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Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830AM EST Thu Mar 21 2024 MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID APRIL 2024
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near-average over the Hawaiian islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) during the previous week. For January through February 2024, rainfall total accumulations were: -Lihue Airport 3.52 inches (55 percent of normal) -Honolulu Airport 2.94 inches (78 percent of normal) -Kahului Airport 5.77 inches (131 percent of normal) -Hilo Airport 8.98 inches (50 percent of normal) The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and other climate models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict above average SSTs around Kauai, Oahu, and Maui through April 2024 and near average SSTs for the Big Island through April 2024. Based primarily on these SST forecasts, surface temperatures are also favored to be relatively warm compared to normal for Kauai, Oahu and Maui, while Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are forecast for the Big Island in April 2024. For the April 2024 precipitation outlook, below normal precipitation chances are elevated for all of the island chain, as indicated by most dynamical model forecasts, and consistent with the El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific. | | TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
Hilo | EC | 72.6 | 0.7 | | B60 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 11.2 |
Kahului | A40 | 74.1 | 0.6 | | B60 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
Honolulu | A40 | 76.3 | 0.5 | | B55 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Lihue | A40 | 74.0 | 0.6 | | B55 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AMJ 2024 - AMJ 2025 Refer to the prognostic discussion of the long-lead seasonal outlooks for the CONUS and Alaska for a description of the ENSO outlook and other climate conditions relevant to the seasonal outlook. El Niño conditions are observed over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have weakened across the equatorial Pacific but remain close to the surface in the central Pacific. Negative subsurface temperature anomalies expanded across the equatorial Pacific and below-average temperatures have reached the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western tropical Pacific Ocean and Date Line, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection and precipitation were observed near the Date Line, while suppressed convection and precipitation were evident around Indonesia and the Philippines. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical Pacific are generally consistent with El Niño conditions. There is a 83% chance of transition from El Nino to ENSO-neutral during April-June 2024, with increasing odds, about 62% chance, of La Niña developing in Summer 2024. Enhanced probabilities for above normal temperatures are forecast for Kauai, Oahu and Maui and Equal Chances (EC) for above, near or below normal temperatures are forecast for the Big Island in AMJ (April-May-June) 2024, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts from the NMME and the Constructed Analog (CA) tool. The forecast signal weakens at longer leads, therefore EC is indicated for Hawaii beginning in MJJ (May-June-July) 2024 and extending through longer leads. Enhanced probabilities for below normal precipitation are forecast over the Hawaiian Islands (Kauai, Oahu, Maui and the Big Island) from AMJ (April-May-June) 2024 to ASO (August-September-October) 2024, consistent with most dynamical and statistical model forecasts. Due to considerable uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts from dynamical and statistical models, EC is indicated over the Hawaiian Islands beginning in Fall (September-October-November) 2024 through longer leads. | Hilo |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
AMJ 2024 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | B60 | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
MJJ 2024 | EC | 74.0 | 0.4 | B60 | 20.2 | 27.5 | 29.1 |
JJA 2024 | EC | 75.2 | 0.4 | B60 | 19.4 | 27.2 | 31.4 |
JAS 2024 | EC | 76.1 | 0.4 | B50 | 25.2 | 28.6 | 33.4 |
ASO 2024 | EC | 76.4 | 0.4 | B40 | 26.1 | 28.8 | 33.3 |
SON 2024 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | EC | 24.3 | 30.2 | 40.8 |
OND 2024 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | EC | 28.3 | 34.5 | 42.0 |
NDJ 2024 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | EC | 26.4 | 36.6 | 43.0 |
DJF 2025 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | EC | 19.6 | 30.2 | 33.3 |
JFM 2025 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | EC | 22.0 | 32.0 | 44.5 |
FMA 2025 | EC | 71.7 | 0.4 | EC | 24.6 | 34.1 | 45.5 |
MAM 2025 | EC | 72.0 | 0.5 | EC | 22.5 | 28.4 | 34.0 |
AMJ 2025 | EC | 72.9 | 0.5 | EC | 21.4 | 23.7 | 29.0 |
Kahului |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
AMJ 2024 | A40 | 74.3 | 0.5 | B60 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
MJJ 2024 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | B60 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
JJA 2024 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | B55 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
JAS 2024 | EC | 79.0 | 0.4 | B50 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
ASO 2024 | EC | 79.4 | 0.4 | B40 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
SON 2024 | EC | 79.1 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
OND 2024 | EC | 77.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 5.3 | 8.1 |
NDJ 2024 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | EC | 5.2 | 7.6 | 9.5 |
DJF 2025 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 |
JFM 2025 | EC | 72.5 | 0.4 | EC | 4.2 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
FMA 2025 | EC | 72.3 | 0.4 | EC | 3.2 | 4.1 | 6.4 |
MAM 2025 | EC | 73.0 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
AMJ 2025 | EC | 74.3 | 0.5 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
Honolulu |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
AMJ 2024 | A40 | 76.3 | 0.4 | B60 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
MJJ 2024 | EC | 78.2 | 0.4 | B50 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
JJA 2024 | EC | 79.9 | 0.4 | B50 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
JAS 2024 | EC | 81.3 | 0.4 | B45 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
ASO 2024 | EC | 81.7 | 0.4 | B40 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
SON 2024 | EC | 81.4 | 0.4 | EC | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
OND 2024 | EC | 80.0 | 0.4 | EC | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
NDJ 2024 | EC | 77.7 | 0.5 | EC | 3.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
DJF 2025 | EC | 75.3 | 0.5 | EC | 3.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 |
JFM 2025 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | EC | 2.1 | 4.6 | 7.8 |
FMA 2025 | EC | 73.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
MAM 2025 | EC | 74.8 | 0.4 | EC | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
AMJ 2025 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | EC | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
Lihue |
TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION |
| FCST | AVE | LIM | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
AMJ 2024 | A40 | 74.2 | 0.5 | B60 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
MJJ 2024 | EC | 76.0 | 0.5 | B50 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
JJA 2024 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | B50 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
JAS 2024 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | B45 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
ASO 2024 | EC | 79.4 | 0.3 | B40 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.4 |
SON 2024 | EC | 79.1 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 10.0 | 11.2 |
OND 2024 | EC | 77.8 | 0.3 | EC | 9.2 | 11.7 | 15.6 |
NDJ 2024 | EC | 75.7 | 0.3 | EC | 8.6 | 12.1 | 16.9 |
DJF 2025 | EC | 73.6 | 0.4 | EC | 7.5 | 8.4 | 14.0 |
JFM 2025 | EC | 72.2 | 0.4 | EC | 6.5 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
FMA 2025 | EC | 72.1 | 0.5 | EC | 5.8 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
MAM 2025 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | EC | 5.3 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
AMJ 2025 | EC | 74.2 | 0.5 | EC | 4.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
FORECASTER: Luke He Anomalies are based on the 1991-2020 means. CLARIFICATION: EC indicated equal chances that the predicted parameter will fall into any one of the three categories, whose boundaries are specific in the tables above. A forecast specification of EC means there is no particulate tilt of the odds toward above normal or below normal conditions in the outlook. For example A40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the above normal class, B40 means a 40% chance that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the below normal class, and N35 means a 35% probability that the average temperature or total precipitation will be in the near normal class. When EC is specified, all categories are equally likely. NOTE - These outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of the valid periods. Within any valid period, observations and shorter range forecasts should be consulted. Also, this set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuances of the new set net month, on Thu Apr 18, 2024. | $$
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