Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JUNE 2025 
 
Sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the range of +0.5 to +1.5 degrees Celsius (C) were observed around the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. 
 
From January through April 2025, rainfall total accumulations were: 
 
Lihue Airport 7.76 inches (55 percent of average) 
 
Honolulu Airport 8.24 inches (119 percent of average) 
 
Kahului Airport 6.39 inches (76 percent of average) 
 
Hilo Airport 20.25 inches (50 percent of average) 
 
Most climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME/C3S) predict positive SST anomalies around the Hawaiian Islands in June 2025. Some models predict weak or near zero SST anomalies near the southeastern Hawaiian Islands in June 2025. Above normal temperatures are favored for all of the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and Hawaii or the Big Island) for June with lower probabilities indicated for the southeastern islands of Maui (Kahului) and Hawaii (Hilo), based on model forecasts. 
 
For the June 2025 precipitation outlook, most models of the NMME and IMME predict above normal precipitation across Kauai and Oahu. Most models of the NMME and IMME also predict below normal precipitation for the Big Island of Hawaii in June. Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated for Maui, where forecast models have mixed outcomes and weak signals . 
 
 
 





  TEMPERATURE   PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 Hilo  A60  75.4  0.4  B40  5.3  6.3  8.7
 Kahului  A65  78.0  0.5   EC  0.1  0.1  0.2
 Honolulu  A70  80.3  0.4  A40  0.1  0.2  0.3
 Lihue  A70  78.1  0.4  A45  1.1  1.3  1.6
 
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JJA 2025 - JJA 2026 
 
Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska for a description of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. ENSO-neutral conditions continued over the Pacific Ocean through April. Equatorial SST anomalies are near zero across much of the Pacific Ocean. Weak negative SST anomalies are observed over parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, while weak positive SST anomalies are observed over the far western Pacific Ocean near the Maritime Islands. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean have dissipated in the last several weeks. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies persist at depths of 50 to 300 meters in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. Low-level (850-hPa) wind anomalies are near zero across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies are near zero across most of the Pacific Ocean, while southerly cross-equatorial upper-level wind anomalies are observed over the western Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection and precipitation were observed over the western and central Pacific Ocean to the north of the equator, while enhanced convection and precipitation were observed over parts of the Maritime Islands to the west. 
 
Most dynamical and statistical models predict a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions into boreal summer. Some models, such as the CPC SST Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) predict the development of a La Niña in autumn by forecasts of negative Niño 3.4 region SST anomalies below the -0.5 C threshold. ENSO-neutral conditions are forecast in the CPC ENSO Outlook with a greater probability than La Niña through the December-January-February season, although the probability of the development of La Niña increases through the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter, with some statistical tools indicating La Niña is more likely. Development of La Niña would alter the probabilities of precipitation for the Hawaiian Islands, especially in boreal winter, but the state of ENSO at longer lead times is somewhat uncertain as of spring 2025. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are indicated in the official outlook for Lihue, Honolulu, Kahului and Hilo for JJA (June-July-August) through October-November-December (OND) 2025, supported by nearly all dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and C3S, as well as decadal timescale temperature trends . Probabilities for above normal temperatures are greater for northwestern islands of Hawaii, exceeding 70 percent in early seasons, following calibrated model guidance from the NMME. Due to increasing uncertainty in the state of ENSO and weakening signals  in forecast guidance at longer leads, Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are indicated for Hawaii beginning in NDJ (November-December-January) 2025 and extending through longer leads. 
 
Enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are forecast over the northwestern Hawaiian Islands of Kauai and Oahu from JJA to August-September-October (ASO) 2025, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts, as well decadal trends . Dynamical model forecasts of positive SST anomalies surrounding the northwestern Hawaiian Islands also support forecasts of above normal precipitation. Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast for the southeastern Big Island of Hawaii from JJA to September-October-November (SON) 2025, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts, as well decadal timescale precipitation trends . Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal precipitation are indicated for Maui (Kahului) for all outlooks, with uncertainty in the transition from wetter conditions to the northwest and drier conditions to the southeast. Beginning in OND 2025 for the Big Island and SON 2025 for northwestern islands of Kauai and Oahu and extending through longer leads, EC is indicated in the seasonal precipitation outlook. Uncertainty in the state of ENSO beginning in OND 2025 results in weaker signals  and near climatological probabilities in the seasonal outlook. 
 
