS. 
 
WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE MOSTLY BELOW 
AVERAGE FROM AROUND 160E TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST, WITH SSTS RANGING FROM 
0.5 DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL TO 2 DEGREES C BELOW NORMAL. THIS LARGE AREA OF 
ANOMALOUSLY COOL SSTS CAN IMPACT THE LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION 
THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION, WHICH, IN TURN, CAN INFLUENCE THE MEAN 
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS OVER NORTH AMERICA. 
 
SUB-SURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC TO A DEPTH OF 200 METERS, FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF 
LA NINA CONDITIONS INTO THE SPRING. FORECASTS FROM MOST CLIMATE MODELS SUPPORT 
THIS CONCLUSION, WITH SST ANOMALIES PREDICTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT 
LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. 
 
THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2012 REFLECTS TYPICAL LATE WINTER LA 
NINA CONDITIONS AND FAVORS BELOW AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES FROM PORTIONS OF THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD THROUGH MONTANA, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. 
THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
HALF OF BOTH THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST, 
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 
 
THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2012 FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN AMOUNTS OF 
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND A 
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH INCLUDES THE GREAT LAKES REGION, 
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CHANCES 
OF BELOW-MEDIAN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FROM APPROXIMATELY THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALONG THE GULF 
COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THE ODDS OF BELOW-MEDIAN AMOUNTS OF 
PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO ELEVATED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. 
 
IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL 
CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION 
ARE INDICATED. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE: 
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC REMAINED 
FAIRLY STEADY IN DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY. NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE 
(SST) ANOMALIES OF AT LEAST -0.5 C EXTEND ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM ABOUT 160E TO 
THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST IN EARLY JANUARY. THE SUB-SURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT 
(NEAR-EQUATORIALLY AVERAGED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPERMOST 300 METERS OF THE 
OCEAN) INDICATES A LARGE VOLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD WATER EXTENDING FROM NEAR 
THE SURFACE TO A DEPTH OF 200 METERS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA FORCING. SUPPRESSED 
CONVECTION DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WHILE ENHANCED 
CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM THE PHILIPPINES AND INDONESIA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS 
THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. IN ADDITION, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL (850-HPA) 
EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE 
UPPER-LEVEL (200-HPA) FLOW PATTERN DEPICTS A CYCLONIC COUPLET STRADDLING THE 
EQUATOR, WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS (BETWEEN THE TWO VORTICES) ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. COLLECTIVELY, THESE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC 
INDICATORS SUGGEST WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS. 
 
