D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Official
xx
All
27.1
39.5
29.1
43.1
37.5
35.1
29.9
40.0
25.3
26.8
24.7
41.5
33.4
CDC
xx
All
21.3
21.2
28.6
42.5
26.6
29.3
26.0
28.5
14.5
11.7
20.7
14.2
24.5
Auto
xx
All
16.0
31.4
30.1
32.5
28.6
6.5
13.2
41.0
28.8
18.7
22.2
23.1
27.0
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
2.1
-2.7
-6.7
-3.8
2.4
-2.4
-5.0
-3.1
-1.4
6.3
0.9
-12.7
-2.4
Klein
6.2
25.0
25.4
21.9
27.3
29.7
31.8
30.2
27.4
23.4
28.1
19.3
25.1
NNet
1.4
13.6
10.4
33.9
29.8
20.4
10.2
17.1
15.1
6.7
7.1
12.1
15.2
GFSM
00
Analogs
21.4
20.8
11.9
13.5
13.7
21.4
23.3
12.7
9.5
11.6
11.7
11.5
15.6
Klein
8.0
21.7
20.3
19.4
14.0
26.7
25.9
21.0
16.6
18.6
18.0
8.2
18.4
NNet
1.9
13.0
9.4
30.9
26.1
19.9
13.8
16.1
7.4
 
 
 
16.4
NAEFS
23.7
39.8
28.5
33.1
36.1
37.3
34.2
34.8
26.4
25.5
21.5
41.3
31.8
GFSM
06
Analogs
20.8
20.1
15.7
12.6
12.5
20.1
19.8
12.0
10.6
11.0
11.6
10.0
15.0
Klein
7.7
22.8
21.9
19.0
14.9
28.3
26.9
20.3
16.9
21.5
19.4
11.5
19.5
NNet
0.3
12.0
10.2
31.2
26.9
20.8
13.2
17.0
5.3
 
 
 
16.4
NAEFS
20.6
39.6
32.0
35.9
30.1
33.0
33.4
30.9
23.4
25.1
24.3
35.0
30.4
GFSM
12
Analogs
18.1
20.8
15.8
7.2
8.6
18.4
19.4
12.7
9.6
10.0
9.6
9.2
13.4
Klein
8.4
20.7
17.9
10.5
10.8
21.9
24.1
13.2
15.5
14.8
18.3
10.3
15.6
NNet
0.0
15.3
15.0
28.6
26.4
18.1
15.6
12.5
4.2
 
 
 
16.3
NAEFS
25.2
39.5
31.6
34.0
37.7
37.3
35.3
36.0
29.4
27.4
23.2
43.9
33.4
GFSM
18
Analogs
14.1
20.1
17.6
10.3
5.8
19.2
18.2
7.2
11.8
15.6
7.1
7.7
13.1
Klein
8.0
24.1
20.7
12.3
7.3
21.1
24.6
12.7
14.9
16.8
16.0
9.8
15.9
NNet
0.7
16.8
12.4
28.1
25.1
17.9
14.2
13.6
2.2
 
 
 
15.9
NAEFS
21.8
44.6
32.8
35.8
32.0
33.3
35.0
30.4
24.9
26.8
26.5
41.7
31.9
GFSM
xx
Analogs
22.4
20.7
14.3
12.1
11.3
21.4
21.6
14.1
8.5
12.0
12.9
12.3
15.6
Klein
8.8
21.7
20.8
17.2
13.6
28.1
25.8
20.6
17.5
19.5
19.6
9.6
18.8
Klein_Prob
5.6
25.7
26.1
22.7
15.1
30.8
29.0
24.3
17.9
22.4
25.6
15.9
22.0
NNet
1.8
13.5
7.9
32.5
28.9
21.5
14.3
18.2
6.9
 
 
 
17.2
NNet_Prob
-1.9
11.9
9.3
27.8
26.8
19.0
11.6
13.2
5.4
 
 
 
14.7
Cal_Temp
27.5
44.4
30.9
44.8
39.1
40.0
33.1
39.5
27.2
32.3
28.2
43.2
35.8
Uncal_Temp
12.4
33.3
34.2
38.9
34.1
35.9
30.8
29.3
19.1
19.9
14.0
19.5
26.9
ECMM
00
Analogs
21.3
25.3
19.5
19.2
23.5
23.2
22.5
15.5
12.2
9.9
12.1
12.4
18.5
Klein
11.4
24.7
25.2
25.5
31.5
32.6
33.3
26.1
27.2
19.2
18.4
16.0
24.5
Klein_Prob
12.7
29.3
28.4
26.9
32.7
35.0
35.3
27.9
28.8
21.3
23.9
22.2
27.2
NNet
3.2
14.3
22.3
39.2
36.5
23.4
13.9
15.8
14.2
 
 
 
