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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EST THU MAR 16 2017



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID APRIL 2017



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE CURRENTLY FROM NEAR ZERO.

FOR JANUARY 2017 THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY 2017, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 9.41 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.33 INCHES (170 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 2.48 INCHES (52 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 18.49 INCHES (98 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MARCH 2017. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR HAWAII DURING MARCH 2017.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A50 72.6 0.7 EC 7.4 8.9 11.2
KAHULUI A50 74.1 0.6 EC 0.5 0.9 1.3
HONOLULU A50 76.3 0.5 EC 0.3 0.5 0.7
LIHUE A50 74.0 0.6 EC 1.6 1.9 2.8


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AMJ 2017 - AMJ 2018



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA, AND DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, FOR THE GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED ALONG THE THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTION REMAINED ENHANCED OVER THE NORTHER PORTIONS OF THE MARITIME CONTINENT WHILE BEING SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARITIME CONTINENT. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2017, WITH INCREASING CHANGES FOR EL NINO DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AUTUMN.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM AMJ 2017 TO ASO 2017 DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUSLY ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE CPC CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) TOOL ALSO FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH ODDS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR SON 2017 AND BEYOND.

THE NCEP CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) TOOL FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN RAINFALL FOR HAWAII FROM NDJ 2017 TO FMA 2018. SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT A WARM EVENT (EL NINO) BY THE NORTHERN SUMMER AND FALL, CONTINUING INTO WINTER 2017-18. IF CORRECT, HISTORICAL EL NINO COMPOSITES FAVOR INCREASED ODDS FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR HAWAII IN WINTER, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST FROM THE CA TOOL.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2017 A60 72.9 0.5 B40 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2017 A55 74.0 0.4 B35 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2017 A55 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2017 A45 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2017 A45 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2017 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2017 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2017 EC 74.2 0.4 B40 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2018 EC 72.8 0.4 B40 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2018 EC 71.8 0.4 B40 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2018 EC 71.7 0.4 B40 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2018 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2018 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
\N

KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2017 A60 74.3 0.5 B40 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2017 A55 76.0 0.5 B3 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2017 A55 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2017 A45 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2017 A45 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2017 EC 75.9 0.4 B40 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2018 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2018 EC 72.5 0.4 B40 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2018 EC 72.3 0.4 B40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2018 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2018 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
\N

HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2017 A60 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2017 A60 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2017 A55 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2017 A50 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2017 A45 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2017 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2017 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2017 EC 77.7 0.5 B40 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2018 EC 75.3 0.5 B40 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2018 EC 73.9 0.4 B40 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2018 EC 73.8 0.4 B40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2018 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2018 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
\N

LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2017 A65 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2017 A60 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2017 A60 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2017 A50 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2017 A50 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2017 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2017 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2017 EC 75.7 0.3 B40 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2018 EC 73.6 0.4 B40 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2018 EC 72.2 0.4 B40 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2018 EC 72.1 0.5 B40 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2018 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2018 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
\N
FORECASTER: MATTH ROSENCRANS



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS


CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.


NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU APR 20, 2017.


$$

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