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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THU APR 17 2008
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR MAY 2008
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2008 THROUGH THE END OF MARCH - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 2.72 INCHES (24 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.71 INCHES (10 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 2.46 INCHES (29 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 58.49 INCHES (177 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE - HONOLULU AND KAHULUI
FOR MAY 2008. NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MAY 2008.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO EC 73.8 0.6 EC 5.9 7.4 8.1
KAHULUI A40 75.7 0.7 EC 0.2 0.5 0.6
HONOLULU A40 77.6 0.4 EC 0.2 0.4 0.8
LIHUE A40 75.7 0.6 EC 1.2 1.7 2.6
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR MJJ 2008 TO MJJ 2009
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THE LA NINA
EVENT IS WEAKENING - A MODERATE-STRENGTH LA NIŅA CONTINUES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SSTS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FROM
WEST OF THE DATE LINE EASTWARD TO 125W - BUT NEGATIVE DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING SINCE MID-FEBRUARY 2008. WARM SUB-SURFACE ANOMALIES IN THE WEST HAVE
STRENGTHENED RECENTLY - WHILE COOL ANOMALIES IN THE EAST HAVE WEAKENED. THE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY REFLECT LA NINA. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - AND ENHANCED CONVECTION COVERED THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC.
BASED ON CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND RECENT TRENDS - LA NINA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FROM MJJ
TO SON 2008 - KAHULUI FROM JJA TO ASO 2008 - HONOLULU FROM JJA TO ASO 2008 AND
LIHUE FOR JAS 2008. MODELS ALSO PREDICT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JAS
2008.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2008 B40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2008 B40 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2008 B40 76.3 0.4 B40 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2008 B40 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2008 B40 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2008 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2008 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2009 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2009 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2009 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2009 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2009 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2008 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2008 B40 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2008 B40 79.1 0.5 B40 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2008 B40 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2008 B40 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2008 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2008 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2009 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2009 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2009 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2009 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2008 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2008 B40 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2008 B40 81.2 0.4 B40 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2008 B40 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2008 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2008 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2009 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2009 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2009 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2009 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2009 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2008 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2008 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2008 B40 79.3 0.3 B40 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2008 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2008 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2008 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2008 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2009 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2009 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2009 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2009 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE
TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW
NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER
EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL
PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT
THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK.
FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS
SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAY 15, 2008
$$
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