20.9
NNet_Prob
8.1
10.5
18.6
37.7
35.1
24.8
12.6
14.1
10.5
 
 
 
19.8
ECMM
12
Analogs
17.0
23.0
14.7
20.2
23.1
24.0
24.3
21.1
11.4
9.0
11.2
15.0
18.1
Klein
11.4
24.9
27.2
22.8
29.1
30.9
34.6
24.9
24.5
18.3
15.2
17.3
23.6
Klein_Prob
11.4
28.3
28.7
24.7
29.1
30.2
35.5
27.3
28.1
19.1
20.9
22.8
25.7
NNet
5.6
16.6
23.8
35.8
34.5
21.0
12.7
14.1
3.3
 
 
 
20.0
NNet_Prob
8.2
13.3
21.1
34.4
33.8
22.7
11.5
14.5
5.8
 
 
 
19.5
CANM
00
Analogs
20.9
21.1
18.1
16.7
23.5
17.6
18.8
12.0
13.3
9.6
12.4
11.3
16.5
Klein
10.9
23.6
25.5
24.4
31.8
30.3
26.3
16.8
20.6
20.3
17.9
10.7
21.8
Klein_Prob
12.7
26.6
20.9
29.1
33.0
32.6
28.1
19.2
33.4
 
 
 
26.2
NNet
9.6
10.9
18.6
31.7
31.1
19.1
12.6
14.7
9.9
 
 
 
18.5
NNet_Prob
6.7
10.2
8.0
31.2
30.4
19.9
12.3
12.5
7.5
 
 
 
16.5
CANM
12
Analogs
23.8
15.3
13.5
20.6
14.2
18.3
14.5
14.5
10.8
14.7
10.5
9.3
15.1
Klein
15.7
24.4
27.7
22.2
25.8
26.3
20.8
13.5
17.4
18.1
15.0
9.2
19.9
Klein_Prob
16.9
27.4
23.2
24.6
25.8
27.4
21.3
15.9
27.5
 
 
 
23.5
NNet
7.1
13.2
18.2
31.6
26.7
15.1
15.4
14.5
2.4
 
 
 
17.5
NNet_Prob
10.8
11.2
8.2
32.0
27.0
17.7
13.7
8.8
4.0
 
 
 
16.2
GFS
00
Analogs
19.0
12.2
11.5
10.6
13.0
18.1
17.2
14.4
11.0
9.0
16.6
9.8
13.9
Klein
8.9
13.7
14.6
17.1
18.9
25.3
21.1
22.6
20.1
18.2
21.5
13.5
18.2
NNet
-1.6
6.3
4.0
22.8
25.6
15.0
10.2
13.2
1.9
 
 
 
11.9
GFS
06
Analogs
16.4
21.4
10.5
9.3
20.3
18.3
22.0
14.8
7.8
15.7
9.7
12.1
14.8
Klein
10.5
20.8
17.6
16.7
15.5
28.6
20.0
17.8
18.4
19.1
23.9
15.0
18.7
NNet
4.1
9.3
5.6
29.2
29.1
21.9
9.1
13.7
6.6
 
 
 
15.0
GFS
12
Analogs
13.1
12.9
11.9
6.7
17.5
20.1
19.8
13.1
10.7
10.7
12.7
12.1
13.5
Klein
8.9
17.4
9.2
14.9
16.8
26.4
21.4
16.8
17.3
17.7
21.3
14.0
17.0
NNet
-3.6
12.0
5.2
20.9
24.9
13.9
9.7
9.5
2.7
 
 
 
11.5
GFS
18
Analogs
11.1
14.2
15.1
3.9
13.6
17.4
21.0
14.0
13.1
11.1
15.9
11.3
13.7
Klein
5.3
17.6
18.3
8.8
12.3
24.3
21.6
14.4
15.6
18.0
17.7
18.6
16.2
NNet
2.7
11.4
14.0
21.7
24.0
16.6
13.2
8.7
-5.0
 
 
 
13.5
ECM
00
Analogs
14.6
15.9
18.6
23.5
22.4
23.6
22.0
15.6
11.2
4.7
10.9
12.4
16.4
Klein
11.0
20.5
20.7
21.3
32.2
30.8
30.0
25.4
23.9
15.2
21.5
20.2
22.7
NNet
1.9
8.6
13.3
26.4
33.7
25.1
3.7
15.7
13.0
 
 
 
15.8
ECM
12
Analogs
14.0
22.4
20.7
18.4
16.2
22.8
21.7
16.8
15.0
6.7
12.6
16.0
17.1
Klein
9.2
25.7
21.5
20.6
25.4
26.7
24.5
22.4
22.6
14.4
20.2
20.4
21.4
NNet
4.1
16.4
17.6
27.0
32.7
17.7
7.5
13.4
2.9
 
 
 
16.4