D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Aug 17
Sep 17
Oct 17
Nov 17
Dec 17
Jan 18
Feb 18
Mar 18
Apr 18
May 18
Jun 18
Jul 18
Official
xx
All
29.1
59.8
50.3
37.5
46.4
37.5
45.7
34.2
43.7
58.0
40.9
46.1
44.5
ExpAuto
xx
All
51.9
38.0
52.4
37.6
52.2
39.5
50.5
33.5
42.3
60.1
41.0
46.2
45.3
Auto
xx
All
31.4
61.7
52.4
37.4
52.2
39.4
76.2
33.0
42.0
56.0
40.3
46.6
45.7
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
12.7
8.8
25.5
11.7
19.9
10.0
28.0
17.0
17.2
12.9
7.7
18.4
16.1
Klein
14.8
28.5
31.1
22.1
8.5
11.4
37.7
22.0
19.5
10.7
20.3
24.6
21.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
13.7
10.7
33.3
9.4
21.4
6.4
34.0
17.7
19.6
8.1
5.6
21.1
16.9
Klein
16.4
28.2
33.3
24.5
11.0
10.4
39.2
22.8
19.9
9.2
19.4
26.3
21.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
16.3
10.4
23.6
13.5
18.0
2.3
26.7
10.6
18.5
6.1
10.3
16.6
14.3
Klein
18.0
28.3
29.3
19.6
6.8
4.5
35.9
19.0
21.6
8.0
17.5
23.5
19.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
13.8
9.6
24.6
12.8
19.1
8.6
24.1
12.7
23.1
7.7
6.9
14.0
14.7
Klein
15.8
27.6
28.3
20.0
6.6
7.3
32.7
16.0
25.9
10.2
16.9
22.8
19.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
13.8
8.0
29.5
10.5
20.8
5.8
27.7
15.1
18.6
9.8
8.3
17.7
15.6
Klein
15.7
27.2
32.2
22.6
9.0
7.5
38.7
21.6
18.6
7.5
19.9
25.4
20.6
Klein_Prob
18.8
33.9
35.7
22.7
13.8
13.3
40.2
22.4
22.3
13.9
22.6
29.9
24.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
35.0
48.9
50.5
33.4
50.3
36.1
40.9
24.7
43.1
54.0
48.2
52.2
43.2
Uncal_Temp
19.2
40.5
38.0
25.8
37.9
23.4
33.6
28.1
30.6
24.2
29.9
31.1
30.0
ECMM
00
Analogs
12.8
15.4
29.2
18.4
24.3
11.5
32.0
21.8
7.2
11.1
3.5
22.6
17.4
Klein
18.2
30.3
33.4
25.2
18.2
5.3
39.1
24.8
15.5
11.0
26.8
25.0
22.8
Klein_Prob
18.6
35.3
34.8
26.2
22.1
9.6
40.5
24.8
19.2
17.9
27.9
26.7
25.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
33.8
57.2
45.2
34.5
52.4
38.6
68.1
35.8
40.6
45.4
47.1
51.3
45.5
Uncal_Temp
14.7
49.0
41.3
30.7
47.3
29.1
44.1
29.5
28.0
20.7
28.8
30.9
32.9
ECMM
12
Analogs
13.8
12.2
29.8
19.7
25.6
7.9
27.9
22.4
11.5
8.9
3.5
21.0
17.1
Klein
20.1
30.4
30.1
23.6
17.9
4.5
35.4
19.7
16.8
9.1
26.5
22.3
21.5
Klein_Prob
20.4
36.2
32.5
25.7
22.5
6.0
36.8
19.4
20.2
16.9
29.6
25.4
24.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
37.1
60.2
50.8
39.7
55.3
40.2
46.6
39.7
42.4
46.5
52.6
51.1
47.1
Uncal_Temp
14.9
46.9
44.1
31.4
45.9
27.7
40.8
27.7
28.7
13.1
23.8
27.1
31.0
CANM
00
Analogs
12.2
20.7
29.9
16.1
9.5
6.4
34.9
19.8
15.6
11.9
5.7
18.1
16.8
Klein
16.5
30.6
24.9
25.6
10.6
4.3
37.4
19.3
15.2
11.5
25.0
25.2
20.7
Klein_Prob
18.1
36.2
28.2
26.0
13.3
7.8
38.6
20.3
16.9
18.6
26.6
28.8
23.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
12.2
14.0
23.6
15.6
6.7
6.9
35.1
19.1
10.7
12.4
7.0
18.4
15.0
Klein
16.4
24.8
22.5
24.2
5.0
-0.9
33.4
14.7
9.6
10.7
24.5
23.1
17.4
Klein_Prob
20.1
31.2
26.7
25.2
9.7
2.5
35.3
15.8
12.8
19.1
26.0
26.4
20.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
13.4
8.2
25.4
11.0
16.2
11.3
28.9
16.3
16.6
8.4
8.2
19.9
15.3
Klein
15.7
29.0
29.8
22.5
11.6
18.7
40.0
16.9
20.7
15.1
19.0
27.2
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
15.4
27.4
32.3
25.2
18.6
18.8
31.1
14.4
16.3
7.2
9.0
21.4
16.4
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
36.3
15.8
16.9
13.7
16.9
21.8
21.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
10.2
15.6
22.6
6.0
16.8
11.6
29.8
13.3
20.8
6.4
2.8
15.7
14.3
Klein
17.5
32.5
28.9
18.4
14.1
17.6
36.5
15.9
20.8
6.2
18.0
24.1
20.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
11.7
7.9
25.4
11.5
17.5
14.7
33.2
12.4
21.1
6.4
3.1
16.0
15.2
Klein
17.6
31.4
34.1
21.6
14.1
21.0
37.7
15.9
19.3
17.9
17.2
22.0
22.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
11.6
10.9
21.4
19.3
19.4
13.8
55.4
20.4
10.5
8.3
1.0
16.9
14.0
Klein
14.8
28.1
25.2
21.4
14.1
16.2
38.7
24.4
17.0
12.2
22.5
29.4
22.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
11.6
9.8
24.3
17.9
26.0
10.4
29.3
19.9
10.1
7.5
5.0
17.8
15.7
Klein
18.2
25.8
25.5
17.6
13.7
11.2
32.7
20.6
17.1
14.2
20.7
25.9
20.4
NNet