D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Feb 16
Mar 16
Apr 16
May 16
Jun 16
Jul 16
Aug 16
Sep 16
Oct 16
Official
xx
All
48.5
62.2
37.8
48.1
49.9
41.6
38.9
42.8
52.9
42.8
42.2
56.6
47.2
ExpAuto
xx
All
48.3
65.4
38.8
52.5
43.5
43.9
35.8
46.3
50.8
43.9
48.9
57.5
47.9
Auto
xx
All
44.9
63.2
41.7
51.7
47.8
47.4
40.4
44.3
53.3
46.5
49.7
59.1
49.1
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
22.3
42.8
17.2
7.8
16.8
19.0
19.6
9.0
10.1
4.0
10.4
20.2
16.9
Klein
23.1
32.1
13.7
21.7
22.3
20.7
25.2
25.5
29.7
12.8
23.8
21.1
23.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
41.6
56.4
24.6
50.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
41.5
GFSM
06
Analogs
25.5
43.8
14.8
5.3
19.1
20.4
18.7
7.6
12.7
0.5
8.0
22.9
17.1
Klein
23.5
30.2
15.8
22.9
21.3
22.5
25.5
28.9
31.4
13.9
21.6
21.6
23.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
41.5
56.5
22.9
50.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
41.0
GFSM
12
Analogs
21.3
44.9
12.3
0.8
21.8
16.7
13.1
10.6
9.0
-0.6
7.8
21.5
15.4
Klein
20.0
23.7
10.7
15.5
20.4
15.0
20.3
26.4
28.2
9.4
17.6
13.7
18.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
42.9
56.7
26.2
57.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
43.0
GFSM
18
Analogs
19.9
44.3
11.1
3.2
22.4
18.1
14.6
6.3
9.6
5.0
6.6
18.4
15.5
Klein
17.8
23.8
10.1
16.6
17.4
18.8
18.7
24.8
29.9
10.8
17.2
14.9
18.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
42.3
56.7
21.8
55.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
41.3
GFSM
xx
Analogs
18.4
46.1
15.8
5.9
18.4
20.9
18.7
6.6
7.2
5.3
10.1
22.8
16.8
Klein
21.3
30.8
15.0
21.5
21.8
20.9
25.8
26.4
29.1
13.2
19.9
19.6
22.7
Klein_Prob
25.5
36.0
14.2
24.1
22.9
25.6
27.1
29.3
34.0
20.0
28.0
29.1
27.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
44.1
63.9
32.7
45.5
49.9
39.7
32.1
44.3
54.8
42.0
43.3
56.7
45.8
Uncal_Temp
26.8
48.0
22.8
23.8
27.7
21.6
28.9
27.2
36.3
23.0
33.8
39.2
30.1
ECMM
00
Analogs
25.6
41.1
22.9
13.3
17.0
16.6
18.2
6.7
14.2
7.1
14.2
32.0
19.4
Klein
27.6
33.1
15.6
21.4
15.3
23.1
28.1
29.6
22.8
8.6
19.3
28.8
23.1
Klein_Prob
31.2
36.0
16.0
26.3
14.8
26.6
28.8
33.0
27.5
12.5
26.0
35.6
26.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
40.0
58.0
38.8
48.0
47.6
48.1
39.5
50.9
53.8
44.6
46.9
59.9
48.1
Uncal_Temp
38.5
49.4
25.9
35.4
30.4
29.2
31.1
32.8
41.0
32.8
41.2
49.8
36.5
ECMM
12
Analogs
24.8
43.3
22.7
15.8
16.4
14.9
21.9
9.4
17.7
8.2
12.6
31.9
20.0
Klein
24.6
29.1
14.8
20.1
13.5
21.8
27.1
30.4
25.1
7.1
19.9
26.9
22.0
Klein_Prob
28.7
32.0
14.3
23.9
14.8
26.8
27.2
33.5
29.9
10.5
26.4
33.5
25.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
42.8
63.7
42.9
49.9
51.8
52.8
40.2
52.4
56.4
47.0
49.5
59.9
50.8
Uncal_Temp
36.2
46.5
27.0
32.8
30.1
28.5
32.9
27.5
38.2
27.6
39.0
45.7
34.3
CANM
00
Analogs
25.4
39.9
13.8
5.8
19.7
15.4
18.2
10.9
13.8
-0.0
17.3
17.6
16.9
Klein
20.2
32.0
14.4
22.3
29.6
22.1
23.5
29.2
18.2
1.3
19.0
18.6
21.2
Klein_Prob
24.1
36.1
14.6
28.6
28.7
24.6
26.2
33.1
23.3
4.4
24.7
25.3
24.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
21.6
38.4
10.7
8.1
23.9
15.2
15.4
13.7
12.4
0.8
10.6
21.4
16.1
Klein
18.7
24.5
11.8
18.1
26.9
17.1
18.8
26.2
14.8
-0.2
11.1
15.9
17.3
Klein_Prob
21.5
29.2
12.1
23.0
26.4
18.5
19.3
29.1
20.6
1.5
16.7
22.3
20.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
23.2
42.6
18.4
4.5
14.6
13.3
19.8
7.0
10.3
7.7
12.2
22.7
16.5
Klein
21.4
33.9
8.7
16.1
15.5
16.4
25.3
24.4
30.0
14.0
25.9
21.0
21.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
22.5
39.0
22.5
6.4
16.6
16.6
18.6
6.5
7.2
2.2
9.5
16.9
15.6
Klein
19.6
31.5
14.2
20.4
18.2
17.1
26.5
27.1
28.6
13.8
21.5
18.8
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
21.9
40.5
14.6
4.8
19.2
13.5
17.2
10.2
11.3
4.5
8.9
11.0
15.1
Klein
21.3
26.3
6.4
18.1
19.5
12.6
17.0
26.8
29.0
11.9
22.8
16.9
19.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
26.2
36.9
11.5
2.4
19.4
17.6
14.4
12.1
7.6
7.2
10.6
16.7
15.8
Klein
19.9
23.7
7.0
21.0
21.2
16.1
18.8
24.8
28.2
15.1
24.7
20.1
20.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
26.9
38.4
18.1
15.7
23.0
10.6
20.0
8.1
14.3
9.4
10.0
17.3
17.7
Klein
28.7
29.0
11.4
18.4
18.6
21.6
26.3
25.5
25.9
12.1
20.9
22.0
22.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
29.1
41.3
20.1
13.8
27.6
11.6
20.7
6.0
13.9
8.6
8.3
18.3
18.2
Klein
26.0
25.2
11.6
17.5
13.5
18.5
24.9
24.2
24.6
7.1
20.2
20.2
19.8
NNet