D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Official
xx
All
34.4
28.8
44.6
31.0
41.5
36.3
49.5
63.3
49.8
43.5
41.5
33.6
41.6
ExpAuto
xx
All
33.6
34.4
49.1
38.8
34.9
42.4
50.2
61.2
52.4
40.8
41.6
38.2
43.4
Auto
xx
All
30.4
9.2
37.3
21.9
35.9
42.4
50.5
61.6
51.5
37.9
 
 
38.1
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-5.2
-1.3
-5.5
21.0
12.1
-2.3
0.6
-14.8
-2.9
1.5
-0.2
 
0.4
Klein
28.5
7.3
32.9
13.3
37.3
14.6
20.8
47.6
8.2
20.0
9.8
 
24.9
NNet
-3.5
-2.8
18.8
20.8
29.9
15.6
27.6
40.4
23.1
15.0
2.0
 
17.8
GFSM
00
Analogs
13.7
5.8
23.9
16.6
29.7
15.5
28.6
33.1
9.7
21.3
19.5
4.8
18.7
Klein
20.6
6.4
29.4
13.1
31.4
12.3
20.4
44.9
33.2
17.2
18.2
15.1
22.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
19.7
19.7
37.7
38.7
28.4
38.2
44.1
57.4
48.4
35.2
27.8
32.6
35.9
GFSM
06
Analogs
14.4
8.4
24.7
17.4
30.1
14.3
29.5
34.9
15.8
24.6
18.2
6.5
20.2
Klein
21.2
6.3
31.9
11.3
30.9
12.0
21.2
45.8
31.5
19.8
19.0
17.4
22.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
24.9
20.8
37.9
39.6
29.1
37.7
46.0
57.0
48.1
33.9
23.2
33.2
36.0
GFSM
12
Analogs
15.2
7.1
25.6
24.8
31.8
13.6
22.4
29.4
15.1
22.3
16.7
6.8
19.3
Klein
20.1
6.0
25.6
14.6
27.9
6.3
12.6
40.7
28.4
16.2
16.1
17.8
19.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
21.3
21.2
39.4
41.5
32.2
40.0
47.6
59.7
50.5
36.2
31.1
32.9
37.8
GFSM
18
Analogs
14.4
8.1
24.0
24.7
31.4
12.5
23.6
32.1
9.7
23.3
12.8
6.6
18.7
Klein
21.1
6.2
27.2
15.0
30.0
8.9
16.7
46.1
27.3
16.1
16.1
18.1
20.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
23.5
21.7
38.6
42.8
33.0
39.3
49.0
59.3
47.8
34.0
24.2
32.9
37.3
GFSM
xx
Analogs
15.6
5.7
22.6
17.2
28.9
16.6
28.0
33.6
11.0
23.8
16.8
5.0
19.0
Klein
21.6
6.6
30.6
13.1
30.9
12.5
21.1
46.0
32.9
17.2
18.2
15.9
22.5
Klein_Prob
22.9
6.7
34.1
14.3
30.8
13.6
21.6
48.4
36.4
20.4
22.6
18.2
24.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
32.3
29.9
44.3
43.1
39.8
38.2
47.7
56.9
42.4
38.7
32.8
33.8
40.2
Uncal_Temp
27.4
13.8
24.0
20.8
33.4
32.5
35.1
53.9
22.8
6.9
11.1
20.4
25.4
ECMM
00
Analogs
19.4
9.5
23.2
18.1
29.8
18.4
29.0
29.7
10.5
12.3
21.4
5.3
19.1
Klein
27.8
8.4
27.7
16.0
35.8
19.1
17.6
40.0
35.0
20.3
24.9
16.9
24.5
Klein_Prob
28.9
9.1
32.8
16.0
35.3
19.7
19.4
42.6
39.5
21.0
28.2
17.7
26.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
35.1
36.1
46.5
38.4
41.7
40.4
43.9
59.6
50.1
40.5
43.4
40.6
43.0
Uncal_Temp
30.4
32.5
39.4
27.3
34.9
32.8
31.5
49.8
27.8
22.4
28.0
31.2
32.4
ECMM
12
Analogs
14.8
7.8
23.7
24.3
29.6
18.4
26.2
32.6
15.2
18.4
22.7
6.9
20.2
Klein
26.5
6.7
28.3
18.8
34.2
18.5
14.6
38.5
35.6
18.6
25.1
18.2
23.9
Klein_Prob
30.3
6.8
32.1
20.8
33.6
19.6
16.2
41.5
40.0
19.4
28.0
19.4
26.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
37.8
38.2
47.9
42.9
45.7
42.4
47.2
60.7
53.5
44.1
43.7
42.0
45.4
Uncal_Temp
34.2
25.9
35.2
25.8
36.6
29.7
30.2
49.4
25.8
18.1
27.6
29.7
30.7
CANM
00
Analogs
10.9
9.6
25.0
18.4
24.5
11.4
26.7
30.8
9.1
18.7
17.2
6.0
17.5
Klein
17.5
7.8
21.1
21.7
30.7
17.4
23.9
39.2
38.3
25.7
20.3
17.5
23.7
Klein_Prob
19.5
7.0
24.9
22.7
32.7
18.0
24.9
42.8
41.4
28.9
24.0
18.7
25.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
12.9
5.4
22.6
15.6
27.5
9.6
21.1
21.6
10.1
17.3
14.1
6.9
15.8
Klein
18.8
5.7
19.7
18.9
29.5
16.7
18.8
32.3
39.2
21.2
17.8
17.8
21.6
Klein_Prob
22.5
4.2
21.2
19.4
29.8
16.6
20.2
36.2
41.6
23.9
23.3
18.7
23.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
8.4
6.5
19.5
16.1
28.7
18.4
27.6
35.2
10.7
16.8
5.7
4.0
16.8
Klein
18.1
5.8
26.4
12.0
30.9
9.6
17.9
42.0
31.5
12.7
18.7
10.4
20.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
14.9
5.8
16.5
23.2
26.0
11.8
31.2
33.0
13.7
16.0
7.8
7.2
17.4
Klein
20.2
5.3
27.9
16.4
31.1
9.8
21.0
40.7
33.9
19.1
19.2
15.8
22.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
11.8
5.8
24.2
22.6
28.6
13.0
28.6
30.1
11.8
19.5
15.2
6.5
18.2
Klein
16.3
7.3
30.7
17.4
30.9
8.3
15.3
38.3
29.5
16.4
22.4
16.2
20.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
13.3
4.1
20.8
18.2
33.0
16.7
28.6
30.9
8.8
23.7
14.9
4.0
18.3
Klein
17.3
8.5
26.3
16.5
35.8
11.6
22.7
39.1
30.2
16.8
17.8
18.0
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
15.8
5.9
15.4
17.8
29.9
25.2
27.4
29.2
10.5
15.2
16.8
5.4
17.9
Klein
27.2
9.7
24.9
19.5
33.4
20.9
18.5
36.3
28.7
16.7
23.8
14.1
23.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
13.9
8.5
20.4
21.4
30.4
21.4
21.9
30.3
14.9
16.6
19.6
6.0
19.0
Klein
23.9
8.6
31.1
23.7
30.5
17.9
14.6
36.2
31.3
17.2
23.3
15.2
23.0
NNet