D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Official
xx
All
43.5
41.5
33.6
37.8
29.4
54.4
38.1
48.5
62.2
37.8
48.1
49.9
43.8
ExpAuto
xx
All
40.8
41.6
38.2
37.9
31.2
56.7
44.0
48.3
65.4
38.8
52.5
43.5
44.7
Auto
xx
All
37.9
 
 
40.6
31.1
56.3
42.7
44.9
63.2
41.7
51.7
47.8
46.1
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
1.5
-0.2
 
6.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.7
Klein
20.0
9.8
 
17.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
17.5
NNet
15.0
2.0
 
3.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10.8
GFSM
00
Analogs
21.3
19.5
4.8
9.1
4.2
19.2
6.9
22.3
42.8
17.2
7.8
16.8
16.3
Klein
17.2
18.2
15.1
14.3
10.8
18.8
8.7
23.1
32.1
13.7
21.7
22.3
18.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
35.2
27.8
32.6
27.1
23.2
46.5
41.7
41.6
56.4
24.6
50.8
 
36.4
GFSM
06
Analogs
24.6
18.2
6.5
6.0
7.6
16.9
9.6
25.5
43.8
14.8
5.3
19.1
17.0
Klein
19.8
19.0
17.4
12.4
9.7
20.5
9.0
23.5
30.2
15.8
22.9
21.3
18.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
33.9
23.2
33.2
25.6
22.4
45.4
44.2
41.5
56.5
22.9
50.0
 
35.6
GFSM
12
Analogs
22.3
16.7
6.8
7.1
5.2
16.0
6.8
21.3
44.9
12.3
0.8
21.8
15.7
Klein
16.2
16.1
17.8
7.3
7.1
13.9
8.0
20.0
23.7
10.7
15.5
20.4
15.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
36.2
31.1
32.9
21.1
22.9
45.5
47.0
42.9
56.7
26.2
57.8
 
37.6
GFSM
18
Analogs
23.3
12.8
6.6
6.0
10.1
16.3
6.4
19.9
44.3
11.1
3.2
22.4
15.6
Klein
16.1
16.1
18.1
10.9
10.1
16.4
5.4
17.8
23.8
10.1
16.6
17.4
15.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
34.0
24.2
32.9
38.7
25.0
43.4
44.5
42.3
56.7
21.8
55.2
 
36.4
GFSM
xx
Analogs
23.8
16.8
5.0
6.0
3.8
19.1
10.9
18.4
46.1
15.8
5.9
18.4
16.2
Klein
17.2
18.2
15.9
12.4
8.7
18.9
7.9
21.3
30.8
15.0
21.5
21.8
17.9
Klein_Prob
20.4
22.6
18.2
16.8
10.3
25.2
11.5
25.5
36.0
14.2
24.1
22.9
21.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
38.7
32.8
33.8
34.0
33.0
46.1
49.8
44.1
63.9
32.7
45.5
49.9
41.9
Uncal_Temp
6.9
11.1
20.4
23.6
11.5
22.5
25.6
26.8
48.0
22.8
23.8
27.7
22.6
ECMM
00
Analogs
12.3
21.4
5.3
7.5
5.3
19.4
6.2
25.6
41.1
22.9
13.3
17.0
16.6
Klein
20.3
24.9
16.9
14.8
9.2
25.9
10.1
27.6
33.1
15.6
21.4
15.3
19.9
Klein_Prob
21.0
28.2
17.7
16.9
12.1
29.9
14.8
31.2
36.0
16.0
26.3
14.8
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
40.5
43.4
40.6
35.9
32.9
56.3
43.9
40.0
58.0
38.8
48.0
47.6
43.7
Uncal_Temp
22.4
28.0
31.2
30.8
24.1
50.3
40.9
38.5
49.4
25.9
35.4
30.4
33.7
ECMM
12
Analogs
18.4
22.7
6.9
8.5
4.5
23.4
7.6
24.8
43.3
22.7
15.8
16.4
17.9
Klein
18.6
25.1
18.2
13.6
10.1
23.5
10.2
24.6
29.1
14.8
20.1
13.5
18.8
Klein_Prob
19.4
28.0
19.4
16.7
12.1
27.3
14.6
28.7
32.0
14.3
23.9
14.8
21.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
44.1
43.7
42.0
38.0
36.1
56.6
49.2
42.8
63.7
42.9
49.9
51.8
46.5
Uncal_Temp
18.1
27.6
29.7
29.0
20.8
48.6
39.9
36.2
46.5
27.0
32.8
30.1
31.9
CANM
00
Analogs
18.7
17.2
6.0
14.9
5.3
10.9
7.3
25.4
39.9
13.8
5.8
19.7
15.7
Klein
25.7
20.3
17.5
18.3
3.6
13.3
14.6
20.2
32.0
14.4
22.3
29.6
19.8
Klein_Prob
28.9
24.0
18.7
21.4
4.8
20.3
17.9
24.1
36.1
14.6
28.6
28.7
22.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
17.3
14.1
6.9
9.5
4.8
12.9
7.6
21.6
38.4
10.7
8.1
23.9
14.8
Klein
21.2
17.8
17.8
12.3
3.3
10.1
12.9
18.7
24.5
11.8
18.1
26.9
16.8
Klein_Prob
23.9
23.3
18.7
14.0
3.5
12.9
16.7
21.5
29.2
12.1
23.0
26.4
19.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
16.8
5.7
4.0
5.3
-0.8
18.6
8.7
23.2
42.6
18.4
4.5
14.6
13.6
Klein
12.7
18.7
10.4
18.8
6.0
22.8
12.5
21.4
33.9
8.7
16.1
15.5
16.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
16.0
7.8
7.2
7.0
0.3
19.1
8.8
22.5
39.0
22.5
6.4
16.6
14.6
Klein
19.1
19.2
15.8
15.8
9.2
23.5
15.2
19.6
31.5
14.2
20.4
18.2
18.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
19.5
15.2
6.5
5.7
-3.4
17.7
2.2
21.9
40.5
14.6
4.8
19.2
13.9
Klein
16.4
22.4
16.2
16.1
9.0
18.9
6.2
21.3
26.3
6.4
18.1
19.5
16.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
23.7
14.9
4.0
2.7
1.7
16.7
6.0
26.2
36.9
11.5
2.4
19.4
14.2
Klein
16.8
17.8
18.0
14.5
10.1
22.3
12.3
19.9
23.7
7.0
21.0
21.2
17.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
15.2
16.8
5.4
6.4
8.8
19.4
6.5
26.9
38.4
18.1
15.7
23.0
16.7
Klein
16.7
23.8
14.1
12.8
14.2
26.6
9.0
28.7
29.0
11.4
18.4
18.6
18.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
16.6
19.6
6.0
3.8
5.7
16.7
6.1
29.1
41.3
20.1
13.8
27.6
17.1
Klein
17.2
23.3
15.2
9.9
11.2
26.1
9.1
26.0
25.2
11.6
17.5
13.5
17.3
NNet