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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
  PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2016

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE AND POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C. FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF MAY 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: - LIHUE AIRPORT 6.43 INCHES (41 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 4.04 INCHES (53 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 7.73 INCHES (81 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HILO AIRPORT 24.93 INCHES (48 PERCENT OF NORMAL) THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF JULY 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JULY 2016. NCEP TOOLS INDICATE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN JULY 2016.

 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A60 76.2 0.4 EC 7.1 9.5 11.4
KAHULUI A60 79.2 0.4 EC 0.2 0.4 0.5
HONOLULU A60 81.4 0.5 EC 0.2 0.4 0.5
LIHUE A60 79.2 0.4 EC 1.5 1.7 1.9

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2016 - JAS 2017

REFER TO THE 90-DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES ARE IN ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITION. POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SSTS WERE ABOVE AVERAGE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE AND NEAR-TO-BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE ANOMALIES WERE EVIDENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND EXTEND TO THE SURFACE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC. UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL WINDS, AS WELL AS CONVECTION WERE ALL NEAR AVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC. LA NINA IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER 2016, WITH ABOUT A 75% CHANCE OF LA NINA DURING THE FALL AND WINTER 2016-17. NMME MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM JAS 2016 TO DJF 2016-17. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR JFM 2017 AND BEYOND. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII FROM JAS TO ASO 2016. ALTHOUGH THE MME PREDICTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM SON TO NDJ, THERE IS A DRYING TREND IN HAWAII RAINFALL IN LA NINA YEARS DURING LAST 30 YEARS. HENCE THE RAINFALL FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN FOR THE INCOMING HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WET SEASON (OCT-APR). EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN SON 2016 AND LONGER LEADS.

HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2016 A60 76.1 0.4 A40 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2016 A60 76.4 0.4 A40 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2016 A60 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2016 A60 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2016 A50 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2017 A40 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2017 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2017 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2017 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2017 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2017 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2017 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2017 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4

KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2016 A60 79.0 0.4 A40 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2016 A60 79.4 0.4 A40 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2016 A60 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2016 A60 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2016 A50 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2017 A40 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2017 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2017 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2017 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2017 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6

HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2016 A60 81.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2016 A60 81.7 0.4 A40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2016 A60 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2016 A60 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2016 A50 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2017 A40 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2017 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2017 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2017 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2017 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2017 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2017 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7

LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2016 A60 79.0 0.3 A40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2016 A60 79.4 0.3 A40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2016 A60 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2016 A60 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2016 A50 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2017 A40 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2017 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2017 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2017 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2017 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2017 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8

FORECASTER: LUKE HE

ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS

CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.

NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 21, 2016.
$$

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