D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Official
xx
All
24.7
41.5
36.0
32.7
10.4
48.5
44.0
60.9
44.5
27.5
48.5
19.9
36.8
ExpAuto
xx
All
37.5
39.8
19.6
49.1
51.3
61.0
46.1
27.2
46.2
23.2
40.5
Auto
xx
All
29.4
42.7
21.1
32.7
8.5
42.7
50.8
52.7
51.5
26.8
32.6
14.1
33.7
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
0.9
-12.7
-3.5
-6.8
5.2
6.1
-6.7
-8.5
0.8
1.2
-3.8
2.2
-2.3
Klein
28.1
19.3
18.1
17.4
6.2
27.4
38.1
34.3
34.8
18.1
27.0
17.4
23.9
NNet
7.1
12.1
11.1
26.4
5.5
19.5
26.6
27.6
26.2
13.3
15.7
13.1
17.1
GFSM
00
Analogs
11.7
11.5
1.3
14.9
10.5
24.0
37.2
20.7
27.5
6.2
15.5
9.3
15.8
Klein
18.0
8.2
7.1
12.9
14.0
23.3
31.1
31.4
25.5
13.3
14.8
13.6
17.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
21.5
41.3
38.5
29.3
9.4
39.9
37.7
56.0
37.0
16.2
33.9
15.2
31.3
GFSM
06
Analogs
11.6
10.0
3.7
24.1
14.1
24.1
36.0
17.2
30.0
7.0
11.4
10.0
16.5
Klein
19.4
11.5
8.6
14.4
7.6
22.9
30.0
30.2
26.6
13.2
16.0
15.9
18.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
24.3
35.0
27.7
25.5
6.1
45.8
 
 
30.7
-8.3
35.1
13.5
24.1
GFSM
12
Analogs
9.6
9.2
-1.3
13.7
14.6
19.9
32.7
14.9
23.9
1.9
12.0
13.1
13.9
Klein
18.3
10.3
3.6
6.6
6.9
16.1
27.0
23.6
19.4
9.6
11.6
13.4
13.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
23.2
43.9
40.0
30.9
11.0
41.6
39.4
56.8
36.1
20.4
35.6
16.5
32.8
GFSM
18
Analogs
7.1
7.7
-1.8
14.7
15.9
23.2
32.2
12.6
21.9
4.4
13.8
10.6
13.7
Klein
16.0
9.8
5.0
9.1
7.4
19.0
27.2
20.2
22.5
9.4
13.8
14.2
14.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
26.5
41.7
37.5
27.0
13.2
40.8
43.4
54.6
34.9
17.7
34.6
16.0
32.2
GFSM
xx
Analogs
12.9
12.3
1.4
17.9
13.2
22.6
37.9
18.4
26.6
7.0
13.1
10.8
16.2
Klein
19.6
9.6
8.6
13.3
11.2
23.5
30.8
31.0
26.6
12.8
15.5
14.9
18.2
Klein_Prob
25.6
15.9
10.3
14.6
10.2
24.9
31.7
32.4
27.7
14.4
20.5
16.4
20.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
28.2
43.2
41.1
35.9
23.6
45.0
40.6
54.9
40.9
29.4
45.8
29.2
38.1
Uncal_Temp
14.0
19.5
20.0
16.4
18.3
33.3
37.0
46.5
29.0
9.0
11.4
2.9
21.5
ECMM
00
Analogs
12.1
12.4
5.7
28.0
12.9
26.6
36.7
20.9
34.7
13.0
13.2
7.7
18.8
Klein
18.4
16.0
9.3
21.7
3.4
23.0
35.5
32.1
33.0
21.2
20.5
22.2
21.4
Klein_Prob
23.9
22.2
11.8
24.1
3.5
23.9
39.2
33.9
33.9
21.5
24.8
21.6
23.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
36.1
42.6
24.5
46.4
46.7
51.0
43.8
32.7
50.2
27.5
40.8
Uncal_Temp
40.2
35.4
19.6
35.0
39.2
46.0
30.7
16.4
20.7
18.2
29.7
ECMM
12
Analogs
11.2
15.0
5.5
24.2
13.8
26.2
39.4
19.6
29.6
15.0
14.9
7.3
18.6
Klein
15.2
17.3
6.9
18.3
-1.3
23.3
38.0
31.5
29.3
21.5
20.7
21.3
20.2
Klein_Prob
20.9
22.8
8.3
21.2
0.6
23.4
39.9
32.8
29.7
20.8
25.0
21.1
22.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
33.0
42.7
27.3
47.1
50.0
52.0
43.9
39.8
53.5
26.5
42.4
Uncal_Temp
34.6
32.4
21.1
31.9
43.0
45.9
30.3
19.0
19.7
13.3
29.0
CANM
00
Analogs
12.4
11.3
4.4
25.2
12.7
19.8
33.0
15.6
28.2
7.1
14.9
13.0
16.4
Klein
17.9
10.7
5.4
15.9
9.4
18.1
34.1
24.8
27.2
13.7
19.2
17.8
17.9
Klein_Prob
 
 
11.6
17.8
6.7
17.7
35.7
27.0
25.9
12.8
22.2
18.8
19.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
10.5
9.3
3.3
21.0
13.8
15.5
34.3
10.0
22.4
6.1
9.3
13.2
14.1
Klein
15.0
9.2
1.8
12.8
7.1
9.6
30.7
17.3
20.8
11.4
15.3
18.1
14.1
Klein_Prob
 
 
6.0
15.0
6.3
10.6
33.7
19.2
21.9
14.2
17.6
19.2
16.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
16.6
9.8
2.9
20.4
9.2
22.2
34.2
20.0
32.0
7.6
11.2
7.3
16.4
Klein
21.5
13.5
8.8
14.3
1.4
23.4
27.8
29.2
22.8
10.2
20.1
12.0
17.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
9.7
12.1
5.5
22.1
9.5
22.9
35.6
21.3
29.9
3.9
10.4
11.7
16.5
Klein
23.9
15.0
9.1
14.6
3.0
24.9
31.3
30.9
26.8
11.5
22.8
13.0
18.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
12.7
12.1
7.5
16.6
2.7
19.3
35.0
20.2
26.6
5.9
9.0
7.6
14.8
Klein
21.3
14.0
10.7
10.3
-1.5
18.2
28.4
28.9
25.8
12.7
16.7
10.2
16.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
15.9
11.3
10.9
12.9
15.1
13.8
32.6
18.1
28.9
8.7
13.8
10.8
16.2
Klein
17.7
18.6
11.3
12.2
5.0
18.0
30.8
27.7
27.9
13.8
22.1
12.1
18.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
10.9
12.4
4.2
29.4
10.6
23.5
30.7
22.4
31.3
7.8
11.1
4.4
16.5
Klein
21.5
20.2
10.7
23.1
2.5
19.1
35.4
29.4
27.1
24.1
21.0
14.4
20.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
12.6
16.0
2.5
27.7
11.5
23.6
30.9
21.3
30.9
12.4
15.7
7.3
17.8
Klein
20.2
20.4
6.7
18.0
-1.8
18.0
34.3
27.6
24.1
19.8
24.9
14.2
19.1
NNet