D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Jun 15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Official
xx
All
33.6
37.8
29.4
54.4
38.1
48.5
62.2
37.8
48.1
49.9
41.6
38.9
43.4
ExpAuto
xx
All
38.2
37.9
31.2
56.7
44.0
48.3
65.4
38.8
52.5
43.5
43.9
35.8
44.5
Auto
xx
All
 
40.6
31.1
56.3
42.7
44.9
63.2
41.7
51.7
47.8
47.4
40.4
46.4
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
6.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6.5
Klein
 
17.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
17.8
NNet
 
3.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.0
GFSM
00
Analogs
4.8
9.1
4.2
19.2
6.9
22.3
42.8
17.2
7.8
16.8
19.0
19.6
16.0
Klein
15.1
14.3
10.8
18.8
8.7
23.1
32.1
13.7
21.7
22.3
20.7
25.2
19.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
32.6
27.1
23.2
46.5
41.7
41.6
56.4
24.6
50.8
 
 
 
37.8
GFSM
06
Analogs
6.5
6.0
7.6
16.9
9.6
25.5
43.8
14.8
5.3
19.1
20.4
18.7
16.6
Klein
17.4
12.4
9.7
20.5
9.0
23.5
30.2
15.8
22.9
21.3
22.5
25.5
19.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
33.2
25.6
22.4
45.4
44.2
41.5
56.5
22.9
50.0
 
 
 
37.7
GFSM
12
Analogs
6.8
7.1
5.2
16.0
6.8
21.3
44.9
12.3
0.8
21.8
16.7
13.1
14.9
Klein
17.8
7.3
7.1
13.9
8.0
20.0
23.7
10.7
15.5
20.4
15.0
20.3
15.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
32.9
21.1
22.9
45.5
47.0
42.9
56.7
26.2
57.8
 
 
 
38.9
GFSM
18
Analogs
6.6
6.0
10.1
16.3
6.4
19.9
44.3
11.1
3.2
22.4
18.1
14.6
15.3
Klein
18.1
10.9
10.1
16.4
5.4
17.8
23.8
10.1
16.6
17.4
18.8
18.7
15.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
32.9
38.7
25.0
43.4
44.5
42.3
56.7
21.8
55.2
 
 
 
38.5
GFSM
xx
Analogs
5.0
6.0
3.8
19.1
10.9
18.4
46.1
15.8
5.9
18.4
20.9
18.7
16.0
Klein
15.9
12.4
8.7
18.9
7.9
21.3
30.8
15.0
21.5
21.8
20.9
25.8
18.9
Klein_Prob
18.2
16.8
10.3
25.2
11.5
25.5
36.0
14.2
24.1
22.9
25.6
27.1
22.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
33.8
34.0
33.0
46.1
49.8
44.1
63.9
32.7
45.5
49.9
39.7
32.1
42.0
Uncal_Temp
20.4
23.6
11.5
22.5
25.6
26.8
48.0
22.8
23.8
27.7
21.6
28.9
25.3
ECMM
00
Analogs
5.3
7.5
5.3
19.4
6.2
25.6
41.1
22.9
13.3
17.0
16.6
18.2
16.6
Klein
16.9
14.8
9.2
25.9
10.1
27.6
33.1
15.6
21.4
15.3
23.1
28.1
20.5
Klein_Prob
17.7
16.9
12.1
29.9
14.8
31.2
36.0
16.0
26.3
14.8
26.6
28.8
22.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
40.6
35.9
32.9
56.3
43.9
40.0
58.0
38.8
48.0
47.6
48.1
39.5
44.1
Uncal_Temp
31.2
30.8
24.1
50.3
40.9
38.5
49.4
25.9
35.4
30.4
29.2
31.1
34.5
ECMM
12
Analogs
6.9
8.5
4.5
23.4
7.6
24.8
43.3
22.7
15.8
16.4
14.9
21.9
17.5
Klein
18.2
13.6
10.1
23.5
10.2
24.6
29.1
14.8
20.1
13.5
21.8
27.1
19.2
Klein_Prob
19.4
16.7
12.1
27.3
14.6
28.7
32.0
14.3
23.9
14.8
26.8
27.2
21.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
42.0
38.0
36.1
56.6
49.2
42.8
63.7
42.9
49.9
51.8
52.8
40.2
47.1
Uncal_Temp
29.7
29.0
20.8
48.6
39.9
36.2
46.5
27.0
32.8
30.1
28.5
32.9
33.3
CANM
00
Analogs
6.0
14.9
5.3
10.9
7.3
25.4
39.9
13.8
5.8
19.7
15.4
18.2
15.5
Klein
17.5
18.3
3.6
13.3
14.6
20.2
32.0
14.4
22.3
29.6
22.1
23.5
19.7
Klein_Prob
18.7
21.4
4.8
20.3
17.9
24.1
36.1
14.6
28.6
28.7
24.6
26.2
22.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
6.9
9.5
4.8
12.9
7.6
21.6
38.4
10.7
8.1
23.9
15.2
15.4
14.8
Klein
17.8
12.3
3.3
10.1
12.9
18.7
24.5
11.8
18.1
26.9
17.1
18.8
16.6
Klein_Prob
18.7
14.0
3.5
12.9
16.7
21.5
29.2
12.1
23.0
26.4
18.5
19.3
18.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
4.0
5.3
-0.8
18.6
8.7
23.2
42.6
18.4
4.5
14.6
13.3
19.8
14.5
Klein
10.4
18.8
6.0
22.8
12.5
21.4
33.9
8.7
16.1
15.5
16.4
25.3
17.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
7.2
7.0
0.3
19.1
8.8
22.5
39.0
22.5
6.4
16.6
16.6
18.6
15.5
Klein
15.8
15.8
9.2
23.5
15.2
19.6
31.5
14.2
20.4
18.2
17.1
26.5
19.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
6.5
5.7
-3.4
17.7
2.2
21.9
40.5
14.6
4.8
19.2
13.5
17.2
13.6
Klein
16.2
16.1
9.0
18.9
6.2
21.3
26.3
6.4
18.1
19.5
12.6
17.0
16.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
4.0
2.7
1.7
16.7
6.0
26.2
36.9
11.5
2.4
19.4
17.6
14.4
13.7
Klein
18.0
14.5
10.1
22.3
12.3
19.9
23.7
7.0
21.0
21.2
16.1
18.8
17.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
5.4
6.4
8.8
19.4
6.5
26.9
38.4
18.1
15.7
23.0
10.6
20.0
16.6
Klein
14.1
12.8
14.2
26.6
9.0
28.7
29.0
11.4
18.4
18.6
21.6
26.3
19.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
6.0
3.8
5.7
16.7
6.1
29.1
41.3
20.1
13.8
27.6
11.6
20.7
16.7
Klein
15.2
9.9
11.2
26.1
9.1
26.0
25.2
11.6
17.5
13.5
18.5
24.9
17.6
NNet