D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Official
xx
All
25.2
39.7
26.0
46.0
23.9
27.1
39.5
29.1
43.1
37.5
35.1
29.9
33.4
CDC
xx
All
25.3
31.4
25.3
48.6
31.7
21.3
21.2
28.6
42.5
26.6
29.3
26.0
29.8
Auto
xx
All
18.3
31.1
14.6
16.7
7.0
16.0
31.4
30.1
32.5
28.6
6.5
13.2
22.4
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
13.6
31.1
4.5
-1.6
-1.6
2.1
-2.7
-6.7
-3.8
2.4
-2.4
-5.0
2.6
Klein
15.3
26.4
9.3
16.8
0.9
6.2
25.0
25.4
21.9
27.3
29.7
31.8
20.1
NNet
5.2
28.2
2.7
13.8
7.1
1.4
13.6
10.4
33.9
29.8
20.4
10.2
15.3
GFSM
00
Analogs
8.9
27.1
4.4
-8.7
3.5
21.4
20.8
11.9
13.5
13.7
21.4
23.3
13.8
Klein
13.6
16.3
8.4
4.9
-0.1
8.0
21.7
20.3
19.4
14.0
26.7
25.9
15.2
NNet
8.3
25.8
3.4
8.0
-0.6
1.9
13.0
9.4
30.9
26.1
19.9
13.8
13.8
NAEFS
24.4
30.6
22.4
51.4
34.5
23.7
39.8
28.5
33.1
36.1
37.3
34.2
32.6
GFSM
06
Analogs
7.7
24.4
4.1
-9.6
3.1
20.8
20.1
15.7
12.6
12.5
20.1
19.8
12.9
Klein
12.6
18.3
13.7
7.4
0.7
7.7
22.8
21.9
19.0
14.9
28.3
26.9
16.3
NNet
9.8
23.0
3.6
11.2
3.8
0.3
12.0
10.2
31.2
26.9
20.8
13.2
14.1
NAEFS
21.1
27.8
22.7
45.1
31.6
20.6
39.6
32.0
35.9
30.1
33.0
33.4
31.0
GFSM
12
Analogs
1.7
22.6
5.0
-7.1
2.1
18.1
20.8
15.8
7.2
8.6
18.4
19.4
11.1
Klein
3.8
12.8
6.2
6.8
-1.3
8.4
20.7
17.9
10.5
10.8
21.9
24.1
12.0
NNet
4.7
20.7
6.4
6.7
4.9
0.0
15.3
15.0
28.6
26.4
18.1
15.6
13.8
NAEFS
23.4
31.2
24.2
51.4
38.0
25.2
39.5
31.6
34.0
37.7
37.3
35.3
33.7
GFSM
18
Analogs
6.5
25.5
8.3
-8.3
2.9
14.1
20.1
17.6
10.3
5.8
19.2
18.2
11.8
Klein
6.2
16.5
8.9
5.4
0.4
8.0
24.1
20.7
12.3
7.3
21.1
24.6
13.2
NNet
7.6
26.8
7.5
4.8
6.7
0.7
16.8
12.4
28.1
25.1
17.9
14.2
14.3
NAEFS
22.4
33.5
25.8
46.9
34.7
21.8
44.6
32.8
35.8
32.0
33.3
35.0
32.8
GFSM
xx
Analogs
7.9
27.9
3.1
-5.9
2.1
22.4
20.7
14.3
12.1
11.3
21.4
21.6
13.5
Klein
10.6
18.7
9.4
5.7
-0.5
8.8
21.7
20.8
17.2
13.6
28.1
25.8
15.2
Klein_Prob
16.8
22.1
11.8
12.1
0.7
5.6
25.7
26.1
22.7
15.1
30.8
29.0
18.4
NNet
7.4
25.9
3.5
7.6
1.7
1.8
13.5
7.9
32.5
28.9
21.5
14.3
14.3
NNet_Prob
13.5
23.1
6.1
7.8
-1.2
-1.9
11.9
9.3
27.8
26.8
19.0
11.6
13.1
Cal_Temp
26.7
41.9
34.6
57.9
37.5
27.5
44.4
30.9
44.8
39.1
40.0
33.1
38.0
Uncal_Temp
22.9
20.2
16.6
25.1
11.0
12.4
33.3
34.2
38.9
34.1
35.9
30.8
26.4
ECMM
00
Analogs
15.4
33.8
8.4
2.1
4.0
21.3
25.3
19.5
19.2
23.5
23.2
22.5
18.6
Klein
21.0
30.7
9.2
8.4
0.2
11.4
24.7
25.2
25.5
31.5
32.6
33.3
21.4
Klein_Prob
23.7
35.6
12.6
15.0
4.9
12.7
29.3
28.4
26.9
32.7
35.0
35.3
24.6
NNet
13.1
29.8
0.8
16.4
7.9
3.2
14.3
22.3
39.2
