D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
Aug 16
Sep 16
Oct 16
Nov 16
Dec 16
Official
xx
All
37.8
48.1
49.9
41.6
38.9
42.8
52.9
42.8
42.2
56.6
62.8
41.6
46.5
ExpAuto
xx
All
38.8
52.5
43.5
43.9
35.8
46.3
50.8
43.9
48.9
57.5
59.3
42.2
46.9
Auto
xx
All
41.7
51.7
47.8
47.4
40.4
44.3
53.3
46.5
49.7
59.1
61.7
38.0
48.3
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
17.2
7.8
16.8
19.0
19.6
9.0
10.1
4.0
10.4
20.2
15.7
26.0
14.9
Klein
13.7
21.7
22.3
20.7
25.2
25.5
29.7
12.8
23.8
21.1
18.3
23.5
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
24.6
50.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
14.8
5.3
19.1
20.4
18.7
7.6
12.7
0.5
8.0
22.9
14.1
25.1
14.4
Klein
15.8
22.9
21.3
22.5
25.5
28.9
31.4
13.9
21.6
21.6
21.8
25.9
23.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
22.9
50.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
12.3
0.8
21.8
16.7
13.1
10.6
9.0
-0.6
7.8
21.5
12.9
25.0
12.8
Klein
10.7
15.5
20.4
15.0
20.3
26.4
28.2
9.4
17.6
13.7
12.8
20.2
17.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
26.2
57.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
11.1
3.2
22.4
18.1
14.6
6.3
9.6
5.0
6.6
18.4
12.9
19.7
12.5
Klein
10.1
16.6
17.4
18.8
18.7
24.8
29.9
10.8
17.2
14.9
13.4
21.1
18.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
21.8
55.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
15.8
5.9
18.4
20.9
18.7
6.6
7.2
5.3
10.1
22.8
15.2
26.8
14.7
Klein
15.0
21.5
21.8
20.9
25.8
26.4
29.1
13.2
19.9
19.6
18.6
25.7
21.9
Klein_Prob
14.2
24.1
22.9
25.6
27.1
29.3
34.0
20.0
28.0
29.1
24.1
27.6
26.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
32.7
45.5
49.9
39.7
32.1
44.3
54.8
42.0
43.3
56.7
59.7
36.8
44.8
Uncal_Temp
22.8
23.8
27.7
21.6
28.9
27.2
36.3
23.0
33.8
39.2
39.3
26.0
29.2
ECMM
00
Analogs
22.9
13.3
17.0
16.6
18.2
6.7
14.2
7.1
14.2
32.0
26.9
25.2
18.0
Klein
15.6
21.4
15.3
23.1
28.1
29.6
22.8
8.6
19.3
28.8
27.6
26.6
22.6
Klein_Prob
16.0
26.3
14.8
26.6
28.8
33.0
27.5
12.5
26.0
35.6
30.2
28.7
25.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
38.8
48.0
47.6
48.1
39.5
50.9
53.8
44.6
46.9
59.9
59.9
29.0
47.2
Uncal_Temp
25.9
35.4
30.4
29.2
31.1
32.8
41.0
32.8
41.2
49.8
49.1
24.9
35.2
ECMM
12
Analogs
22.7
15.8
16.4
14.9
21.9
9.4
17.7
8.2
12.6
31.9
29.6
24.4
18.8
Klein
14.8
20.1
13.5
21.8
27.1
30.4
25.1
7.1
19.9
26.9
24.1
23.9
21.5
Klein_Prob
14.3
23.9
14.8
26.8
27.2
33.5
29.9
10.5
26.4
33.5
27.3
25.4
24.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
42.9
49.9
51.8
52.8
40.2
52.4
56.4
47.0
49.5
59.9
62.1
36.7
50.0
Uncal_Temp
27.0
32.8
30.1
28.5
32.9
27.5
38.2
27.6
39.0
45.7
44.3
27.9
33.3
CANM
00
Analogs
13.8
5.8
19.7
15.4
18.2
10.9
13.8
-0.0
17.3
17.6
19.3
21.6
14.6
Klein
14.4
22.3
29.6
22.1
23.5
29.2
18.2
1.3
19.0
18.6
25.1
24.1
20.9
Klein_Prob
14.6
28.6
28.7
24.6
26.2
33.1
23.3
4.4
24.7
25.3
27.6
26.4
24.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
10.7
8.1
23.9
15.2
15.4
13.7
12.4
0.8
10.6
21.4
7.7
16.9
13.2
Klein
11.8
18.1
26.9
17.1
18.8
26.2
14.8
-0.2
11.1
15.9
18.2
19.0
16.7
Klein_Prob
12.1
23.0
26.4
18.5
19.3
29.1
20.6
1.5
16.7
22.3
20.6
19.3
19.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
18.4
4.5
14.6
13.3
19.8
7.0
10.3
7.7
12.2
22.7
27.6
21.6
15.0
Klein
8.7
16.1
15.5
16.4
25.3
24.4
30.0
14.0
25.9
21.0
23.4
22.9
20.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
22.5
6.4
16.6
16.6
18.6
6.5
7.2
2.2
9.5
16.9
24.1
24.0
14.3
Klein
14.2
20.4
18.2
17.1
26.5
27.1
28.6
13.8
21.5
18.8
24.2
24.1
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
14.6
4.8
19.2
13.5
17.2
10.2
11.3
4.5
8.9
11.0
23.6
20.8
13.5
Klein
6.4
18.1
19.5
12.6
17.0
26.8
29.0
11.9
22.8
16.9
22.1
22.6
19.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
11.5
2.4
19.4
17.6
14.4
12.1
7.6
7.2
10.6
16.7
22.9
18.9
13.7
Klein
7.0
21.0
21.2
16.1
18.8
24.8
28.2
15.1
24.7
20.1
17.6
21.6
20.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
18.1
15.7
23.0
10.6
20.0
8.1
14.3
9.4
10.0
17.3
17.9
13.9
15.0
Klein
11.4
18.4
18.6
21.6
26.3
25.5
25.9
12.1
20.9
22.0
24.5
21.5
21.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
20.1
13.8
27.6
11.6
20.7
6.0
13.9
8.6
8.3
18.3
17.4
14.0
15.1
Klein
11.6
17.5
13.5
18.5
24.9
24.2
24.6
7.1
20.2
20.2
21.0
17.6
18.8
NNet