D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Official
xx
All
63.3
49.8
43.5
41.5
33.6
37.8
29.4
54.4
38.1
48.5
62.2
37.8
45.2
ExpAuto
xx
All
61.2
52.4
40.8
41.6
38.2
37.9
31.2
56.7
44.0
48.3
65.4
38.8
46.4
Auto
xx
All
61.6
51.5
37.9
 
 
40.6
31.1
56.3
42.7
44.9
63.2
41.7
47.9
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-14.8
-2.9
1.5
-0.2
 
6.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
-10.6
Klein
47.6
8.2
20.0
9.8
 
17.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
37.2
NNet
40.4
23.1
15.0
2.0
 
3.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
30.4
GFSM
00
Analogs
33.1
9.7
21.3
19.5
4.8
9.1
4.2
19.2
6.9
22.3
42.8
17.2
17.6
Klein
44.9
33.2
17.2
18.2
15.1
14.3
10.8
18.8
8.7
23.1
32.1
13.7
21.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
57.4
48.4
35.2
27.8
32.6
27.1
23.2
46.5
41.7
41.6
56.4
24.6
39.4
GFSM
06
Analogs
34.9
15.8
24.6
18.2
6.5
6.0
7.6
16.9
9.6
25.5
43.8
14.8
19.0
Klein
45.8
31.5
19.8
19.0
17.4
12.4
9.7
20.5
9.0
23.5
30.2
15.8
21.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
57.0
48.1
33.9
23.2
33.2
25.6
22.4
45.4
44.2
41.5
56.5
22.9
38.7
GFSM
12
Analogs
29.4
15.1
22.3
16.7
6.8
7.1
5.2
16.0
6.8
21.3
44.9
12.3
17.4
Klein
40.7
28.4
16.2
16.1
17.8
7.3
7.1
13.9
8.0
20.0
23.7
10.7
17.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
59.7
50.5
36.2
31.1
32.9
21.1
22.9
45.5
47.0
42.9
56.7
26.2
40.7
GFSM
18
Analogs
32.1
9.7
23.3
12.8
6.6
6.0
10.1
16.3
6.4
19.9
44.3
11.1
16.9
Klein
46.1
27.3
16.1
16.1
18.1
10.9
10.1
16.4
5.4
17.8
23.8
10.1
18.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
59.3
47.8
34.0
24.2
32.9
38.7
25.0
43.4
44.5
42.3
56.7
21.8
39.5
GFSM
xx
Analogs
33.6
11.0
23.8
16.8
5.0
6.0
3.8
19.1
10.9
18.4
46.1
15.8
17.7
Klein
46.0
32.9
17.2
18.2
15.9
12.4
8.7
18.9
7.9
21.3
30.8
15.0
20.6
Klein_Prob
48.4
36.4
20.4
22.6
18.2
16.8
10.3
25.2
11.5
25.5
36.0
14.2
24.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
56.9
42.4
38.7
32.8
33.8
34.0
33.0
46.1
49.8
44.1
63.9
32.7
42.4
Uncal_Temp
53.9
22.8
6.9
11.1
20.4
23.6
11.5
22.5
25.6
26.8
48.0
22.8
24.8
ECMM
00
Analogs
29.7
10.5
12.3
21.4
5.3
7.5
5.3
19.4
6.2
25.6
41.1
22.9
17.4
Klein
40.0
35.0
20.3
24.9
16.9
14.8
9.2
25.9
10.1
27.6
33.1
15.6
22.9
Klein_Prob
42.6
39.5
21.0
28.2
17.7
16.9
12.1
29.9
14.8
31.2
36.0
16.0
25.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
59.6
50.1
40.5
43.4
40.6
35.9
32.9
56.3
43.9
40.0
58.0
38.8
45.0
Uncal_Temp
49.8
27.8
22.4
28.0
31.2
30.8
24.1
50.3
40.9
38.5
49.4
25.9
34.8
ECMM
12
Analogs
32.6
15.2
18.4
22.7
6.9
8.5
4.5
23.4
7.6
24.8
43.3
22.7
19.3
Klein
38.5
35.6
18.6
25.1
18.2
13.6
10.1
23.5
10.2
24.6
29.1
14.8
22.0
Klein_Prob
41.5
40.0
19.4
28.0
19.4
16.7
12.1
27.3
14.6
28.7
32.0
14.3
24.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
60.7
53.5
44.1
43.7
42.0
38.0
36.1
56.6
49.2
42.8
63.7
42.9
47.7
Uncal_Temp
49.4
25.8
18.1
27.6
29.7
29.0
20.8
48.6
39.9
36.2
46.5
27.0
33.2
CANM
00
Analogs
30.8
9.1
18.7
17.2
6.0
14.9
5.3
10.9
7.3
25.4
39.9
13.8
16.7
Klein
39.2
38.3
25.7
20.3
17.5
18.3
3.6
13.3
14.6
20.2
32.0
14.4
21.7
Klein_Prob
42.8
41.4
28.9
24.0
18.7
21.4
4.8
20.3
17.9
24.1
36.1
14.6
24.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
21.6
10.1
17.3
14.1
6.9
9.5
4.8
12.9
7.6
21.6
38.4
10.7
14.8
Klein
32.3
39.2
21.2
17.8
17.8
12.3
3.3
10.1
12.9
18.7
24.5
11.8
18.8
Klein_Prob
36.2
41.6
23.9
23.3
18.7
14.0
3.5
12.9
16.7
21.5
29.2
12.1
21.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
35.2
10.7
16.8
5.7
4.0
5.3
-0.8
18.6
8.7
23.2
42.6
18.4
15.8
Klein
42.0
31.5
12.7
18.7
10.4
18.8
6.0
22.8
12.5
21.4
33.9
8.7
20.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
33.0
13.7
16.0
7.8
7.2
7.0
0.3
19.1
8.8
22.5
39.0
22.5
16.4
Klein
40.7
33.9
19.1
19.2
15.8
15.8
9.2
23.5
15.2
19.6
31.5
14.2
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
30.1
11.8
19.5
15.2
6.5
5.7
-3.4
17.7
2.2
21.9
40.5
14.6
15.3
Klein
38.3
29.5
16.4
22.4
16.2
16.1
9.0
18.9
6.2
21.3
26.3
6.4
19.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
30.9
8.8
23.7
14.9
4.0
2.7
1.7
16.7
6.0
26.2
36.9
11.5
15.5
Klein
39.1
30.2
16.8
17.8
18.0
14.5
10.1
22.3
12.3
19.9
23.7
7.0
19.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
29.2
10.5
15.2
16.8
5.4
6.4
8.8
19.4
6.5
26.9
38.4
18.1
16.9
Klein
36.3
28.7
16.7
23.8
14.1
12.8
14.2
26.6
9.0
28.7
29.0
11.4
21.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
30.3
14.9
16.6
19.6
6.0
3.8
5.7
16.7
6.1
29.1
41.3
20.1
17.7
Klein
36.2
31.3
17.2
23.3
15.2
9.9
11.2
26.1
9.1
26.0
25.2
11.6
20.2
NNet