D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
Aug 16
Sep 16
Oct 16
Nov 16
Dec 16
Jan 17
Feb 17
Mar 17
Official
xx
All
41.6
38.9
42.8
52.9
42.8
42.2
56.6
62.8
41.6
61.9
55.1
34.6
47.9
ExpAuto
xx
All
43.9
35.8
46.3
50.8
43.9
48.9
57.5
59.3
42.2
55.7
56.0
37.8
48.4
Auto
xx
All
47.4
40.4
44.3
53.3
46.5
49.7
59.1
61.7
38.0
58.6
58.7
37.8
49.8
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
19.0
19.6
9.0
10.1
4.0
10.4
20.2
15.7
26.0
28.5
5.7
23.0
16.3
Klein
20.7
25.2
25.5
29.7
12.8
23.8
21.1
18.3
23.5
23.6
6.8
25.3
21.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
20.4
18.7
7.6
12.7
0.5
8.0
22.9
14.1
25.1
27.6
9.5
21.0
16.0
Klein
22.5
25.5
28.9
31.4
13.9
21.6
21.6
21.8
25.9
22.6
10.1
23.0
22.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
16.7
13.1
10.6
9.0
-0.6
7.8
21.5
12.9
25.0
18.7
5.5
24.9
14.1
Klein
15.0
20.3
26.4
28.2
9.4
17.6
13.7
12.8
20.2
15.9
6.5
20.2
17.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
18.1
14.6
6.3
9.6
5.0
6.6
18.4
12.9
19.7
14.9
1.8
21.1
12.6
Klein
18.8
18.7
24.8
29.9
10.8
17.2
14.9
13.4
21.1
16.1
6.0
17.7
17.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
20.9
18.7
6.6
7.2
5.3
10.1
22.8
15.2
26.8
26.2
6.3
26.8
16.4
Klein
20.9
25.8
26.4
29.1
13.2
19.9
19.6
18.6
25.7
24.3
6.6
22.3
21.4
Klein_Prob
25.6
27.1
29.3
34.0
20.0
28.0
29.1
24.1
27.6
24.5
13.6
27.9
26.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
39.7
32.1
44.3
54.8
42.0
43.3
56.7
59.7
36.8
50.6
48.3
39.4
45.9
Uncal_Temp
21.6
28.9
27.2
36.3
23.0
33.8
39.2
39.3
26.0
44.9
23.7
17.8
30.5
ECMM
00
Analogs
16.6
18.2
6.7
14.2
7.1
14.2
32.0
26.9
25.2
32.7
4.7
25.8
18.9
Klein
23.1
28.1
29.6
22.8
8.6
19.3
28.8
27.6
26.6
23.6
15.9
25.6
23.6
Klein_Prob
26.6
28.8
33.0
27.5
12.5
26.0
35.6
30.2
28.7
24.1
20.5
28.4
27.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
48.1
39.5
50.9
53.8
44.6
46.9
59.9
59.9
29.0
56.6
54.0
42.0
48.9
Uncal_Temp
29.2
31.1
32.8
41.0
32.8
41.2
49.8
49.1
24.9
47.1
34.0
26.0
36.8
ECMM
12
Analogs
14.9
21.9
9.4
17.7
8.2
12.6
31.9
29.6
24.4
26.9
4.4
31.1
19.5
Klein
21.8
27.1
30.4
25.1
7.1
19.9
26.9
24.1
23.9
19.7
17.5
24.3
22.6
Klein_Prob
26.8
27.2
33.5
29.9
10.5
26.4
33.5
27.3
25.4
20.1
22.3
27.6
26.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
52.8
40.2
52.4
56.4
47.0
49.5
59.9
62.1
36.7
62.5
55.5
44.6
51.7
Uncal_Temp
28.5
32.9
27.5
38.2
27.6
39.0
45.7
44.3
27.9
48.9
33.0
28.1
35.3
CANM
00
Analogs
15.4
18.2
10.9
13.8
-0.0
17.3
17.6
19.3
21.6
27.9
13.4
22.1
16.6
Klein
22.1
23.5
29.2
18.2
1.3
19.0
18.6
25.1
24.1
25.3
17.2
24.5
21.0
Klein_Prob
24.6
26.2
33.1
23.3
4.4
24.7
25.3
27.6
26.4
26.5
22.6
26.6
24.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
15.2
15.4
13.7
12.4
0.8
10.6
21.4
7.7
16.9
26.1
16.2
19.6
14.9
Klein
17.1
18.8
26.2
14.8
-0.2
11.1
15.9
18.2
19.0
18.6
18.0
21.6
16.8
Klein_Prob
18.5
19.3
29.1
20.6
1.5
16.7
22.3
20.6
19.3
18.8
22.4
24.1
19.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
13.3
19.8
7.0
10.3
7.7
12.2
22.7
27.6
21.6
33.1
5.4
20.4
16.9
Klein
16.4
25.3
24.4
30.0
14.0
25.9
21.0
23.4
22.9
24.2
15.3
20.4
22.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
16.6
18.6
6.5
7.2
2.2
9.5
16.9
24.1
24.0
31.1
6.5
22.6
15.6
Klein
17.1
26.5
27.1
28.6
13.8
21.5
18.8
24.2
24.1
22.8
18.0
23.4
22.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
13.5
17.2
10.2
11.3
4.5
8.9
11.0
23.6
20.8
25.5
3.7
22.8
14.7
Klein
12.6
17.0
26.8
29.0
11.9
22.8
16.9
22.1
22.6
20.6
18.1
19.9
20.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
17.6
14.4
12.1
7.6
7.2
10.6
16.7
22.9
18.9
27.6
8.8
14.0
15.1
Klein
16.1
18.8
24.8
28.2
15.1
24.7
20.1
17.6
21.6
19.0
18.0
17.3
20.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
10.6
20.0
8.1
14.3
9.4
10.0
17.3
17.9
13.9
29.6
7.9
28.4
15.8
Klein
21.6
26.3
25.5
25.9
12.1
20.9
22.0
24.5
21.5
21.1
19.4
24.4
22.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
11.6
20.7
6.0
13.9
8.6
8.3
18.3
17.4
14.0
24.0
-0.9
25.3
14.2
Klein
18.5
24.9
24.2
24.6
7.1
20.2
20.2
21.0
17.6
17.3
17.9
25.7
20.3
NNet