D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
Official
xx
All
28.8
44.6
31.0
41.5
36.3
49.5
63.3
49.8
43.5
41.5
33.6
37.8
42.1
ExpAuto
xx
All
34.4
49.1
38.8
34.9
42.4
50.2
61.2
52.4
40.8
41.6
38.2
37.9
43.9
Auto
xx
All
9.2
37.3
21.9
35.9
42.4
50.5
61.6
51.5
37.9
 
 
40.6
39.2
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-1.3
-5.5
21.0
12.1
-2.3
0.6
-14.8
-2.9
1.5
-0.2
 
6.5
1.1
Klein
7.3
32.9
13.3
37.3
14.6
20.8
47.6
8.2
20.0
9.8
 
17.8
24.5
NNet
-2.8
18.8
20.8
29.9
15.6
27.6
40.4
23.1
15.0
2.0
 
3.0
20.8
GFSM
00
Analogs
5.8
23.9
16.6
29.7
15.5
28.6
33.1
9.7
21.3
19.5
4.8
9.1
18.4
Klein
6.4
29.4
13.1
31.4
12.3
20.4
44.9
33.2
17.2
18.2
15.1
14.3
21.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
19.7
37.7
38.7
28.4
38.2
44.1
57.4
48.4
35.2
27.8
32.6
27.1
37.1
GFSM
06
Analogs
8.4
24.7
17.4
30.1
14.3
29.5
34.9
15.8
24.6
18.2
6.5
6.0
19.5
Klein
6.3
31.9
11.3
30.9
12.0
21.2
45.8
31.5
19.8
19.0
17.4
12.4
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
20.8
37.9
39.6
29.1
37.7
46.0
57.0
48.1
33.9
23.2
33.2
25.6
36.8
GFSM
12
Analogs
7.1
25.6
24.8
31.8
13.6
22.4
29.4
15.1
22.3
16.7
6.8
7.1
18.6
Klein
6.0
25.6
14.6
27.9
6.3
12.6
40.7
28.4
16.2
16.1
17.8
7.3
18.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
21.2
39.4
41.5
32.2
40.0
47.6
59.7
50.5
36.2
31.1
32.9
21.1
39.0
GFSM
18
Analogs
8.1
24.0
24.7
31.4
12.5
23.6
32.1
9.7
23.3
12.8
6.6
6.0
18.0
Klein
6.2
27.2
15.0
30.0
8.9
16.7
46.1
27.3
16.1
16.1
18.1
10.9
20.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
21.7
38.6
42.8
33.0
39.3
49.0
59.3
47.8
34.0
24.2
32.9
38.7
38.6
GFSM
xx
Analogs
5.7
22.6
17.2
28.9
16.6
28.0
33.6
11.0
23.8
16.8
5.0
6.0
18.2
Klein
6.6
30.6
13.1
30.9
12.5
21.1
46.0
32.9
17.2
18.2
15.9
12.4
21.8
Klein_Prob
6.7
34.1
14.3
30.8
13.6
21.6
48.4
36.4
20.4
22.6
18.2
16.8
24.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
29.9
44.3
43.1
39.8
38.2
47.7
56.9
42.4
38.7
32.8
33.8
34.0
40.5
Uncal_Temp
13.8
24.0
20.8
33.4
32.5
35.1
53.9
22.8
6.9
11.1
20.4
23.6
25.2
ECMM
00
Analogs
9.5
23.2
18.1
29.8
18.4
29.0
29.7
10.5
12.3
21.4
5.3
7.5
18.1
Klein
8.4
27.7
16.0
35.8
19.1
17.6
40.0
35.0
20.3
24.9
16.9
14.8
23.4
Klein_Prob
9.1
32.8
16.0
35.3
19.7
19.4
42.6
39.5
21.0
28.2
17.7
16.9
25.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
36.1
46.5
38.4
41.7
40.4
43.9
59.6
50.1
40.5
43.4
40.6
35.9
43.2
Uncal_Temp
32.5
39.4
27.3
34.9
32.8
31.5
49.8
27.8
22.4
28.0
31.2
30.8
32.5
ECMM
12
Analogs
7.8
23.7
24.3
29.6
18.4
26.2
32.6
15.2
18.4
22.7
6.9
8.5
19.7
Klein
6.7
28.3
18.8
34.2
18.5
14.6
38.5
35.6
18.6
25.1
18.2
13.6
22.9
Klein_Prob
6.8
32.1
20.8
33.6
19.6
16.2
41.5
40.0
19.4
28.0
19.4
16.7
24.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
38.2
47.9
42.9
45.7
42.4
47.2
60.7
53.5
44.1
43.7
42.0
38.0
45.5
Uncal_Temp
25.9
35.2
25.8
36.6
29.7
30.2
49.4
25.8
18.1
27.6
29.7
29.0
30.3
CANM
00
Analogs
9.6
25.0
18.4
24.5
11.4
26.7
30.8
9.1
18.7
17.2
6.0
14.9
17.9
Klein
7.8
21.1
21.7
30.7
17.4
23.9
39.2
38.3
25.7
20.3
17.5
18.3
23.9
Klein_Prob
7.0
24.9
22.7
32.7
18.0
24.9
42.8
41.4
28.9
24.0
18.7
21.4
26.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
5.4
22.6
15.6
27.5
9.6
21.1
21.6
10.1
17.3
14.1
6.9
9.5
15.5
Klein
5.7
19.7
18.9
29.5
16.7
18.8
32.3
39.2
21.2
17.8
17.8
12.3
21.1
Klein_Prob
4.2
21.2
19.4
29.8
16.6
20.2
36.2
41.6
23.9
23.3
18.7
14.0
22.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
6.5
19.5
16.1
28.7
18.4
27.6
35.2
10.7
16.8
5.7
4.0
5.3
16.5
Klein
5.8
26.4
12.0
30.9
9.6
17.9
42.0
31.5
12.7
18.7
10.4
18.8
20.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
5.8
16.5
23.2
26.0
11.8
31.2
33.0
13.7
16.0
7.8
7.2
7.0
16.7
Klein
5.3
27.9
16.4
31.1
9.8
21.0
40.7
33.9
19.1
19.2
15.8
15.8
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
5.8
24.2
22.6
28.6
13.0
28.6
30.1
11.8
19.5
15.2
6.5
5.7
17.8
Klein
7.3
30.7
17.4
30.9
8.3
15.3
38.3
29.5
16.4
22.4
16.2
16.1
20.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
4.1
20.8
18.2
33.0
16.7
28.6
30.9
8.8
23.7
14.9
4.0
2.7
17.4
Klein
8.5
26.3
16.5
35.8
11.6
22.7
39.1
30.2
16.8
17.8
18.0
14.5
21.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
5.9
15.4
17.8
29.9
25.2
27.4
29.2
10.5
15.2
16.8
5.4
6.4
17.2
Klein
9.7
24.9
19.5
33.4
20.9
18.5
36.3
28.7
16.7
23.8
14.1
12.8
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
8.5
20.4
21.4
30.4
21.4
21.9
30.3
14.9
16.6
19.6
6.0
3.8
18.1
Klein
8.6
31.1
23.7
30.5
17.9
14.6
36.2
31.3
17.2
23.3
15.2
9.9
21.8
NNet