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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2016

THE JULY 2016 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING CLIMATE RELATIONSHIPS TO SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE TROPICS, AND
THE EL NINO OF LATE 2015 AND EARLY 2016 HAS ENDED AND WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN
THE CLIMATE CONDITIONS FOR NORTH AMERICA IN JULY. PLEASE SEE THE ENSO
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A
MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF ENSO CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE
MJO RECENTLY STRENGTHENED, BUT DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MJO SIGNAL
WILL WEAKEN BY JULY, AND MJO TELECONNECTIONS TO MID-LATITUDES ARE WEAKER DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE WARM SEASON. THE EVOLVING MJO, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF EARLY SEASON TROPICAL STORM SYSTEMS, WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE UPDATE ON
JUNE 30. WITH CURRENTLY WEAK TROPICAL TELECONNECTIONS, THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JULY 2016 ARE DERIVED PRIMARILY FROM THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS), THE NORTH
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
(IMME), MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WEEKS 3 AND 4 FROM THE CFS, JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL
AGENCY (JMA), AND ECMWF, AS WELL AS CLIMATE RELATIONSHIPS TO CURRENT SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS.

DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S., WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS SOIL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE ON JULY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS RANK ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, WITH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WEEK 3 AND 4 FORECASTS OF THE CFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SYSTEMS INDICATE A GREATER CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF
TEXAS. THE AREA OF EQUAL-CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS IS LARGELY BASED ON AREAS OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED NMME
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
ABOVE-MEDIAN SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AS INDICATED BY A CONSTRUCTED ANALOG OF
SOIL MOISTURE, STATISTICAL TOOL. HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CURRENT
EVAPORATIVE DRYING OF THE SOIL MOISTURE. THE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THAT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S., ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, WHICH
INCORPORATE THE DECADAL CLIMATE WARMING TRENDS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
INFLUENCE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS.

CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE NMME DYNAMICAL MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, POTENTIALLY RELATED TO ENHANCED TROPICAL
ACTIVITY. CALIBRATED NMME PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
DECADAL CLIMATE TREND, INDICATE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, INCLUDING THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES, WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

NMME, INCLUDING CFS, DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, SOUTHERN
COASTAL ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE MORE THAN 1.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATES AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.


FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JUL WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUNE 30 2016


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

$$

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