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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EDT THU APR 21 2016



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAY 2016



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN ZERO AND POSITIVE ONE DEGREE C.

FROM JANUARY 2016 THROUGH THE END OF MARCH 2016, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 3.79 INCHES (33 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.65 INCHES (10 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 3.50 INCHES (49 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 9.46 INCHES (29 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE CFS AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY 2016. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MAY 2016. NCEP TOOLS INDICATE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN MAY 2016.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A60 74.0 0.5 EC 4.1 7.4 8.7
KAHULUI A60 75.8 0.6 EC 0.2 0.5 0.8
HONOLULU A60 78.0 0.6 EC 0.2 0.4 0.8
LIHUE A60 75.8 0.6 EC 1.3 1.5 2.3


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MJJ 2016 - MJJ 2017



REFER TO THE 90-DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTINUED IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, BUT THE CURRENT EVENT IS IN ITS DECAYING PHASE. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES DECREASED IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC COMPARED TO LAST MONTH. THE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC DECREASED TO NEGATIVE ANOMALY VALUES. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES, AS WELL AS CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC, ALL WEAKENED. A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL IS LIKELY DURING LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER 2016, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LA NINA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THE LATER SUMMER OR AUTUMN 2016.

NMME MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII FROM MJJ 2016 TO SON 2016. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR OND 2016 AND BEYOND.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII FROM JAS TO SON 2016. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE-, NEAR-, OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM MJJ TO JJA 2016, AND FOR OND 2016 AND LONGER LEADS.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2016 A60 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2016 A60 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2016 A60 76.1 0.4 A40 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2016 A60 76.4 0.4 A50 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2016 A50 76.2 0.4 A55 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2016 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2016 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2017 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2017 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2017 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2017 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2017 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2017 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1



KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2016 A60 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2016 A60 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2016 A60 79.0 0.4 A40 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2016 A60 79.4 0.4 A50 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2016 A50 79.1 0.4 A55 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2016 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2016 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2017 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2017 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2017 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2017 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8



HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2016 A60 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2016 A60 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2016 A60 81.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2016 A60 81.7 0.4 A50 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2016 A50 81.4 0.4 A55 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2016 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2016 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2017 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2017 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2017 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2017 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2017 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2017 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6



LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2016 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2016 A60 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2016 A60 79.0 0.3 A40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2016 A60 79.4 0.3 A50 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2016 A50 79.1 0.3 A55 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2016 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2016 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2017 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2017 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2017 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2017 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2017 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9


FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS



CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.



NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAY 19, 2016.


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