D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Official
xx
All
60.9
44.5
27.5
48.5
19.9
34.4
28.8
44.6
31.0
41.5
36.3
49.5
39.2
ExpAuto
xx
All
61.0
46.1
27.2
46.2
23.2
33.6
34.4
49.1
38.8
34.9
42.4
50.2
40.6
Auto
xx
All
52.7
51.5
26.8
32.6
14.1
30.4
9.2
37.3
21.9
35.9
42.4
50.5
33.8
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-8.5
0.8
1.2
-3.8
2.2
-5.2
-1.3
-5.5
21.0
12.1
-2.3
0.6
1.0
Klein
34.3
34.8
18.1
27.0
17.4
28.5
7.3
32.9
13.3
37.3
14.6
20.8
23.8
NNet
27.6
26.2
13.3
15.7
13.1
-3.5
-2.8
18.8
20.8
29.9
15.6
27.6
16.8
GFSM
00
Analogs
20.7
27.5
6.2
15.5
9.3
13.7
5.8
23.9
16.6
29.7
15.5
28.6
17.7
Klein
31.4
25.5
13.3
14.8
13.6
20.6
6.4
29.4
13.1
31.4
12.3
20.4
19.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
56.0
37.0
16.2
33.9
15.2
19.7
19.7
37.7
38.7
28.4
38.2
44.1
32.1
GFSM
06
Analogs
17.2
30.0
7.0
11.4
10.0
14.4
8.4
24.7
17.4
30.1
14.3
29.5
17.8
Klein
30.2
26.6
13.2
16.0
15.9
21.2
6.3
31.9
11.3
30.9
12.0
21.2
19.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
30.7
-8.3
35.1
13.5
24.9
20.8
37.9
39.6
29.1
37.7
46.0
30.9
GFSM
12
Analogs
14.9
23.9
1.9
12.0
13.1
15.2
7.1
25.6
24.8
31.8
13.6
22.4
17.1
Klein
23.6
19.4
9.6
11.6
13.4
20.1
6.0
25.6
14.6
27.9
6.3
12.6
15.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
56.8
36.1
20.4
35.6
16.5
21.3
21.2
39.4
41.5
32.2
40.0
47.6
33.9
GFSM
18
Analogs
12.6
21.9
4.4
13.8
10.6
14.4
8.1
24.0
24.7
31.4
12.5
23.6
16.6
Klein
20.2
22.5
9.4
13.8
14.2
21.1
6.2
27.2
15.0
30.0
8.9
16.7
16.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
54.6
34.9
17.7
34.6
16.0
23.5
21.7
38.6
42.8
33.0
39.3
49.0
33.6
GFSM
xx
Analogs
18.4
26.6
7.0
13.1
10.8
15.6
5.7
22.6
17.2
28.9
16.6
28.0
17.6
Klein
31.0
26.6
12.8
15.5
14.9
21.6
6.6
30.6
13.1
30.9
12.5
21.1
19.9
Klein_Prob
32.4
27.7
14.4
20.5
16.4
22.9
6.7
34.1
14.3
30.8
13.6
21.6
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
54.9
40.9
29.4
45.8
29.2
32.3
29.9
44.3
43.1
39.8
38.2
47.7
39.8
Uncal_Temp
46.5
29.0
9.0
11.4
2.9
27.4
13.8
24.0
20.8
33.4
32.5
35.1
24.0
ECMM
00
Analogs
20.9
34.7
13.0
13.2
7.7
19.4
9.5
23.2
18.1
29.8
18.4
29.0
19.7
Klein
32.1
33.0
21.2
20.5
22.2
27.8
8.4
27.7
16.0
35.8
19.1
17.6
23.4
Klein_Prob
33.9
33.9
21.5
24.8
21.6
28.9
9.1
32.8
16.0
35.3
19.7
19.4
24.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
51.0
43.8
32.7
50.2
27.5
35.1
36.1
46.5
38.4
41.7
40.4
43.9
40.7
Uncal_Temp
46.0
30.7
16.4
20.7
18.2
30.4
32.5
39.4
27.3
34.9
32.8
31.5
30.2
ECMM
12
Analogs
19.6
29.6
15.0
14.9
7.3
14.8
7.8
23.7
24.3
29.6
18.4
26.2
19.2
Klein
31.5
29.3
21.5
20.7
21.3
26.5
6.7
28.3
18.8
34.2
18.5
14.6
22.6
Klein_Prob
32.8
29.7
20.8
25.0
21.1
30.3
6.8
32.1
20.8
33.6
19.6
16.2
23.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
52.0
43.9
39.8
53.5
26.5
37.8
38.2
47.9
42.9
45.7
42.4
47.2
43.2
Uncal_Temp
45.9
30.3
19.0
19.7
13.3
34.2
25.9
35.2
25.8
36.6
29.7
30.2
28.8
CANM
00
Analogs
15.6
28.2
7.1
14.9
13.0
10.9
9.6
25.0
18.4
24.5
11.4
26.7
17.0
Klein
24.8
27.2
13.7
19.2
17.8
17.5
7.8
21.1
21.7
30.7
17.4
23.9
20.3
Klein_Prob
27.0
25.9
12.8
22.2
18.8
19.5
7.0
24.9
22.7
32.7
18.0
24.9
21.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
10.0
22.4
6.1
9.3
13.2
12.9
5.4
22.6
15.6
27.5
9.6
21.1
14.7
Klein
17.3
20.8
11.4
15.3
18.1
18.8
5.7
19.7
18.9
29.5
16.7
18.8
17.6
Klein_Prob
19.2
21.9
14.2
17.6
19.2
22.5
4.2
21.2
19.4
29.8
16.6
20.2
18.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
20.0
32.0
7.6
11.2
7.3
8.4
6.5
19.5
16.1
28.7
18.4
27.6
17.2
Klein
29.2
22.8
10.2
20.1
12.0
18.1
5.8
26.4
12.0
30.9
9.6
17.9
18.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
21.3
29.9
3.9
10.4
11.7
14.9
5.8
16.5
23.2
26.0
11.8
31.2
17.4
Klein
30.9
26.8
11.5
22.8
13.0
20.2
5.3
27.9
16.4
31.1
9.8
21.0
19.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
20.2
26.6
5.9
9.0
7.6
11.8
5.8
24.2
22.6
28.6
13.0
28.6
16.9
Klein
28.9
25.8
12.7
16.7
10.2
16.3
7.3
30.7
17.4
30.9
8.3
15.3
18.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
18.1
28.9
8.7
13.8
10.8
13.3
4.1
20.8
18.2
33.0
16.7
28.6
17.9
Klein
27.7
27.9
13.8
22.1
12.1
17.3
8.5
26.3
16.5
35.8
11.6
22.7
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
22.4
31.3
7.8
11.1
4.4
15.8
5.9
15.4
17.8
29.9
25.2
27.4
17.8
Klein
29.4
27.1
24.1
21.0
14.4
27.2
9.7
24.9
19.5
33.4
20.9
18.5
22.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
21.3
30.9
12.4
15.7
7.3
13.9
8.5
20.4
21.4
30.4
21.4
21.9
18.7
Klein
27.6
24.1
19.8
24.9
14.2
23.9
8.6
31.1
23.7
30.5
17.9
14.6
21.8
NNet