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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU JAN 17 2008

MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2008

SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2007 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

-LIHUE AIRPORT 21.58 INCHES (55 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HONOLULU AIRPORT 11.97INCHES (65 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-KAHULUI AIRPORT 13.13 INCHES (70 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HILO AIRPORT 106.75 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL).

NCEP CFS PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE AND HONOLULU FOR FEBRUARY 2008. NCEP CFS CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR FEBRUARY 2008.

 TEMPERATURE    PRECIPITATION
 FCST AVE LIM   FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO EC 71.6 0.5   A40 4.3 6.8 9.6
KAHULUI EC 72.1 0.6   A40 0.8 1.4 2.0
HONOLULU A40 73.1 0.5   A40 0.8 1.3 2.3
LIHUE A40 71.9 0.6   A40 1.2 1.7 3.2

SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FMA 2008 - FMA 2009

REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. MODERATE-STRENGTH LA NIŅA IS PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SSTS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEST OF THE DATE LINE TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC REMAINED BELOW AVERAGE.  STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CONVECTION COVERED THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC.  RECENT EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE LA NIŅA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2008. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF COLD EPISODES - WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.
NCEP CFS PREDICTS A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI - HONOLULU AND LIHUE FORM FMA TO AMJ 2008. NCEP CFS AND CCA PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FMA TO MAM 2008.


HILO
  TEMPERATURE    PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM   FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2008 EC 72.1 0.4   A40 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2008 EC 72.8 0.5   A40 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2008 EC 73.9 0.4   EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2008 EC 75.0 0.4   EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2008 EC 75.9 0.4   EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2008 EC 76.3 0.4   EC 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2008 EC 76.2 0.4   EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2008 EC 75.5 0.4   EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2008 EC 74.2 0.4   EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2008 EC 72.8 0.4   EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2009 EC 72.0 0.4   EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2009 EC 71.8 0.4   EC 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2009 EC 72.1 0.4   EC 29.5 35.9 43.1
 
KAHULUI
  TEMPERATURE    PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM   FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2008 A40 73.2 0.5   A40 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2008 A40 74.4 0.6   A40 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2008 A40 75.8 0.6   EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2008 EC 77.3 0.6   EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2008 EC 78.6 0.5   EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2008 EC 79.1 0.5   EC 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2008 EC 78.9 0.5   EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2008 EC 77.8 0.5   EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2008 EC 75.9 0.5   EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5   EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2009 EC 72.5 0.5   EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.5   EC 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2009 EC 73.2 0.5   EC 4.3 6.0 8.1
 
HONOLULU
  TEMPERATURE    PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM   FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2008 A40 74.5 0.4   A40 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2008 A40 76.0 0.4   A40 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2008 A40 77.7 0.4   EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2008 EC 79.3 0.4   EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2008 EC 80.7 0.4   EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2008 EC 81.2 0.4   EC 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2008 EC 81.0 0.5   EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2008 EC 79.6 0.5   EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2008 EC 77.3 0.5   EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5   EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2009 EC 73.5 0.4   EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2009 EC 73.5 0.4   EC 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2009 EC 74.5 0.4   EC 3.4 4.6 6.1
 
LIHUE
  TEMPERATURE    PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM   FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2008 A40 73.1 0.4   A40 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2008 A40 74.4 0.4   A40 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2008 A40 75.9 0.4   EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2008 EC 77.5 0.4   EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2008 EC 78.8 0.3   EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2008 EC 79.3 0.3   EC 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2008 EC 79.0 0.3   EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2008 EC 77.7 0.3   EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2008 EC 75.6 0.3   EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2008 EC 73.6 0.3   EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2009 EC 72.4 0.4   EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.4   EC 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2009 EC 73.1 0.4   EC 7.5 9.6 12.0
FORECASTER: LUKE HE

NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES
AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES
FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML

NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES)
AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.

CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL
INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE
SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS
THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A
37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE
CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY
CANNOT BE PREDICTED.

NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THU FEB 21 2008

$$

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