D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
Official
xx
All
48.5
19.9
34.4
28.8
44.6
31.0
41.5
36.3
49.5
63.3
49.8
43.5
41.3
ExpAuto
xx
All
46.2
23.2
33.6
34.4
49.1
38.8
34.9
42.4
50.2
61.2
52.4
40.8
42.5
Auto
xx
All
32.6
14.1
30.4
9.2
37.3
21.9
35.9
42.4
50.5
61.6
51.5
37.9
35.7
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-3.8
2.2
-5.2
-1.3
-5.5
21.0
12.1
-2.3
0.6
-14.8
-2.9
1.5
0.1
Klein
27.0
17.4
28.5
7.3
32.9
13.3
37.3
14.6
20.8
47.6
8.2
20.0
24.6
NNet
15.7
13.1
-3.5
-2.8
18.8
20.8
29.9
15.6
27.6
40.4
23.1
15.0
17.4
GFSM
00
Analogs
15.5
9.3
13.7
5.8
23.9
16.6
29.7
15.5
28.6
33.1
9.7
21.3
18.8
Klein
14.8
13.6
20.6
6.4
29.4
13.1
31.4
12.3
20.4
44.9
33.2
17.2
21.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
33.9
15.2
19.7
19.7
37.7
38.7
28.4
38.2
44.1
57.4
48.4
35.2
34.9
GFSM
06
Analogs
11.4
10.0
14.4
8.4
24.7
17.4
30.1
14.3
29.5
34.9
15.8
24.6
19.9
Klein
16.0
15.9
21.2
6.3
31.9
11.3
30.9
12.0
21.2
45.8
31.5
19.8
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
35.1
13.5
24.9
20.8
37.9
39.6
29.1
37.7
46.0
57.0
48.1
33.9
35.4
GFSM
12
Analogs
12.0
13.1
15.2
7.1
25.6
24.8
31.8
13.6
22.4
29.4
15.1
22.3
19.5
Klein
11.6
13.4
20.1
6.0
25.6
14.6
27.9
6.3
12.6
40.7
28.4
16.2
18.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
35.6
16.5
21.3
21.2
39.4
41.5
32.2
40.0
47.6
59.7
50.5
36.2
36.7
GFSM
18
Analogs
13.8
10.6
14.4
8.1
24.0
24.7
31.4
12.5
23.6
32.1
9.7
23.3
19.2
Klein
13.8
14.2
21.1
6.2
27.2
15.0
30.0
8.9
16.7
46.1
27.3
16.1
20.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
34.6
16.0
23.5
21.7
38.6
42.8
33.0
39.3
49.0
59.3
47.8
34.0
36.6
GFSM
xx
Analogs
13.1
10.8
15.6
5.7
22.6
17.2
28.9
16.6
28.0
33.6
11.0
23.8
19.2
Klein
15.5
14.9
21.6
6.6
30.6
13.1
30.9
12.5
21.1
46.0
32.9
17.2
22.2
Klein_Prob
20.5
16.4
22.9
6.7
34.1
14.3
30.8
13.6
21.6
48.4
36.4
20.4
24.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
45.8
29.2
32.3
29.9
44.3
43.1
39.8
38.2
47.7
56.9
42.4
38.7
40.9
Uncal_Temp
11.4
2.9
27.4
13.8
24.0
20.8
33.4
32.5
35.1
53.9
22.8
6.9
24.1
ECMM
00
Analogs
13.2
7.7
19.4
9.5
23.2
18.1
29.8
18.4
29.0
29.7
10.5
12.3
18.6
Klein
20.5
22.2
27.8
8.4
27.7
16.0
35.8
19.1
17.6
40.0
35.0
20.3
24.5
Klein_Prob
24.8
21.6
28.9
9.1
32.8
16.0
35.3
19.7
19.4
42.6
39.5
21.0
26.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
50.2
27.5
35.1
36.1
46.5
38.4
41.7
40.4
43.9
59.6
50.1
40.5
42.5
Uncal_Temp
20.7
18.2
30.4
32.5
39.4
27.3
34.9
32.8
31.5
49.8
27.8
22.4
30.8
ECMM
12
Analogs
14.9
7.3
14.8
7.8
23.7
24.3
29.6
18.4
26.2
32.6
15.2
18.4
19.7
Klein
20.7
21.3
26.5
6.7
28.3
18.8
34.2
18.5
14.6
38.5
35.6
18.6
23.8
Klein_Prob
25.0
21.1
30.3
6.8
32.1
20.8
33.6
19.6
16.2
41.5
40.0
19.4
25.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
53.5
26.5
37.8
38.2
47.9
42.9
45.7
42.4
47.2
60.7
53.5
44.1
45.0
Uncal_Temp
19.7
13.3
34.2
25.9
35.2
25.8
36.6
29.7
30.2
49.4
25.8
18.1
28.8
CANM
00
Analogs
14.9
13.0
10.9
9.6
25.0
18.4
24.5
11.4
26.7
30.8
9.1
18.7
17.8
Klein
19.2
17.8
17.5
7.8
21.1
21.7
30.7
17.4
23.9
39.2
38.3
25.7
23.6
Klein_Prob
22.2
18.8
19.5
7.0
24.9
22.7
32.7
18.0
24.9
42.8
41.4
28.9
25.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
9.3
13.2
12.9
5.4
22.6
15.6
27.5
9.6
21.1
21.6
10.1
17.3
15.8
Klein
15.3
18.1
18.8
5.7
19.7
18.9
29.5
16.7
18.8
32.3
39.2
21.2
21.4
Klein_Prob
17.6
19.2
22.5
4.2
21.2
19.4
29.8
16.6
20.2
36.2
41.6
23.9
22.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
11.2
7.3
8.4
6.5
19.5
16.1
28.7
18.4
27.6
35.2
10.7
16.8
17.6
Klein
20.1
12.0
18.1
5.8
26.4
12.0
30.9
9.6
17.9
42.0
31.5
12.7
20.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
10.4
11.7
14.9
5.8
16.5
23.2
26.0
11.8
31.2
33.0
13.7
16.0
18.1
Klein
22.8
13.0
20.2
5.3
27.9
16.4
31.1
9.8
21.0
40.7
33.9
19.1
22.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
9.0
7.6
11.8
5.8
24.2
22.6
28.6
13.0
28.6
30.1
11.8
19.5
17.9
Klein
16.7
10.2
16.3
7.3
30.7
17.4
30.9
8.3
15.3
38.3
29.5
16.4
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
13.8
10.8
13.3
4.1
20.8
18.2
33.0
16.7
28.6
30.9
8.8
23.7
18.8
Klein
22.1
12.1
17.3
8.5
26.3
16.5
35.8
11.6
22.7
39.1
30.2
16.8
21.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
11.1
4.4
15.8
5.9
15.4
17.8
29.9
25.2
27.4
29.2
10.5
15.2
17.6
Klein
21.0
14.4
27.2
9.7
24.9
19.5
33.4
20.9
18.5
36.3
28.7
16.7
22.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
15.7
7.3
13.9
8.5
20.4
21.4
30.4
21.4
21.9
30.3
14.9
16.6
18.8
Klein
24.9
14.2
23.9
8.6
31.1
23.7
30.5
17.9
14.6
36.2
31.3
17.2
23.0
NNet