D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
Official
xx
All
29.4
54.4
38.1
48.5
62.2
37.8
48.1
49.9
41.6
38.9
42.8
52.9
45.4
ExpAuto
xx
All
31.2
56.7
44.0
48.3
65.4
38.8
52.5
43.5
43.9
35.8
46.3
50.8
46.1
Auto
xx
All
31.1
56.3
42.7
44.9
63.2
41.7
51.7
47.8
47.4
40.4
44.3
53.3
46.8
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
4.2
19.2
6.9
22.3
42.8
17.2
7.8
16.8
19.0
19.6
9.0
10.1
16.4
Klein
10.8
18.8
8.7
23.1
32.1
13.7
21.7
22.3
20.7
25.2
25.5
29.7
21.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
23.2
46.5
41.7
41.6
56.4
24.6
50.8
 
 
 
 
 
39.0
GFSM
06
Analogs
7.6
16.9
9.6
25.5
43.8
14.8
5.3
19.1
20.4
18.7
7.6
12.7
17.3
Klein
9.7
20.5
9.0
23.5
30.2
15.8
22.9
21.3
22.5
25.5
28.9
31.4
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
22.4
45.4
44.2
41.5
56.5
22.9
50.0
 
 
 
 
 
39.0
GFSM
12
Analogs
5.2
16.0
6.8
21.3
44.9
12.3
0.8
21.8
16.7
13.1
10.6
9.0
15.3
Klein
7.1
13.9
8.0
20.0
23.7
10.7
15.5
20.4
15.0
20.3
26.4
28.2
17.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
22.9
45.5
47.0
42.9
56.7
26.2
57.8
 
 
 
 
 
40.4
GFSM
18
Analogs
10.1
16.3
6.4
19.9
44.3
11.1
3.2
22.4
18.1
14.6
6.3
9.6
15.6
Klein
10.1
16.4
5.4
17.8
23.8
10.1
16.6
17.4
18.8
18.7
24.8
29.9
17.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
25.0
43.4
44.5
42.3
56.7
21.8
55.2
 
 
 
 
 
39.3
GFSM
xx
Analogs
3.8
19.1
10.9
18.4
46.1
15.8
5.9
18.4
20.9
18.7
6.6
7.2
16.3
Klein
8.7
18.9
7.9
21.3
30.8
15.0
21.5
21.8
20.9
25.8
26.4
29.1
21.2
Klein_Prob
10.3
25.2
11.5
25.5
36.0
14.2
24.1
22.9
25.6
27.1
29.3
34.0
24.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
33.0
46.1
49.8
44.1
63.9
32.7
45.5
49.9
39.7
32.1
44.3
54.8
44.6
Uncal_Temp
11.5
22.5
25.6
26.8
48.0
22.8
23.8
27.7
21.6
28.9
27.2
36.3
27.0
ECMM
00
Analogs
5.3
19.4
6.2
25.6
41.1
22.9
13.3
17.0
16.6
18.2
6.7
14.2
17.3
Klein
9.2
25.9
10.1
27.6
33.1
15.6
21.4
15.3
23.1
28.1
29.6
22.8
22.1
Klein_Prob
12.1
29.9
14.8
31.2
36.0
16.0
26.3
14.8
26.6
28.8
33.0
27.5
25.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
32.9
56.3
43.9
40.0
58.0
38.8
48.0
47.6
48.1
39.5
50.9
53.8
46.4
Uncal_Temp
24.1
50.3
40.9
38.5
49.4
25.9
35.4
30.4
29.2
31.1
32.8
41.0
35.5
ECMM
12
Analogs
4.5
23.4
7.6
24.8
43.3
22.7
15.8
16.4
14.9
21.9
9.4
17.7
18.5
Klein
10.1
23.5
10.2
24.6
29.1
14.8
20.1
13.5
21.8
27.1
30.4
25.1
21.1
Klein_Prob
12.1
27.3
14.6
28.7
32.0
14.3
23.9
14.8
26.8
27.2
33.5
29.9
24.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
36.1
56.6
49.2
42.8
63.7
42.9
49.9
51.8
52.8
40.2
52.4
56.4
49.4
Uncal_Temp
20.8
48.6
39.9
36.2
46.5
27.0
32.8
30.1
28.5
32.9
27.5
38.2
33.8
CANM
00
Analogs
5.3
10.9
7.3
25.4
39.9
13.8
5.8
19.7
15.4
18.2
10.9
13.8
15.8
Klein
3.6
13.3
14.6
20.2
32.0
14.4
22.3
29.6
22.1
23.5
29.2
18.2
20.6
Klein_Prob
4.8
20.3
17.9
24.1
36.1
14.6
28.6
28.7
24.6
26.2
33.1
23.3
23.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
4.8
12.9
7.6
21.6
38.4
10.7
8.1
23.9
15.2
15.4
13.7
12.4
15.5
Klein
3.3
10.1
12.9
18.7
24.5
11.8
18.1
26.9
17.1
18.8
26.2
14.8
17.4
Klein_Prob
3.5
12.9
16.7
21.5
29.2
12.1
23.0
26.4
18.5
19.3
29.1
20.6
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
-0.8
18.6
8.7
23.2
42.6
18.4
4.5
14.6
13.3
19.8
7.0
10.3
15.1
Klein
6.0
22.8
12.5
21.4
33.9
8.7
16.1
15.5
16.4
25.3
24.4
30.0
19.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
0.3
19.1
8.8
22.5
39.0
22.5
6.4
16.6
16.6
18.6
6.5
7.2
15.4
Klein
9.2
23.5
15.2
19.6
31.5
14.2
20.4
18.2
17.1
26.5
27.1
28.6
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
-3.4
17.7
2.2
21.9
40.5
14.6
4.8
19.2
13.5
17.2
10.2
11.3
14.4
Klein
9.0
18.9
6.2
21.3
26.3
6.4
18.1
19.5
12.6
17.0
26.8
29.0
18.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
1.7
16.7
6.0
26.2
36.9
11.5
2.4
19.4
17.6
14.4
12.1
7.6
14.8
Klein
10.1
22.3
12.3
19.9
23.7
7.0
21.0
21.2
16.1
18.8
24.8
28.2
19.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
8.8
19.4
6.5
26.9
38.4
18.1
15.7
23.0
10.6
20.0
8.1
14.3
17.4
Klein
14.2
26.6
9.0
28.7
29.0
11.4
18.4
18.6
21.6
26.3
25.5
25.9
21.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
5.7
16.7
6.1
29.1
41.3
20.1
13.8
27.6
11.6
20.7
6.0
13.9
17.6
Klein
11.2
26.1
9.1
26.0
25.2
11.6
17.5
13.5
18.5
24.9
24.2
24.6
19.5
NNet