D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Feb 17
Mar 17
Apr 17
May 17
Jun 17
Jul 17
Aug 17
Sep 17
Oct 17
Nov 17
Dec 17
Jan 18
Official
xx
All
55.1
34.6
40.4
28.0
30.9
36.4
29.1
59.8
50.3
37.5
46.4
37.5
40.6
ExpAuto
xx
All
56.0
37.8
42.2
32.2
36.1
44.5
51.9
38.0
52.4
37.6
52.2
39.5
42.6
Auto
xx
All
58.7
37.8
42.5
32.1
36.1
37.2
31.4
61.7
52.4
37.4
52.2
39.4
43.5
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
5.7
23.0
19.8
11.8
15.1
9.5
12.7
8.8
25.5
11.7
19.9
10.0
14.7
Klein
6.8
25.3
26.3
22.4
17.6
20.4
14.8
28.5
31.1
22.1
8.5
11.4
19.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
9.5
21.0
22.6
13.9
18.5
9.6
13.7
10.7
33.3
9.4
21.4
6.4
16.2
Klein
10.1
23.0
28.0
24.1
19.3
18.6
16.4
28.2
33.3
24.5
11.0
10.4
20.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
5.5
24.9
19.1
15.7
18.7
9.6
16.3
10.4
23.6
13.5
18.0
2.3
15.0
Klein
6.5
20.2
24.2
23.8
14.5
19.2
18.0
28.3
29.3
19.6
6.8
4.5
18.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
1.8
21.1
17.5
15.5
19.6
10.0
13.8
9.6
24.6
12.8
19.1
8.6
14.8
Klein
6.0
17.7
23.9
24.3
16.7
19.7
15.8
27.6
28.3
20.0
6.6
7.3
18.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
6.3
26.8
22.2
11.2
17.6
8.9
13.8
8.0
29.5
10.5
20.8
5.8
15.3
Klein
6.6
22.3
26.5
22.4
17.5
19.2
15.7
27.2
32.2
22.6
9.0
7.5
19.2
Klein_Prob
13.6
27.9
29.7
24.6
21.7
23.0
18.8
33.9
35.7
22.7
13.8
13.3
23.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
48.3
39.4
42.6
33.9
32.7
40.3
35.0
48.9
50.5
33.4
50.3
36.1
41.1
Uncal_Temp
23.7
17.8
17.7
22.9
22.2
27.7
19.2
40.5
38.0
25.8
37.9
23.4
26.5
ECMM
00
Analogs
4.7
25.8
20.0
15.8
16.1
13.8
12.8
15.4
29.2
18.4
24.3
11.5
17.5
Klein
15.9
25.6
32.3
23.2
20.6
16.2
18.2
30.3
33.4
25.2
18.2
5.3
22.3
Klein_Prob
20.5
28.4
34.8
27.8
23.3
18.4
18.6
35.3
34.8
26.2
22.1
9.6
25.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
54.0
42.0
44.1
35.0
35.1
39.9
33.8
57.2
45.2
34.5
52.4
38.6
42.9
Uncal_Temp
34.0
26.0
21.1
22.0
19.1
21.9
14.7
49.0
41.3
30.7
47.3
29.1
29.9
ECMM
12
Analogs
4.4
31.1
19.8
17.6
18.5
10.7
13.8
12.2
29.8
19.7
25.6
7.9
17.7
Klein
17.5
24.3
29.7
28.3
22.6
16.3
20.1
30.4
30.1
23.6
17.9
4.5
22.3
Klein_Prob
22.3
27.6
33.1
30.3
25.2
19.4
20.4
36.2
32.5
25.7
22.5
6.0
25.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
55.5
44.6
47.2
41.3
37.5
42.0
37.1
60.2
50.8
39.7
55.3
40.2
46.1
Uncal_Temp
33.0
28.1
18.9
21.2
14.9
14.2
14.9
46.9
44.1
31.4
45.9
27.7
28.5
CANM
00
Analogs
13.4
22.1
19.8
9.3
21.3
8.4
12.2
20.7
29.9
16.1
9.5
6.4
16.0
Klein
17.2
24.5
25.6
18.2
18.7
14.0
16.5
30.6
24.9
25.6
10.6
4.3
19.5
Klein_Prob
22.6
26.6
28.6
21.7
21.7
16.5
18.1
36.2
28.2
26.0
13.3
7.8
22.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
16.2
19.6
13.8
12.3
19.6
10.2
12.2
14.0
23.6
15.6
6.7
6.9
14.4
Klein
18.0
21.6
26.9
20.1
17.0
15.2
16.4
24.8
22.5
24.2
5.0
-0.9
17.8
Klein_Prob
22.4
24.1
29.8
24.8
18.6
17.1
20.1
31.2
26.7
25.2
9.7
2.5
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
5.4
20.4
19.4
11.9
16.8
8.2
13.4
8.2
25.4
11.0
16.2
11.3
14.2
Klein
15.3
20.4
25.8
21.0
14.8
15.7
15.7
29.0
29.8
22.5
11.6
18.7
20.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
6.5
22.6
15.9
11.8
20.2
8.8
13.1
15.3
27.4
12.6
20.6
9.8
15.6
Klein
18.0
23.4
24.7
23.5
17.9
15.5
15.4
27.4
32.3
25.2
18.6
18.8
22.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
3.7
22.8
17.1
15.9
16.2
6.8
10.2
15.6
22.6
6.0
16.8
11.6
13.8
Klein
18.1
19.9
24.4
23.1
16.6
16.7
17.5
32.5
28.9
18.4
14.1
17.6
20.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
8.8
14.0
20.9
19.0
15.9
7.6
11.7
7.9
25.4
11.5
17.5
14.7
15.0
Klein
18.0
17.3
26.8
26.4
14.1
16.2
17.6
31.4
34.1
21.6
14.1
21.0
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
7.9
28.4
18.5
16.9
17.0
12.6
11.6
10.9
21.4
19.3
19.4
13.8
16.6
Klein
19.4
24.4
29.0
23.5
22.7
13.6
14.8
28.1
25.2
21.4
14.1
16.2
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
-0.9
25.3
8.5
20.2
15.7
11.3
11.6
9.8
24.3
17.9
26.0
10.4
15.3
Klein
17.9
25.7
23.9
29.7
20.3
16.0
18.2
25.8
25.5
17.6
13.7
11.2
20.7
NNet