D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Aug 16
Sep 16
Oct 16
Nov 16
Dec 16
Jan 17
Feb 17
Mar 17
Apr 17
May 17
Jun 17
Jul 17
Official
xx
All
42.8
42.2
56.6
62.8
41.6
61.9
55.1
34.6
40.4
28.0
30.9
36.4
44.7
ExpAuto
xx
All
43.9
48.9
57.5
59.3
42.2
55.7
56.0
37.8
42.2
32.2
36.1
44.5
46.9
Auto
xx
All
46.5
49.7
59.1
61.7
38.0
58.6
58.7
37.8
42.5
32.1
36.1
37.2
46.8
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
4.0
10.4
20.2
15.7
26.0
28.5
5.7
23.0
19.8
11.8
15.1
9.5
16.1
Klein
12.8
23.8
21.1
18.3
23.5
23.6
6.8
25.3
26.3
22.4
17.6
20.4
20.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
0.5
8.0
22.9
14.1
25.1
27.6
9.5
21.0
22.6
13.9
18.5
9.6
16.3
Klein
13.9
21.6
21.6
21.8
25.9
22.6
10.1
23.0
28.0
24.1
19.3
18.6
21.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
-0.6
7.8
21.5
12.9
25.0
18.7
5.5
24.9
19.1
15.7
18.7
9.6
15.1
Klein
9.4
17.6
13.7
12.8
20.2
15.9
6.5
20.2
24.2
23.8
14.5
19.2
16.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
5.0
6.6
18.4
12.9
19.7
14.9
1.8
21.1
17.5
15.5
19.6
10.0
13.8
Klein
10.8
17.2
14.9
13.4
21.1
16.1
6.0
17.7
23.9
24.3
16.7
19.7
17.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
5.3
10.1
22.8
15.2
26.8
26.2
6.3
26.8
22.2
11.2
17.6
8.9
16.7
Klein
13.2
19.9
19.6
18.6
25.7
24.3
6.6
22.3
26.5
22.4
17.5
19.2
19.8
Klein_Prob
20.0
28.0
29.1
24.1
27.6
24.5
13.6
27.9
29.7
24.6
21.7
23.0
24.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
42.0
43.3
56.7
59.7
36.8
50.6
48.3
39.4
42.6
33.9
32.7
40.3
44.0
Uncal_Temp
23.0
33.8
39.2
39.3
26.0
44.9
23.7
17.8
17.7
22.9
22.2
27.7
28.4
ECMM
00
Analogs
7.1
14.2
32.0
26.9
25.2
32.7
4.7
25.8
20.0
15.8
16.1
13.8
19.6
Klein
8.6
19.3
28.8
27.6
26.6
23.6
15.9
25.6
32.3
23.2
20.6
16.2
22.6
Klein_Prob
12.5
26.0
35.6
30.2
28.7
24.1
20.5
28.4
34.8
27.8
23.3
18.4
26.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
44.6
46.9
59.9
59.9
29.0
56.6
54.0
42.0
44.1
35.0
35.1
39.9
45.7
Uncal_Temp
32.8
41.2
49.8
49.1
24.9
47.1
34.0
26.0
21.1
22.0
19.1
21.9
32.6
ECMM
12
Analogs
8.2
12.6
31.9
29.6
24.4
26.9
4.4
31.1
19.8
17.6
18.5
10.7
19.7
Klein
7.1
19.9
26.9
24.1
23.9
19.7
17.5
24.3
29.7
28.3
22.6
16.3
21.9
Klein_Prob
10.5
26.4
33.5
27.3
25.4
20.1
22.3
27.6
33.1
30.3
25.2
19.4
25.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
47.0
49.5
59.9
62.1
36.7
62.5
55.5
44.6
47.2
41.3
37.5
42.0
48.8
Uncal_Temp
27.6
39.0
45.7
44.3
27.9
48.9
33.0
28.1
18.9
21.2
14.9
14.2
30.5
CANM
00
Analogs
-0.0
17.3
17.6
19.3
21.6
27.9
13.4
22.1
19.8
9.3
21.3
8.4
16.6
Klein
1.3
19.0
18.6
25.1
24.1
25.3
17.2
24.5
25.6
18.2
18.7
14.0
19.5
Klein_Prob
4.4
24.7
25.3
27.6
26.4
26.5
22.6
26.6
28.6
21.7
21.7
16.5
23.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
0.8
10.6
21.4
7.7
16.9
26.1
16.2
19.6
13.8
12.3
19.6
10.2
14.8
Klein
-0.2
11.1
15.9
18.2
19.0
18.6
18.0
21.6
26.9
20.1
17.0
15.2
16.8
Klein_Prob
1.5
16.7
22.3
20.6
19.3
18.8
22.4
24.1
29.8
24.8
18.6
17.1
19.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
7.7
12.2
22.7
27.6
21.6
33.1
5.4
20.4
19.4
11.9
16.8
8.2
17.4
Klein
14.0
25.9
21.0
23.4
22.9
24.2
15.3
20.4
25.8
21.0
14.8
15.7
20.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
2.2
9.5
16.9
24.1
24.0
31.1
6.5
22.6
15.9
11.8
20.2
8.8
16.2
Klein
13.8
21.5
18.8
24.2
24.1
22.8
18.0
23.4
24.7
23.5
17.9
15.5
20.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
4.5
8.9
11.0
23.6
20.8
25.5
3.7
22.8
17.1
15.9
16.2
6.8
14.8
Klein
11.9
22.8
16.9
22.1
22.6
20.6
18.1
19.9
24.4
23.1
16.6
16.7
20.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
7.2
10.6
16.7
22.9
18.9
27.6
8.8
14.0
20.9
19.0
15.9
7.6
16.0
Klein
15.1
24.7
20.1
17.6
21.6
19.0
18.0
17.3
26.8
26.4
14.1
16.2
20.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
9.4
10.0
17.3
17.9
13.9
29.6
7.9
28.4
18.5
16.9
17.0
12.6
16.8
Klein
12.1
20.9
22.0
24.5
21.5
21.1
19.4
24.4
29.0
23.5
22.7
13.6
21.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
8.6
8.3
18.3
17.4
14.0
24.0
-0.9
25.3
8.5
20.2
15.7
11.3
14.5
Klein
7.1
20.2
20.2
21.0
17.6
17.3
17.9
25.7
23.9
29.7
20.3
16.0
20.1
NNet