36.5
23.4
13.9
18.4
NNet_Prob
12.7
29.7
1.1
17.2
4.0
8.1
10.5
18.6
37.7
35.1
24.8
12.6
17.7
ECMM
12
Analogs
16.1
33.2
11.2
3.4
5.0
17.0
23.0
14.7
20.2
23.1
24.0
24.3
18.3
Klein
19.2
28.7
10.8
6.5
1.1
11.4
24.9
27.2
22.8
29.1
30.9
34.6
20.9
Klein_Prob
20.9
32.6
12.6
13.2
5.9
11.4
28.3
28.7
24.7
29.1
30.2
35.5
23.0
NNet
10.1
31.6
1.6
13.1
5.8
5.6
16.6
23.8
35.8
34.5
21.0
12.7
17.8
NNet_Prob
11.1
28.9
3.5
13.4
2.4
8.2
13.3
21.1
34.4
33.8
22.7
11.5
17.2
CANM
00
Analogs
7.5
28.4
9.6
1.4
1.5
20.9
21.1
18.1
16.7
23.5
17.6
18.8
15.6
Klein
21.4
23.3
11.7
16.9
1.0
10.9
23.6
25.5
24.4
31.8
30.3
26.3
20.8
Klein_Prob
19.8
26.6
12.2
22.2
5.4
12.7
26.6
20.9
29.1
33.0
32.6
28.1
22.7
NNet
7.7
26.1
11.8
24.9
7.5
9.6
10.9
18.6
31.7
31.1
19.1
12.6
17.8
NNet_Prob
11.9
24.1
6.2
18.8
3.2
6.7
10.2
8.0
31.2
30.4
19.9
12.3
15.7
CANM
12
Analogs
7.0
24.9
15.1
2.6
4.1
23.8
15.3
13.5
20.6
14.2
18.3
14.5
14.6
Klein
16.4
21.2
9.9
16.2
-0.5
15.7
24.4
27.7
22.2
25.8
26.3
20.8
19.1
Klein_Prob
17.1
22.3
10.5
22.7
3.7
16.9
27.4
23.2
24.6
25.8
27.4
21.3
20.5
NNet
9.4
28.7
8.1
24.1
2.8
7.1
13.2
18.2
31.6
26.7
15.1
15.4
17.1
NNet_Prob
11.0
27.8
4.8
15.9
2.1
10.8
11.2
8.2
32.0
27.0
17.7
13.7
15.6
GFS
00
Analogs
7.2
27.0
9.1
-4.5
-0.3
19.0
12.2
11.5
10.6
13.0
18.1
17.2
12.1
Klein
14.0
21.7
11.5
11.7
0.9
8.9
13.7
14.6
17.1
18.9
25.3
21.1
15.2
NNet
3.3
22.4
5.7
7.6
-6.0
-1.6
6.3
4.0
22.8
25.6
15.0
10.2
10.0
GFS
06
Analogs
11.3
20.2
8.8
-6.6
2.4
16.4
21.4
10.5
9.3
20.3
18.3
22.0
12.9
Klein
13.9
15.8
12.3
4.7
1.6
10.5
20.8
17.6
16.7
15.5
28.6
20.0
14.9
NNet
9.3
14.8
6.5
7.4
0.1
4.1
9.3
5.6
29.2
29.1
21.9
9.1
12.4
GFS
12
Analogs
9.6
23.7
5.5
-7.8
5.1
13.1
12.9
11.9
6.7
17.5
20.1
19.8
11.6
Klein
7.5
20.0
7.8
9.3
5.1
8.9
17.4
9.2
14.9
16.8
26.4
21.4
13.8
NNet
3.8
22.0
-0.6
6.5
3.3
-3.6
12.0
5.2
20.9
24.9
13.9
9.7
10.2
GFS
18
Analogs
8.8
19.8
2.5
-1.0
6.4
11.1
14.2
15.1
3.9
13.6
17.4
21.0
11.3
Klein
9.8
20.2
9.9
9.0
5.8
5.3
17.6
18.3
8.8
12.3
24.3
21.6
13.8
NNet
5.7
25.4
4.9
13.7
3.6
2.7
11.4
14.0
21.7
24.0
16.6
13.2
13.3
ECM
00
Analogs
13.2
24.0
8.4
-0.8
2.8
14.6
15.9
18.6
23.5
22.4
23.6
22.0
15.9
Klein
16.6
28.5
10.6
13.1
5.0
11.0
20.5
20.7
21.3
32.2
30.8
30.0
20.1
NNet
6.0
16.1
-1.7
13.8
8.8
1.9
8.6
13.3
26.4
33.7
25.1
3.7
12.7
ECM
12
Analogs
8.9
28.1
4.8
1.8
2.6
14.0
22.4
20.7
18.4
16.2
22.8
21.7
15.5
Klein
18.0
26.7
9.9
15.3
4.9
9.2
25.7
21.5
20.6
25.4
26.7
24.5
19.4
NNet
5.3
22.9
6.6
10.4
-2.1
4.1
16.4
17.6
27.0
32.7
17.7
7.5
14.0