D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Official
xx
All
37.8
29.4
54.4
38.1
48.5
62.2
37.8
48.1
49.9
41.6
38.9
42.8
44.1
ExpAuto
xx
All
37.9
31.2
56.7
44.0
48.3
65.4
38.8
52.5
43.5
43.9
35.8
46.3
45.0
Auto
xx
All
40.6
31.1
56.3
42.7
44.9
63.2
41.7
51.7
47.8
47.4
40.4
44.3
46.2
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
6.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6.5
Klein
17.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
17.8
NNet
3.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.0
GFSM
00
Analogs
9.1
4.2
19.2
6.9
22.3
42.8
17.2
7.8
16.8
19.0
19.6
9.0
16.4
Klein
14.3
10.8
18.8
8.7
23.1
32.1
13.7
21.7
22.3
20.7
25.2
25.5
20.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
27.1
23.2
46.5
41.7
41.6
56.4
24.6
50.8
 
 
 
 
38.5
GFSM
06
Analogs
6.0
7.6
16.9
9.6
25.5
43.8
14.8
5.3
19.1
20.4
18.7
7.6
16.7
Klein
12.4
9.7
20.5
9.0
23.5
30.2
15.8
22.9
21.3
22.5
25.5
28.9
20.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
25.6
22.4
45.4
44.2
41.5
56.5
22.9
50.0
 
 
 
 
38.3
GFSM
12
Analogs
7.1
5.2
16.0
6.8
21.3
44.9
12.3
0.8
21.8
16.7
13.1
10.6
15.2
Klein
7.3
7.1
13.9
8.0
20.0
23.7
10.7
15.5
20.4
15.0
20.3
26.4
16.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
21.1
22.9
45.5
47.0
42.9
56.7
26.2
57.8
 
 
 
 
39.7
GFSM
18
Analogs
6.0
10.1
16.3
6.4
19.9
44.3
11.1
3.2
22.4
18.1
14.6
6.3
15.3
Klein
10.9
10.1
16.4
5.4
17.8
23.8
10.1
16.6
17.4
18.8
18.7
24.8
16.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
38.7
25.0
43.4
44.5
42.3
56.7
21.8
55.2
 
 
 
 
39.2
GFSM
xx
Analogs
6.0
3.8
19.1
10.9
18.4
46.1
15.8
5.9
18.4
20.9
18.7
6.6
16.2
Klein
12.4
8.7
18.9
7.9
21.3
30.8
15.0
21.5
21.8
20.9
25.8
26.4
19.8
Klein_Prob
16.8
10.3
25.2
11.5
25.5
36.0
14.2
24.1
22.9
25.6
27.1
29.3
22.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
34.0
33.0
46.1
49.8
44.1
63.9
32.7
45.5
49.9
39.7
32.1
44.3
42.8
Uncal_Temp
23.6
11.5
22.5
25.6
26.8
48.0
22.8
23.8
27.7
21.6
28.9
27.2
25.9
ECMM
00
Analogs
7.5
5.3
19.4
6.2
25.6
41.1
22.9
13.3
17.0
16.6
18.2
6.7
16.8
Klein
14.8
9.2
25.9
10.1
27.6
33.1
15.6
21.4
15.3
23.1
28.1
29.6
21.4
Klein_Prob
16.9
12.1
29.9
14.8
31.2
36.0
16.0
26.3
14.8
26.6
28.8
33.0
24.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
35.9
32.9
56.3
43.9
40.0
58.0
38.8
48.0
47.6
48.1
39.5
50.9
44.8
Uncal_Temp
30.8
24.1
50.3
40.9
38.5
49.4
25.9
35.4
30.4
29.2
31.1
32.8
34.7
ECMM
12
Analogs
8.5
4.5
23.4
7.6
24.8
43.3
22.7
15.8
16.4
14.9
21.9
9.4
17.7
Klein
13.6
10.1
23.5
10.2
24.6
29.1
14.8
20.1
13.5
21.8
27.1
30.4
20.1
Klein_Prob
16.7
12.1
27.3
14.6
28.7
32.0
14.3
23.9
14.8
26.8
27.2
33.5
22.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
38.0
36.1
56.6
49.2
42.8
63.7
42.9
49.9
51.8
52.8
40.2
52.4
47.8
Uncal_Temp
29.0
20.8
48.6
39.9
36.2
46.5
27.0
32.8
30.1
28.5
32.9
27.5
33.1
CANM
00
Analogs
14.9
5.3
10.9
7.3
25.4
39.9
13.8
5.8
19.7
15.4
18.2
10.9
15.9
Klein
18.3
3.6
13.3
14.6
20.2
32.0
14.4
22.3
29.6
22.1
23.5
29.2
20.6
Klein_Prob
21.4
4.8
20.3
17.9
24.1
36.1
14.6
28.6
28.7
24.6
26.2
33.1
23.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
9.5
4.8
12.9
7.6
21.6
38.4
10.7
8.1
23.9
15.2
15.4
13.7
15.3
Klein
12.3
3.3
10.1
12.9
18.7
24.5
11.8
18.1
26.9
17.1
18.8
26.2
17.2
Klein_Prob
14.0
3.5
12.9
16.7
21.5
29.2
12.1
23.0
26.4
18.5
19.3
29.1
19.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
5.3
-0.8
18.6
8.7
23.2
42.6
18.4
4.5
14.6
13.3
19.8
7.0
14.7
Klein
18.8
6.0
22.8
12.5
21.4
33.9
8.7
16.1
15.5
16.4
25.3
24.4
18.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
7.0
0.3
19.1
8.8
22.5
39.0
22.5
6.4
16.6
16.6
18.6
6.5
15.4
Klein
15.8
9.2
23.5
15.2
19.6
31.5
14.2
20.4
18.2
17.1
26.5
27.1
20.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
5.7
-3.4
17.7
2.2
21.9
40.5
14.6
4.8
19.2
13.5
17.2
10.2
13.9
Klein
16.1
9.0
18.9
6.2
21.3
26.3
6.4
18.1
19.5
12.6
17.0
26.8
16.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
2.7
1.7
16.7
6.0
26.2
36.9
11.5
2.4
19.4
17.6
14.4
12.1
14.4
Klein
14.5
10.1
22.3
12.3
19.9
23.7
7.0
21.0
21.2
16.1
18.8
24.8
18.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
6.4
8.8
19.4
6.5
26.9
38.4
18.1
15.7
23.0
10.6
20.0
8.1
16.8
Klein
12.8
14.2
26.6
9.0
28.7
29.0
11.4
18.4
18.6
21.6
26.3
25.5
20.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
3.8
5.7
16.7
6.1
29.1
41.3
20.1
13.8
27.6
11.6
20.7
6.0
16.7
Klein
9.9
11.2
26.1
9.1
26.0
25.2
11.6
17.5
13.5
18.5
24.9
24.2
18.2
NNet