D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
Official
xx
All
39.7
26.0
46.0
23.9
27.1
39.5
29.1
43.1
37.5
35.1
29.9
40.0
34.7
CDC
xx
All
31.4
25.3
48.6
31.7
21.3
21.2
28.6
42.5
26.6
29.3
26.0
28.5
30.1
Auto
xx
All
31.1
14.6
16.7
7.0
16.0
31.4
30.1
32.5
28.6
6.5
13.2
41.0
24.7
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
31.1
4.5
-1.6
-1.6
2.1
-2.7
-6.7
-3.8
2.4
-2.4
-5.0
-3.1
1.4
Klein
26.4
9.3
16.8
0.9
6.2
25.0
25.4
21.9
27.3
29.7
31.8
30.2
21.3
NNet
28.2
2.7
13.8
7.1
1.4
13.6
10.4
33.9
29.8
20.4
10.2
17.1
16.3
GFSM
00
Analogs
27.1
4.4
-8.7
3.5
21.4
20.8
11.9
13.5
13.7
21.4
23.3
12.7
14.1
Klein
16.3
8.4
4.9
-0.1
8.0
21.7
20.3
19.4
14.0
26.7
25.9
21.0
15.8
NNet
25.8
3.4
8.0
-0.6
1.9
13.0
9.4
30.9
26.1
19.9
13.8
16.1
14.5
NAEFS
30.6
22.4
51.4
34.5
23.7
39.8
28.5
33.1
36.1
37.3
34.2
34.8
33.5
GFSM
06
Analogs
24.4
4.1
-9.6
3.1
20.8
20.1
15.7
12.6
12.5
20.1
19.8
12.0
13.3
Klein
18.3
13.7
7.4
0.7
7.7
22.8
21.9
19.0
14.9
28.3
26.9
20.3
17.1
NNet
23.0
3.6
11.2
3.8
0.3
12.0
10.2
31.2
26.9
20.8
13.2
17.0
14.8
NAEFS
27.8
22.7
45.1
31.6
20.6
39.6
32.0
35.9
30.1
33.0
33.4
30.9
31.7
GFSM
12
Analogs
22.6
5.0
-7.1
2.1
18.1
20.8
15.8
7.2
8.6
18.4
19.4
12.7
12.1
Klein
12.8
6.2
6.8
-1.3
8.4
20.7
17.9
10.5
10.8
21.9
24.1
13.2
12.8
NNet
20.7
6.4
6.7
4.9
0.0
15.3
15.0
28.6
26.4
18.1
15.6
12.5
14.5
NAEFS
31.2
24.2
51.4
38.0
25.2
39.5
31.6
34.0
37.7
37.3
35.3
36.0
34.7
GFSM
18
Analogs
25.5
8.3
-8.3
2.9
14.1
20.1
17.6
10.3
5.8
19.2
18.2
7.2
11.8
Klein
16.5
8.9
5.4
0.4
8.0
24.1
20.7
12.3
7.3
21.1
24.6
12.7
13.7
NNet
26.8
7.5
4.8
6.7
0.7
16.8
12.4
28.1
25.1
17.9
14.2
13.6
14.8
NAEFS
33.5
25.8
46.9
34.7
21.8
44.6
32.8
35.8
32.0
33.3
35.0
30.4
33.4
GFSM
xx
Analogs
27.9
3.1
-5.9
2.1
22.4
20.7
14.3
12.1
11.3
21.4
21.6
14.1
14.0
Klein
18.7
9.4
5.7
-0.5
8.8
21.7
20.8
17.2
13.6
28.1
25.8
20.6
16.1
Klein_Prob
22.1
11.8
12.1
0.7
5.6
25.7
26.1
22.7
15.1
30.8
29.0
24.3
19.1
NNet
25.9
3.5
7.6
1.7
1.8
13.5
7.9
32.5
28.9
21.5
14.3
18.2
15.3
NNet_Prob
23.1
6.1
7.8
-1.2
-1.9
11.9
9.3
27.8
26.8
19.0
11.6
13.2
13.2
Cal_Temp
41.9
34.6
57.9
37.5
27.5
44.4
30.9
44.8
39.1
40.0
33.1
39.5
39.2
Uncal_Temp
20.2
16.6
25.1
11.0
12.4
33.3
34.2
38.9
34.1
35.9
30.8
29.3
26.9
ECMM
00
Analogs
33.8
8.4
2.1
4.0
21.3
25.3
19.5
19.2
23.5
23.2
22.5
15.5
18.6
Klein
30.7
9.2
8.4
0.2
11.4
24.7
25.2
25.5
31.5
32.6
33.3
26.1
21.8
Klein_Prob
35.6
12.6
15.0
4.9
12.7
29.3
28.4
26.9
32.7
35.0
35.3
27.9
24.9
NNet
29.8
0.8
16.4
7.9
3.2
14.3
22.3
39.2
36.5
