D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Official
xx
All
10.4
48.5
44.0
60.9
44.5
27.5
48.5
19.9
34.4
28.8
44.6
31.0
37.1
ExpAuto
xx
All
19.6
49.1
51.3
61.0
46.1
27.2
46.2
23.2
33.6
34.4
49.1
38.8
40.0
Auto
xx
All
8.5
42.7
50.8
52.7
51.5
26.8
32.6
14.1
30.4
9.2
37.3
21.9
31.4
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
5.2
6.1
-6.7
-8.5
0.8
1.2
-3.8
2.2
-5.2
-1.3
-5.5
21.0
0.5
Klein
6.2
27.4
38.1
34.3
34.8
18.1
27.0
17.4
28.5
7.3
32.9
13.3
23.7
NNet
5.5
19.5
26.6
27.6
26.2
13.3
15.7
13.1
-3.5
-2.8
18.8
20.8
15.0
GFSM
00
Analogs
10.5
24.0
37.2
20.7
27.5
6.2
15.5
9.3
13.7
5.8
23.9
16.6
17.3
Klein
14.0
23.3
31.1
31.4
25.5
13.3
14.8
13.6
20.6
6.4
29.4
13.1
19.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
9.4
39.9
37.7
56.0
37.0
16.2
33.9
15.2
19.7
19.7
37.7
38.7
30.1
GFSM
06
Analogs
14.1
24.1
36.0
17.2
30.0
7.0
11.4
10.0
14.4
8.4
24.7
17.4
17.7
Klein
7.6
22.9
30.0
30.2
26.6
13.2
16.0
15.9
21.2
6.3
31.9
11.3
19.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
6.1
45.8
 
 
30.7
-8.3
35.1
13.5
24.9
20.8
37.9
39.6
26.9
GFSM
12
Analogs
14.6
19.9
32.7
14.9
23.9
1.9
12.0
13.1
15.2
7.1
25.6
24.8
17.1
Klein
6.9
16.1
27.0
23.6
19.4
9.6
11.6
13.4
20.1
6.0
25.6
14.6
16.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
11.0
41.6
39.4
56.8
36.1
20.4
35.6
16.5
21.3
21.2
39.4
41.5
31.6
GFSM
18
Analogs
15.9
23.2
32.2
12.6
21.9
4.4
13.8
10.6
14.4
8.1
24.0
24.7
17.0
Klein
7.4
19.0
27.2
20.2
22.5
9.4
13.8
14.2
21.1
6.2
27.2
15.0
16.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
13.2
40.8
43.4
54.6
34.9
17.7
34.6
16.0
23.5
21.7
38.6
42.8
31.7
GFSM
xx
Analogs
13.2
22.6
37.9
18.4
26.6
7.0
13.1
10.8
15.6
5.7
22.6
17.2
17.4
Klein
11.2
23.5
30.8
31.0
26.6
12.8
15.5
14.9
21.6
6.6
30.6
13.1
19.8
Klein_Prob
10.2
24.9
31.7
32.4
27.7
14.4
20.5
16.4
22.9
6.7
34.1
14.3
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
23.6
45.0
40.6
54.9
40.9
29.4
45.8
29.2
32.3
29.9
44.3
43.1
38.4
Uncal_Temp
18.3
33.3
37.0
46.5
29.0
9.0
11.4
2.9
27.4
13.8
24.0
20.8
22.9
ECMM
00
Analogs
12.9
26.6
36.7
20.9
34.7
13.0
13.2
7.7
19.4
9.5
23.2
18.1
19.5
Klein
3.4
23.0
35.5
32.1
33.0
21.2
20.5
22.2
27.8
8.4
27.7
16.0
22.5
Klein_Prob
3.5
23.9
39.2
33.9
33.9
21.5
24.8
21.6
28.9
9.1
32.8
16.0
24.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
24.5
46.4
46.7
51.0
43.8
32.7
50.2
27.5
35.1
36.1
46.5
38.4
40.1
Uncal_Temp
19.6
35.0
39.2
46.0
30.7
16.4
20.7
18.2
30.4
32.5
39.4
27.3
29.7
ECMM
12
Analogs
13.8
26.2
39.4
19.6
29.6
15.0
14.9
7.3
14.8
7.8
23.7
24.3
19.6
Klein
-1.3
23.3
38.0
31.5
29.3
21.5
20.7
21.3
26.5
6.7
28.3
18.8
22.0
Klein_Prob
0.6
23.4
39.9
32.8
29.7
20.8
25.0
21.1
30.3
6.8
32.1
20.8
23.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
27.3
47.1
50.0
52.0
43.9
39.8
53.5
26.5
37.8
38.2
47.9
42.9
42.4
Uncal_Temp
21.1
31.9
43.0
45.9
30.3
19.0
19.7
13.3
34.2
25.9
35.2
25.8
28.9
CANM
00
Analogs
12.7
19.8
33.0
15.6
28.2
7.1
14.9
13.0
10.9
9.6
25.0
18.4
17.1
Klein
9.4
18.1
34.1
24.8
27.2
13.7
19.2
17.8
17.5
7.8
21.1
21.7
19.3
Klein_Prob
6.7
17.7
35.7
27.0
25.9
12.8
22.2
18.8
19.5
7.0
24.9
22.7
20.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
13.8
15.5
34.3
10.0
22.4
6.1
9.3
13.2
12.9
5.4
22.6
15.6
15.0
Klein
7.1
9.6
30.7
17.3
20.8
11.4
15.3
18.1
18.8
5.7
19.7
18.9
16.1
Klein_Prob
6.3
10.6
33.7
19.2
21.9
14.2
17.6
19.2
22.5
4.2
21.2
19.4
17.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
9.2
22.2
34.2
20.0
32.0
7.6
11.2
7.3
8.4
6.5
19.5
16.1
16.2
Klein
1.4
23.4
27.8
29.2
22.8
10.2
20.1
12.0
18.1
5.8
26.4
12.0
17.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
9.5
22.9
35.6
21.3
29.9
3.9
10.4
11.7
14.9
5.8
16.5
23.2
17.2
Klein
3.0
24.9
31.3
30.9
26.8
11.5
22.8
13.0
20.2
5.3
27.9
16.4
19.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
2.7
19.3
35.0
20.2
26.6
5.9
9.0
7.6
11.8
5.8
24.2
22.6
15.8
Klein
-1.5
18.2
28.4
28.9
25.8
12.7
16.7
10.2
16.3
7.3
30.7
17.4
17.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
15.1
13.8
32.6
18.1
28.9
8.7
13.8
10.8
13.3
4.1
20.8
18.2
16.4
Klein
5.0
18.0
30.8
27.7
27.9
13.8
22.1
12.1
17.3
8.5
26.3
16.5
18.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
10.6
23.5
30.7
22.4
31.3
7.8
11.1
4.4
15.8
5.9
15.4
17.8
16.3
Klein
2.5
19.1
35.4
29.4
27.1
24.1
21.0
14.4
27.2
9.7
24.9
19.5
21.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
11.5
23.6
30.9
21.3
30.9
12.4
15.7
7.3
13.9
8.5
20.4
21.4
18.0
Klein
-1.8
18.0
34.3
27.6
24.1
19.8
24.9
14.2
23.9
8.6
31.1
23.7
20.7
NNet