D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Official
xx
All
41.5
36.0
32.7
10.4
48.5
44.0
60.9
44.5
27.5
48.5
19.9
34.4
37.5
ExpAuto
xx
All
37.5
39.8
19.6
49.1
51.3
61.0
46.1
27.2
46.2
23.2
33.6
39.8
Auto
xx
All
42.7
21.1
32.7
8.5
42.7
50.8
52.7
51.5
26.8
32.6
14.1
30.4
33.8
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-12.7
-3.5
-6.8
5.2
6.1
-6.7
-8.5
0.8
1.2
-3.8
2.2
-5.2
-2.9
Klein
19.3
18.1
17.4
6.2
27.4
38.1
34.3
34.8
18.1
27.0
17.4
28.5
23.9
NNet
12.1
11.1
26.4
5.5
19.5
26.6
27.6
26.2
13.3
15.7
13.1
-3.5
16.2
GFSM
00
Analogs
11.5
1.3
14.9
10.5
24.0
37.2
20.7
27.5
6.2
15.5
9.3
13.7
15.8
Klein
8.2
7.1
12.9
14.0
23.3
31.1
31.4
25.5
13.3
14.8
13.6
20.6
17.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
41.3
38.5
29.3
9.4
39.9
37.7
56.0
37.0
16.2
33.9
15.2
19.7
31.1
GFSM
06
Analogs
10.0
3.7
24.1
14.1
24.1
36.0
17.2
30.0
7.0
11.4
10.0
14.4
16.7
Klein
11.5
8.6
14.4
7.6
22.9
30.0
30.2
26.6
13.2
16.0
15.9
21.2
18.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
35.0
27.7
25.5
6.1
45.8
 
 
30.7
-8.3
35.1
13.5
24.9
24.0
GFSM
12
Analogs
9.2
-1.3
13.7
14.6
19.9
32.7
14.9
23.9
1.9
12.0
13.1
15.2
14.3
Klein
10.3
3.6
6.6
6.9
16.1
27.0
23.6
19.4
9.6
11.6
13.4
20.1
13.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
43.9
40.0
30.9
11.0
41.6
39.4
56.8
36.1
20.4
35.6
16.5
21.3
32.6
GFSM
18
Analogs
7.7
-1.8
14.7
15.9
23.2
32.2
12.6
21.9
4.4
13.8
10.6
14.4
14.2
Klein
9.8
5.0
9.1
7.4
19.0
27.2
20.2
22.5
9.4
13.8
14.2
21.1
14.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
41.7
37.5
27.0
13.2
40.8
43.4
54.6
34.9
17.7
34.6
16.0
23.5
31.9
GFSM
xx
Analogs
12.3
1.4
17.9
13.2
22.6
37.9
18.4
26.6
7.0
13.1
10.8
15.6
16.4
Klein
9.6
8.6
13.3
11.2
23.5
30.8
31.0
26.6
12.8
15.5
14.9
21.6
18.2
Klein_Prob
15.9
10.3
14.6
10.2
24.9
31.7
32.4
27.7
14.4
20.5
16.4
22.9
20.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
43.2
41.1
35.9
23.6
45.0
40.6
54.9
40.9
29.4
45.8
29.2
32.3
38.5
Uncal_Temp
19.5
20.0
16.4
18.3
33.3
37.0
46.5
29.0
9.0
11.4
2.9
27.4
22.7
ECMM
00
Analogs
12.4
5.7
28.0
12.9
26.6
36.7
20.9
34.7
13.0
13.2
7.7
19.4
19.4
Klein
16.0
9.3
21.7
3.4
23.0
35.5
32.1
33.0
21.2
20.5
22.2
27.8
22.2
Klein_Prob
22.2
11.8
24.1
3.5
23.9
39.2
33.9
33.9
21.5
24.8
21.6
28.9
24.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
36.1
42.6
24.5
46.4
46.7
51.0
43.8
32.7
50.2
27.5
35.1
40.2
Uncal_Temp
40.2
35.4
19.6
35.0
39.2
46.0
30.7
16.4
20.7
18.2
30.4
29.8
ECMM
12
Analogs
15.0
5.5
24.2
13.8
26.2
39.4
19.6
29.6
15.0
14.9
7.3
14.8
18.8
Klein
17.3
6.9
18.3
-1.3
23.3
38.0
31.5
29.3
21.5
20.7
21.3
26.5
21.1
Klein_Prob
22.8
8.3
21.2
0.6
23.4
39.9
32.8
29.7
20.8
25.0
21.1
30.3
23.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
33.0
42.7
27.3
47.1
50.0
52.0
43.9
39.8
53.5
26.5
37.8
42.0
Uncal_Temp
34.6
32.4
21.1
31.9
43.0
45.9
30.3
19.0
19.7
13.3
34.2
29.5
CANM
00
Analogs
11.3
4.4
25.2
12.7
19.8
33.0
15.6
28.2
7.1
14.9
13.0
10.9
16.2
Klein
10.7
5.4
15.9
9.4
18.1
34.1
24.8
27.2
13.7
19.2
17.8
17.5
17.8
Klein_Prob
 
11.6
17.8
6.7
17.7
35.7
27.0
25.9
12.8
22.2
18.8
19.5
19.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
9.3
3.3
21.0
13.8
15.5
34.3
10.0
22.4
6.1
9.3
13.2
12.9
14.3
Klein
9.2
1.8
12.8
7.1
9.6
30.7
17.3
20.8
11.4
15.3
18.1
18.8
14.4
Klein_Prob
 
6.0
15.0
6.3
10.6
33.7
19.2
21.9
14.2
17.6
19.2
22.5
16.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
9.8
2.9
20.4
9.2
22.2
34.2
20.0
32.0
7.6
11.2
7.3
8.4
15.7
Klein
13.5
8.8
14.3
1.4
23.4
27.8
29.2
22.8
10.2
20.1
12.0
18.1
16.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
12.1
5.5
22.1
9.5
22.9
35.6
21.3
29.9
3.9
10.4
11.7
14.9
16.9
Klein
15.0
9.1
14.6
3.0
24.9
31.3
30.9
26.8
11.5
22.8
13.0
20.2
18.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
12.1
7.5
16.6
2.7
19.3
35.0
20.2
26.6
5.9
9.0
7.6
11.8
14.7
Klein
14.0
10.7
10.3
-1.5
18.2
28.4
28.9
25.8
12.7
16.7
10.2
16.3
15.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
11.3
10.9
12.9
15.1
13.8
32.6
18.1
28.9
8.7
13.8
10.8
13.3
15.9
Klein
18.6
11.3
12.2
5.0
18.0
30.8
27.7
27.9
13.8
22.1
12.1
17.3
17.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
12.4
4.2
29.4
10.6
23.5
30.7
22.4
31.3
7.8
11.1
4.4
15.8
16.8
Klein
20.2
10.7
23.1
2.5
19.1
35.4
29.4
27.1
24.1
21.0
14.4
27.2
21.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
16.0
2.5
27.7
11.5
23.6
30.9
21.3
30.9
12.4
15.7
7.3
13.9
17.8
Klein
20.4
6.7
18.0
-1.8
18.0
34.3
27.6
24.1
19.8
24.9
14.2
23.9
19.3
NNet