Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn SON 2017
    1.5mn OND 2017
    2.5mn NDJ 2017
    3.5mn DJF 2017
    4.5mn JFM 2018
    5.5mn FMA 2018
    6.5mn MAM 2018
    7.5mn AMJ 2018
    8.5mn MJJ 2018
    9.5mn JJA 2018
   10.5mn JAS 2018
   11.5mn ASO 2018
   12.5mn SON 2018
    0.5mn Sep 2017


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU AUG 17 2017



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SEPTEMBER 2017



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN ZERO DEGREE AND POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C, WITH HIGHER ANOMALIES NEAR THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS.

FOR JANUARY 2017 THROUGH THE END OF JULY 2017, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 16.39 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 14.04 INCHES (168 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 14.84 INCHES (145 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 44.74 INCHES (64 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE FOR SEPTEMBER 2017. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN SEPTEMBER 2017. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR HAWAII DURING SEPTEMBER 2017.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A55 76.4 0.5 EC 8.0 9.3 11.0
KAHULUI A60 79.3 0.4 EC 0.1 0.2 0.5
HONOLULU A65 81.8 0.4 EC 0.4 0.6 0.8
LIHUE A65 79.4 0.3 EC 1.7 1.9 2.6


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID SON 2017 - SON 2018



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA, AND DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, FOR THE GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WERE NEAR AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES STRENGTHENED AT DEPTH WITH MAXIMUM STRENGTH AROUND 150W. ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION, AS INDICATED IN OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION ANOMALIES, WAS NEAR AVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC AND ENHANCED OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE NEAR AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE NCEP CFSV2 AND MOST OF THE MODELS FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NMME ARE NOW FAVORING THE CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 2017. IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK, ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2017-18.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM SON 2017 TO JFM 2018 DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUSLY ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR FMA 2018 AND BEYOND.

THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS FOR HAWAII FROM SON TO JFM 2018. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM SON TO JFM 2018. THE CPC CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) TOOL FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI, AND HILO FOR FMA TO AMJ 2018. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII IN MJJ 2018 AND LONGER LEADS.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2017 A65 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2017 A60 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2017 A60 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2018 A55 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2018 A45 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2018 EC 71.7 0.4 B40 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2018 EC 72.0 0.5 B40 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2018 EC 72.9 0.5 B40 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2018 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2018 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2018 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2018 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2018 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
\N

KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2017 A65 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2017 A60 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2017 A60 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2018 A55 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2018 A45 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2018 EC 72.3 0.4 B40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2018 EC 73.0 0.4 B40 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2018 EC 74.3 0.5 B40 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2018 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2018 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2018 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2018 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2018 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
\N

HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2017 A70 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2017 A65 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2017 A60 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2018 A55 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2018 A45 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2018 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2018 EC 74.8 0.4 B40 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2018 EC 76.3 0.4 B40 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2018 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2018 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2018 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2018 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2018 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
\N

LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2017 A70 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2017 A65 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2017 A65 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2018 A60 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2018 A50 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2018 EC 72.1 0.5 B40 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2018 EC 72.8 0.5 B40 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2018 EC 74.2 0.5 B40 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2018 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2018 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2018 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2018 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2018 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
\N
FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS


CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.


NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU SEP 21, 2017.


$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities