D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
Aug 16
Sep 16
Oct 16
Nov 16
Dec 16
Jan 17
Official
xx
All
48.1
49.9
41.6
38.9
42.8
52.9
42.8
42.2
56.6
62.8
41.6
61.9
48.5
ExpAuto
xx
All
52.5
43.5
43.9
35.8
46.3
50.8
43.9
48.9
57.5
59.3
42.2
55.7
48.3
Auto
xx
All
51.7
47.8
47.4
40.4
44.3
53.3
46.5
49.7
59.1
61.7
38.0
58.6
49.8
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
7.8
16.8
19.0
19.6
9.0
10.1
4.0
10.4
20.2
15.7
26.0
28.5
15.9
Klein
21.7
22.3
20.7
25.2
25.5
29.7
12.8
23.8
21.1
18.3
23.5
23.6
22.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
50.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
5.3
19.1
20.4
18.7
7.6
12.7
0.5
8.0
22.9
14.1
25.1
27.6
15.5
Klein
22.9
21.3
22.5
25.5
28.9
31.4
13.9
21.6
21.6
21.8
25.9
22.6
23.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
50.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
0.8
21.8
16.7
13.1
10.6
9.0
-0.6
7.8
21.5
12.9
25.0
18.7
13.3
Klein
15.5
20.4
15.0
20.3
26.4
28.2
9.4
17.6
13.7
12.8
20.2
15.9
18.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
57.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
3.2
22.4
18.1
14.6
6.3
9.6
5.0
6.6
18.4
12.9
19.7
14.9
12.8
Klein
16.6
17.4
18.8
18.7
24.8
29.9
10.8
17.2
14.9
13.4
21.1
16.1
18.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
55.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
5.9
18.4
20.9
18.7
6.6
7.2
5.3
10.1
22.8
15.2
26.8
26.2
15.6
Klein
21.5
21.8
20.9
25.8
26.4
29.1
13.2
19.9
19.6
18.6
25.7
24.3
22.7
Klein_Prob
24.1
22.9
25.6
27.1
29.3
34.0
20.0
28.0
29.1
24.1
27.6
24.5
26.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
45.5
49.9
39.7
32.1
44.3
54.8
42.0
43.3
56.7
59.7
36.8
50.6
46.3
Uncal_Temp
23.8
27.7
21.6
28.9
27.2
36.3
23.0
33.8
39.2
39.3
26.0
44.9
31.1
ECMM
00
Analogs
13.3
17.0
16.6
18.2
6.7
14.2
7.1
14.2
32.0
26.9
25.2
32.7
18.8
Klein
21.4
15.3
23.1
28.1
29.6
22.8
8.6
19.3
28.8
27.6
26.6
23.6
23.3
Klein_Prob
26.3
14.8
26.6
28.8
33.0
27.5
12.5
26.0
35.6
30.2
28.7
24.1
26.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
48.0
47.6
48.1
39.5
50.9
53.8
44.6
46.9
59.9
59.9
29.0
56.6
48.7
Uncal_Temp
35.4
30.4
29.2
31.1
32.8
41.0
32.8
41.2
49.8
49.1
24.9
47.1
37.0
ECMM
12
Analogs
15.8
16.4
14.9
21.9
9.4
17.7
8.2
12.6
31.9
29.6
24.4
26.9
19.1
Klein
20.1
13.5
21.8
27.1
30.4
25.1
7.1
19.9
26.9
24.1
23.9
19.7
21.9
Klein_Prob
23.9
14.8
26.8
27.2
33.5
29.9
10.5
26.4
33.5
27.3
25.4
20.1
25.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
49.9
51.8
52.8
40.2
52.4
56.4
47.0
49.5
59.9
62.1
36.7
62.5
51.6
Uncal_Temp
32.8
30.1
28.5
32.9
27.5
38.2
27.6
39.0
45.7
44.3
27.9
48.9
35.1
CANM
00
Analogs
5.8
19.7
15.4
18.2
10.9
13.8
-0.0
17.3
17.6
19.3
21.6
27.9
15.8
Klein
22.3
29.6
22.1
23.5
29.2
18.2
1.3
19.0
18.6
25.1
24.1
25.3
21.8
Klein_Prob
28.6
28.7
24.6
26.2
33.1
23.3
4.4
24.7
25.3
27.6
26.4
26.5
25.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
8.1
23.9
15.2
15.4
13.7
12.4
0.8
10.6
21.4
7.7
16.9
26.1
14.6
Klein
18.1
26.9
17.1
18.8
26.2
14.8
-0.2
11.1
15.9
18.2
19.0
18.6
17.3
Klein_Prob
23.0
26.4
18.5
19.3
29.1
20.6
1.5
16.7
22.3
20.6
19.3
18.8
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
4.5
14.6
13.3
19.8
7.0
10.3
7.7
12.2
22.7
27.6
21.6
33.1
16.3
Klein
16.1
15.5
16.4
25.3
24.4
30.0
14.0
25.9
21.0
23.4
22.9
24.2
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
6.4
16.6
16.6
18.6
6.5
7.2
2.2
9.5
16.9
24.1
24.0
31.1
15.1
Klein
20.4
18.2
17.1
26.5
27.1
28.6
13.8
21.5
18.8
24.2
24.1
22.8
22.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
4.8
19.2
13.5
17.2
10.2
11.3
4.5
8.9
11.0
23.6
20.8
25.5
14.4
Klein
18.1
19.5
12.6
17.0
26.8
29.0
11.9
22.8
16.9
22.1
22.6
20.6
20.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
2.4
19.4
17.6
14.4
12.1
7.6
7.2
10.6
16.7
22.9
18.9
27.6
15.0
Klein
21.0
21.2
16.1
18.8
24.8
28.2
15.1
24.7
20.1
17.6
21.6
19.0
21.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
15.7
23.0
10.6
20.0
8.1
14.3
9.4
10.0
17.3
17.9
13.9
29.6
15.9
Klein
18.4
18.6
21.6
26.3
25.5
25.9
12.1
20.9
22.0
24.5
21.5
21.1
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
13.8
27.6
11.6
20.7
6.0
13.9
8.6
8.3
18.3
17.4
14.0
24.0
15.4
Klein
17.5
13.5
18.5
24.9
24.2
24.6
7.1
20.2
20.2
21.0
17.6
17.3
19.2
NNet