D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
Long Term Time Series 
 
   
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Tool
Aug 07
Sep 07
Oct 07
Nov 07
Dec 07
Jan 08
Feb 08
Mar 08
Apr 08
May 08
Jun 08
Jul 08
Official
All
39.2
35.5
37.8
31.0
33.0
39.3
24.6
23.0
25.5
25.9
26.5
7.5
29.1
CDC
All
31.7
33.9
31.4
17.5
23.9
35.1
16.9
27.8
19.4
19.5
22.8
9.5
24.4
Auto_Prob
All
35.5
40.5
34.3
14.1
18.0
38.2
12.5
13.0
22.8
22.3
25.0
6.8
23.9
Auto_CDF
All
27.6
33.4
36.6
18.0
19.9
47.1
21.6
21.0
22.1
23.4
22.6
14.8
25.6
Klein
18.5
24.7
23.8
5.4
17.5
36.4
22.9
19.3
17.8
20.3
8.9
11.1
18.9
NNet
14.3
22.2
22.1
24.9
19.7
37.3
13.8
14.6
7.8
9.3
24.2
4.8
17.9
00/06ZENS
Cal_Temp
17.0
30.4
8.1
13.7
15.8
41.6
32.7
21.1
21.5
19.0
6.1
5.3
19.8
Uncal_Temp
19.1
17.7
0.5
20.8
28.3
40.2
28.9
21.1
17.3
13.7
-0.3
1.2
18.3
ManBlend
Klein
20.2
23.0
26.4
16.5
28.7
34.3
28.5
21.0
17.3
24.8
14.6
12.2
22.1
NNet
20.1
24.3
21.4
25.0
28.9
31.8
20.4
8.4
6.5
11.9
24.9
0.1
18.6
GFS_Sup
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
15.8
23.1
19.7
19.7
21.7
28.0
34.9
 
 
4.6
 
 
22.2
Klein_Prob
20.3
24.9
19.2
20.9
24.8
35.5
30.5
 
 
 
 
 
24.6
NNet
19.7
23.5
17.0
24.4
22.9
29.0
21.9
 
 
22.1
 
 
22.6
NNet_Prob
19.4
24.0
18.9
31.1
23.0
35.9
25.6
 
 
 
 
 
25.5
ECMM
Analogs
17.0
23.2
33.4
11.6
16.1
36.5
14.2
13.8
16.4
20.9
20.5
 
20.2
Klein
24.8
26.0
30.8
3.7
16.3
40.6
26.7
16.3
16.8
20.8
19.9
 
22.1
Klein_Prob
28.6
30.4
31.9
10.1
7.0
39.7
23.1
15.6
18.1
20.6
23.6
 
22.5
NNet
10.3
20.3
29.0
13.2
20.0
44.5
20.2
10.7
9.4
8.1
19.5
 
18.9
NNet_Prob
7.4
21.0
31.0
11.7
18.6
45.2
19.9
10.8
10.3
9.7
21.0
 
19.1
CANM
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
20.1
 
 
 
20.1
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein_Prob
22.1
18.2
15.4
21.6
23.4
33.8
23.6
11.6
14.2
 
 
 
21.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
10.9
17.4
26.4
24.6
17.6
33.5
23.8
14.0
15.7
 
 
 
20.7
00ZGFSENS
Analogs
22.5
26.8
26.9
18.2
21.9
36.0
17.6
 
 
 
 
 
24.9
Klein
15.0
22.6
18.2
20.0
21.4
34.2
34.8
36.0
 
15.2
 
 
22.9
NNet
19.9
22.7
17.0
27.2
23.3
32.6
21.9
16.7
 
22.1
 
 
23.6
06ZGFSENS
Analogs
23.3
25.5
27.6
16.8
20.4
37.4
19.1
 
 
 
 
 
25.1
Klein
18.1
21.1
19.9
20.3
21.1
35.2
34.1
37.5
 
9.1
 
 
23.5
NNet
18.3
26.5
22.4
27.7
22.6
31.3
23.0
3.1
 
22.1
 
 
24.5
12ZGFSENS
Analogs
19.1
25.3
26.1
19.6
19.7
37.4
13.0
 
 
 
 
 
24.0
Klein
16.3
21.0
16.6
15.0
19.9
33.7
31.4
 
 
 
 
 
21.1
NNet
18.0
26.2
15.8
25.8
21.3
31.4
21.1
 
 
 
 
 
23.0
18ZGFSENS
Analogs
20.1
28.0
24.9
16.8
23.3
34.9
14.4
 
 
 
 
 
24.2
Klein
17.1
21.7
17.8
14.6
20.1
32.4
31.3
 
 
 
 
 
21.2
NNet
19.0
24.6
15.6
25.4
19.8
31.0
22.9
 
 
 
 
 
22.5
00ZGFS
Analogs
10.6
26.9
28.7
14.0
18.1
47.6
10.4
-11.5
 
 
 
 
21.9
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
06ZGFS
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12ZGFS
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18ZGFS
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
Analogs
18.8
29.2
22.5
9.0
20.4
47.7
17.4
10.2
15.7
17.2
22.5
 
21.0
Klein
18.9
29.4
27.9
11.3
27.4
38.2
21.2
10.7
11.9
19.4
18.3
 
21.4
NNet
2.8
20.3
27.2
23.7
23.9
39.7
20.4
10.6
3.6
11.7
20.9
 
18.8
OldGFSENS
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
DAV
Analogs
22.2
25.9
30.4
5.4
15.6
35.4
9.7
4.1
1.5
15.8
19.4
 
18.2
Klein
12.3
15.2
25.9
15.7
22.7
37.8
22.6
20.0
7.0
14.4
24.3
 
20.3
NNet
30.6
25.6
25.9
16.7
19.0
36.8
17.0
11.2
15.1
10.9
33.1
 
22.4