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HOME> Expert Assessments> Hazards Assessment> Hazards Briefing> Hazards Assessment Verification
 
Hazards Assessment Verification for Heavy Precipitation
 
This page updated on 11/29/2008
 
 
The Contingency Table
A
B
C
D
 
Where A=Number of Correct Forecasts,
B=Number of Incorrect Forecasts,
C=Number of Times Event Occured when no Forecast was Made,
D=Number of Times Event did not Occur when no Forecast was Made
 
 
Contingency Table for Latest Forecast (Made on:20081114):
00
7874
 
Cumulative Contingency Table:
25088634
38575281028
 
Hit Rate = (a+d)/(a+b+c+d)
Threat Score = (a)/(a+b+c)
 
Probability of Detection = (a)/(a+c)
False Alarm Rate = (b)/(a+b)
 
Bias = (a+b)/(a+c)
Means
 AllFcst
Hit Rate
0.8590.827
Threat Score
0.0340.074
Prob. of Detection
0.0520.114
False Alarm Rate
0.3600.791
Bias
0.2500.550

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Page last modified: December 23, 2005
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