D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Official
xx
All
44.5
27.5
48.5
19.9
34.4
28.8
44.6
31.0
41.5
36.3
49.5
63.3
39.5
ExpAuto
xx
All
46.1
27.2
46.2
23.2
33.6
34.4
49.1
38.8
34.9
42.4
50.2
61.2
40.9
Auto
xx
All
51.5
26.8
32.6
14.1
30.4
9.2
37.3
21.9
35.9
42.4
50.5
61.6
34.8
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
0.8
1.2
-3.8
2.2
-5.2
-1.3
-5.5
21.0
12.1
-2.3
0.6
-14.8
0.1
Klein
34.8
18.1
27.0
17.4
28.5
7.3
32.9
13.3
37.3
14.6
20.8
47.6
25.1
NNet
26.2
13.3
15.7
13.1
-3.5
-2.8
18.8
20.8
29.9
15.6
27.6
40.4
17.9
GFSM
00
Analogs
27.5
6.2
15.5
9.3
13.7
5.8
23.9
16.6
29.7
15.5
28.6
33.1
18.9
Klein
25.5
13.3
14.8
13.6
20.6
6.4
29.4
13.1
31.4
12.3
20.4
44.9
20.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
37.0
16.2
33.9
15.2
19.7
19.7
37.7
38.7
28.4
38.2
44.1
57.4
32.4
GFSM
06
Analogs
30.0
7.0
11.4
10.0
14.4
8.4
24.7
17.4
30.1
14.3
29.5
34.9
19.6
Klein
26.6
13.2
16.0
15.9
21.2
6.3
31.9
11.3
30.9
12.0
21.2
45.8
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
30.7
-8.3
35.1
13.5
24.9
20.8
37.9
39.6
29.1
37.7
46.0
57.0
33.7
GFSM
12
Analogs
23.9
1.9
12.0
13.1
15.2
7.1
25.6
24.8
31.8
13.6
22.4
29.4
18.5
Klein
19.4
9.6
11.6
13.4
20.1
6.0
25.6
14.6
27.9
6.3
12.6
40.7
17.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
36.1
20.4
35.6
16.5
21.3
21.2
39.4
41.5
32.2
40.0
47.6
59.7
34.5
GFSM
18
Analogs
21.9
4.4
13.8
10.6
14.4
8.1
24.0
24.7
31.4
12.5
23.6
32.1
18.4
Klein
22.5
9.4
13.8
14.2
21.1
6.2
27.2
15.0
30.0
8.9
16.7
46.1
19.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
34.9
17.7
34.6
16.0
23.5
21.7
38.6
42.8
33.0
39.3
49.0
59.3
34.3
GFSM
xx
Analogs
26.6
7.0
13.1
10.8
15.6
5.7
22.6
17.2
28.9
16.6
28.0
33.6
19.1
Klein
26.6
12.8
15.5
14.9
21.6
6.6
30.6
13.1
30.9
12.5
21.1
46.0
21.2
Klein_Prob
27.7
14.4
20.5
16.4
22.9
6.7
34.1
14.3
30.8
13.6
21.6
48.4
22.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
40.9
29.4
45.8
29.2
32.3
29.9
44.3
43.1
39.8
38.2
47.7
56.9
40.1
Uncal_Temp
29.0
9.0
11.4
2.9
27.4
13.8
24.0
20.8
33.4
32.5
35.1
53.9
24.8
ECMM
00
Analogs
34.7
13.0
13.2
7.7
19.4
9.5
23.2
18.1
29.8
18.4
29.0
29.7
20.7
Klein
33.0
21.2
20.5
22.2
27.8
8.4
27.7
16.0
35.8
19.1
17.6
40.0
24.3
Klein_Prob
33.9
21.5
24.8
21.6
28.9
9.1
32.8
16.0
35.3
19.7
19.4
42.6
25.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
43.8
32.7
50.2
27.5
35.1
36.1
46.5
38.4
41.7
40.4
43.9
59.6
41.5
Uncal_Temp
30.7
16.4
20.7
18.2
30.4
32.5
39.4
27.3
34.9
32.8
31.5
49.8
30.6
ECMM
12
Analogs
29.6
15.0
14.9
7.3
14.8
7.8
23.7
24.3
29.6
18.4
26.2
32.6
20.5
Klein
29.3
21.5
20.7
21.3
26.5
6.7
28.3
18.8
34.2
18.5
14.6
38.5
23.4
Klein_Prob
29.7
20.8
25.0
21.1
30.3
6.8
32.1
20.8
33.6
19.6
16.2
41.5
24.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
43.9
39.8
53.5
26.5
37.8
38.2
47.9
42.9
45.7
42.4
47.2
60.7
43.9
Uncal_Temp
30.3
19.0
19.7
13.3
34.2
25.9
35.2
25.8
36.6
29.7
30.2
49.4
29.3
CANM
00
Analogs
28.2
7.1
14.9
13.0
10.9
9.6
25.0
18.4
24.5
11.4
26.7
30.8
18.4
Klein
27.2
13.7
19.2
17.8
17.5
7.8
21.1
21.7
30.7
17.4
23.9
39.2
21.5
Klein_Prob
25.9
12.8
22.2
18.8
19.5
7.0
24.9
22.7
32.7
18.0
24.9
42.8
22.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
22.4
6.1
9.3
13.2
12.9
5.4
22.6
15.6
27.5
9.6
21.1
21.6
15.9
Klein
20.8
11.4
15.3
18.1
18.8
5.7
19.7
18.9
29.5
16.7
18.8
32.3
18.9
Klein_Prob
21.9
14.2
17.6
19.2
22.5
4.2
21.2
19.4
29.8
16.6
20.2
36.2
20.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
32.0
7.6
11.2
7.3
8.4
6.5
19.5
16.1
28.7
18.4
27.6
35.2
18.6
Klein
22.8
10.2
20.1
12.0
18.1
5.8
26.4
12.0
30.9
9.6
17.9
42.0
19.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
29.9
3.9
10.4
11.7
14.9
5.8
16.5
23.2
26.0
11.8
31.2
33.0
18.4
Klein
26.8
11.5
22.8
13.0
20.2
5.3
27.9
16.4
31.1
9.8
21.0
40.7
20.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
26.6
5.9
9.0
7.6
11.8
5.8
24.2
22.6
28.6
13.0
28.6
30.1
17.9
Klein
25.8
12.7
16.7
10.2
16.3
7.3
30.7
17.4
30.9
8.3
15.3
38.3
19.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
28.9
8.7
13.8
10.8
13.3
4.1
20.8
18.2
33.0
16.7
28.6
30.9
19.1
Klein
27.9
13.8
22.1
12.1
17.3
8.5
26.3
16.5
35.8
11.6
22.7
39.1
21.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
31.3
7.8
11.1
4.4
15.8
5.9
15.4
17.8
29.9
25.2
27.4
29.2
18.6
Klein
27.1
24.1
21.0
14.4
27.2
9.7
24.9
19.5
33.4
20.9
18.5
36.3
23.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
30.9
12.4
15.7
7.3
13.9
8.5
20.4
21.4
30.4
21.4
21.9
30.3
19.7
Klein
24.1
19.8
24.9
14.2
23.9
8.6
31.1
23.7
30.5
17.9
14.6
36.2
22.6
NNet