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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EST THU FEB 16 2017



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2017



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY FROM NEAR ZERO TO POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE C.

FOR JANUARY 2017, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 0.20 INCHES (5 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.21 INCHES (9 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 0.55 INCHES (19 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 12.34 INCHES (133 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MARCH 2017. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR HAWAII DURING MARCH 2017.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A60 72.0 0.6 EC 5.7 10.8 15.2
KAHULUI A60 72.9 0.5 EC 1.4 1.9 2.9
HONOLULU A60 74.7 0.5 EC 0.6 0.8 1.9
LIHUE A60 72.7 0.6 EC 1.9 2.6 3.6


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2017 - MAM 2018



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA, AND DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, FOR THE GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  POSITIVE SUBSURFACE ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE THERMOCLINE ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2017.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM MAM 2017 TO JAS 2017 DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUSLY ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ASO 2017 AND BEYOND.

THE NCEP CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) TOOL FAVORS BELOW MEDIA RAINFALL FOR HAWAII FROM NDJ 2017 TO JFM 2018. SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT A WARM EVENT (EL NINO) BY THE NORTHERN SUMMER AND FALL, CONTINUING INTO WINTER 2017-18. IF CORRECT, HISTORICAL EL NINO COMPOSITES FAVOR INCREASED ODDS FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR HAWAII IN WINTER, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST FROM THE CA TOOL.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2017 A70 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2017 A65 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2017 A60 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2017 A50 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2017 A40 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2017 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2017 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2017 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.4 B40 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2018 EC 72.8 0.4 B40 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2018 EC 71.8 0.4 B40 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2018 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2018 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
\N

KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2017 A70 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2017 A65 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2017 A60 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2017 A50 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2017 A40 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2017 EC 75.9 0.4 B40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2018 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2018 EC 72.5 0.4 B40 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2018 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2018 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
\N

HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2017 A70 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2017 A65 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2017 A60 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2017 A50 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2017 A40 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2017 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2017 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2017 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2017 EC 77.7 0.5 B40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2018 EC 75.3 0.5 B40 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2018 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2018 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2018 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
\N

LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2017 A70 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2017 A65 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2017 A60 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2017 A50 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2017 A40 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2017 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2017 EC 75.7 0.3 B40 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2018 EC 73.6 0.4 B40 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2018 EC 72.2 0.4 B40 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2018 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2018 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
\N
FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS


CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.


NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAR 16, 2017.


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