SUMMARY OF FORECASTS
For ENSO Condition:
Dynamical methods: The Scripps/MPI hybrid coupled model predicts warm conditions for winter 1996-97. The standard and the new Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory models predict continuing cold conditions through winter 1996-97. The NCEP coupled model calls for continuing somewhat cool SSTA in east-central Pacific from now to boreal winter 1996-97, but with some warming near dateline by then. The Australian BMRC low order coupled model forecasts current cool NiZo 3 SST to warm in second half of >96, with mild warm event winter 1996-97, lasting into spring. The Oxford coupled model calls for cool but moderating SST between now and winter 1996-97. The COLA coupled model predicts a warm episode for winter 1996-97, lasting into 1997.
Statistical methods: CDC=s
inverse modeling predicts continuation or even strengthening of
below normal east-central Pacific SST for summer '96, followed
by slow return to near-normal conditions by winter 1996-97. The
Australian BMRC nonlinear analogue predicts somewhat above
normal SOI to August 1996. UCLA=s
SSAMEM predicts NiZo
3 SST slowly increasing to normal by early '97, as SOI decreases
from high-normal to normal. JPL/Utah State=s
CSSA/MARS Aanalog@
system predicts a decrease to normal SOI conditions by 1997, negative
values 1998. Univ. of British Columbia=s
neural net model predicts a coolish-normal NiZo
3 for winter >96-=97.
The Chinese Academy of Sciences/NCEP EOF-iteration model calls
for slowly neutralizing SST through winter >96-97
with NiZo
4 above normal by then. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts slightly below
normal NiZo
3.4 (120E170EW)
SST neutralizing by early winter and becoming warm by late winter
'97. NOAA's constructed analog predicts dissipation of cool NiZo
3.4 SST by fall 1996, warming slightly for winter 1996-97 and
especially spring. NCEP=s
4-model consolidated forecast projects slightly cool SST through
1996, switching to slightly warm by boreal spring 1997.
For United States/Canadian and England Temperature:
Dynamical methods: The NCEP coupled model forecasts warmth in lee of northern U.S. Rockies Jul-Aug-Sep '96. The GISS SI95 climate model forecasts positive anomalies in southwest U.S. summer >96 (low to moderate confidence).
Statistical methods: The
UK Met. Office predicts somewhat cool for central England Jul-Aug
>96.
NCEP/CPC's optimal climate normals scheme predicts warm Southwest
and much of eastern half of U.S. Jul-Aug-Sep. NCEP/CPC's CCA
predicts positive anomalies much of eastern U.S., Texas, the Southwest,
California, Hawaii Jul-Aug-Sep. NCEP/CPC=s
screening multiple regression predicts above normal south Texas,
Lake Superior; cool South Carolina and Southwest in Jul-Aug-Sep.
The CCA of the Climate Research Branch in Downsview, Ontario
predicts cool in arctic Canada and southeastern Ontario, warm
most of western and south-central Canada Jul-Aug-Sep >96.
For United States/Canadian and Chilean Precipitation:
Dynamical methods: The GISS SI95 climate model predicts rainfall deficits in southwest U.S. summer >96 (low confidence). The NCEP coupled model does not forecast any coherent patterns in U.S. Jul-Aug-Sep. >96.
Statistical methods: NCEP/CPC=s
optimal climate normals and NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts no coherent
mainland U.S. patterns Jul-Aug-Sep, but CCA predicts wet southern
Hawaii. NCEP/CPC=s
screening multiple regression predicts dryness in Oregon, wet
New Mexico Jul-Aug-Sep. The CCA of the Climate Research Branch
in Downsview, Ontario calls for wet in much of arctic Canada for
Jul-Aug-Sep. The Univ. of Chile Dept. of Geophysics predicts
normal to dry conditions for central Chile for Jul-Aug >96.
For Tropical/Subtropical Rainfall:
Dynamical methods: The GISS SI95 climate model calls for wet in northeast Brazil summer >96.
Statistical methods: The
Univ. of Wisconsin neural net calls for near-average rainfall
for coastal East Africa for boreal autumn >96.
The UK Met. Office multiple regression and discriminant analysis
forecasts indicate dry conditions for tropical North Africa (except
wet Guinea Coast) for Jul-Aug-Sep >96
(w.r.t. 1951-80 mean). The NCEP/African Desk=s
CCA predicts normal to slightly wet in Sahel Jul-Aug-Sep >96
(w.r.t. 1955-94 mean). NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts weak anomalies
at most tropical Pacific islands through boreal winter 1996-97,
with dry tendency spring >97
in U.S.-affiliated islands sensitive to warm ENSO conditions.
For 1996 Tropical Storm Activity:
Statistical methods: The
CSU LAD regression approach forecasts approx. near normal Atlantic
>96
tropical storm activity. The FSU Poisson and tropical/baroclinic
approach (see December issue) predicts approx. average >96
season for Atlantic hurricanes, somewhat below average for intense
hurricanes. FSU=s
Bayesian probabilistic model (see March issue) indicates 1.25
(~60% of normal) intense Atlantic hurricanes for 1996.