D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
Official
xx
All
41.5
33.6
37.8
29.4
54.4
38.1
48.5
62.2
37.8
48.1
49.9
41.6
43.7
ExpAuto
xx
All
41.6
38.2
37.9
31.2
56.7
44.0
48.3
65.4
38.8
52.5
43.5
43.9
45.0
Auto
xx
All
 
 
40.6
31.1
56.3
42.7
44.9
63.2
41.7
51.7
47.8
47.4
47.1
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-0.2
 
6.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.0
Klein
9.8
 
17.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12.4
NNet
2.0
 
3.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.4
GFSM
00
Analogs
19.5
4.8
9.1
4.2
19.2
6.9
22.3
42.8
17.2
7.8
16.8
19.0
16.0
Klein
18.2
15.1
14.3
10.8
18.8
8.7
23.1
32.1
13.7
21.7
22.3
20.7
18.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
27.8
32.6
27.1
23.2
46.5
41.7
41.6
56.4
24.6
50.8
 
 
36.5
GFSM
06
Analogs
18.2
6.5
6.0
7.6
16.9
9.6
25.5
43.8
14.8
5.3
19.1
20.4
16.6
Klein
19.0
17.4
12.4
9.7
20.5
9.0
23.5
30.2
15.8
22.9
21.3
22.5
19.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
23.2
33.2
25.6
22.4
45.4
44.2
41.5
56.5
22.9
50.0
 
 
35.9
GFSM
12
Analogs
16.7
6.8
7.1
5.2
16.0
6.8
21.3
44.9
12.3
0.8
21.8
16.7
15.2
Klein
16.1
17.8
7.3
7.1
13.9
8.0
20.0
23.7
10.7
15.5
20.4
15.0
15.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
31.1
32.9
21.1
22.9
45.5
47.0
42.9
56.7
26.2
57.8
 
 
37.9
GFSM
18
Analogs
12.8
6.6
6.0
10.1
16.3
6.4
19.9
44.3
11.1
3.2
22.4
18.1
15.2
Klein
16.1
18.1
10.9
10.1
16.4
5.4
17.8
23.8
10.1
16.6
17.4
18.8
15.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
24.2
32.9
38.7
25.0
43.4
44.5
42.3
56.7
21.8
55.2
 
 
36.6
GFSM
xx
Analogs
16.8
5.0
6.0
3.8
19.1
10.9
18.4
46.1
15.8
5.9
18.4
20.9
15.9
Klein
18.2
15.9
12.4
8.7
18.9
7.9
21.3
30.8
15.0
21.5
21.8
20.9
18.3
Klein_Prob
22.6
18.2
16.8
10.3
25.2
11.5
25.5
36.0
14.2
24.1
22.9
25.6
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
32.8
33.8
34.0
33.0
46.1
49.8
44.1
63.9
32.7
45.5
49.9
39.7
42.0
Uncal_Temp
11.1
20.4
23.6
11.5
22.5
25.6
26.8
48.0
22.8
23.8
27.7
21.6
23.8
ECMM
00
Analogs
21.4
5.3
7.5
5.3
19.4
6.2
25.6
41.1
22.9
13.3
17.0
16.6
16.9
Klein
24.9
16.9
14.8
9.2
25.9
10.1
27.6
33.1
15.6
21.4
15.3
23.1
20.2
Klein_Prob
28.2
17.7
16.9
12.1
29.9
14.8
31.2
36.0
16.0
26.3
14.8
26.6
22.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
43.4
40.6
35.9
32.9
56.3
43.9
40.0
58.0
38.8
48.0
47.6
48.1
44.4
Uncal_Temp
28.0
31.2
30.8
24.1
50.3
40.9
38.5
49.4
25.9
35.4
30.4
29.2
34.2
ECMM
12
Analogs
22.7
6.9
8.5
4.5
23.4
7.6
24.8
43.3
22.7
15.8
16.4
14.9
17.6
Klein
25.1
18.2
13.6
10.1
23.5
10.2
24.6
29.1
14.8
20.1
13.5
21.8
19.1
Klein_Prob
28.0
19.4
16.7
12.1
27.3
14.6
28.7
32.0
14.3
23.9
14.8
26.8
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
43.7
42.0
38.0
36.1
56.6
49.2
42.8
63.7
42.9
49.9
51.8
52.8
47.4
Uncal_Temp
27.6
29.7
29.0
20.8
48.6
39.9
36.2
46.5
27.0
32.8
30.1
28.5
32.8
CANM
00
Analogs
17.2
6.0
14.9
5.3
10.9
7.3
25.4
39.9
13.8
5.8
19.7
15.4
15.4
Klein
20.3
17.5
18.3
3.6
13.3
14.6
20.2
32.0
14.4
22.3
29.6
22.1
19.4
Klein_Prob
24.0
18.7
21.4
4.8
20.3
17.9
24.1
36.1
14.6
28.6
28.7
24.6
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
14.1
6.9
9.5
4.8
12.9
7.6
21.6
38.4
10.7
8.1
23.9
15.2
14.6
Klein
17.8
17.8
12.3
3.3
10.1
12.9
18.7
24.5
11.8
18.1
26.9
17.1
16.5
Klein_Prob
23.3
18.7
14.0
3.5
12.9
16.7
21.5
29.2
12.1
23.0
26.4
18.5
18.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
5.7
4.0
5.3
-0.8
18.6
8.7
23.2
42.6
18.4
4.5
14.6
13.3
13.3
Klein
18.7
10.4
18.8
6.0
22.8
12.5
21.4
33.9
8.7
16.1
15.5
16.4
17.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
7.8
7.2
7.0
0.3
19.1
8.8
22.5
39.0
22.5
6.4
16.6
16.6
14.6
Klein
19.2
15.8
15.8
9.2
23.5
15.2
19.6
31.5
14.2
20.4
18.2
17.1
18.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
15.2
6.5
5.7
-3.4
17.7
2.2
21.9
40.5
14.6
4.8
19.2
13.5
13.4
Klein
22.4
16.2
16.1
9.0
18.9
6.2
21.3
26.3
6.4
18.1
19.5
12.6
16.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
14.9
4.0
2.7
1.7
16.7
6.0
26.2
36.9
11.5
2.4
19.4
17.6
13.7
Klein
17.8
18.0
14.5
10.1
22.3
12.3
19.9
23.7
7.0
21.0
21.2
16.1
17.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
16.8
5.4
6.4
8.8
19.4
6.5
26.9
38.4
18.1
15.7
23.0
10.6
16.3
Klein
23.8
14.1
12.8
14.2
26.6
9.0
28.7
29.0
11.4
18.4
18.6
21.6
19.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
19.6
6.0
3.8
5.7
16.7
6.1
29.1
41.3
20.1
13.8
27.6
11.6
16.6
Klein
23.3
15.2
9.9
11.2
26.1
9.1
26.0
25.2
11.6
17.5
13.5
18.5
17.5
NNet