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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU JAN 19 2017

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2017

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE 
CURRENTLY NEAR ZERO AND POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE C.

FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL 
ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 13.39 INCHES (36 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 13.16 INCHES (77 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 18.85 INCHES (106 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 128.43 INCHES (101 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART 
OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 
SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SLIGHTLY ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF 
ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN FEBRUARY 
2017. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED 
BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR HAWAII DURING FEBRUARY 2017. 

           TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE    LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
HILO       A50   71.4   0.5  B40   5.0   8.4   11.1
KAHULUI    A50   71.9   0.6  B40   0.9   1.1   1.8
HONOLULU   A50   73.3   0.5  B40   0.7   1.0   1.4
LIHUE      A50   71.7   0.6  B40   1.3   1.8   4.0

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2017 - FMA 2018

REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS 
AND ALASKA, DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, AND THE 
GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT 
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. LA NINA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT 
ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) 
ARE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NEGATIVE 
SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WEAKENED ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC 
OCEAN, WHILE POSITIVE SUBSURFACE ANOMALIES INCREASED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED OVER THE 
WESTERN PACIFIC, AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL 
PACIFIC AND ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA. A TRANSITION TO ENSO NEUTRAL IS EXPECTED 
TO OCCUR BY FEBRUARY 2017, WITH ENSO NEUTRAL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST 
HALF OF 2017.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII 
FROM FMA 2017 TO JJA 2017 DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUSLY ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR JAS 2017 AND BEYOND.

CFS AND IMME (THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AT NCEP) TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE 
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN FMA 2017. THE SIGNALS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION DIMINISH IN MAM 2017, AND EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR 
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN MAM 2017 AND LONGER 
LEADS.

                      HILO
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2017  A70  71.7   0.4   A40   24.6   34.1   45.5
MAM 2017  A65  72.0   0.5    EC   22.5   28.4   34.0
AMJ 2017  A60  72.9   0.5    EC   21.4   23.7   29.0
MJJ 2017  A50  74.0   0.4    EC   20.2   27.5   29.1
JJA 2017  A40  75.2   0.4    EC   19.4   27.2   31.4
JAS 2017   EC  76.1   0.4    EC   25.2   28.6   33.4
ASO 2017   EC  76.4   0.4    EC   26.1   28.8   33.3
SON 2017   EC  76.2   0.4    EC   24.3   30.2   40.8
OND 2017   EC  75.5   0.4    EC   28.3   34.5   42.0
NDJ 2017   EC  74.2   0.4    EC   26.4   36.6   43.0
DJF 2018   EC  72.8   0.4    EC   19.6   30.2   33.3
JFM 2018   EC  71.8   0.4    EC   22.0   32.0   44.5
FMA 2018   EC  71.7   0.4    EC   24.6   34.1   45.5

                      KAHULUI
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2017  A70  72.3   0.4   A40   3.2    4.1    6.4 
MAM 2017  A65  73.0   0.4    EC   2.5    3.5    4.6 
AMJ 2017  A60  74.3   0.5    EC   1.2    1.6    2.2 
MJJ 2017  A50  76.0   0.5    EC   0.7    1.1    1.8 
JJA 2017  A40  77.7   0.4    EC   0.7    1.1    1.5 
JAS 2017   EC  79.0   0.4    EC   0.8    1.1    1.6 
ASO 2017   EC  79.4   0.4    EC   0.8    1.6    2.5 
SON 2017   EC  79.1   0.4    EC   2.1    3.3    4.8 
OND 2017   EC  77.8   0.4    EC   4.2    5.3    8.1 
NDJ 2017   EC  75.9   0.4    EC   5.2    7.6    9.5 
DJF 2018   EC  73.8   0.4    EC   4.6    6.9    8.7 
JFM 2018   EC  72.5   0.4    EC   4.2    6.2    8.2 
FMA 2018   EC  72.3   0.4    EC   3.2    4.1    6.4 

                      HONOLULU
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2017  A70  73.8   0.4   A40   1.9    3.2    4.7 
MAM 2017  A65  74.8   0.4    EC   1.8    2.6    3.0 
AMJ 2017  A60  76.3   0.4    EC   1.2    1.6    1.8 
MJJ 2017  A50  78.2   0.4    EC   0.8    1.4    1.6 
JJA 2017  A40  79.9   0.4    EC   0.7    0.8    1.3 
JAS 2017   EC  81.3   0.4    EC   1.0    1.4    1.7 
ASO 2017   EC  81.7   0.4    EC   1.6    2.4    3.1 
SON 2017   EC  81.4   0.4    EC   2.5    4.0    5.6 
OND 2017   EC  80.0   0.4    EC   4.4    6.4    8.5 
NDJ 2017   EC  77.7   0.5    EC   3.9    5.6    8.8 
DJF 2018   EC  75.3   0.5    EC   3.7    5.6    8.6 
JFM 2018   EC  73.9   0.4    EC   2.1    4.6    7.8 
FMA 2018   EC  73.8   0.4    EC   1.9    3.2    4.7 

                      LIHUE
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2017  A70  72.1   0.5   A40   5.8    8.4    9.9 
MAM 2017  A65  72.8   0.5    EC   5.3    6.6    8.0 
AMJ 2017  A60  74.2   0.5    EC   4.7    5.5    6.0 
MJJ 2017  A50  76.0   0.5    EC   4.9    5.4    5.9 
JJA 2017  A40  77.7   0.4    EC   4.4    5.3    6.9 
JAS 2017   EC  79.0   0.3    EC   5.3    6.1    7.8 
ASO 2017   EC  79.4   0.3    EC   6.2    7.9    8.4 
SON 2017   EC  79.1   0.3    EC   9.2    10.0   11.2
OND 2017   EC  77.8   0.3    EC   9.2    11.7   15.6
NDJ 2017   EC  75.7   0.3    EC   8.6    12.1   16.9
DJF 2018   EC  73.6   0.4    EC   7.5    8.4    14.0
JFM 2018   EC  72.2   0.4    EC   6.5    8.8    13.8
FMA 2018   EC  72.1   0.5    EC   5.8    8.4    9.9 

FORECASTER: LUKE HE

ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS

CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY 
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE 
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT 
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR 
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE 
ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL 
BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL 
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.

NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID 

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