D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
May 17
Jun 17
Jul 17
Aug 17
Sep 17
Oct 17
Nov 17
Dec 17
Jan 18
Feb 18
Mar 18
Apr 18
Official
xx
All
28.0
30.9
36.4
29.1
59.8
50.3
37.5
46.4
37.5
45.7
34.2
43.7
40.4
ExpAuto
xx
All
32.2
36.1
44.5
51.9
38.0
52.4
37.6
52.2
39.5
50.5
33.5
42.3
41.8
Auto
xx
All
32.1
36.1
37.2
31.4
61.7
52.4
37.4
52.2
39.4
76.2
33.0
42.0
43.6
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
11.8
15.1
9.5
12.7
8.8
25.5
11.7
19.9
10.0
28.0
17.0
17.2
15.8
Klein
22.4
17.6
20.4
14.8
28.5
31.1
22.1
8.5
11.4
37.7
22.0
19.5
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
13.9
18.5
9.6
13.7
10.7
33.3
9.4
21.4
6.4
34.0
17.7
19.6
17.6
Klein
24.1
19.3
18.6
16.4
28.2
33.3
24.5
11.0
10.4
39.2
22.8
19.9
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
15.7
18.7
9.6
16.3
10.4
23.6
13.5
18.0
2.3
26.7
10.6
18.5
15.3
Klein
23.8
14.5
19.2
18.0
28.3
29.3
19.6
6.8
4.5
35.9
19.0
21.6
19.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
15.5
19.6
10.0
13.8
9.6
24.6
12.8
19.1
8.6
24.1
12.7
23.1
16.2
Klein
24.3
16.7
19.7
15.8
27.6
28.3
20.0
6.6
7.3
32.7
16.0
25.9
19.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
11.2
17.6
8.9
13.8
8.0
29.5
10.5
20.8
5.8
27.7
15.1
18.6
15.8
Klein
22.4
17.5
19.2
15.7
27.2
32.2
22.6
9.0
7.5
38.7
21.6
18.6
20.9
Klein_Prob
24.6
21.7
23.0
18.8
33.9
35.7
22.7
13.8
13.3
40.2
22.4
22.3
24.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
33.9
32.7
40.3
35.0
48.9
50.5
33.4
50.3
36.1
40.9
24.7
43.1
39.4
Uncal_Temp
22.9
22.2
27.7
19.2
40.5
38.0
25.8
37.9
23.4
33.6
28.1
30.6
29.1
ECMM
00
Analogs
15.8
16.1
13.8
12.8
15.4
29.2
18.4
24.3
11.5
32.0
21.8
7.2
18.2
Klein
23.2
20.6
16.2
18.2
30.3
33.4
25.2
18.2
5.3
39.1
24.8
15.5
22.5
Klein_Prob
27.8
23.3
18.4
18.6
35.3
34.8
26.2
22.1
9.6
40.5
24.8
19.2
25.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
35.0
35.1
39.9
33.8
57.2
45.2
34.5
52.4
38.6
68.1
35.8
40.6
42.8
Uncal_Temp
22.0
19.1
21.9
14.7
49.0
41.3
30.7
47.3
29.1
44.1
29.5
28.0
31.6
ECMM
12
Analogs
17.6
18.5
10.7
13.8
12.2
29.8
19.7
25.6
7.9
27.9
22.4
11.5
18.2
Klein
28.3
22.6
16.3
20.1
30.4
30.1
23.6
17.9
4.5
35.4
19.7
16.8
22.1
Klein_Prob
30.3
25.2
19.4
20.4
36.2
32.5
25.7
22.5
6.0
36.8
19.4
20.2
24.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
41.3
37.5
42.0
37.1
60.2
50.8
39.7
55.3
40.2
46.6
39.7
42.4
44.7
Uncal_Temp
21.2
14.9
14.2
14.9
46.9
44.1
31.4
45.9
27.7
40.8
27.7
28.7
30.0
CANM
00
Analogs
9.3
21.3
8.4
12.2
20.7
29.9
16.1
9.5
6.4
34.9
19.8
15.6
17.2
Klein
18.2
18.7
14.0
16.5
30.6
24.9
25.6
10.6
4.3
37.4
19.3
15.2
19.6
Klein_Prob
21.7
21.7
16.5
18.1
36.2
28.2
26.0
13.3
7.8
38.6
20.3
16.9
22.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
12.3
19.6
10.2
12.2
14.0
23.6
15.6
6.7
6.9
35.1
19.1
10.7
15.5
Klein
20.1
17.0
15.2
16.4
24.8
22.5
24.2
5.0
-0.9
33.4
14.7
9.6
16.8
Klein_Prob
24.8
18.6
17.1
20.1
31.2
26.7
25.2
9.7
2.5
35.3
15.8
12.8
20.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
11.9
16.8
8.2
13.4
8.2
25.4
11.0
16.2
11.3
28.9
16.3
16.6
15.6
Klein
21.0
14.8
15.7
15.7
29.0
29.8
22.5
11.6
18.7
40.0
16.9
20.7
21.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
23.5
17.9
15.5
15.4
27.4
32.3
25.2
18.6
18.8
31.1
14.4
16.3
16.8
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
36.3
15.8
16.9
22.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
15.9
16.2
6.8
10.2
15.6
22.6
6.0
16.8
11.6
29.8
13.3
20.8
15.5
Klein
23.1
16.6
16.7
17.5
32.5
28.9
18.4
14.1
17.6
36.5
15.9
20.8
21.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
19.0
15.9
7.6
11.7
7.9
25.4
11.5
17.5
14.7
33.2
12.4
21.1
16.5
Klein
26.4
14.1
16.2
17.6
31.4
34.1
21.6
14.1
21.0
37.7
15.9
19.3
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
16.9
17.0
12.6
11.6
10.9
21.4
19.3
19.4
13.8
55.4
20.4
10.5
21.1
Klein
23.5
22.7
13.6
14.8
28.1
25.2
21.4
14.1
16.2
38.7
24.4
17.0
21.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
20.2
15.7
11.3
11.6
9.8
24.3
17.9
26.0
10.4
29.3
19.9
10.1
17.2
Klein
29.7
20.3
16.0
18.2
25.8
25.5
17.6
13.7
11.2
32.7
20.6
17.1
20.8
NNet