D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Jun 16
Jul 16
Aug 16
Sep 16
Oct 16
Nov 16
Dec 16
Jan 17
Feb 17
Mar 17
Apr 17
May 17
Official
xx
All
42.8
52.9
42.8
42.2
56.6
62.8
41.6
61.9
55.1
34.6
40.4
28.0
46.9
ExpAuto
xx
All
46.3
50.8
43.9
48.9
57.5
59.3
42.2
55.7
56.0
37.8
42.2
32.2
48.0
Auto
xx
All
44.3
53.3
46.5
49.7
59.1
61.7
38.0
58.6
58.7
37.8
42.5
32.1
48.7
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
9.0
10.1
4.0
10.4
20.2
15.7
26.0
28.5
5.7
23.0
19.8
11.8
15.7
Klein
25.5
29.7
12.8
23.8
21.1
18.3
23.5
23.6
6.8
25.3
26.3
22.4
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
7.6
12.7
0.5
8.0
22.9
14.1
25.1
27.6
9.5
21.0
22.6
13.9
15.7
Klein
28.9
31.4
13.9
21.6
21.6
21.8
25.9
22.6
10.1
23.0
28.0
24.1
23.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
10.6
9.0
-0.6
7.8
21.5
12.9
25.0
18.7
5.5
24.9
19.1
15.7
14.5
Klein
26.4
28.2
9.4
17.6
13.7
12.8
20.2
15.9
6.5
20.2
24.2
23.8
18.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
6.3
9.6
5.0
6.6
18.4
12.9
19.7
14.9
1.8
21.1
17.5
15.5
12.6
Klein
24.8
29.9
10.8
17.2
14.9
13.4
21.1
16.1
6.0
17.7
23.9
24.3
18.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
6.6
7.2
5.3
10.1
22.8
15.2
26.8
26.2
6.3
26.8
22.2
11.2
15.8
Klein
26.4
29.1
13.2
19.9
19.6
18.6
25.7
24.3
6.6
22.3
26.5
22.4
21.5
Klein_Prob
29.3
34.0
20.0
28.0
29.1
24.1
27.6
24.5
13.6
27.9
29.7
24.6
26.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
44.3
54.8
42.0
43.3
56.7
59.7
36.8
50.6
48.3
39.4
42.6
33.9
46.2
Uncal_Temp
27.2
36.3
23.0
33.8
39.2
39.3
26.0
44.9
23.7
17.8
17.7
22.9
29.5
ECMM
00
Analogs
6.7
14.2
7.1
14.2
32.0
26.9
25.2
32.7
4.7
25.8
20.0
15.8
18.9
Klein
29.6
22.8
8.6
19.3
28.8
27.6
26.6
23.6
15.9
25.6
32.3
23.2
24.0
Klein_Prob
33.0
27.5
12.5
26.0
35.6
30.2
28.7
24.1
20.5
28.4
34.8
27.8
27.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
50.9
53.8
44.6
46.9
59.9
59.9
29.0
56.6
54.0
42.0
44.1
35.0
48.2
Uncal_Temp
32.8
41.0
32.8
41.2
49.8
49.1
24.9
47.1
34.0
26.0
21.1
22.0
35.3
ECMM
12
Analogs
9.4
17.7
8.2
12.6
31.9
29.6
24.4
26.9
4.4
31.1
19.8
17.6
19.5
Klein
30.4
25.1
7.1
19.9
26.9
24.1
23.9
19.7
17.5
24.3
29.7
28.3
23.4
Klein_Prob
33.5
29.9
10.5
26.4
33.5
27.3
25.4
20.1
22.3
27.6
33.1
30.3
27.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
52.4
56.4
47.0
49.5
59.9
62.1
36.7
62.5
55.5
44.6
47.2
41.3
51.3
Uncal_Temp
27.5
38.2
27.6
39.0
45.7
44.3
27.9
48.9
33.0
28.1
18.9
21.2
33.4
CANM
00
Analogs
10.9
13.8
-0.0
17.3
17.6
19.3
21.6
27.9
13.4
22.1
19.8
9.3
16.2
Klein
29.2
18.2
1.3
19.0
18.6
25.1
24.1
25.3
17.2
24.5
25.6
18.2
20.9
Klein_Prob
33.1
23.3
4.4
24.7
25.3
27.6
26.4
26.5
22.6
26.6
28.6
21.7
24.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
13.7
12.4
0.8
10.6
21.4
7.7
16.9
26.1
16.2
19.6
13.8
12.3
14.5
Klein
26.2
14.8
-0.2
11.1
15.9
18.2
19.0
18.6
18.0
21.6
26.9
20.1
17.7
Klein_Prob
29.1
20.6
1.5
16.7
22.3
20.6
19.3
18.8
22.4
24.1
29.8
24.8
21.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
7.0
10.3
7.7
12.2
22.7
27.6
21.6
33.1
5.4
20.4
19.4
11.9
16.7
Klein
24.4
30.0
14.0
25.9
21.0
23.4
22.9
24.2
15.3
20.4
25.8
21.0
22.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
6.5
7.2
2.2
9.5
16.9
24.1
24.0
31.1
6.5
22.6
15.9
11.8
14.9
Klein
27.1
28.6
13.8
21.5
18.8
24.2
24.1
22.8
18.0
23.4
24.7
23.5
22.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
10.2
11.3
4.5
8.9
11.0
23.6
20.8
25.5
3.7
22.8
17.1
15.9
14.8
Klein
26.8
29.0
11.9
22.8
16.9
22.1
22.6
20.6
18.1
19.9
24.4
23.1
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
12.1
7.6
7.2
10.6
16.7
22.9
18.9
27.6
8.8
14.0
20.9
19.0
15.8
Klein
24.8
28.2
15.1
24.7
20.1
17.6
21.6
19.0
18.0
17.3
26.8
26.4
22.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
8.1
14.3
9.4
10.0
17.3
17.9
13.9
29.6
7.9
28.4
18.5
16.9
16.2
Klein
25.5
25.9
12.1
20.9
22.0
24.5
21.5
21.1
19.4
24.4
29.0
23.5
22.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
6.0
13.9
8.6
8.3
18.3
17.4
14.0
24.0
-0.9
25.3
8.5
20.2
13.9
Klein
24.2
24.6
7.1
20.2
20.2
21.0
17.6
17.3
17.9
25.7
23.9
29.7
21.2
NNet