D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Official
xx
All
44.0
60.9
44.5
27.5
48.5
19.9
34.4
28.8
44.6
31.0
41.5
36.3
38.9
ExpAuto
xx
All
51.3
61.0
46.1
27.2
46.2
23.2
33.6
34.4
49.1
38.8
34.9
42.4
40.9
Auto
xx
All
50.8
52.7
51.5
26.8
32.6
14.1
30.4
9.2
37.3
21.9
35.9
42.4
33.9
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-6.7
-8.5
0.8
1.2
-3.8
2.2
-5.2
-1.3
-5.5
21.0
12.1
-2.3
0.2
Klein
38.1
34.3
34.8
18.1
27.0
17.4
28.5
7.3
32.9
13.3
37.3
14.6
25.3
NNet
26.6
27.6
26.2
13.3
15.7
13.1
-3.5
-2.8
18.8
20.8
29.9
15.6
16.7
GFSM
00
Analogs
37.2
20.7
27.5
6.2
15.5
9.3
13.7
5.8
23.9
16.6
29.7
15.5
18.4
Klein
31.1
31.4
25.5
13.3
14.8
13.6
20.6
6.4
29.4
13.1
31.4
12.3
20.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
37.7
56.0
37.0
16.2
33.9
15.2
19.7
19.7
37.7
38.7
28.4
38.2
31.7
GFSM
06
Analogs
36.0
17.2
30.0
7.0
11.4
10.0
14.4
8.4
24.7
17.4
30.1
14.3
18.4
Klein
30.0
30.2
26.6
13.2
16.0
15.9
21.2
6.3
31.9
11.3
30.9
12.0
20.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
30.7
-8.3
35.1
13.5
24.9
20.8
37.9
39.6
29.1
37.7
28.8
GFSM
12
Analogs
32.7
14.9
23.9
1.9
12.0
13.1
15.2
7.1
25.6
24.8
31.8
13.6
18.0
Klein
27.0
23.6
19.4
9.6
11.6
13.4
20.1
6.0
25.6
14.6
27.9
6.3
17.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
39.4
56.8
36.1
20.4
35.6
16.5
21.3
21.2
39.4
41.5
32.2
40.0
33.4
GFSM
18
Analogs
32.2
12.6
21.9
4.4
13.8
10.6
14.4
8.1
24.0
24.7
31.4
12.5
17.3
Klein
27.2
20.2
22.5
9.4
13.8
14.2
21.1
6.2
27.2
15.0
30.0
8.9
17.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
43.4
54.6
34.9
17.7
34.6
16.0
23.5
21.7
38.6
42.8
33.0
39.3
33.2
GFSM
xx
Analogs
37.9
18.4
26.6
7.0
13.1
10.8
15.6
5.7
22.6
17.2
28.9
16.6
18.4
Klein
30.8
31.0
26.6
12.8
15.5
14.9
21.6
6.6
30.6
13.1
30.9
12.5
20.7
Klein_Prob
31.7
32.4
27.7
14.4
20.5
16.4
22.9
6.7
34.1
14.3
30.8
13.6
22.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
40.6
54.9
40.9
29.4
45.8
29.2
32.3
29.9
44.3
43.1
39.8
38.2
39.3
Uncal_Temp
37.0
46.5
29.0
9.0
11.4
2.9
27.4
13.8
24.0
20.8
33.4
32.5
24.2
ECMM
00
Analogs
36.7
20.9
34.7
13.0
13.2
7.7
19.4
9.5
23.2
18.1
29.8
18.4
20.4
Klein
35.5
32.1
33.0
21.2
20.5
22.2
27.8
8.4
27.7
16.0
35.8
19.1
25.0
Klein_Prob
39.2
33.9
33.9
21.5
24.8
21.6
28.9
9.1
32.8
16.0
35.3
19.7
26.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
46.7
51.0
43.8
32.7
50.2
27.5
35.1
36.1
46.5
38.4
41.7
40.4
41.1
Uncal_Temp
39.2
46.0
30.7
16.4
20.7
18.2
30.4
32.5
39.4
27.3
34.9
32.8
30.9
ECMM
12
Analogs
39.4
19.6
29.6
15.0
14.9
7.3
14.8
7.8
23.7
24.3
29.6
18.4
20.3
Klein
38.0
31.5
29.3
21.5
20.7
21.3
26.5
6.7
28.3
18.8
34.2
18.5
24.6
Klein_Prob
39.9
32.8
29.7
20.8
25.0
21.1
30.3
6.8
32.1
20.8
33.6
19.6
26.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
50.0
52.0
43.9
39.8
53.5
26.5
37.8
38.2
47.9
42.9
45.7
42.4
43.6
Uncal_Temp
43.0
45.9
30.3
19.0
19.7
13.3
34.2
25.9
35.2
25.8
36.6
29.7
30.0
CANM
00
Analogs
33.0
15.6
28.2
7.1
14.9
13.0
10.9
9.6
25.0
18.4
24.5
11.4
17.5
Klein
34.1
24.8
27.2
13.7
19.2
17.8
17.5
7.8
21.1
21.7
30.7
17.4
21.1
Klein_Prob
35.7
27.0
25.9
12.8
22.2
18.8
19.5
7.0
24.9
22.7
32.7
18.0
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
34.3
10.0
22.4
6.1
9.3
13.2
12.9
5.4
22.6
15.6
27.5
9.6
15.8
Klein
30.7
17.3
20.8
11.4
15.3
18.1
18.8
5.7
19.7
18.9
29.5
16.7
18.5
Klein_Prob
33.7
19.2
21.9
14.2
17.6
19.2
22.5
4.2
21.2
19.4
29.8
16.6
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
34.2
20.0
32.0
7.6
11.2
7.3
8.4
6.5
19.5
16.1
28.7
18.4
17.8
Klein
27.8
29.2
22.8
10.2
20.1
12.0
18.1
5.8
26.4
12.0
30.9
9.6
18.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
35.6
21.3
29.9
3.9
10.4
11.7
14.9
5.8
16.5
23.2
26.0
11.8
17.7
Klein
31.3
30.9
26.8
11.5
22.8
13.0
20.2
5.3
27.9
16.4
31.1
9.8
20.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
35.0
20.2
26.6
5.9
9.0
7.6
11.8
5.8
24.2
22.6
28.6
13.0
17.5
Klein
28.4
28.9
25.8
12.7
16.7
10.2
16.3
7.3
30.7
17.4
30.9
8.3
19.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
32.6
18.1
28.9
8.7
13.8
10.8
13.3
4.1
20.8
18.2
33.0
16.7
18.2
Klein
30.8
27.7
27.9
13.8
22.1
12.1
17.3
8.5
26.3
16.5
35.8
11.6
20.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
30.7
22.4
31.3
7.8
11.1
4.4
15.8
5.9
15.4
17.8
29.9
25.2
18.1
Klein
35.4
29.4
27.1
24.1
21.0
14.4
27.2
9.7
24.9
19.5
33.4
20.9
23.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
30.9
21.3
30.9
12.4
15.7
7.3
13.9
8.5
20.4
21.4
30.4
21.4
19.5
Klein
34.3
27.6
24.1
19.8
24.9
14.2
23.9
8.6
31.1
23.7
30.5
17.9
23.5
NNet