D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Official
xx
All
40.0
25.3
26.8
24.7
41.5
36.0
32.7
10.4
48.5
44.0
60.9
44.5
36.5
ExpAuto
xx
All
37.5
39.8
19.6
49.1
51.3
61.0
46.1
44.6
Auto
xx
All
41.9
27.8
23.2
29.4
42.7
21.1
32.7
8.5
34.8
50.0
52.7
81.6
33.8
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
-3.1
-1.4
6.3
0.9
-12.7
-3.5
-6.8
5.2
6.1
-6.7
-8.5
0.8
-2.1
Klein
30.2
27.4
23.4
28.1
19.3
18.1
17.4
6.2
27.4
38.1
34.3
34.8
25.5
NNet
17.1
15.1
6.7
7.1
12.1
11.1
26.4
5.5
19.5
26.6
27.6
26.2
16.9
GFSM
00
Analogs
12.7
9.5
11.6
11.7
11.5
1.3
14.9
10.5
24.0
37.2
20.7
27.5
16.0
Klein
21.0
16.6
18.6
18.0
8.2
7.1
12.9
14.0
23.3
31.1
31.4
25.5
18.9
NNet
16.1
7.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
13.4
NAEFS
34.8
26.4
25.5
21.5
41.3
38.5
29.3
9.4
39.9
37.7
56.0
37.0
33.1
GFSM
06
Analogs
12.0
10.6
11.0
11.6
10.0
3.7
24.1
14.1
24.1
36.0
17.2
30.0
17.0
Klein
20.3
16.9
21.5
19.4
11.5
8.6
14.4
7.6
22.9
30.0
30.2
26.6
19.2
NNet
17.0
5.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
13.4
NAEFS
30.9
23.4
25.1
24.3
35.0
27.7
25.5
6.1
45.8
 
 
30.7
27.5
GFSM
12
Analogs
12.7
9.6
10.0
9.6
9.2
-1.3
13.7
14.6
19.9
32.7
14.9
23.9
14.3
Klein
13.2
15.5
14.8
18.3
10.3
3.6
6.6
6.9
16.1
27.0
23.6
19.4
14.5
NNet
12.5
4.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10.1
NAEFS
36.0
29.4
27.4
23.2
43.9
40.0
30.9
11.0
41.6
39.4
56.8
36.1
34.6
GFSM
18
Analogs
7.2
11.8
15.6
7.1
7.7
-1.8
14.7
15.9
23.2
32.2
12.6
21.9
14.2
Klein
12.7
14.9
16.8
16.0
9.8
5.0
9.1
7.4
19.0
27.2
20.2
22.5
15.0
NNet
13.6
2.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10.2
NAEFS
30.4
24.9
26.8
26.5
41.7
37.5
27.0
13.2
40.8
43.4
54.6
34.9
33.4
GFSM
xx
Analogs
14.1
8.5
12.0
12.9
12.3
1.4
17.9
13.2
22.6
37.9
18.4
26.6
16.5
Klein
20.6
17.5
19.5
19.6
9.6
8.6
13.3
11.2
23.5
30.8
31.0
26.6
19.3
Klein_Prob
24.3
17.9
22.4
25.6
15.9
10.3
14.6
10.2
24.9
31.7
32.4
27.7
21.6
NNet
18.2
6.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14.7
NNet_Prob
13.2
5.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10.8
Cal_Temp
39.5
27.2
32.3
28.2
43.2
41.1
35.9
23.6
45.0
40.6
54.9
40.9
37.7
Uncal_Temp
29.3
19.1
19.9
14.0
19.5
20.0
16.4
18.3
33.3
37.0
46.5
29.0
25.3
ECMM
00
Analogs
15.5
12.2
9.9
12.1
12.4
5.7
28.0
12.9
26.6
36.7
20.9
34.7
19.1
Klein
26.1
27.2
19.2
18.4
16.0
9.3
21.7
3.4
23.0
35.5
32.1
33.0
22.1
Klein_Prob
27.9
28.8
21.3
23.9
22.2
11.8
24.1
3.5
23.9
39.2
33.9
33.9
24.6
NNet
15.8
14.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
15.3
NNet_Prob
14.1
10.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12.9
Cal_Temp
36.1
42.6
24.5
46.4
46.7
51.0
43.8
42.5
Uncal_Temp
40.2
35.4
19.6
35.0
39.2
46.0
30.7
35.0
ECMM
12
Analogs
21.1
11.4
9.0
11.2
15.0
5.5
24.2
13.8
26.2
39.4
19.6
29.6
18.9
Klein
24.9
24.5
18.3
15.2
17.3
6.9
18.3
-1.3
23.3
38.0
31.5
29.3
20.5
Klein_Prob
27.3
28.1
19.1
20.9
22.8
8.3
21.2
0.6
23.4
39.9
32.8
29.7
22.9
NNet
14.1
3.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10.8
NNet_Prob
14.5
5.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11.8
Cal_Temp
33.0
42.7
27.3
47.1
50.0
52.0
43.9
43.5
Uncal_Temp
34.6
32.4
21.1
31.9
43.0
45.9
30.3
34.4
CANM
00
Analogs
12.0
13.3
9.6
12.4
11.3
4.4
25.2
12.7
19.8
33.0
15.6
28.2
16.5
Klein
16.8
20.6
20.3
17.9
10.7
5.4
15.9
9.4
18.1
34.1
24.8
27.2
18.5
Klein_Prob
19.2
33.4
 
