D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Official
xx
All
32.7
10.4
48.5
44.0
60.9
44.5
27.5
48.5
19.9
34.4
28.8
44.6
37.2
ExpAuto
xx
All
39.8
19.6
49.1
51.3
61.0
46.1
27.2
46.2
23.2
33.6
34.4
49.1
40.1
Auto
xx
All
32.7
8.5
42.7
50.8
52.7
51.5
26.8
32.6
14.1
30.4
9.2
37.3
32.5
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-6.8
5.2
6.1
-6.7
-8.5
0.8
1.2
-3.8
2.2
-5.2
-1.3
-5.5
-2.0
Klein
17.4
6.2
27.4
38.1
34.3
34.8
18.1
27.0
17.4
28.5
7.3
32.9
24.1
NNet
26.4
5.5
19.5
26.6
27.6
26.2
13.3
15.7
13.1
-3.5
-2.8
18.8
15.8
GFSM
00
Analogs
14.9
10.5
24.0
37.2
20.7
27.5
6.2
15.5
9.3
13.7
5.8
23.9
17.2
Klein
12.9
14.0
23.3
31.1
31.4
25.5
13.3
14.8
13.6
20.6
6.4
29.4
19.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
29.3
9.4
39.9
37.7
56.0
37.0
16.2
33.9
15.2
19.7
19.7
37.7
29.4
GFSM
06
Analogs
24.1
14.1
24.1
36.0
17.2
30.0
7.0
11.4
10.0
14.4
8.4
24.7
18.2
Klein
14.4
7.6
22.9
30.0
30.2
26.6
13.2
16.0
15.9
21.2
6.3
31.9
19.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
25.5
6.1
45.8
 
 
30.7
-8.3
35.1
13.5
24.9
20.8
37.9
24.3
GFSM
12
Analogs
13.7
14.6
19.9
32.7
14.9
23.9
1.9
12.0
13.1
15.2
7.1
25.6
16.1
Klein
6.6
6.9
16.1
27.0
23.6
19.4
9.6
11.6
13.4
20.1
6.0
25.6
15.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
30.9
11.0
41.6
39.4
56.8
36.1
20.4
35.6
16.5
21.3
21.2
39.4
30.7
GFSM
18
Analogs
14.7
15.9
23.2
32.2
12.6
21.9
4.4
13.8
10.6
14.4
8.1
24.0
16.2
Klein
9.1
7.4
19.0
27.2
20.2
22.5
9.4
13.8
14.2
21.1
6.2
27.2
16.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
27.0
13.2
40.8
43.4
54.6
34.9
17.7
34.6
16.0
23.5
21.7
38.6
30.4
GFSM
xx
Analogs
17.9
13.2
22.6
37.9
18.4
26.6
7.0
13.1
10.8
15.6
5.7
22.6
17.5
Klein
13.3
11.2
23.5
30.8
31.0
26.6
12.8
15.5
14.9
21.6
6.6
30.6
19.9
Klein_Prob
14.6
10.2
24.9
31.7
32.4
27.7
14.4
20.5
16.4
22.9
6.7
34.1
21.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
35.9
23.6
45.0
40.6
54.9
40.9
29.4
45.8
29.2
32.3
29.9
44.3
37.8
Uncal_Temp
16.4
18.3
33.3
37.0
46.5
29.0
9.0
11.4
2.9
27.4
13.8
24.0
22.5
ECMM
00
Analogs
28.0
12.9
26.6
36.7
20.9
34.7
13.0
13.2
7.7
19.4
9.5
23.2
20.4
Klein
21.7
3.4
23.0
35.5
32.1
33.0
21.2
20.5
22.2
27.8
8.4
27.7
23.0
Klein_Prob
24.1
3.5
23.9
39.2
33.9
33.9
21.5
24.8
21.6
28.9
9.1
32.8
24.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
42.6
24.5
46.4
46.7
51.0
43.8
32.7
50.2
27.5
35.1
36.1
46.5
40.5
Uncal_Temp
35.4
19.6
35.0
39.2
46.0
30.7
16.4
20.7
18.2
30.4
32.5
39.4
30.5
ECMM
12
Analogs
24.2
13.8
26.2
39.4
19.6
29.6
15.0
14.9
7.3
14.8
7.8
23.7
19.6
Klein
18.3
-1.3
23.3
38.0
31.5
29.3
21.5
20.7
21.3
26.5
6.7
28.3
21.9
Klein_Prob
21.2
0.6
23.4
39.9
32.8
29.7
20.8
25.0
21.1
30.3
6.8
32.1
23.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
42.7
27.3
47.1
50.0
52.0
43.9
39.8
53.5
26.5
37.8
38.2
47.9
42.4
Uncal_Temp
32.4
21.1
31.9
43.0
45.9
30.3
19.0
19.7
13.3
34.2
25.9
35.2
29.4
CANM
00
Analogs
25.2
12.7
19.8
33.0
15.6
28.2
7.1
14.9
13.0
10.9
9.6
25.0
17.7
Klein
15.9
9.4
18.1
34.1
24.8
27.2
13.7
19.2
17.8
17.5
7.8
21.1
18.8
Klein_Prob
17.8
6.7
17.7
35.7
27.0
25.9
12.8
22.2
18.8
19.5
7.0
24.9
19.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
21.0
13.8
15.5
34.3
10.0
22.4
6.1
9.3
13.2
12.9
5.4
22.6
15.6
Klein
12.8
7.1
9.6
30.7
17.3
20.8
11.4
15.3
18.1
18.8
5.7
19.7
15.5
Klein_Prob
15.0
6.3
10.6
33.7
19.2
21.9
14.2
17.6
19.2
22.5
4.2
21.2
17.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
20.4
9.2
22.2
34.2
20.0
32.0
7.6
11.2
7.3
8.4
6.5
19.5
16.7
Klein
14.3
1.4
23.4
27.8
29.2
22.8
10.2
20.1
12.0
18.1
5.8
26.4
17.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
22.1
9.5
22.9
35.6
21.3
29.9
3.9
10.4
11.7
14.9
5.8
16.5
17.3
Klein
14.6
3.0
24.9
31.3
30.9
26.8
11.5
22.8
13.0
20.2
5.3
27.9
19.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
16.6
2.7
19.3
35.0
20.2
26.6
5.9
9.0
7.6
11.8
5.8
24.2
15.5
Klein
10.3
-1.5
18.2
28.4
28.9
25.8
12.7
16.7
10.2
16.3
7.3
30.7
16.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
12.9
15.1
13.8
32.6
18.1
28.9
8.7
13.8
10.8
13.3
4.1
20.8
16.1
Klein
12.2
5.0
18.0
30.8
27.7
27.9
13.8
22.1
12.1
17.3
8.5
26.3
18.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
29.4
10.6
23.5
30.7
22.4
31.3
7.8
11.1
4.4
15.8
5.9
15.4
17.1
Klein
23.1
2.5
19.1
35.4
29.4
27.1
24.1
21.0
14.4
27.2
9.7
24.9
21.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
27.7
11.5
23.6
30.9
21.3
30.9
12.4
15.7
7.3
13.9
8.5
20.4
18.5
Klein
18.0
-1.8
18.0
34.3
27.6
24.1
19.8
24.9
14.2
23.9
8.6
31.1
20.2
NNet