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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
830AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2024

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near-average during the past week near the Hawaiian islands.

For January 2024, total rainfall accumulations were:
-Lihue Airport 2.60 inches (94 percent of normal)
-Honolulu Airport 2.64 inches (143 percent of normal)
-Kahului Airport 5.07 inches (210 percent of normal)
-Hilo Airport 3.21 inches (41 percent of normal)

The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around the Hawaiian Islands through March 2024. However, for the Big Island, there was a significant minority of models that favored SSTs close to the long-term average. Based primarily on these SST forecasts, surface temperatures are also favored to be relatively warm (compared to normal), though for the Big Island the tilt in the odds towards above normal is modest. For the March 2024 precipitation outlook, below normal precipitation chances are elevated for all of the island chain, as indicated by most dynamical model forecasts, and consistent with the El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific.








 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
Hilo A40 72.0 0.6 B60 5.7 10.8 15.2
Kahului A45 72.9 0.5 B60 1.4 1.9 2.9
Honolulu A50 74.7 0.5 B55 0.6 0.8 1.9
Lihue A60 72.7 0.6 B55 1.9 2.6 3.6

SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2024 - MAM 2025

Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. El Niño conditions are observed over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Equatorial SSTs are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies dominate most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean from the surface down to 50-100 meters, while negative subsurface temperature anomalies have strengthened in the central Pacific Ocean down at 100-150 meters. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Enhanced convection and precipitation were observed west of the Date Line, while convection and precipitation were close to average around Indonesia. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical Pacific are generally consistent with El Niño conditions, though there are indications that El Niño is beginning to weaken. El Niño is expected to continue for March-April-May (MAM), with a 79% chance of transition to ENSO-neutral during April-May-June (AMJ) 2024. The neutral phase of ENSO is forecast to persist for several overlapping seasons (AMJ and MJJ). By JJA, odds of a La Niña begin to outweigh the odds of ENSO-neutral, and the likelihood of La Niña continues to increase throughout the summer.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for the Hawaiian Islands during March-April-May (MAM 2024). This is consistent with the predicted continuation of large-scale forcing from El Niño with decadal trends. Above normal temperatures are favored across the island chain from AMJ through JAS 2024, supported by a majority of NMME dynamical model inputs. With ENSO expected to transition from its warm to its neutral phase sometime in AMJ, ENSO forcing is expected to decline across the islands from AMJ through JAS 2024. By JJA, the neutral phase of ENSO is expected to transition further to its cold phase (La Niña), and persist throughout summer and fall. Uncertainty in the intensity of La Niña during late summer and fall is the primary reason why, by ASO 2024, Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above normal temperatures is favored.

Below normal precipitation is forecast throughout Hawaii in MAM 2024, as depicted by most of the climate models that go into the NMME, and consistent with El Niño forcing. With the predicted rapid collapse of El Niño and subsequent transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by AMJ 2024, forecast uncertainty increases significantly. This period also coincides with the so-called "Spring Barrier", a time characterized by reduced SST forecast skill. This is thought to be a time of reset for the global ocean-atmosphere system, when stochastic (random) processes have not yet led to a particular outcome or direction. The Hawaiian precipitation outlooks for AMJ through JAS use dynamical model input from the NMME, IMME (through MJJ), the Constructed Analog (CA) tool that uses SSTs as input, decadal precipitation trends (through the ENSO-OCN tool), and take into account a significant weakening in the large-scale forcing related to ENSO. Below normal precipitation is favored across the archipelago during these seasons. Beyond JAS, Equal Chances (EC) of below, near, and above normal precipitation is favored.


















Hilo
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2024 A40 72.0 0.5 B60 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2024 A40 72.9 0.5 B60 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2024 A40 74.0 0.4 B60 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2024 A40 75.2 0.4 B50 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2024 A40 76.1 0.4 B40 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2024 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2024 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2024 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2024 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2025 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2025 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2025 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2025 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0

















Kahului
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2024 A55 73.0 0.4 B60 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2024 A50 74.3 0.5 B60 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2024 A50 76.0 0.5 B55 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2024 A45 77.7 0.4 B50 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2024 A40 79.0 0.4 B40 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2024 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2024 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2024 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2024 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2025 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2025 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2025 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2025 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6

















Honolulu
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2024 A60 74.8 0.4 B60 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2024 A55 76.3 0.4 B50 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2024 A55 78.2 0.4 B50 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2024 A45 79.9 0.4 B45 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2024 A40 81.3 0.4 B40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2024 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2024 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2024 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2024 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2025 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2025 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2025 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2025 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0

















Lihue
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2024 A60 72.8 0.5 B60 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2024 A60 74.2 0.5 B50 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2024 A55 76.0 0.5 B50 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2024 A45 77.7 0.4 B45 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2024 A40 79.0 0.3 B40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2024 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2024 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2024 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2024 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2025 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2025 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2025 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2025 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0

FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa

Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means.

CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely.

NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Mar 21, 2024.


$$

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