THE ARCTIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS (AO AND NAO, RESPECTIVELY) HAVE BEEN 
PREDOMINATELY POSITIVE SINCE SEPTEMBER 2011. THE POSITIVE AO THIS FALL IS IN 
MARKED CONTRAST TO THE PAST TWO AUTUMN/EARLY WINTER SEASONS WHICH FEATURED 
EPISODES OF EXTREME NEGATIVE AO VALUES. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES TO 
CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING OF 2012. SST FORECASTS FROM THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST 
SYSTEM (CFSV2) INDICATE THAT THE NINO 3.4 ANOMALY WILL STEADILY DIMINISH FROM 
THEIR CURRENT LEVELS TO AROUND -0.5 C (ENSEMBLE MEAN) BY THE MAM 2012 SEASON. 
THEREAFTER, THE CFSV2 PREDICTS A CONTINUED DECREASE IN SST ANOMALY INTO ENSO 
NEUTRAL TERRITORY, APPROACHING THE ZERO-ANOMALY LINE BY MJJ 2012. A 
CONSOLIDATION FORECAST OF THE CFSV1, CFSV2, A CONSTRUCTED ANALOG TOOL, THE 
MARKOV MODEL AND THE CCA FORECASTS FOR NINO 3.4 SSTS SHOWS ANOMALIES COOLER 
THAN -0.5 C CONTINUING TO AROUND MAM 2012, SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A 
TRANSITION FROM LA NINA TO ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING BOREAL SPRING. THERE- 
AFTER, THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL PREDICTS SST DEPARTURES TO REMAIN BETWEEN ZERO 
AND -0.5 C THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER AND INTO THE AUTUMN. 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
MOST TOOLS PRODUCED FORECASTS CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA COMPOSITES FOR LATE 
WINTER AND SPRING. THE CFSV2 AND NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) ARE 
SUGGESTING THE CURRENT COLD EVENT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WHAT MOST 
OTHER SOLUTIONS AND LA NINA COMPOSITES FAVOR. THE OUTLOOKS FOR FMA THROUGH AMJ 
2012 WERE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY LA NINA COMPOSITES, THE CFSV2, THE NMME, AND 
THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL. LA NINA IMPACTS MAY EXTEND INTO THE LATE SPRING DUE TO 
THE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES CAUSED BY WINTERTIME PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES 
ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA. THIS PRIMARILY INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF 
THE COUNTRY. THE OUTLOOKS FOR MJJ AND JJA 2012 ARE BASED LARGELY ON THESE SAME 
TOOLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LA NINA COMPOSITIES. FROM JAS 2012 TO FMA 2013, 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL, 
WHICH IS PRIMARILY INFLUENCED AT THOSE LEADS BY TRENDS RELATED TO DECADAL 
VARIABILITY IN THE LONG TERM CLIMATE STATE. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - FMA 2012 TO FMA 2013 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2012 CALLS FOR ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL 
MEAN TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA, 
AND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL 
MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN 
REGION AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. TO 
THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM DELAWARE AND MARYLAND TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS OUTLOOK 
IS BASED LARGELY ON LA NINA COMPOSITES AND THE CONSOLIDATION (CON) TOOL, WITH A 
TILT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CFSV2 AND NMME SOLUTIONS WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY 
WARMER OVERALL. FOR THE ENSUING MAM AND AMJ 2012 OUTLOOKS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING 
OF THE CURRENT COLD EPISODE IS PREDICTED. IN THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES, 
EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW-, NEAR-, AND ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE 
ANTICIPATED, EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE TOOLS PREDICT RELATIVE WARMTH IN THAT 
REGION. THE CFSV2 DOES NOT ANTICIPATE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IT IS VERY DIFFICULT 
TO PREDICT WHETHER THE AO WILL PERSIST IN ITS POSITIVE PHASE OR SWITCH TO ITS 
NEGATIVE PHASE. FROM MJJ AND JJA 2012 ONWARD, THE OUTLOOKS RELY MORE AND MORE 
ON THE CON TOOL, WHICH IS PRIMARILY INFLUENCED AT THOSE LEADS BY TRENDS RELATED 
TO DECADAL VARIABILITY IN THE LONG TERM CLIMATE STATE. AS A RESULT, THE 
COVERAGE OF ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES EXPANDS ACROSS THE 
WEST AND UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING MJJ, JJA, AND JAS 2012, WITH AN 
INCREASING WARM SIGNAL OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY ASO 2012, WHICH PERSISTS INTO 
NDJ 2012-13. THE ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER FAR NORTHERN 
ALASKA DURING ASO, SON, OND 2012, AND THEN AGAIN IN JFM 2013 AND FMA 2013 IS 
ATTRIBUTED TO LONGER TERM TRENDS IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURE. 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FMA 2012 CALLS FOR ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, 
AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE MIDDLE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE 
PREDICTED FROM APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES. 
THE ODDS OF BELOW-MEDIAN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO ELEVATED OVER 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS 
CONSISTENT WITH TYPICAL LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING LA NINAS. THE FORECAST AREAS 
OF RELATIVE WETNESS WERE ALSO PREDICTED, THOUGH TO A LESSER DEGREE, BY THE 
CFSV2 MODEL, THE NMME, AND THE CONSOLIDATION. THE EXPECTED AREAS OF RELATIVE 
DRYNESS WERE ALSO FORECAST TO VARYING DEGREES BY THE IRI MODEL, THE CFSV2, THE 
CON, AND THE NMME. LA NINA COMPOSITES WERE ALSO USED IN THE ENSUING MAM AND AMJ 
2012 SEASONS, THOUGH WITH DIMINISHING IMPACT. BY MJJ 2012, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) 
IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE CONUS AND ALASKA. THEREAFTER, LONGER-TERM PRECIPITATION 
TRENDS BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT, AND ARE EMPHASIZED BY THE CON TOOL. THE 
CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE INTERIOR 
NORTHWEST DURING JJA, JAS, AND ASO 2012, WITH ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INDICATED OVER FLORIDA IN BOTH JAS AND ASO 2012. IN ASO 
AND SON 2012, THERE IS A TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. FROM SON 2012 TO NDJ 2012-13, THE ONLY 
USEABLE LONGER-TERM SIGNAL IS FOR RELATIVE DRYNESS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW 
MEXICO. FINALLY, BY JFM AND FMA 2013, LONGER-TERM PRECIPITATION TRENDS SUPPORT 
ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW-MEDIAN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
GULF AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES. 
 
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA 
 
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING 
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES 
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT 
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS. 
 
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE 
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT 
HTTP:/WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/DISC.HTML 
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT: 
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/FORECASTS.HTML (USE LOWERCASE LETTERS) 
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM 
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. 
 
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT 
MONTH ON FEB 16 2012 
 
 
1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011 
FORECAST RELEASE. 
$$