 
 
11.6
17.8
6.7
17.7
35.7
27.0
25.9
21.0
NNet
14.7
9.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
13.1
NNet_Prob
12.5
7.5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10.8
CANM
12
Analogs
14.5
10.8
14.7
10.5
9.3
3.3
21.0
13.8
15.5
34.3
10.0
22.4
15.2
Klein
13.5
17.4
18.1
15.0
9.2
1.8
12.8
7.1
9.6
30.7
17.3
20.8
14.5
Klein_Prob
15.9
27.5
 
 
 
6.0
15.0
6.3
10.6
33.7
19.2
21.9
16.8
NNet
14.5
2.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10.4
NNet_Prob
8.8
4.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7.2
GFS
00
Analogs
14.4
11.0
9.0
16.6
9.8
2.9
20.4
9.2
22.2
34.2
20.0
32.0
17.0
Klein
22.6
20.1
18.2
21.5
13.5
8.8
14.3
1.4
23.4
27.8
29.2
22.8
18.6
NNet
13.2
1.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9.7
GFS
06
Analogs
14.8
7.8
15.7
9.7
12.1
5.5
22.1
9.5
22.9
35.6
21.3
29.9
17.4
Klein
17.8
18.4
19.1
23.9
15.0
9.1
14.6
3.0
24.9
31.3
30.9
26.8
19.6
NNet
13.7
6.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11.5
GFS
12
Analogs
13.1
10.7
10.7
12.7
12.1
7.5
16.6
2.7
19.3
35.0
20.2
26.6
15.8
Klein
16.8
17.3
17.7
21.3
14.0
10.7
10.3
-1.5
18.2
28.4
28.9
25.8
17.4
NNet
9.5
2.7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7.4
GFS
18
Analogs
14.0
13.1
11.1
15.9
11.3
10.9
12.9
15.1
13.8
32.6
18.1
28.9
16.7
Klein
14.4
15.6
18.0
17.7
18.6
11.3
12.2
5.0
18.0
30.8
27.7
27.9
18.1
NNet
8.7
-5.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4.7
ECM
00
Analogs
15.6
11.2
4.7
10.9
12.4
4.2
29.4
10.6
23.5
30.7
22.4
31.3
17.2
Klein
25.4
23.9
15.2
21.5
20.2
10.7
23.1
2.5
19.1
35.4
29.4
27.1
21.1
NNet
15.7
13.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14.8
ECM
12
Analogs
16.8
15.0
6.7
12.6
16.0
2.5
27.7
11.5
23.6
30.9
21.3
30.9
18.0
Klein
22.4
22.6
14.4
20.2
20.4
6.7
18.0
-1.8
18.0
34.3
27.6
24.1
19.1
NNet
13.4
2.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10.0