Climate Prediction Center - seasonal Outlook
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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.
 
 
HOME > Outlook Maps > Monthly to Seasonal Outlooks > Seasonal Outlooks
 
How to Read the 2-class Three-Month Outlook maps

 

The contours on the map show the total probability (%) of two categories, above, indicated by the letter "A", and below, indicated by the letter "B". At any point on the map, the sum of the probabilities of these two categories is 100%.

For any particular location, and season, these two categories are defined from the 30 observations from 1981-2010. The coldest or driest 1/2 (15 years) define the B category, the warmest or wettest 1/2 (15 years) defines the A category.

When the forecasters decide that one of the extreme categories, say above (A), is the most likely one, they assign probabilities which exceed 50% to that category. This means that the chance of the opposite category is the remaining part of the total (100%). In regions where the forecasters have no indications favoring either A, or B, the chance of these two categories is defined to be 50% each, and the region is labeled "EC", which stands for equal chances.




2-Class Three-Month Outlook Maps
 

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Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: December 12, 2005
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