 
















 Hilo
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JJA 2025  A65  75.2  0.4  B40  19.4  27.2  31.4
 JAS 2025  A65  76.1  0.4  B40  25.2  28.6  33.4
 ASO 2025  A60  76.4  0.4  B40  26.1  28.8  33.3
 SON 2025  A60  76.2  0.4  B40  24.3  30.2  40.8
 OND 2025  A60  75.5  0.4   EC  28.3  34.5  42.0
 NDJ 2025   EC  74.2  0.4   EC  26.4  36.6  43.0
 DJF 2026   EC  72.8  0.4   EC  19.6  30.2  33.3
 JFM 2026   EC  71.8  0.4   EC  22.0  32.0  44.5
 FMA 2026   EC  71.7  0.4   EC  24.6  34.1  45.5
 MAM 2026   EC  72.0  0.5   EC  22.5  28.4  34.0
 AMJ 2026   EC  72.9  0.5   EC  21.4  23.7  29.0
 MJJ 2026   EC  74.0  0.4   EC  20.2  27.5  29.1
 JJA 2026   EC  75.2  0.4   EC  19.4  27.2  31.4
 

















 Kahului
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JJA 2025  A70  77.7  0.4   EC  0.7  1.1  1.5 
 JAS 2025  A70  79.0  0.4   EC  0.8  1.1  1.6 
 ASO 2025  A70  79.4  0.4   EC  0.8  1.6  2.5 
 SON 2025  A65  79.1  0.4   EC  2.1  3.3  4.8 
 OND 2025  A60  77.8  0.4   EC  4.2  5.3  8.1 
 NDJ 2025   EC  75.9  0.4   EC  5.2  7.6  9.5 
 DJF 2026   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  4.6  6.9  8.7 
 JFM 2026   EC  72.5  0.4   EC  4.2  6.2  8.2 
 FMA 2026   EC  72.3  0.4   EC  3.2  4.1  6.4 
 MAM 2026   EC  73.0  0.4   EC  2.5  3.5  4.6 
 AMJ 2026   EC  74.3  0.5   EC  1.2  1.6  2.2 
 MJJ 2026   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  0.7  1.1  1.8 
 JJA 2026   EC  77.7  0.4   EC  0.7  1.1  1.5 
 

















 Honolulu
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JJA 2025  A70  79.9  0.4  A40  0.7  0.8  1.3 
 JAS 2025  A70  81.3  0.4  A40  1.0  1.4  1.7 
 ASO 2025  A70  81.7  0.4  A40  1.6  2.4  3.1 
 SON 2025  A65  81.4  0.4   EC  2.5  4.0  5.6 
 OND 2025  A60  80.0  0.4   EC  4.4  6.4  8.5 
 NDJ 2025   EC  77.7  0.5   EC  3.9  5.6  8.8 
 DJF 2026   EC  75.3  0.5   EC  3.7  5.6  8.6 
 JFM 2026   EC  73.9  0.4   EC  2.1  4.6  7.8 
 FMA 2026   EC  73.8  0.4   EC  1.9  3.2  4.7 
 MAM 2026   EC  74.8  0.4   EC  1.8  2.6  3.0 
 AMJ 2026   EC  76.3  0.4   EC  1.2  1.6  1.8 
 MJJ 2026   EC  78.2  0.4   EC  0.8  1.4  1.6 
 JJA 2026   EC  79.9  0.4   EC  0.7  0.8  1.3 
 

















 Lihue
  TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
    FCST  AVE  LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
 JJA 2025  A70  77.7  0.4  A40  4.4  5.3  6.9 
 JAS 2025  A70  79.0  0.3  A40  5.3  6.1  7.8 
 ASO 2025  A70  79.4  0.3  A40  6.2  7.9  8.4 
 SON 2025  A65  79.1  0.3   EC  9.2  10.0  11.2
 OND 2025  A60  77.8  0.3   EC  9.2  11.7  15.6
 NDJ 2025   EC  75.7  0.3   EC  8.6  12.1  16.9
 DJF 2026   EC  73.6  0.4   EC  7.5  8.4  14.0
 JFM 2026   EC  72.2  0.4   EC  6.5  8.8  13.8
 FMA 2026   EC  72.1  0.5   EC  5.8  8.4  9.9 
 MAM 2026   EC  72.8  0.5   EC  5.3  6.6  8.0 
 AMJ 2026   EC  74.2  0.5   EC  4.7  5.5  6.0 
 MJJ 2026   EC  76.0  0.5   EC  4.9  5.4  5.9 
 JJA 2026   EC  77.7  0.4   EC  4.4  5.3  6.9 
 

FORECASTER: Dan Collins 
 
Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. 
 
CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. 
 
NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Jun 19, 2025.
 
 
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