D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Dec 18
Jan 19
Feb 19
Mar 19
Apr 19
May 19
Jun 19
Jul 19
Aug 19
Sep 19
Oct 19
Nov 19
Official
xx
All
55.1
22.0
52.4
39.4
28.6
40.5
49.2
44.0
34.3
63.2
48.5
49.0
43.5
ExpAuto
xx
All
55.7
29.7
52.6
36.6
33.3
35.3
 
29.4
30.5
 
 
82.0
40.1
Auto
xx
All
57.4
29.6
50.5
36.1
33.5
40.2
44.2
43.1
31.2
60.5
43.6
47.9
43.0
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
25.1
23.3
28.9
34.9
6.8
17.0
12.0
6.8
1.6
9.1
18.0
27.2
17.4
Klein
16.7
24.1
49.4
31.6
12.2
26.4
28.3
10.8
6.7
14.5
16.8
23.2
21.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
29.1
23.2
30.6
37.9
3.6
20.7
11.8
4.7
2.0
9.8
21.1
23.3
18.2
Klein
16.1
26.6
50.4
36.2
13.9
26.9
31.2
12.5
6.0
16.7
16.7
21.3
22.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
18.8
18.8
32.4
31.3
5.3
19.6
11.1
7.5
-4.3
4.2
13.9
22.6
14.9
Klein
10.2
23.6
49.2
24.1
11.8
28.7
24.3
9.0
6.1
13.2
13.3
17.8
18.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
19.2
21.4
30.5
29.5
6.3
21.3
11.3
7.5
-1.8
4.6
16.4
26.9
15.9
Klein
7.9
24.9
50.5
24.6
12.5
27.7
25.9
10.2
5.7
12.3
13.0
19.2
19.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
27.3
20.5
29.8
36.2
1.1
18.7
10.9
1.2
-0.4
6.4
18.5
27.5
16.4
Klein
16.7
25.4
49.8
33.4
10.8
26.6
29.6
10.5
6.8
12.7
18.4
22.0
21.5
Klein_Prob
19.8
25.4
51.6
30.3
14.1
28.1
31.4
13.6
9.0
20.9
20.0
23.4
23.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
43.9
30.9
48.3
43.0
27.9
36.8
40.0
37.4
35.5
64.6
42.7
44.2
41.2
Uncal_Temp
29.6
23.5
43.5
26.2
6.9
26.8
29.4
19.4
11.8
39.0
26.6
37.4
26.5
ECMM
00
Analogs
39.7
30.6
32.2
33.9
12.6
24.4
11.6
12.6
3.2
17.1
19.6
30.0
22.2
Klein
22.8
28.1
49.2
35.2
16.9
30.0
32.9
12.4
8.9
25.8
27.3
29.0
26.1
Klein_Prob
26.9
29.8
51.3
32.5
16.7
31.8
33.9
15.6
10.6
31.0
28.4
28.8
27.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
51.2
34.3
50.0
45.4
38.3
45.0
47.0
45.2
46.6
65.2
45.2
50.8
46.9
Uncal_Temp
41.2
20.5
42.3
27.5
12.3
33.4
29.2
23.9
23.1
52.8
38.9
48.4
32.6
ECMM
12
Analogs
37.1
28.1
34.3
32.3
11.0
31.0
14.3
9.4
1.9
18.7
19.6
26.6
21.9
Klein
16.2
30.9
49.6
31.9
16.2
30.5
31.7
9.2
7.0
24.3
22.6
24.5
24.1
Klein_Prob
19.6
30.9
51.1
28.6
17.1
32.9
32.0
14.0
9.6
29.6
22.8
24.8
25.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
54.0
38.3
53.9
51.0
37.5
47.7
50.2
44.5
48.6
67.2
46.6
51.7
49.3
Uncal_Temp
39.2
23.2
42.5
27.4
9.3
32.2
26.8
20.1
18.0
49.5
38.5
44.2
30.8
CANM
00
Analogs
25.4
15.7
33.3
31.1
12.4
20.6
4.1
9.6
2.2
11.2
26.6
28.3
18.3
Klein
24.7
27.1
51.0
25.4
14.6
20.1
27.6
7.4
9.8
9.2
19.9
26.8
21.4
Klein_Prob
27.2
27.1
52.4
24.5
16.4
23.7
29.3
12.5
13.8
14.8
20.4
28.7
23.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
13.4
20.2
32.5
22.9
11.1
19.6
6.6
12.4
2.6
10.5
19.8
21.7
16.0
Klein
14.8
26.9
51.5
15.9
10.9
20.9
26.4
6.6
6.5
9.6
14.6
19.8
18.1
Klein_Prob
15.2
25.9
51.7
14.8
11.7
22.9
26.6
12.0
9.5
15.0
13.0
17.1
19.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
26.1
30.7
26.4
33.1
6.7
20.3
9.0
8.7
-6.4
3.1
18.9
23.7
16.4
Klein
17.5
25.6
44.3
28.1
17.1
25.8
27.1
13.0
4.9
18.2
18.2
24.5
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
32.7
29.4
28.6
35.7
10.6
18.2
10.5
3.1
-7.1
9.2
15.2
21.7
17.2
Klein
19.9
29.8
41.3
25.9
17.1
26.1
24.3
7.0
3.9
11.5
11.1
24.3
19.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
23.0
25.1
29.6
35.3
8.4
23.9
10.8
7.8
-2.4
13.2
15.2
23.6
17.3
Klein
13.3
24.2
46.2
25.4
17.5
25.9
23.8
11.2
3.6
15.0
10.2
26.0
19.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
19.4
23.3
32.5
26.9
8.9
17.6
10.2
5.8
-1.6
7.1
13.8
22.8
15.3
Klein
15.0
27.3
40.8
18.4
16.0
29.3
24.8
6.6
8.2
13.7
7.4
22.3
18.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
37.6
22.9
32.3
35.1
4.2
19.2
9.6
7.7
3.1
16.1
14.8
25.2
19.0
Klein
23.8
28.3
43.4
33.6
14.7
29.4
27.1
16.1
9.2
30.0
24.9
21.8
24.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
32.4
28.1
30.5
36.7
5.3
20.4
13.2
8.2
2.8
13.2
17.4
21.4
18.9
Klein
19.7
27.0
44.0
29.8
16.6
27.4
25.2
17.7
7.2
27.8
25.3
18.0
23.4
NNet