D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
Aug 16
Sep 16
Oct 16
Nov 16
Dec 16
Jan 17
Feb 17
Official
xx
All
49.9
41.6
38.9
42.8
52.9
42.8
42.2
56.6
62.8
41.6
61.9
55.1
49.3
ExpAuto
xx
All
43.5
43.9
35.8
46.3
50.8
43.9
48.9
57.5
59.3
42.2
55.7
56.0
48.9
Auto
xx
All
47.8
47.4
40.4
44.3
53.3
46.5
49.7
59.1
61.7
38.0
58.6
58.7
50.6
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
16.8
19.0
19.6
9.0
10.1
4.0
10.4
20.2
15.7
26.0
28.5
5.7
15.8
Klein
22.3
20.7
25.2
25.5
29.7
12.8
23.8
21.1
18.3
23.5
23.6
6.8
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
19.1
20.4
18.7
7.6
12.7
0.5
8.0
22.9
14.1
25.1
27.6
9.5
15.8
Klein
21.3
22.5
25.5
28.9
31.4
13.9
21.6
21.6
21.8
25.9
22.6
10.1
22.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
21.8
16.7
13.1
10.6
9.0
-0.6
7.8
21.5
12.9
25.0
18.7
5.5
13.7
Klein
20.4
15.0
20.3
26.4
28.2
9.4
17.6
13.7
12.8
20.2
15.9
6.5
17.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
22.4
18.1
14.6
6.3
9.6
5.0
6.6
18.4
12.9
19.7
14.9
1.8
12.7
Klein
17.4
18.8
18.7
24.8
29.9
10.8
17.2
14.9
13.4
21.1
16.1
6.0
17.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
18.4
20.9
18.7
6.6
7.2
5.3
10.1
22.8
15.2
26.8
26.2
6.3
15.7
Klein
21.8
20.9
25.8
26.4
29.1
13.2
19.9
19.6
18.6
25.7
24.3
6.6
21.5
Klein_Prob
22.9
25.6
27.1
29.3
34.0
20.0
28.0
29.1
24.1
27.6
24.5
13.6
26.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
49.9
39.7
32.1
44.3
54.8
42.0
43.3
56.7
59.7
36.8
50.6
48.3
46.8
Uncal_Temp
27.7
21.6
28.9
27.2
36.3
23.0
33.8
39.2
39.3
26.0
44.9
23.7
31.4
ECMM
00
Analogs
17.0
16.6
18.2
6.7
14.2
7.1
14.2
32.0
26.9
25.2
32.7
4.7
18.2
Klein
15.3
23.1
28.1
29.6
22.8
8.6
19.3
28.8
27.6
26.6
23.6
15.9
22.9
Klein_Prob
14.8
26.6
28.8
33.0
27.5
12.5
26.0
35.6
30.2
28.7
24.1
20.5
26.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
47.6
48.1
39.5
50.9
53.8
44.6
46.9
59.9
59.9
29.0
56.6
54.0
49.4
Uncal_Temp
30.4
29.2
31.1
32.8
41.0
32.8
41.2
49.8
49.1
24.9
47.1
34.0
37.2
ECMM
12
Analogs
16.4
14.9
21.9
9.4
17.7
8.2
12.6
31.9
29.6
24.4
26.9
4.4
18.3
Klein
13.5
21.8
27.1
30.4
25.1
7.1
19.9
26.9
24.1
23.9
19.7
17.5
21.8
Klein_Prob
14.8
26.8
27.2
33.5
29.9
10.5
26.4
33.5
27.3
25.4
20.1
22.3
25.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
51.8
52.8
40.2
52.4
56.4
47.0
49.5
59.9
62.1
36.7
62.5
55.5
52.3
Uncal_Temp
30.1
28.5
32.9
27.5
38.2
27.6
39.0
45.7
44.3
27.9
48.9
33.0
35.4
CANM
00
Analogs
19.7
15.4
18.2
10.9
13.8
-0.0
17.3
17.6
19.3
21.6
27.9
13.4
16.3
Klein
29.6
22.1
23.5
29.2
18.2
1.3
19.0
18.6
25.1
24.1
25.3
17.2
21.5
Klein_Prob
28.7
24.6
26.2
33.1
23.3
4.4
24.7
25.3
27.6
26.4
26.5
22.6
24.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
23.9
15.2
15.4
13.7
12.4
0.8
10.6
21.4
7.7
16.9
26.1
16.2
15.2
Klein
26.9
17.1
18.8
26.2
14.8
-0.2
11.1
15.9
18.2
19.0
18.6
18.0
17.3
Klein_Prob
26.4
18.5
19.3
29.1
20.6
1.5
16.7
22.3
20.6
19.3
18.8
22.4
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
14.6
13.3
19.8
7.0
10.3
7.7
12.2
22.7
27.6
21.6
33.1
5.4
16.4
Klein
15.5
16.4
25.3
24.4
30.0
14.0
25.9
21.0
23.4
22.9
24.2
15.3
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
16.6
16.6
18.6
6.5
7.2
2.2
9.5
16.9
24.1
24.0
31.1
6.5
15.1
Klein
18.2
17.1
26.5
27.1
28.6
13.8
21.5
18.8
24.2
24.1
22.8
18.0
22.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
19.2
13.5
17.2
10.2
11.3
4.5
8.9
11.0
23.6
20.8
25.5
3.7
14.4
Klein
19.5
12.6
17.0
26.8
29.0
11.9
22.8
16.9
22.1
22.6
20.6
18.1
20.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
19.4
17.6
14.4
12.1
7.6
7.2
10.6
16.7
22.9
18.9
27.6
8.8
15.5
Klein
21.2
16.1
18.8
24.8
28.2
15.1
24.7
20.1
17.6
21.6
19.0
18.0
20.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
23.0
10.6
20.0
8.1
14.3
9.4
10.0
17.3
17.9
13.9
29.6
7.9
15.4
Klein
18.6
21.6
26.3
25.5
25.9
12.1
20.9
22.0
24.5
21.5
21.1
19.4
22.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
27.6
11.6
20.7
6.0
13.9
8.6
8.3
18.3
17.4
14.0
24.0
-0.9
14.4
Klein
13.5
18.5
24.9
24.2
24.6
7.1
20.2
20.2
21.0
17.6
17.3
17.9
19.4
NNet