PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU JAN 17 2008
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2008
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2007 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
-LIHUE AIRPORT 21.58 INCHES (55 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HONOLULU AIRPORT 11.97INCHES (65 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-KAHULUI AIRPORT 13.13 INCHES (70 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HILO AIRPORT 106.75 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP CFS PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE AND HONOLULU FOR FEBRUARY 2008. NCEP CFS CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR FEBRUARY 2008.
| | TEMPERATURE | | | | PRECIPITATION |
| | FCST | AVE | LIM | | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| HILO | EC | 71.6 | 0.5 | | | A40 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 9.6 |
| KAHULUI | EC | 72.1 | 0.6 | | | A40 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| HONOLULU | A40 | 73.1 | 0.5 | | | A40 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| LIHUE | A40 | 71.9 | 0.6 | | | A40 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FMA 2008 - FMA 2009
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. MODERATE-STRENGTH LA NIŅA IS PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL
SSTS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEST OF THE DATE LINE TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC REMAINED BELOW AVERAGE. STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC -
CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION COVERED THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. RECENT EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
SST TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE LA NIŅA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2008. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF COLD EPISODES - WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.
NCEP CFS PREDICTS A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI - HONOLULU AND LIHUE FORM FMA TO AMJ 2008. NCEP CFS AND
CCA PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FMA TO MAM 2008.
| HILO |
| | | TEMPERATURE | | | | PRECIPITATION |
| | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA | 2008 | EC | 72.1 | 0.4 | | | A40 | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 |
| MAM | 2008 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | | | A40 | 28.3 | 34.9 | 42.6 |
| AMJ | 2008 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | | | EC | 22.0 | 26.8 | 32.2 |
| MJJ | 2008 | EC | 75.0 | 0.4 | | | EC | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.8 |
| JJA | 2008 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | | EC | 19.5 | 24.2 | 29.6 |
| JAS | 2008 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | | | EC | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 |
| ASO | 2008 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | | | EC | 23.4 | 27.0 | 31.0 |
| SON | 2008 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | | | EC | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 |
| OND | 2008 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | | | EC | 26.1 | 33.1 | 41.3 |
| NDJ | 2008 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | | | EC | 25.5 | 32.9 | 41.7 |
| DJF | 2009 | EC | 72.0 | 0.4 | | | EC | 20.1 | 27.2 | 35.9 |
| JFM | 2009 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | | | EC | 23.9 | 30.9 | 39.4 |
| FMA | 2009 | EC | 72.1 | 0.4 | | | EC | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 |
| |
| KAHULUI |
| | | TEMPERATURE | | | | PRECIPITATION |
| | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA | 2008 | A40 | 73.2 | 0.5 | | | A40 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 |
| MAM | 2008 | A40 | 74.4 | 0.6 | | | A40 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 |
| AMJ | 2008 | A40 | 75.8 | 0.6 | | | EC | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| MJJ | 2008 | EC | 77.3 | 0.6 | | | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| JJA | 2008 | EC | 78.6 | 0.5 | | | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| JAS | 2008 | EC | 79.1 | 0.5 | | | EC | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| ASO | 2008 | EC | 78.9 | 0.5 | | | EC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| SON | 2008 | EC | 77.8 | 0.5 | | | EC | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| OND | 2008 | EC | 75.9 | 0.5 | | | EC | 4.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 |
| NDJ | 2008 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 |
| DJF | 2009 | EC | 72.5 | 0.5 | | | EC | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.7 |
| JFM | 2009 | EC | 72.4 | 0.5 | | | EC | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.6 |
| FMA | 2009 | EC | 73.2 | 0.5 | | | EC | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 |
| |
| HONOLULU |
| | | TEMPERATURE | | | | PRECIPITATION |
| | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA | 2008 | A40 | 74.5 | 0.4 | | | A40 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 |
| MAM | 2008 | A40 | 76.0 | 0.4 | | | A40 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 |
| AMJ | 2008 | A40 | 77.7 | 0.4 | | | EC | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| MJJ | 2008 | EC | 79.3 | 0.4 | | | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| JJA | 2008 | EC | 80.7 | 0.4 | | | EC | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| JAS | 2008 | EC | 81.2 | 0.4 | | | EC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| ASO | 2008 | EC | 81.0 | 0.5 | | | EC | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.8 |
| SON | 2008 | EC | 79.6 | 0.5 | | | EC | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 |
| OND | 2008 | EC | 77.3 | 0.5 | | | EC | 4.5 | 6.2 | 8.4 |
| NDJ | 2008 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 |
| DJF | 2009 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | | EC | 5.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 |
| JFM | 2009 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | | EC | 4.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 |
| FMA | 2009 | EC | 74.5 | 0.4 | | | EC | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 |
| |
| LIHUE |
| | | TEMPERATURE | | | | PRECIPITATION |
| | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV |
| FMA | 2008 | A40 | 73.1 | 0.4 | | | A40 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 |
| MAM | 2008 | A40 | 74.4 | 0.4 | | | A40 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 11.4 |
| AMJ | 2008 | A40 | 75.9 | 0.4 | | | EC | 5.3 | 7.0 | 9.0 |
| MJJ | 2008 | EC | 77.5 | 0.4 | | | EC | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 |
| JJA | 2008 | EC | 78.8 | 0.3 | | | EC | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 |
| JAS | 2008 | EC | 79.3 | 0.3 | | | EC | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 |
| ASO | 2008 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | | | EC | 6.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| SON | 2008 | EC | 77.7 | 0.3 | | | EC | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 |
| OND | 2008 | EC | 75.6 | 0.3 | | | EC | 10.7 | 13.3 | 16.2 |
| NDJ | 2008 | EC | 73.6 | 0.3 | | | EC | 9.8 | 12.5 | 15.8 |
| DJF | 2009 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | | EC | 8.6 | 11.4 | 14.7 |
| JFM | 2009 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | | EC | 8.0 | 10.8 | 14.1 |
| FMA | 2009 | EC | 73.1 | 0.4 | | | EC | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
(CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS.
CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES
AS
ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES
FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE -
EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES)
AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION:
EC INDICATES
EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL
INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE
SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF
EC MEANS
THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A
37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE
CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
WHEN
EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY
CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THU FEB 21 2008
$$
www.nws.noaa.gov 
