D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Nov 17
Dec 17
Jan 18
Feb 18
Mar 18
Apr 18
May 18
Jun 18
Jul 18
Aug 18
Sep 18
Oct 18
Official
xx
All
37.5
46.4
37.5
45.7
34.2
43.7
58.0
40.9
46.1
42.3
52.7
52.0
45.2
ExpAuto
xx
All
37.6
52.2
39.5
50.5
33.5
42.3
60.1
41.0
46.2
44.2
51.3
50.7
46.0
Auto
xx
All
37.4
52.2
39.4
76.2
33.0
42.0
56.0
40.3
46.6
41.7
51.2
51.8
46.9
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
11.7
19.9
10.0
28.0
17.0
17.2
12.9
7.7
18.4
17.3
9.4
29.5
16.7
Klein
22.1
8.5
11.4
37.7
22.0
19.5
10.7
20.3
24.6
22.1
19.6
20.4
19.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
9.4
21.4
6.4
34.0
17.7
19.6
8.1
5.6
21.1
19.8
7.5
29.7
16.6
Klein
24.5
11.0
10.4
39.2
22.8
19.9
9.2
19.4
26.3
23.0
20.6
21.4
20.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
13.5
18.0
2.3
26.7
10.6
18.5
6.1
10.3
16.6
19.5
4.6
22.9
13.7
Klein
19.6
6.8
4.5
35.9
19.0
21.6
8.0
17.5
23.5
21.3
19.9
16.7
17.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
12.8
19.1
8.6
24.1
12.7
23.1
7.7
6.9
14.0
17.3
8.5
29.6
15.2
Klein
20.0
6.6
7.3
32.7
16.0
25.9
10.2
16.9
22.8
25.3
19.8
17.4
17.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
10.5
20.8
5.8
27.7
15.1
18.6
9.8
8.3
17.7
17.8
8.5
27.8
15.6
Klein
22.6
9.0
7.5
38.7
21.6
18.6
7.5
19.9
25.4
22.4
18.7
19.9
19.1
Klein_Prob
22.7
13.8
13.3
40.2
22.4
22.3
13.9
22.6
29.9
26.9
22.3
25.9
22.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
33.4
50.3
36.1
40.9
24.7
43.1
54.0
48.2
52.2
45.9
51.1
52.6
44.4
Uncal_Temp
25.8
37.9
23.4
33.6
28.1
30.6
24.2
29.9
31.1
16.5
31.5
45.6
30.2
ECMM
00
Analogs
18.4
24.3
11.5
32.0
21.8
7.2
11.1
3.5
22.6
22.3
16.9
22.1
17.6
Klein
25.2
18.2
5.3
39.1
24.8
15.5
11.0
26.8
25.0
26.2
22.8
23.9
21.8
Klein_Prob
26.2
22.1
9.6
40.5
24.8
19.2
17.9
27.9
26.7
28.7
27.1
28.3
24.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
34.5
52.4
38.6
68.1
35.8
40.6
45.4
47.1
51.3
49.4
58.3
50.5
48.0
Uncal_Temp
30.7
47.3
29.1
44.1
29.5
28.0
20.7
28.8
30.9
26.0
43.9
44.7
33.9
ECMM
12
Analogs
19.7
25.6
7.9
27.9
22.4
11.5
8.9
3.5
21.0
22.6
15.1
20.2
16.9
Klein
23.6
17.9
4.5
35.4
19.7
16.8
9.1
26.5
22.3
26.8
22.6
19.9
20.2
Klein_Prob
25.7
22.5
6.0
36.8
19.4
20.2
16.9
29.6
25.4
29.4
26.4
24.9
23.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
39.7
55.3
40.2
46.6
39.7
42.4
46.5
52.6
51.1
51.9
57.9
50.2
47.8
Uncal_Temp
31.4
45.9
27.7
40.8
27.7
28.7
13.1
23.8
27.1
19.4
39.4
40.9
30.9
CANM
00
Analogs
16.1
9.5
6.4
34.9
19.8
15.6
11.9
5.7
18.1
21.5
15.9
19.1
15.9
Klein
25.6
10.6
4.3
37.4
19.3
15.2
11.5
25.0
25.2
22.9
18.7
11.3
18.7
Klein_Prob
26.0
13.3
7.8
38.6
20.3
16.9
18.6
26.6
28.8
26.8
23.3
15.4
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
15.6
6.7
6.9
35.1
19.1
10.7
12.4
7.0
18.4
22.8
14.7
13.5
14.7
Klein
24.2
5.0
-0.9
33.4
14.7
9.6
10.7
24.5
23.1
22.8
17.4
5.8
15.4
Klein_Prob
25.2
9.7
2.5
35.3
15.8
12.8
19.1
26.0
26.4
27.4
21.7
9.4
18.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
11.0
16.2
11.3
28.9
16.3
16.6
8.4
8.2
19.9
18.4
3.9
28.4
15.5
Klein
22.5
11.6
18.7
40.0
16.9
20.7
15.1
19.0
27.2
18.1
14.8
19.4
20.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
25.2
18.6
18.8
31.1
14.4
16.3
7.2
9.0
21.4
20.1
10.4
27.5
16.4
Klein
 
 
 
36.3
15.8
16.9
13.7
16.9
21.8
23.4
18.4
19.8
20.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
6.0
16.8
11.6
29.8
13.3
20.8
6.4
2.8
15.7
20.1
8.1
22.7
14.2
Klein
18.4
14.1
17.6
36.5
15.9
20.8
6.2
18.0
24.1
18.9
19.6
17.3
18.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
11.5
17.5
14.7
33.2
12.4
21.1
6.4
3.1
16.0
11.1
6.0
25.3
14.9
Klein
21.6
14.1
21.0
37.7
15.9
19.3
17.9
17.2
22.0
16.2
17.5
18.9
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
19.3
19.4
13.8
55.4
20.4
10.5
8.3
1.0
16.9
17.1
13.2
19.9
14.8
Klein
21.4
14.1
16.2
38.7
24.4
17.0
12.2
22.5
29.4
23.5
18.4
19.3
21.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
17.9
26.0
10.4
29.3
19.9
10.1
7.5
5.0
17.8
14.4
9.9
19.1
15.4
Klein
17.6
13.7
11.2
32.7
20.6
17.1
14.2
20.7
25.9
22.5
20.5
16.9
19.5
NNet