D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Official
xx
All
36.0
32.7
10.4
48.5
44.0
60.9
44.5
27.5
48.5
19.9
34.4
28.8
36.6
ExpAuto
xx
All
37.5
39.8
19.6
49.1
51.3
61.0
46.1
27.2
46.2
23.2
33.6
34.4
39.3
Auto
xx
All
21.1
32.7
8.5
42.7
50.8
52.7
51.5
26.8
32.6
14.1
30.4
9.2
31.0
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-3.5
-6.8
5.2
6.1
-6.7
-8.5
0.8
1.2
-3.8
2.2
-5.2
-1.3
-1.8
Klein
18.1
17.4
6.2
27.4
38.1
34.3
34.8
18.1
27.0
17.4
28.5
7.3
22.9
NNet
11.1
26.4
5.5
19.5
26.6
27.6
26.2
13.3
15.7
13.1
-3.5
-2.8
15.1
GFSM
00
Analogs
1.3
14.9
10.5
24.0
37.2
20.7
27.5
6.2
15.5
9.3
13.7
5.8
15.4
Klein
7.1
12.9
14.0
23.3
31.1
31.4
25.5
13.3
14.8
13.6
20.6
6.4
17.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
38.5
29.3
9.4
39.9
37.7
56.0
37.0
16.2
33.9
15.2
19.7
19.7
29.4
GFSM
06
Analogs
3.7
24.1
14.1
24.1
36.0
17.2
30.0
7.0
11.4
10.0
14.4
8.4
16.5
Klein
8.6
14.4
7.6
22.9
30.0
30.2
26.6
13.2
16.0
15.9
21.2
6.3
17.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
27.7
25.5
6.1
45.8
 
 
30.7
-8.3
35.1
13.5
24.9
20.8
21.1
GFSM
12
Analogs
-1.3
13.7
14.6
19.9
32.7
14.9
23.9
1.9
12.0
13.1
15.2
7.1
14.0
Klein
3.6
6.6
6.9
16.1
27.0
23.6
19.4
9.6
11.6
13.4
20.1
6.0
13.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
40.0
30.9
11.0
41.6
39.4
56.8
36.1
20.4
35.6
16.5
21.3
21.2
30.9
GFSM
18
Analogs
-1.8
14.7
15.9
23.2
32.2
12.6
21.9
4.4
13.8
10.6
14.4
8.1
14.2
Klein
5.0
9.1
7.4
19.0
27.2
20.2
22.5
9.4
13.8
14.2
21.1
6.2
14.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
37.5
27.0
13.2
40.8
43.4
54.6
34.9
17.7
34.6
16.0
23.5
21.7
30.4
GFSM
xx
Analogs
1.4
17.9
13.2
22.6
37.9
18.4
26.6
7.0
13.1
10.8
15.6
5.7
15.8
Klein
8.6
13.3
11.2
23.5
30.8
31.0
26.6
12.8
15.5
14.9
21.6
6.6
17.9
Klein_Prob
10.3
14.6
10.2
24.9
31.7
32.4
27.7
14.4
20.5
16.4
22.9
6.7
19.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
41.1
35.9
23.6
45.0
40.6
54.9
40.9
29.4
45.8
29.2
32.3
29.9
37.5
Uncal_Temp
20.0
16.4
18.3
33.3
37.0
46.5
29.0
9.0
11.4
2.9
27.4
13.8
22.1
ECMM
00
Analogs
5.7
28.0
12.9
26.6
36.7
20.9
34.7
13.0
13.2
7.7
19.4
9.5
19.1
Klein
9.3
21.7
3.4
23.0
35.5
32.1
33.0
21.2
20.5
22.2
27.8
8.4
21.4
Klein_Prob
11.8
24.1
3.5
23.9
39.2
33.9
33.9
21.5
24.8
21.6
28.9
9.1
22.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
36.1
42.6
24.5
46.4
46.7
51.0
43.8
32.7
50.2
27.5
35.1
36.1
39.9
Uncal_Temp
40.2
35.4
19.6
35.0
39.2
46.0
30.7
16.4
20.7
18.2
30.4
32.5
30.0
ECMM
12
Analogs
5.5
24.2
13.8
26.2
39.4
19.6
29.6
15.0
14.9
7.3
14.8
7.8
18.2
Klein
6.9
18.3
-1.3
23.3
38.0
31.5
29.3
21.5
20.7
21.3
26.5
6.7
20.1
Klein_Prob
8.3
21.2
0.6
23.4
39.9
32.8
29.7
20.8
25.0
21.1
30.3
6.8
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
33.0
42.7
27.3
47.1
50.0
52.0
43.9
39.8
53.5
26.5
37.8
38.2
41.6
Uncal_Temp
34.6
32.4
21.1
31.9
43.0
45.9
30.3
19.0
19.7
13.3
34.2
25.9
29.2
CANM
00
Analogs
4.4
25.2
12.7
19.8
33.0
15.6
28.2
7.1
14.9
13.0
10.9
9.6
16.1
Klein
5.4
15.9
9.4
18.1
34.1
24.8
27.2
13.7
19.2
17.8
17.5
7.8
17.4
Klein_Prob
11.6
17.8
6.7
17.7
35.7
27.0
25.9
12.8
22.2
18.8
19.5
7.0
18.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
3.3
21.0
13.8
15.5
34.3
10.0
22.4
6.1
9.3
13.2
12.9
5.4
13.9
Klein
1.8
12.8
7.1
9.6
30.7
17.3
20.8
11.4
15.3
18.1
18.8
5.7
13.9
Klein_Prob
6.0
15.0
6.3
10.6
33.7
19.2
21.9
14.2
17.6
19.2
22.5
4.2
15.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
2.9
20.4
9.2
22.2
34.2
20.0
32.0
7.6
11.2
7.3
8.4
6.5
15.3
Klein
8.8
14.3
1.4
23.4
27.8
29.2
22.8
10.2
20.1
12.0
18.1
5.8
16.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
5.5
22.1
9.5
22.9
35.6
21.3
29.9
3.9
10.4
11.7
14.9
5.8
16.2
Klein
9.1
14.6
3.0
24.9
31.3
30.9
26.8
11.5
22.8
13.0
20.2
5.3
17.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
7.5
16.6
2.7
19.3
35.0
20.2
26.6
5.9
9.0
7.6
11.8
5.8
14.0
Klein
10.7
10.3
-1.5
18.2
28.4
28.9
25.8
12.7
16.7
10.2
16.3
7.3
15.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
10.9
12.9
15.1
13.8
32.6
18.1
28.9
8.7
13.8
10.8
13.3
4.1
15.2
Klein
11.3
12.2
5.0
18.0
30.8
27.7
27.9
13.8
22.1
12.1
17.3
8.5
17.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
4.2
29.4
10.6
23.5
30.7
22.4
31.3
7.8
11.1
4.4
15.8
5.9
16.3
Klein
10.7
23.1
2.5
19.1
35.4
29.4
27.1
24.1
21.0
14.4
27.2
9.7
20.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
2.5
27.7
11.5
23.6
30.9
21.3
30.9
12.4
15.7
7.3
13.9
8.5
17.2
Klein
6.7
18.0
-1.8
18.0
34.3
27.6
24.1
19.8
24.9
14.2
23.9
8.6
18.3
NNet