D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Official
xx
All
27.5
48.5
19.9
34.4
28.8
44.6
31.0
41.5
36.3
49.5
63.3
49.8
39.8
ExpAuto
xx
All
27.2
46.2
23.2
33.6
34.4
49.1
38.8
34.9
42.4
50.2
61.2
52.4
41.3
Auto
xx
All
26.8
32.6
14.1
30.4
9.2
37.3
21.9
35.9
42.4
50.5
61.6
51.5
34.7
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
1.2
-3.8
2.2
-5.2
-1.3
-5.5
21.0
12.1
-2.3
0.6
-14.8
-2.9
0.3
Klein
18.1
27.0
17.4
28.5
7.3
32.9
13.3
37.3
14.6
20.8
47.6
8.2
24.0
NNet
13.3
15.7
13.1
-3.5
-2.8
18.8
20.8
29.9
15.6
27.6
40.4
23.1
17.1
GFSM
00
Analogs
6.2
15.5
9.3
13.7
5.8
23.9
16.6
29.7
15.5
28.6
33.1
9.7
17.4
Klein
13.3
14.8
13.6
20.6
6.4
29.4
13.1
31.4
12.3
20.4
44.9
33.2
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
16.2
33.9
15.2
19.7
19.7
37.7
38.7
28.4
38.2
44.1
57.4
48.4
33.2
GFSM
06
Analogs
7.0
11.4
10.0
14.4
8.4
24.7
17.4
30.1
14.3
29.5
34.9
15.8
18.2
Klein
13.2
16.0
15.9
21.2
6.3
31.9
11.3
30.9
12.0
21.2
45.8
31.5
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
-8.3
35.1
13.5
24.9
20.8
37.9
39.6
29.1
37.7
46.0
57.0
48.1
35.1
GFSM
12
Analogs
1.9
12.0
13.1
15.2
7.1
25.6
24.8
31.8
13.6
22.4
29.4
15.1
17.6
Klein
9.6
11.6
13.4
20.1
6.0
25.6
14.6
27.9
6.3
12.6
40.7
28.4
18.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
20.4
35.6
16.5
21.3
21.2
39.4
41.5
32.2
40.0
47.6
59.7
50.5
35.4
GFSM
18
Analogs
4.4
13.8
10.6
14.4
8.1
24.0
24.7
31.4
12.5
23.6
32.1
9.7
17.4
Klein
9.4
13.8
14.2
21.1
6.2
27.2
15.0
30.0
8.9
16.7
46.1
27.3
19.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
17.7
34.6
16.0
23.5
21.7
38.6
42.8
33.0
39.3
49.0
59.3
47.8
35.2
GFSM
xx
Analogs
7.0
13.1
10.8
15.6
5.7
22.6
17.2
28.9
16.6
28.0
33.6
11.0
17.6
Klein
12.8
15.5
14.9
21.6
6.6
30.6
13.1
30.9
12.5
21.1
46.0
32.9
21.7
Klein_Prob
14.4
20.5
16.4
22.9
6.7
34.1
14.3
30.8
13.6
21.6
48.4
36.4
23.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
29.4
45.8
29.2
32.3
29.9
44.3
43.1
39.8
38.2
47.7
56.9
42.4
40.1
Uncal_Temp
9.0
11.4
2.9
27.4
13.8
24.0
20.8
33.4
32.5
35.1
53.9
22.8
24.2
ECMM
00
Analogs
13.0
13.2
7.7
19.4
9.5
23.2
18.1
29.8
18.4
29.0
29.7
10.5
18.5
Klein
21.2
20.5
22.2
27.8
8.4
27.7
16.0
35.8
19.1
17.6
40.0
35.0
24.5
Klein_Prob
21.5
24.8
21.6
28.9
9.1
32.8
16.0
35.3
19.7
19.4
42.6
39.5
26.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
32.7
50.2
27.5
35.1
36.1
46.5
38.4
41.7
40.4
43.9
59.6
50.1
41.8
Uncal_Temp
16.4
20.7
18.2
30.4
32.5
39.4
27.3
34.9
32.8
31.5
49.8
27.8
30.2
ECMM
12
Analogs
15.0
14.9
7.3
14.8
7.8
23.7
24.3
29.6
18.4
26.2
32.6
15.2
19.2
Klein
21.5
20.7
21.3
26.5
6.7
28.3
18.8
34.2
18.5
14.6
38.5
35.6
24.0
Klein_Prob
20.8
25.0
21.1
30.3
6.8
32.1
20.8
33.6
19.6
16.2
41.5
40.0
25.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
39.8
53.5
26.5
37.8
38.2
47.9
42.9
45.7
42.4
47.2
60.7
53.5
44.6
Uncal_Temp
19.0
19.7
13.3
34.2
25.9
35.2
25.8
36.6
29.7
30.2
49.4
25.8
28.8
CANM
00
Analogs
7.1
14.9
13.0
10.9
9.6
25.0
18.4
24.5
11.4
26.7
30.8
9.1
16.7
Klein
13.7
19.2
17.8
17.5
7.8
21.1
21.7
30.7
17.4
23.9
39.2
38.3
22.5
Klein_Prob
12.8
22.2
18.8
19.5
7.0
24.9
22.7
32.7
18.0
24.9
42.8
41.4
24.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
6.1
9.3
13.2
12.9
5.4
22.6
15.6
27.5
9.6
21.1
21.6
10.1
14.9
Klein
11.4
15.3
18.1
18.8
5.7
19.7
18.9
29.5
16.7
18.8
32.3
39.2
20.5
Klein_Prob
14.2
17.6
19.2
22.5
4.2
21.2
19.4
29.8
16.6
20.2
36.2
41.6
22.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
7.6
11.2
7.3
8.4
6.5
19.5
16.1
28.7
18.4
27.6
35.2
10.7
16.7
Klein
10.2
20.1
12.0
18.1
5.8
26.4
12.0
30.9
9.6
17.9
42.0
31.5
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
3.9
10.4
11.7
14.9
5.8
16.5
23.2
26.0
11.8
31.2
33.0
13.7
16.9
Klein
11.5
22.8
13.0
20.2
5.3
27.9
16.4
31.1
9.8
21.0
40.7
33.9
21.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
5.9
9.0
7.6
11.8
5.8
24.2
22.6
28.6
13.0
28.6
30.1
11.8
16.6
Klein
12.7
16.7
10.2
16.3
7.3
30.7
17.4
30.9
8.3
15.3
38.3
29.5
19.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
8.7
13.8
10.8
13.3
4.1
20.8
18.2
33.0
16.7
28.6
30.9
8.8
17.3
Klein
13.8
22.1
12.1
17.3
8.5
26.3
16.5
35.8
11.6
22.7
39.1
30.2
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
7.8
11.1
4.4
15.8
5.9
15.4
17.8
29.9
25.2
27.4
29.2
10.5
16.7
Klein
24.1
21.0
14.4
27.2
9.7
24.9
19.5
33.4
20.9
18.5
36.3
28.7
23.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
12.4
15.7
7.3
13.9
8.5
20.4
21.4
30.4
21.4
21.9
30.3
14.9
18.3
Klein
19.8
24.9
14.2
23.9
8.6
31.1
23.7
30.5
17.9
14.6
36.2
31.3
23.1
NNet