D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Sep 16
Oct 16
Nov 16
Dec 16
Jan 17
Feb 17
Mar 17
Apr 17
May 17
Jun 17
Jul 17
Aug 17
Official
xx
All
42.2
56.6
62.8
41.6
61.9
55.1
34.6
40.4
28.0
30.9
36.4
29.1
43.4
ExpAuto
xx
All
48.9
57.5
59.3
42.2
55.7
56.0
37.8
42.2
32.2
36.1
44.5
51.9
47.0
Auto
xx
All
49.7
59.1
61.7
38.0
58.6
58.7
37.8
42.5
32.1
36.1
37.2
31.4
45.4
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
10.4
20.2
15.7
26.0
28.5
5.7
23.0
19.8
11.8
15.1
9.5
12.7
16.8
Klein
23.8
21.1
18.3
23.5
23.6
6.8
25.3
26.3
22.4
17.6
20.4
14.8
20.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
8.0
22.9
14.1
25.1
27.6
9.5
21.0
22.6
13.9
18.5
9.6
13.7
17.5
Klein
21.6
21.6
21.8
25.9
22.6
10.1
23.0
28.0
24.1
19.3
18.6
16.4
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
7.8
21.5
12.9
25.0
18.7
5.5
24.9
19.1
15.7
18.7
9.6
16.3
16.6
Klein
17.6
13.7
12.8
20.2
15.9
6.5
20.2
24.2
23.8
14.5
19.2
18.0
17.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
6.6
18.4
12.9
19.7
14.9
1.8
21.1
17.5
15.5
19.6
10.0
13.8
14.5
Klein
17.2
14.9
13.4
21.1
16.1
6.0
17.7
23.9
24.3
16.7
19.7
15.8
17.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
10.1
22.8
15.2
26.8
26.2
6.3
26.8
22.2
11.2
17.6
8.9
13.8
17.5
Klein
19.9
19.6
18.6
25.7
24.3
6.6
22.3
26.5
22.4
17.5
19.2
15.7
20.1
Klein_Prob
28.0
29.1
24.1
27.6
24.5
13.6
27.9
29.7
24.6
21.7
23.0
18.8
24.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
43.3
56.7
59.7
36.8
50.6
48.3
39.4
42.6
33.9
32.7
40.3
35.0
43.4
Uncal_Temp
33.8
39.2
39.3
26.0
44.9
23.7
17.8
17.7
22.9
22.2
27.7
19.2
28.0
ECMM
00
Analogs
14.2
32.0
26.9
25.2
32.7
4.7
25.8
20.0
15.8
16.1
13.8
12.8
20.2
Klein
19.3
28.8
27.6
26.6
23.6
15.9
25.6
32.3
23.2
20.6
16.2
18.2
23.5
Klein_Prob
26.0
35.6
30.2
28.7
24.1
20.5
28.4
34.8
27.8
23.3
18.4
18.6
26.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
46.9
59.9
59.9
29.0
56.6
54.0
42.0
44.1
35.0
35.1
39.9
33.8
44.7
Uncal_Temp
41.2
49.8
49.1
24.9
47.1
34.0
26.0
21.1
22.0
19.1
21.9
14.7
31.1
ECMM
12
Analogs
12.6
31.9
29.6
24.4
26.9
4.4
31.1
19.8
17.6
18.5
10.7
13.8
20.1
Klein
19.9
26.9
24.1
23.9
19.7
17.5
24.3
29.7
28.3
22.6
16.3
20.1
23.1
Klein_Prob
26.4
33.5
27.3
25.4
20.1
22.3
27.6
33.1
30.3
25.2
19.4
20.4
26.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
49.5
59.9
62.1
36.7
62.5
55.5
44.6
47.2
41.3
37.5
42.0
37.1
48.0
Uncal_Temp
39.0
45.7
44.3
27.9
48.9
33.0
28.1
18.9
21.2
14.9
14.2
14.9
29.3
CANM
00
Analogs
17.3
17.6
19.3
21.6
27.9
13.4
22.1
19.8
9.3
21.3
8.4
12.2
17.6
Klein
19.0
18.6
25.1
24.1
25.3
17.2
24.5
25.6
18.2
18.7
14.0
16.5
20.9
Klein_Prob
24.7
25.3
27.6
26.4
26.5
22.6
26.6
28.6
21.7
21.7
16.5
18.1
24.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
10.6
21.4
7.7
16.9
26.1
16.2
19.6
13.8
12.3
19.6
10.2
12.2
15.7
Klein
11.1
15.9
18.2
19.0
18.6
18.0
21.6
26.9
20.1
17.0
15.2
16.4
18.3
Klein_Prob
16.7
22.3
20.6
19.3
18.8
22.4
24.1
29.8
24.8
18.6
17.1
20.1
21.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
12.2
22.7
27.6
21.6
33.1
5.4
20.4
19.4
11.9
16.8
8.2
13.4
17.9
Klein
25.9
21.0
23.4
22.9
24.2
15.3
20.4
25.8
21.0
14.8
15.7
15.7
20.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
9.5
16.9
24.1
24.0
31.1
6.5
22.6
15.9
11.8
20.2
8.8
13.1
17.2
Klein
21.5
18.8
24.2
24.1
22.8
18.0
23.4
24.7
23.5
17.9
15.5
15.4
21.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
8.9
11.0
23.6
20.8
25.5
3.7
22.8
17.1
15.9
16.2
6.8
10.2
15.3
Klein
22.8
16.9
22.1
22.6
20.6
18.1
19.9
24.4
23.1
16.6
16.7
17.5
20.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
10.6
16.7
22.9
18.9
27.6
8.8
14.0
20.9
19.0
15.9
7.6
11.7
16.4
Klein
24.7
20.1
17.6
21.6
19.0
18.0
17.3
26.8
26.4
14.1
16.2
17.6
20.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
10.0
17.3
17.9
13.9
29.6
7.9
28.4
18.5
16.9
17.0
12.6
11.6
17.0
Klein
20.9
22.0
24.5
21.5
21.1
19.4
24.4
29.0
23.5
22.7
13.6
14.8
21.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
8.3
18.3
17.4
14.0
24.0
-0.9
25.3
8.5
20.2
15.7
11.3
11.6
14.7
Klein
20.2
20.2
21.0
17.6
17.3
17.9
25.7
23.9
29.7
20.3
16.0
18.2
21.0
NNet