23.4
13.9
15.8
18.8
NNet_Prob
29.7
1.1
17.2
4.0
8.1
10.5
18.6
37.7
35.1
24.8
12.6
14.1
17.9
ECMM
12
Analogs
33.2
11.2
3.4
5.0
17.0
23.0
14.7
20.2
23.1
24.0
24.3
21.1
18.7
Klein
28.7
10.8
6.5
1.1
11.4
24.9
27.2
22.8
29.1
30.9
34.6
24.9
21.2
Klein_Prob
32.6
12.6
13.2
5.9
11.4
28.3
28.7
24.7
29.1
30.2
35.5
27.3
23.4
NNet
31.6
1.6
13.1
5.8
5.6
16.6
23.8
35.8
34.5
21.0
12.7
14.1
18.2
NNet_Prob
28.9
3.5
13.4
2.4
8.2
13.3
21.1
34.4
33.8
22.7
11.5
14.5
17.4
CANM
00
Analogs
28.4
9.6
1.4
1.5
20.9
21.1
18.1
16.7
23.5
17.6
18.8
12.0
16.1
Klein
23.3
11.7
16.9
1.0
10.9
23.6
25.5
24.4
31.8
30.3
26.3
16.8
20.5
Klein_Prob
26.6
12.2
22.2
5.4
12.7
26.6
20.9
29.1
33.0
32.6
28.1
19.2
22.7
NNet
26.1
11.8
24.9
7.5
9.6
10.9
18.6
31.7
31.1
19.1
12.6
14.7
18.4
NNet_Prob
24.1
6.2
18.8
3.2
6.7
10.2
8.0
31.2
30.4
19.9
12.3
12.5
15.8
CANM
12
Analogs
24.9
15.1
2.6
4.1
23.8
15.3
13.5
20.6
14.2
18.3
14.5
14.5
15.2
Klein
21.2
9.9
16.2
-0.5
15.7
24.4
27.7
22.2
25.8
26.3
20.8
13.5
19.0
Klein_Prob
22.3
10.5
22.7
3.7
16.9
27.4
23.2
24.6
25.8
27.4
21.3
15.9
20.5
NNet
28.7
8.1
24.1
2.8
7.1
13.2
18.2
31.6
26.7
15.1
15.4
14.5
17.6
NNet_Prob
27.8
4.8
15.9
2.1
10.8
11.2
8.2
32.0
27.0
17.7
13.7
8.8
15.6
GFS
00
Analogs
27.0
9.1
-4.5
-0.3
19.0
12.2
11.5
10.6
13.0
18.1
17.2
14.4
12.7
Klein
21.7
11.5
11.7
0.9
8.9
13.7
14.6
17.1
18.9
25.3
21.1
22.6
15.9
NNet
22.4
5.7
7.6
-6.0
-1.6
6.3
4.0
22.8
25.6
15.0
10.2
13.2
10.8
GFS
06
Analogs
20.2
8.8
-6.6
2.4
16.4
21.4
10.5
9.3
20.3
18.3
22.0
14.8
13.1
Klein
15.8
12.3
4.7
1.6
10.5
20.8
17.6
16.7
15.5
28.6
20.0
17.8
15.2
NNet
14.8
6.5
7.4
0.1
4.1
9.3
5.6
29.2
29.1
21.9
9.1
13.7
12.9
GFS
12
Analogs
23.7
5.5
-7.8
5.1
13.1
12.9
11.9
6.7
17.5
20.1
19.8
13.1
11.7
Klein
20.0
7.8
9.3
5.1
8.9
17.4
9.2
14.9
16.8
26.4
21.4
16.8
14.6
NNet
22.0
-0.6
6.5
3.3
-3.6
12.0
5.2
20.9
24.9
13.9
9.7
9.5
10.6
GFS
18
Analogs
19.8
2.5
-1.0
6.4
11.1
14.2
15.1
3.9
13.6
17.4
21.0
14.0
11.7
Klein
20.2
9.9
9.0
5.8
5.3
17.6
18.3
8.8
12.3
24.3
21.6
14.4
14.1
NNet
25.4
4.9
13.7
3.6
2.7
11.4
14.0
21.7
24.0
16.6
13.2
8.7
13.5
ECM
00
Analogs
24.0
8.4
-0.8
2.8
14.6
15.9
18.6
23.5
22.4
23.6
22.0
15.6
16.0
Klein
28.5
10.6
13.1
5.0
11.0
20.5
20.7
21.3
32.2
30.8
30.0
25.4
20.7
NNet
16.1
-1.7
13.8
8.8
1.9
8.6
13.3
26.4
33.7
25.1
3.7
15.7
13.5
ECM
12
Analogs
28.1
4.8
1.8
2.6
14.0
22.4
20.7
18.4
16.2
22.8
21.7
16.8
15.9
Klein
26.7
9.9
15.3
4.9
9.2
25.7
21.5
20.6
25.4
26.7
24.5
22.4
19.6
NNet
22.9
6.6
10.4
-2.1
4.1
16.4
17.6
27.0
32.7
17.7
7.5
13.4
14.6