D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Dec 16
Jan 17
Feb 17
Mar 17
Apr 17
May 17
Jun 17
Jul 17
Aug 17
Sep 17
Oct 17
Nov 17
Official
xx
All
41.6
61.9
55.1
34.6
40.4
28.0
30.9
36.4
29.1
59.8
50.3
37.5
42.4
ExpAuto
xx
All
42.2
55.7
56.0
37.8
42.2
32.2
36.1
44.5
51.9
38.0
52.4
37.6
43.4
Auto
xx
All
38.0
58.6
58.7
37.8
42.5
32.1
36.1
37.2
31.4
61.7
52.4
37.4
44.0
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
26.0
28.5
5.7
23.0
19.8
11.8
15.1
9.5
12.7
8.8
25.5
11.7
16.8
Klein
23.5
23.6
6.8
25.3
26.3
22.4
17.6
20.4
14.8
28.5
31.1
22.1
22.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
25.1
27.6
9.5
21.0
22.6
13.9
18.5
9.6
13.7
10.7
33.3
9.4
18.3
Klein
25.9
22.6
10.1
23.0
28.0
24.1
19.3
18.6
16.4
28.2
33.3
24.5
23.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
25.0
18.7
5.5
24.9
19.1
15.7
18.7
9.6
16.3
10.4
23.6
13.5
17.1
Klein
20.2
15.9
6.5
20.2
24.2
23.8
14.5
19.2
18.0
28.3
29.3
19.6
20.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
19.7
14.9
1.8
21.1
17.5
15.5
19.6
10.0
13.8
9.6
24.6
12.8
15.6
Klein
21.1
16.1
6.0
17.7
23.9
24.3
16.7
19.7
15.8
27.6
28.3
20.0
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
26.8
26.2
6.3
26.8
22.2
11.2
17.6
8.9
13.8
8.0
29.5
10.5
17.6
Klein
25.7
24.3
6.6
22.3
26.5
22.4
17.5
19.2
15.7
27.2
32.2
22.6
22.0
Klein_Prob
27.6
24.5
13.6
27.9
29.7
24.6
21.7
23.0
18.8
33.9
35.7
22.7
25.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
36.8
50.6
48.3
39.4
42.6
33.9
32.7
40.3
35.0
48.9
50.5
33.4
41.3
Uncal_Temp
26.0
44.9
23.7
17.8
17.7
22.9
22.2
27.7
19.2
40.5
38.0
25.8
27.4
ECMM
00
Analogs
25.2
32.7
4.7
25.8
20.0
15.8
16.1
13.8
12.8
15.4
29.2
18.4
19.5
Klein
26.6
23.6
15.9
25.6
32.3
23.2
20.6
16.2
18.2
30.3
33.4
25.2
24.5
Klein_Prob
28.7
24.1
20.5
28.4
34.8
27.8
23.3
18.4
18.6
35.3
34.8
26.2
27.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
29.0
56.6
54.0
42.0
44.1
35.0
35.1
39.9
33.8
57.2
45.2
34.5
42.4
Uncal_Temp
24.9
47.1
34.0
26.0
21.1
22.0
19.1
21.9
14.7
49.0
41.3
30.7
29.6
ECMM
12
Analogs
24.4
26.9
4.4
31.1
19.8
17.6
18.5
10.7
13.8
12.2
29.8
19.7
19.3
Klein
23.9
19.7
17.5
24.3
29.7
28.3
22.6
16.3
20.1
30.4
30.1
23.6
24.1
Klein_Prob
25.4
20.1
22.3
27.6
33.1
30.3
25.2
19.4
20.4
36.2
32.5
25.7
26.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
36.7
62.5
55.5
44.6
47.2
41.3
37.5
42.0
37.1
60.2
50.8
39.7
46.3
Uncal_Temp
27.9
48.9
33.0
28.1
18.9
21.2
14.9
14.2
14.9
46.9
44.1
31.4
28.8
CANM
00
Analogs
21.6
27.9
13.4
22.1
19.8
9.3
21.3
8.4
12.2
20.7
29.9
16.1
19.0
Klein
24.1
25.3
17.2
24.5
25.6
18.2
18.7
14.0
16.5
30.6
24.9
25.6
22.4
Klein_Prob
26.4
26.5
22.6
26.6
28.6
21.7
21.7
16.5
18.1
36.2
28.2
26.0
25.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
16.9
26.1
16.2
19.6
13.8
12.3
19.6
10.2
12.2
14.0
23.6
15.6
17.1
Klein
19.0
18.6
18.0
21.6
26.9
20.1
17.0
15.2
16.4
24.8
22.5
24.2
20.6
Klein_Prob
19.3
18.8
22.4
24.1
29.8
24.8
18.6
17.1
20.1
31.2
26.7
25.2
23.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
21.6
33.1
5.4
20.4
19.4
11.9
16.8
8.2
13.4
8.2
25.4
11.0
16.5
Klein
22.9
24.2
15.3
20.4
25.8
21.0
14.8
15.7
15.7
29.0
29.8
22.5
21.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
24.0
31.1
6.5
22.6
15.9
11.8
20.2
8.8
13.1
15.3
27.4
12.6
17.8
Klein
24.1
22.8
18.0
23.4
24.7
23.5
17.9
15.5
15.4
27.4
32.3
25.2
22.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
20.8
25.5
3.7
22.8
17.1
15.9
16.2
6.8
10.2
15.6
22.6
6.0
15.6
Klein
22.6
20.6
18.1
19.9
24.4
23.1
16.6
16.7
17.5
32.5
28.9
18.4
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
18.9
27.6
8.8
14.0
20.9
19.0
15.9
7.6
11.7
7.9
25.4
11.5
16.4
Klein
21.6
19.0
18.0
17.3
26.8
26.4
14.1
16.2
17.6
31.4
34.1
21.6
22.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
13.9
29.6
7.9
28.4
18.5
16.9
17.0
12.6
11.6
10.9
21.4
19.3
17.6
Klein
21.5
21.1
19.4
24.4
29.0
23.5
22.7
13.6
14.8
28.1
25.2
21.4
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
14.0
24.0
-0.9
25.3
8.5
20.2
15.7
11.3
11.6
9.8
24.3
17.9
15.5
Klein
17.6
17.3
17.9
25.7
23.9
29.7
20.3
16.0
18.2
25.8
25.5
17.6
21.4
NNet