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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made May 27, 2015

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Day 3-7 Outlook Day 8-14 Outlook Day 8-14 Probabilistic Temperature Hazards

Valid Saturday, May 30, 2015 to Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 27 2015

Synopsis: At the start of the period, a frontal system is expected to extend southwestward
from the Great Lakes across the Middle Mississippi valley to the southern Plains.
The front is forecast to move slowly southeastward before stalling and then
moving back northeastward as a warm front. Surface low pressure over the northern
Rockies on May 30 is anticipated to move slowly eastward to the northern plains
by Jun 2. Surface low pressure expected over southeastern Alaska on May 30 is
expected to move very little through Jun 2. An area of disturbed weather south of
the Mexican coast is forecast to track towards the west-northwest.


Hazards
  • Heavy rain for parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, Great Lakes,
  • central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and northeast, Sat-Sun, May 30-31.
  • Heavy rain for parts of the northern Rockies and northern Plains, Mon-Tue, Jun
  • 1-2.
  • Enhanced wildfire risk for interior eastern Alaska, Sat-Wed, May 30-Jun 3.
  • Flooding is possible, imminent, or occurring across portions of the central and
  • west-central CONUS.
  • Severe drought for parts of the northern, central, and southern Great Plains,
  • Southwest, Great Basin, California, and the Pacific Northwest.
Detailed Summary

For Saturday May 30 - Wednesday June 03: An upper-level ridge is expected to lead to very warm daily maximum temperatures
(positive anomalies of 10-15 degrees F) for parts of the Northwestern CONUS May
30-31. While some locations may approach 90 degrees F, a hazard shape is not
deemed warranted.

At the start of the period a frontal system is forecast to stretch southwestward
from the Great Lakes across the Middle Mississippi valley to the southern
Plains. As the front moves slowly southeastward it is expected to act as a
focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain (in excess of 1
inch in 24 hours) is expected for parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys, Great Lakes, central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and northeast May 30-
31. Thunderstorms are likley during the period over these regions but model
uncertainty precludes the specification of a severe weather hazard at the
current time.

Low pressure moving across the Northern Rockies leads to heavy rain (in excess
of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of the region June 1-2.

In the eastern interior of Alaska, continued warm, dry, and breezy conditions
favor a significantly increased chance of critical wildfire conditions
throughout this period.

Numerous areas of possible, likely, imminent, and occurring flooding are
indicated over the central and west-central portions of the CONUS, with all the
heavy rain received in recent days and weeks. To obtain the very latest,
detailed information on the status of streams and rivers across the U.S., please
consult the River Forecast Center (RFC) homepage at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php.

For Thursday June 04 - Wednesday June 10: The expected mid-tropospheric flow pattern for Week-2 features basically zonal
flow across the northern half of the CONUS. Significant positive height
anomalies at 500-hPa (ranging from +60 to +100 meters) are forecast across the
Northeast, and are expected to coincide with above normal surface temperatures
during this period for that region.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, released May 21st, indicates a substantial
decrease (from 17.68 to 15.16) in the percentage of the CONUS in severe to
exceptional drought (D2-D4).

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

$$

Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.


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Climate Prediction Center
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Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: August 22, 2011
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