D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
Aug 16
Official
xx
All
54.4
38.1
48.5
62.2
37.8
48.1
49.9
41.6
38.9
42.8
52.9
42.8
46.5
ExpAuto
xx
All
56.7
44.0
48.3
65.4
38.8
52.5
43.5
43.9
35.8
46.3
50.8
43.9
47.2
Auto
xx
All
56.3
42.7
44.9
63.2
41.7
51.7
47.8
47.4
40.4
44.3
53.3
46.5
48.1
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
19.2
6.9
22.3
42.8
17.2
7.8
16.8
19.0
19.6
9.0
10.1
4.0
16.4
Klein
18.8
8.7
23.1
32.1
13.7
21.7
22.3
20.7
25.2
25.5
29.7
12.8
21.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
46.5
41.7
41.6
56.4
24.6
50.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
42.3
GFSM
06
Analogs
16.9
9.6
25.5
43.8
14.8
5.3
19.1
20.4
18.7
7.6
12.7
0.5
16.7
Klein
20.5
9.0
23.5
30.2
15.8
22.9
21.3
22.5
25.5
28.9
31.4
13.9
22.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
45.4
44.2
41.5
56.5
22.9
50.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
42.4
GFSM
12
Analogs
16.0
6.8
21.3
44.9
12.3
0.8
21.8
16.7
13.1
10.6
9.0
-0.6
14.8
Klein
13.9
8.0
20.0
23.7
10.7
15.5
20.4
15.0
20.3
26.4
28.2
9.4
18.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
45.5
47.0
42.9
56.7
26.2
57.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
44.1
GFSM
18
Analogs
16.3
6.4
19.9
44.3
11.1
3.2
22.4
18.1
14.6
6.3
9.6
5.0
15.2
Klein
16.4
5.4
17.8
23.8
10.1
16.6
17.4
18.8
18.7
24.8
29.9
10.8
18.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
43.4
44.5
42.3
56.7
21.8
55.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
42.2
GFSM
xx
Analogs
19.1
10.9
18.4
46.1
15.8
5.9
18.4
20.9
18.7
6.6
7.2
5.3
16.5
Klein
18.9
7.9
21.3
30.8
15.0
21.5
21.8
20.9
25.8
26.4
29.1
13.2
21.6
Klein_Prob
25.2
11.5
25.5
36.0
14.2
24.1
22.9
25.6
27.1
29.3
34.0
20.0
25.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
46.1
49.8
44.1
63.9
32.7
45.5
49.9
39.7
32.1
44.3
54.8
42.0
45.4
Uncal_Temp
22.5
25.6
26.8
48.0
22.8
23.8
27.7
21.6
28.9
27.2
36.3
23.0
28.0
ECMM
00
Analogs
19.4
6.2
25.6
41.1
22.9
13.3
17.0
16.6
18.2
6.7
14.2
7.1
17.5
Klein
25.9
10.1
27.6
33.1
15.6
21.4
15.3
23.1
28.1
29.6
22.8
8.6
22.1
Klein_Prob
29.9
14.8
31.2
36.0
16.0
26.3
14.8
26.6
28.8
33.0
27.5
12.5
25.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
56.3
43.9
40.0
58.0
38.8
48.0
47.6
48.1
39.5
50.9
53.8
44.6
47.4
Uncal_Temp
50.3
40.9
38.5
49.4
25.9
35.4
30.4
29.2
31.1
32.8
41.0
32.8
36.3
ECMM
12
Analogs
23.4
7.6
24.8
43.3
22.7
15.8
16.4
14.9
21.9
9.4
17.7
8.2
18.8
Klein
23.5
10.2
24.6
29.1
14.8
20.1
13.5
21.8
27.1
30.4
25.1
7.1
20.8
Klein_Prob
27.3
14.6
28.7
32.0
14.3
23.9
14.8
26.8
27.2
33.5
29.9
10.5
23.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
56.6
49.2
42.8
63.7
42.9
49.9
51.8
52.8
40.2
52.4
56.4
47.0
50.3
Uncal_Temp
48.6
39.9
36.2
46.5
27.0
32.8
30.1
28.5
32.9
27.5
38.2
27.6
34.4
CANM
00
Analogs
10.9
7.3
25.4
39.9
13.8
5.8
19.7
15.4
18.2
10.9
13.8
-0.0
15.3
Klein
13.3
14.6
20.2
32.0
14.4
22.3
29.6
22.1
23.5
29.2
18.2
1.3
20.4
Klein_Prob
20.3
17.9
24.1
36.1
14.6
28.6
28.7
24.6
26.2
33.1
23.3
4.4
23.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
12.9
7.6
21.6
38.4
10.7
8.1
23.9
15.2
15.4
13.7
12.4
0.8
15.2
Klein
10.1
12.9
18.7
24.5
11.8
18.1
26.9
17.1
18.8
26.2
14.8
-0.2
17.1
Klein_Prob
12.9
16.7
21.5
29.2
12.1
23.0
26.4
18.5
19.3
29.1
20.6
1.5
19.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
18.6
8.7
23.2
42.6
18.4
4.5
14.6
13.3
19.8
7.0
10.3
7.7
15.8
Klein
22.8
12.5
21.4
33.9
8.7
16.1
15.5
16.4
25.3
24.4
30.0
14.0
20.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
19.1
8.8
22.5
39.0
22.5
6.4
16.6
16.6
18.6
6.5
7.2
2.2
15.6
Klein
23.5
15.2
19.6
31.5
14.2
20.4
18.2
17.1
26.5
27.1
28.6
13.8
21.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
17.7
2.2
21.9
40.5
14.6
4.8
19.2
13.5
17.2
10.2
11.3
4.5
15.1
Klein
18.9
6.2
21.3
26.3
6.4
18.1
19.5
12.6
17.0
26.8
29.0
11.9
18.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
16.7
6.0
26.2
36.9
11.5
2.4
19.4
17.6
14.4
12.1
7.6
7.2
15.3
Klein
22.3
12.3
19.9
23.7
7.0
21.0
21.2
16.1
18.8
24.8
28.2
15.1
19.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
19.4
6.5
26.9
38.4
18.1
15.7
23.0
10.6
20.0
8.1
14.3
9.4
17.5
Klein
26.6
9.0
28.7
29.0
11.4
18.4
18.6
21.6
26.3
25.5
25.9
12.1
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
16.7
6.1
29.1
41.3
20.1
13.8
27.6
11.6
20.7
6.0
13.9
8.6
17.8
Klein
26.1
9.1
26.0
25.2
11.6
17.5
13.5
18.5
24.9
24.2
24.6
7.1
19.1
NNet