Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 

830AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013 
 


MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2013 
 


SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C. 
 
FOR JANUARY 2013 THROUGH THE END OF APRIL, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: 
 
- LIHUE AIRPORT 14.22 INCHES (103 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.77 INCHES (112 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 6.20 INCHES (71 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
- HILO AIRPORT 38.61 INCHES (88 PERCENT OF NORMAL) 
 
 
THE CONSENSUS AMONG CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICTS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JUNE 2013. THE NMME MODEL ALSO GIVES NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN JUNE 2013.
 
 

 
  TEMPERATURE   PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
HILO   EC  75.4  0.4   EC  5.3  6.3  8.7
KAHULUI   EC  78.0  0.5   EC  0.1  0.1  0.2
HONOLULU   EC  80.3  0.4   EC  0.1  0.2  0.3
LIHUE   EC  78.1  0.4   EC  1.1  1.3  1.6
 
 

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2013 - JJA 2014 
 


REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. DURING THE LAST 4-WEEKS, SSTS WERE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PACIFIC AND BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR-ZERO SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE NOW PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE TROPICAL LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS REMAINED SLIGHTLY ENHANCED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC BASIN, AND ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. TROPICAL CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT FOR CONTINUING ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER, 2013. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR NINO 3.4 SST'S OF A FEW TENTHS OF A DEGREE C ABOVE AVERAGE, WHILE STATISTICAL MODELS TEND TO KEEP SST ANOMALIES NEUTRAL BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE YEAR.  CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, WITH THE CONSENSUS OF BOTH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS FAVORING NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE 2013.  OVERALL ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED THROUGH NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2013. 
 
BELOW BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM JJA TO SON 2013 ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS. THE NMME MODEL GIVES NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
 
 


 HILO
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
JJA 2013   EC  75.2  0.4  B40  19.4  27.2  31.4
JAS 2013   EC  76.1  0.4  B40  25.2  28.6  33.4
ASO 2013   EC  76.4  0.4  B40  26.1  28.8  33.3
SON 2013   EC  76.2  0.4  B40  24.3  30.2  40.8
OND 2013   EC  75.5  0.4   EC  28.3  34.5  42.0
NDJ 2013   EC  74.2  0.4   EC  26.4  36.6  43.0
DJF 2014   EC  72.8  0.4   EC  19.6  30.2  33.3
JFM 2014   EC  71.8  0.4   EC  22.0  32.0  44.5
FMA 2014   EC  71.7  0.4   EC  24.6  34.1  45.5
MAM 2014   EC  72.0  0.5   EC  22.5  28.4  34.0
AMJ 2014   EC  72.9  0.5   EC  21.4  23.7  29.0
MJJ 2014   EC  74.0  0.4   EC  20.2  27.5  29.1
JJA 2014   EC  75.2  0.4   EC  19.4  27.2  31.4
 
 


 KAHULUI
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
JJA 2013   EC  77.7  0.4  B40  0.7  1.1  1.5 
JAS 2013   EC  79.0  0.4  B40  0.8  1.1  1.6 
ASO 2013   EC  79.4  0.4  B40  0.8  1.6  2.5 
SON 2013   EC  79.1  0.4  B40  2.1  3.3  4.8 
OND 2013   EC  77.8  0.4   EC  4.2  5.3  8.1 
NDJ 2013   EC  75.9  0.4   EC  5.2  7.6  9.5 
DJF 2014   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  4.6  6.9  8.7 
JFM 2014   EC  72.5  0.4   EC  4.2  6.2  8.2 
FMA 2014   EC  72.3  0.4   EC  3.2  4.1  6.4 
MAM 2014   EC  73.0  0.4   EC  2.5  3.5  4.6 
AMJ 2014   EC  74.3  0.5   EC  1.2  1.6  2.2 
MJJ 2014   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  0.7  1.1  1.8 
JJA 2014   EC  77.7  0.4   EC  0.7  1.1  1.5 
 
 


 HONOLULU
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
JJA 2013   EC  79.9  0.4  B40  0.7  0.8  1.3 
JAS 2013   EC  81.3  0.4  B40  1.0  1.4  1.7 
ASO 2013   EC  81.7  0.4  B40  1.6  2.4  3.1 
SON 2013   EC  81.4  0.4  B40  2.5  4.0  5.6 
OND 2013   EC  80.0  0.4   EC  4.4  6.4  8.5 
NDJ 2013   EC  77.7  0.5   EC  3.9  5.6  8.8 
DJF 2014   EC  75.3  0.5   EC  3.7  5.6  8.6 
JFM 2014   EC  73.9  0.4   EC  2.1  4.6  7.8 
FMA 2014   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  1.9  3.2  4.7 
MAM 2014   EC  74.8  0.4   EC  1.8  2.6  3.0 
AMJ 2014   EC  76.3  0.4   EC  1.2  1.6  1.8 
MJJ 2014   EC  78.2  0.4   EC  0.8  1.4  1.6 
JJA 2014   EC  79.9  0.4   EC  0.7  0.8  1.3 
 
 


 LIHUE
 TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
   FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
JJA 2013   EC  77.7  0.4  B40  4.4  5.3  6.9 
JAS 2013   EC  79.0  0.3  B40  5.3  6.1  7.8 
ASO 2013   EC  79.4  0.3  B40  6.2  7.9  8.4 
SON 2013   EC  79.1  0.3  B40  9.2  10.0  11.2
OND 2013   EC  77.8  0.3   EC  9.2  11.7  15.6
NDJ 2013   EC  75.7  0.3   EC  8.6  12.1  16.9
DJF 2014   EC  73.6  0.4   EC  7.5  8.4  14.0
JFM 2014   EC  72.2  0.4   EC  6.5  8.8  13.8
FMA 2014   EC  72.1  0.5   EC  5.8  8.4  9.9 
MAM 2014   EC  72.8  0.5   EC  5.3  6.6  8.0 
AMJ 2014   EC  74.2  0.5   EC  4.7  5.5  6.0 
MJJ 2014   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  4.9  5.4  5.9 
JJA 2014   EC  77.7  0.4   EC  4.4  5.3  6.9 
 
 

FORECASTER: LUKE HE 
 


ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS 


 
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED. 


 
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUN 20, 2013.
 
 
$$