D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Official
xx
All
48.5
44.0
60.9
44.5
27.5
48.5
19.9
34.4
28.8
44.6
31.0
41.5
39.9
ExpAuto
xx
All
49.1
51.3
61.0
46.1
27.2
46.2
23.2
33.6
34.4
49.1
38.8
34.9
41.3
Auto
xx
All
42.7
50.8
52.7
51.5
26.8
32.6
14.1
30.4
9.2
37.3
21.9
35.9
33.8
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
6.1
-6.7
-8.5
0.8
1.2
-3.8
2.2
-5.2
-1.3
-5.5
21.0
12.1
0.9
Klein
27.4
38.1
34.3
34.8
18.1
27.0
17.4
28.5
7.3
32.9
13.3
37.3
26.4
NNet
19.5
26.6
27.6
26.2
13.3
15.7
13.1
-3.5
-2.8
18.8
20.8
29.9
17.1
GFSM
00
Analogs
24.0
37.2
20.7
27.5
6.2
15.5
9.3
13.7
5.8
23.9
16.6
29.7
19.0
Klein
23.3
31.1
31.4
25.5
13.3
14.8
13.6
20.6
6.4
29.4
13.1
31.4
21.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
39.9
37.7
56.0
37.0
16.2
33.9
15.2
19.7
19.7
37.7
38.7
28.4
31.8
GFSM
06
Analogs
24.1
36.0
17.2
30.0
7.0
11.4
10.0
14.4
8.4
24.7
17.4
30.1
19.1
Klein
22.9
30.0
30.2
26.6
13.2
16.0
15.9
21.2
6.3
31.9
11.3
30.9
21.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
45.8
 
 
30.7
-8.3
35.1
13.5
24.9
20.8
37.9
39.6
29.1
27.9
GFSM
12
Analogs
19.9
32.7
14.9
23.9
1.9
12.0
13.1
15.2
7.1
25.6
24.8
31.8
18.5
Klein
16.1
27.0
23.6
19.4
9.6
11.6
13.4
20.1
6.0
25.6
14.6
27.9
17.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
41.6
39.4
56.8
36.1
20.4
35.6
16.5
21.3
21.2
39.4
41.5
32.2
33.4
GFSM
18
Analogs
23.2
32.2
12.6
21.9
4.4
13.8
10.6
14.4
8.1
24.0
24.7
31.4
18.1
Klein
19.0
27.2
20.2
22.5
9.4
13.8
14.2
21.1
6.2
27.2
15.0
30.0
18.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
40.8
43.4
54.6
34.9
17.7
34.6
16.0
23.5
21.7
38.6
42.8
33.0
33.3
GFSM
xx
Analogs
22.6
37.9
18.4
26.6
7.0
13.1
10.8
15.6
5.7
22.6
17.2
28.9
18.9
Klein
23.5
30.8
31.0
26.6
12.8
15.5
14.9
21.6
6.6
30.6
13.1
30.9
21.6
Klein_Prob
24.9
31.7
32.4
27.7
14.4
20.5
16.4
22.9
6.7
34.1
14.3
30.8
23.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
45.0
40.6
54.9
40.9
29.4
45.8
29.2
32.3
29.9
44.3
43.1
39.8
39.8
Uncal_Temp
33.3
37.0
46.5
29.0
9.0
11.4
2.9
27.4
13.8
24.0
20.8
33.4
24.2
ECMM
00
Analogs
26.6
36.7
20.9
34.7
13.0
13.2
7.7
19.4
9.5
23.2
18.1
29.8
21.0
Klein
23.0
35.5
32.1
33.0
21.2
20.5
22.2
27.8
8.4
27.7
16.0
35.8
25.2
Klein_Prob
23.9
39.2
33.9
33.9
21.5
24.8
21.6
28.9
9.1
32.8
16.0
35.3
26.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
46.4
46.7
51.0
43.8
32.7
50.2
27.5
35.1
36.1
46.5
38.4
41.7
41.5
Uncal_Temp
35.0
39.2
46.0
30.7
16.4
20.7
18.2
30.4
32.5
39.4
27.3
34.9
31.0
ECMM
12
Analogs
26.2
39.4
19.6
29.6
15.0
14.9
7.3
14.8
7.8
23.7
24.3
29.6
20.9
Klein
23.3
38.0
31.5
29.3
21.5
20.7
21.3
26.5
6.7
28.3
18.8
34.2
24.9
Klein_Prob
23.4
39.9
32.8
29.7
20.8
25.0
21.1
30.3
6.8
32.1
20.8
33.6
26.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
47.1
50.0
52.0
43.9
39.8
53.5
26.5
37.8
38.2
47.9
42.9
45.7
43.9
Uncal_Temp
31.9
43.0
45.9
30.3
19.0
19.7
13.3
34.2
25.9
35.2
25.8
36.6
30.0
CANM
00
Analogs
19.8
33.0
15.6
28.2
7.1
14.9
13.0
10.9
9.6
25.0
18.4
24.5
18.1
Klein
18.1
34.1
24.8
27.2
13.7
19.2
17.8
17.5
7.8
21.1
21.7
30.7
21.1
Klein_Prob
17.7
35.7
27.0
25.9
12.8
22.2
18.8
19.5
7.0
24.9
22.7
32.7
22.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
15.5
34.3
10.0
22.4
6.1
9.3
13.2
12.9
5.4
22.6
15.6
27.5
16.2
Klein
9.6
30.7
17.3
20.8
11.4
15.3
18.1
18.8
5.7
19.7
18.9
29.5
17.9
Klein_Prob
10.6
33.7
19.2
21.9
14.2
17.6
19.2
22.5
4.2
21.2
19.4
29.8
19.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
22.2
34.2
20.0
32.0
7.6
11.2
7.3
8.4
6.5
19.5
16.1
28.7
17.9
Klein
23.4
27.8
29.2
22.8
10.2
20.1
12.0
18.1
5.8
26.4
12.0
30.9
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
22.9
35.6
21.3
29.9
3.9
10.4
11.7
14.9
5.8
16.5
23.2
26.0
18.6
Klein
24.9
31.3
30.9
26.8
11.5
22.8
13.0
20.2
5.3
27.9
16.4
31.1
21.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
19.3
35.0
20.2
26.6
5.9
9.0
7.6
11.8
5.8
24.2
22.6
28.6
17.9
Klein
18.2
28.4
28.9
25.8
12.7
16.7
10.2
16.3
7.3
30.7
17.4
30.9
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
13.8
32.6
18.1
28.9
8.7
13.8
10.8
13.3
4.1
20.8
18.2
33.0
17.9
Klein
18.0
30.8
27.7
27.9
13.8
22.1
12.1
17.3
8.5
26.3
16.5
35.8
21.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
23.5
30.7
22.4
31.3
7.8
11.1
4.4
15.8
5.9
15.4
17.8
29.9
17.8
Klein
19.1
35.4
29.4
27.1
24.1
21.0
14.4
27.2
9.7
24.9
19.5
33.4
23.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
23.6
30.9
21.3
30.9
12.4
15.7
7.3
13.9
8.5
20.4
21.4
30.4
19.6
Klein
18.0
34.3
27.6
24.1
19.8
24.9
14.2
23.9
8.6
31.1
23.7
30.5
23.4
NNet