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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU JUN 15 2017



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2017



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY FROM POSITIVE ONE-HALF TO ONE DEGREE C.

FOR JANUARY 2017 THROUGH THE END OF MAY 2017, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 13.48 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 14.71 INCHES (194 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 14.47 INCHES (152 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 34.65 INCHES (67 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JULY 2017. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR HAWAII DURING JULY 2017.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A60 76.2 0.4 EC 7.1 9.5 11.4
KAHULUI A60 79.2 0.4 EC 0.2 0.4 0.5
HONOLULU A60 81.4 0.5 EC 0.2 0.4 0.5
LIHUE A60 79.2 0.4 EC 1.5 1.7 1.9


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2017 - JAS 2018



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA, AND DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, FOR THE GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WERE NEAR AVERAGE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS WERE MEASURED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. WEAK POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAK NEGATIVE ANOMALIES HAVE EMERGED AT DEPTH NEAR 150 W. ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION ANOMALIES WERE WEAK OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE THE LOWER-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE NEAR AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE NCEP CFSV2 AND MOST OF THE MODELS FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NMME ARE NOW FAVORING THE CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL. IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK, ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED (ABOUT 50 TO 55% CHANCE) THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL 2017.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM JAS 2017 TO NDJ 2017 DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUSLY ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CPC'S STATISTICAL TOOL (CONSTRUCTED ANALOG). EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR DJF 2018 AND BEYOND.

THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO NDJ 2017. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND NMME FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO NDJ 2017. CPC CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) TOOL FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION FOR THE INCOMING WINTER SEASONS FROM DJF TO JFM 2018. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII IN FMA 2018 AND LONGER LEADS.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2017 A65 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2017 A60 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2017 A60 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2017 A55 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2017 A45 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2018 EC 72.8 0.4 B40 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2018 EC 71.8 0.4 B40 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2018 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2018 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2018 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2018 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2018 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2018 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
\N

KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2017 A65 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2017 A60 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2017 A60 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2017 A55 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2017 A45 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2018 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2018 EC 72.5 0.4 B40 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2018 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2018 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2018 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2018 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2018 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2018 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
\N

HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2017 A70 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2017 A65 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2017 A60 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2017 A55 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2017 A45 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2018 EC 75.3 0.5 B40 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2018 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2018 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2018 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2018 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2018 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2018 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2018 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
\N

LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2017 A70 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2017 A65 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2017 A65 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2017 A60 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2017 A50 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2018 EC 73.6 0.4 B40 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2018 EC 72.2 0.4 B40 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2018 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2018 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2018 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2018 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2018 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2018 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
\N
FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS


CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.


NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 20, 2017.


$$

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