D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
Long Term Time Series 
 
   
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Tool
Sep 07
Oct 07
Nov 07
Dec 07
Jan 08
Feb 08
Mar 08
Apr 08
May 08
Jun 08
Jul 08
Aug 08
Official
All
35.5
37.8
31.0
33.0
39.3
24.6
23.0
25.5
25.9
26.5
7.5
13.2
27.1
CDC
All
33.9
31.4
17.5
23.9
35.1
16.9
27.8
19.4
19.5
22.8
9.5
16.5
23.2
Auto_Prob
All
40.5
34.3
14.1
18.0
38.2
12.5
13.0
22.8
22.3
25.0
6.8
21.4
22.7
Auto_CDF
All
33.4
36.6
18.0
19.9
47.1
21.6
21.0
22.1
23.4
22.6
14.8
23.5
25.3
Klein
24.7
23.8
5.4
17.5
36.4
22.9
19.3
17.8
20.3
8.9
11.1
17.8
18.9
NNet
22.2
22.1
24.9
19.7
37.3
13.8
14.6
7.8
9.3
24.2
4.8
17.6
18.2
00/06ZENS
Cal_Temp
30.4
8.1
13.7
15.8
41.6
32.7
21.1
21.5
19.0
6.1
5.3
30.3
21.0
Uncal_Temp
17.7
0.5
20.8
28.3
40.2
28.9
21.1
17.3
13.7
-0.3
1.2
20.2
18.3
ManBlend
Klein
23.0
26.4
16.5
28.7
34.3
28.5
21.0
17.3
24.8
14.6
12.2
19.6
22.1
NNet
24.3
21.4
25.0
28.9
31.8
20.4
8.4
6.5
11.9
24.9
0.1
21.3
18.6
GFS_Sup
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
23.1
19.7
19.7
21.7
28.0
34.9
 
 
4.6
 
 
 
23.4
Klein_Prob
24.9
19.2
20.9
24.8
35.5
30.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
25.4
NNet
23.5
17.0
24.4
22.9
29.0
21.9
 
 
22.1
 
 
 
23.1
NNet_Prob
24.0
18.9
31.1
23.0
35.9
25.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
26.6
ECMM
Analogs
23.2
33.4
11.6
16.1
36.5
14.2
13.8
16.4
20.9
20.5
 
 
20.6
Klein
26.0
30.8
3.7
16.3
40.6
26.7
16.3
16.8
20.8
19.9
 
 
21.8
Klein_Prob
30.4
31.9
10.1
7.0
39.7
23.1
15.6
18.1
20.6
23.6
 
 
21.9
NNet
20.3
29.0
13.2
20.0
44.5
20.2
10.7
9.4
8.1
19.5
 
 
19.9
NNet_Prob
21.0
31.0
11.7
18.6
45.2
19.9
10.8
10.3
9.7
21.0
 
 
20.4
CANM
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
20.1
 
 
 
 
20.1
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein_Prob
18.2
15.4
21.6
23.4
33.8
23.6
11.6
14.2
 
 
 
 
20.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
17.4
26.4
24.6
17.6
33.5
23.8
14.0
15.7
 
 
 
 
21.9
00ZGFSENS
Analogs
26.8
26.9
18.2
21.9
36.0
17.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
25.3
Klein
22.6
18.2
20.0
21.4
34.2
34.8
36.0
 
15.2
 
 
 
24.2
NNet
22.7
17.0
27.2
23.3
32.6
21.9
16.7
 
22.1
 
 
 
24.2
06ZGFSENS
Analogs
25.5
27.6
16.8
20.4
37.4
19.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
25.4
Klein
21.1
19.9
20.3
21.1
35.2
34.1
37.5
 
9.1
 
 
 
24.4
NNet
26.5
22.4
27.7
22.6
31.3
23.0
3.1
 
22.1
 
 
 
25.6
12ZGFSENS
Analogs
25.3
26.1
19.6
19.7
37.4
13.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
24.8
Klein
21.0
16.6
15.0
19.9
33.7
31.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
22.0
NNet
26.2
15.8
25.8
21.3
31.4
21.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
23.8
18ZGFSENS
Analogs
28.0
24.9
16.8
23.3
34.9
14.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
25.0
Klein
21.7
17.8
14.6
20.1
32.4
31.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
22.0
NNet
24.6
15.6
25.4
19.8
31.0
22.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
23.2
00ZGFS
Analogs
26.9
28.7
14.0
18.1
47.6
10.4
-11.5
 
 
 
 
 
23.6
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
06ZGFS
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12ZGFS
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18ZGFS
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
Analogs
29.2
22.5
9.0
20.4
47.7
17.4
10.2
15.7
17.2
22.5
 
 
21.2
Klein
29.4
27.9
11.3
27.4
38.2
21.2
10.7
11.9
19.4
18.3
 
 
21.7
NNet
20.3
27.2
23.7
23.9
39.7
20.4
10.6
3.6
11.7
20.9
 
 
20.5
OldGFSENS
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
DAV
Analogs
25.9
30.4
5.4
15.6
35.4
9.7
4.1
1.5
15.8
19.4
 
 
17.7
Klein
15.2
25.9
15.7
22.7
37.8
22.6
20.0
7.0
14.4
24.3
 
 
21.3
NNet
25.6
25.9
16.7
19.0
36.8
17.0
11.2
15.1
10.9
33.1
 
 
21.4