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HOME > Expert Assessments > Hazards Assessment > Latest Assessment> Hazards Discussion


WEEKLY ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS

Updated June 25, 2007

This product is intended to provide emergency managers, planners, forecasters and the public advance notice of potential threats related to climate, weather and hydrological events. It integrates existing NWS official medium- (3-5) day, extended- (6-10 day) and long-range forecasts, and hydrological analyses and forecasts, which use state-of-the-art science and technology in their formulation.


LONG-RANGE.


This discussion has been discontinued. A recent discussion is available at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

According to the latest ENSO advisory SEE LINK ABOVE

Mean 200 mb height anomalies This discussion has been discontinued to facilitate preparing and releasing the Hazards Assessment on Monday instead of on Tuesday (1-day earlier) in the near future. You can still view the latest available map by clicking on the link at the left.

Mean 200 mb winds and anomalies This discussion has been discontinued to facilitate preparing and releasing the Hazards Assessment on Monday instead of on Tuesday (1-day earlier) in the near future. You can still view the latest available map by clicking on the link at the left.

850 mb winds and anomalies This discussion has been discontinued to facilitate preparing and releasing the Hazards Assessment on Monday instead of on Tuesday (1-day earlier) in the near future. You can still view the latest availalbe map by clicking on the link at the left.

Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR), 5-day mean (Blues imply deep clouds, browns-reds imply few clouds) This discussion has been discontinued to facilitate preparing and releasing the Hazards Assessment on Monday instead of on Tuesday (1-day earlier) in the near future. You can still view the latest available map by clicking on the link at the left.

Observations and forecasts of principal storm tracks as shown by 200 mb average jet stream speeds (green contours) and 700 mb storm activity (shading) This discussion has been discontinued to facilitate preparing and releasing the Hazards Assessment on Monday instead of on Tuesday (1-day earlier) in the near future. You can still view the latest available map by clicking on the link at the left.

Shading on this latter figure is the MAXIMUM of the absolute value of the difference between the v- (north-south) component of the wind, and the 7-day average, V, of v, i.e., |v'| = max|(v - V)|, at 00 and 12 UTC for the seven-day period indicated to the right of the figure when |v'| was at least 12 m/s. The boundary between no shading and the lightest color marks the first shaded contour, which during the warm season represents 10 m/s, the second contour is 14 m/s, the third is 18 m/s, etc... During the cold season, the first shaded contour is set at 14 m/s. Jet stream isotachs are plotted at 10 m/s intervals, starting at 30 m/s.

MJO monitoring and forecast tools are available at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/new.mjo3.shtml

   


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