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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

THE CURRENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC STATE INDICATES ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS,
WITH A TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.
THE LATEST CPC/IRI CONSENSUS ENSO FORECAST HAS THE PROBABILITY OF LA NINA
CONDITIONS AT 50 PERCENT FOR THE AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER (ASO) 2016 SEASON
WITH PROBABILITIES OF LA NINA INCREASING ABOVE 60 PERCENT BY THE 2016-17
WINTER.

THE ASO 2016 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN, ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE TEMPERED IN AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS, AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA, THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE ASO 2016 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF
ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND SMALL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND ALSO IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OF THE
CONUS.

DURING AUTUMN AND INTO WINTER 2016-17, THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOKS INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS OF LA NINA. BY WINTER BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, EXPANDING TO
INCLUDE PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN LATER SEASONS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONTIGUOUS
48 STATES DURING THE AUTUMN AND WINTER, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THIS SAME REGION DURING THESE SEASONS.

EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEASONAL MEAN
TEMPERATURES OR SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR FROM THE DATE
LINE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS PERSISTING IN
OTHER REGIONS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC INCLUDING THE WESTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC. THOUGH THE MOST RECENT THREE-MONTH AVERAGE NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY IS
+0.7 DEGREES C FOR AMJ, WITH THE RECENT EL NINO EVENT NOW TRANSITIONED TO
ENSO-NEUTRAL, THE LATEST WEEKLY NINO 3.4 ANOMALY HAS NOW DECREASED TO -0.6
DEGREE C. A LARGE RESERVOIR OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD SUBSURFACE WATERS EXTENDS TO
MORE THAN 150 METERS BELOW THE SURFACE, WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
GREATER THAN 2 DEGREES C TO A DEPTH GREATER THAN 100 METERS BELOW THE SURFACE
FROM 130 TO 180 DEGREES W. POSITIVE OLR ANOMALIES (SUPPRESSED CONVECTION) WERE
PRESENT OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHILE NEGATIVE OLR ANOMALIES (ENHANCED
CONVECTION) IS PRESENT OVER INDONESIA, DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS. LOW-LEVEL,
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AT THE 850-HPA LEVEL HAVE BEEN NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE
PAST MONTH, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL, 200-HPA WINDS ARE ANOMALOUSLY EASTERLY OVER
A SMALL REGION OF THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. ANOMALOUS INTEGRATED
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FROM THE SURFACE TO 300 METERS DEPTH HAS
BEEN PERSISTENTLY NEGATIVE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS. NEGATIVE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ANOMALIES INCREASE THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF 2016. THE EXTRATROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC, TO THE SOUTH OF ALASKA, AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES PERSIST IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST. ABOVE-AVERAGE SSTS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION PREDICTS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY, COMPARED TO
LAST MONTH, OF AT LEAST WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS BEGINNING IN ASO AND INDICATES
A PEAK AMPLITUDE BELOW -0.5 DEGREES C IN DJF 2016-17. PREDICTIONS FROM THE
NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) MEMBERS INDICATE A RANGE OF NINO 3.4
ANOMALIES, WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN NEAR -0.5 C FROM AUGUST THROUGH DECEMBER. THE
CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST INDICATES THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 50 PERCENT
LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OF LA NINA BY ASO 2016, WITH THE CHANCES OF LA NINA
ABOVE 60 PERCENT BY WINTER.

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

CALIBRATED PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE, OR NMME, PROVIDES THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR
ASO AND SON 2016. THE PREDICTED TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS AND THE MOST
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE CONSIDERED FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS PRIMARILY BEGINNING IN
OND 2016 THROUGH THE WINTER SEASONS INTO EARLY SPRING OF 2017. IN ADDITION TO
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME, INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST
SYSTEM (CFS), A SST-BASED CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE AND ADDITIONAL STATISTICAL
TOOLS, INCLUDING REGRESSION-BASED IMPACTS OF ENSO AND DECADAL TIMESCALE TRENDS,
ARE CONSIDERED IN THE OUTLOOKS.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - ASO 2016 TO ASO 2017

TEMPERATURE

PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST SEVERAL SEASONS, THERE ARE SMALL CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS THIS MONTH RELATIVE TO THOSE RELEASED THE PREVIOUS MONTH,
IN PART RELATED TO A SMALL DECREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LA NINA DEVELOPING.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE
ASO OUTLOOK, CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME
AND THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BASED ON THE PREDICTED NINO 3.4 INDEX AND DECADAL
TIMESCALE CLIMATE TRENDS. LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, IN PART DUE TO HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS,
AND WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS SOMEWHAT RELATED TO DIMINISHED ABOVE-NORMAL
SSTS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
ASO ARE GREATEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WHERE SSTS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

BEGINNING IN OND, EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE PREDICTED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH THIS AREA EXPANDING IN AUTUMN
AND WINTER AS A RESULT OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF LA NINA. ALTHOUGH REGRESSION
FORECASTS BASED ON THE PREDICTED LA NINA FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BEGINNING IN NDJ, A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION CONTINUES THROUGH DJF
2016-17, WITH THE SAME SIGNAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. DURING DJF 2016-17, A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED
FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AREA OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPANDS TO INCLUDE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INCREASES IN
PROBABILITY DURING JFM 2017, CONSISTENT WITH THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST
OF LA NINA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON, PRIMARILY RELATED TO THE MOST
PROBABLE LA NINA IMPACTS. FOR ALASKA, AN EXPECTED REDUCTION IN SEA ICE RELATIVE
TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGE CONDITIONS ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA DURING AUTUMN. AT LONGER LEAD
TIMES BEYOND MAM 2017, THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN IS
BASED ON DECADAL CLIMATE TRENDS AND THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION FORECAST OF AVAILABLE STATISTICAL TOOLS.

PRECIPITATION

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME
THROUGH SON 2016. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A DEVELOPING LA NINA ARE CONSIDERED
BEGINNING IN OND THROUGH WINTER 2016-17. FOR ASO, THE PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE NMME DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND STATISTICAL TOOLS.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR ASO AND SON 2016, BASED ON CALIBRATED GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME. A
POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING LA NINA AND STATISTICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUPPORT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF TEXAS AND ACROSS FLORIDA DURING JAS AND ASO
2016. THE CALIBRATED NMME PROBABILITIES AND STATISTICAL PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE MONSOON PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DURING ASO AND SON 2016. THEREFORE, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE FOR
ASO AND SON 2016.

BEGINNING IN AUTUMN AND THROUGH THE WINTER OF 2016-17, THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS
OF A PREDICTED LA NINA ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR AREAS OF INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
DOMAIN. THE FORECAST PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THESE
SEASONS FROM THE FORECAST MADE LAST MONTH, SINCE LA NINA CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY INFLUENCE ON SEASONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS.

AT LONGER LEADS, FROM AMJ THROUGH ASO 2017, AN INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST IS RELATED TO DECADAL CLIMATE TRENDS, AS INDICATED BY
THE CONSOLIDATION OF STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS, AS IS THE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD
OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR JJA AND JAS 2017.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.

FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON AUG 18 2016


1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011
FORECAST RELEASE.
$$

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