SUMMARY OF FORECASTS

For ENSO Condition and Other SST:

Dynamical methods: The improved Scripps/MPI hybrid coupled model predicts warming through winter 1997-98, into spring '98. The standard Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory model predicts cool conditions through summer 1997, warming to neutral by fall and slightly warm by winter 1997-98; the new model calls for cool through the same period, neutralizing during 1998. The NCEP coupled model calls for considerable warming through fall '97. The COLA coupled model forecasts warming to moderately above normal by summer and especially fall and winter 1997-98. The Australian BMRC low order coupled model predicts slightly warm conditions by Jul-Aug-Sep 1997, slowly weakening to normal by summer 1998. The Oxford coupled model calls for warming to normal by mid- to late 1997; the new model design (predicting change from ICs) forecasts greater warming, to moderate positive anomalies by winter 1997-98.

Statistical methods: CDC's inverse modeling predicts cool east-central Pacific SST weakening to neutral by late spring '97, becoming warmish by summer, fall and winter 1997-98; near-normal Caribbean SST, slightly warm northern tropical Atlantic SST during 1997. The Australian BMRC non-linear analogue predicts somewhat above normal SOI to May 1997. UCLA's (M)SSA-MEM predicts Niño 3 SST slowly becoming slightly warm by winter 1997-98, and SOI moving toward normal from above. Univ. of British Columbia's neural net model predicts some weakening of the cool Niño 3 SST toward neutral during 1997. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts Niño 3.4 (120-170W) SST warming through neutral by spring '97, to warm levels from late summer '97 to early '98. NOAA's constructed analog model predicts Niño 3.4 SST becoming slightly above normal by summer, reaching moderate warmth by winter 1997-98, then weakening. NCEP's 4-model consolidated forecast calls for warmish conditions by summer '97, cooling to somewhat below normal by winter 1997-98, returning to warm in spring '98. NCEP/CPC's CCA for U.S. coastal SST calls for warm SST eastern Gulf of Mex. Jun-Jul-Aug '97, warm west U.S. coast Mar-Apr-May '98.

For United States and Canadian Temperature:

Dynamical methods: The NCEP coupled model using predicted SST forecasts warm Pacific Northwest for Apr-May-Jun 1997; warm parts of Gulf Coast in Jul-Aug-Sep.

Statistical methods: NCEP/CPC's optimal climate normals predicts warm Southwest, Northwest, upper mid-Atlantic Apr-May-Jun '97. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts warm Southwest, Texas, southern Hawaii Apr-May-Jun '97. NCEP/CPC's screening multiple regression predicts warm in Northeast, Southeast, much of western third of U.S., cool central Gulf coast Apr-May-Jun '97; warm around much of periphery of U.S. Jun-Jul-Aug. The CCA of the Atmospheric Environment Service in Downsview, Ontario predicts coolness for Apr-May-Jun '97 for much of Canada (Yukon through Prairies, into Quebec).

For United States and Canadian Precipitation:

Statistical methods: The Texas A&M/MIT Kalman-merged forecast system predicts near normal Palmer Drought Severity along U.S. Gulf Coast through 1997. NCEP/CPC's optimal climate normals predicts wet Pacific Northwest Apr-May-Jun '97. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts wet Pacific Northwest, dry south Texas Apr-May-Jun '97. NCEP/CPC's screening multiple regression predicts for Apr-May-Jun '97 rainy around West Virginia, dry northeast Florida. The CCA of the Atmospheric Environment Service in Downsview, Ontario calls for normal to dry conditions in most of the relatively populated portions of Canada (exception: northern Quebec) for Apr-May-Jun '97.

For Tropical/Subtropical Rainfall:

Dynamical methods: The UK Met Office model predicts above-average rain in much of northeastern South America for Mar-Apr-May '97. The Scripps/MPI ECHAM3.2 atmospheric GCM predicts dry conditions there for Feb-Mar-Apr.

Statistical methods: The UK Met Office regression/discriminant analysis forecasts dry conditions for northeast Brazil (low confidence). The Univ. of Wisconsin regression/discriminant analysis predicts near to somewhat below average Nordeste rainfall Mar-Jun '97. The African Desk/NCEP CCA predicts dryish eastern and central Sahel, normal western Sahel for Jul-Sep '97. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts slight positive anomalies at certain tropical Pacific islands north of Equator for boreal spring/early summer 1997, with some dry tendency by late austral fall/winter '97 at certain islands south of, but closest to, the equator.

For 1997 Tropical Storm Activity (see December issue):

Statistical methods: The CSU LAD regression approach forecasts near to slightly above normal Atlantic tropical storm activity for '97. The FSU Poisson and tropical/baroclinic approach predicts an average '97 season for Atlantic hurricanes and intense hurricanes, and somewhat below normal chance of an intense hurricane in the Caribbean Sea. The BMRC forecast for Australian region tropical cyclones is for somewhat above average activity for 1996-97.

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