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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made Jul 21, 2014

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Day 3-7 OutlookDay 8-14 Outlook

Valid Thursday, July 24, 2014 to Monday, August 04, 2014

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 21 2014

Synopsis: At the beginning of the period, an area of upper-level high pressure is forecast over the southwest U.S., while upper-level low pressure is anticipated over the northwest. The area of upper-level low pressure is then expected to move east to the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes and be replaced by strong upper-level high pressure by end of the week 1/start of the week 2 period. An area of upper-level low pressure is expected to persist over Alaska during the next two weeks, although upper-level high pressure is expected to build over the Aleutians.

Hazards
  • Much above normal temperatures for parts of the southwest and southern California, Thu, Jul 24.
  • Much above normal temperatures for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, and Northern Rockies, Sun-Wed, Jul 27-30.
  • Flooding occurring or imminent for parts of North Dakota.
  • Severe drought for parts of the Great Plains, Southwest, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.
Detailed Summary

For Thursday July 24 - Monday July 28: A frontal system is expected to bring unsettled weather to much of the eastern CONUS during the period. Areas of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the region, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of hazard areas at the current time.

A strong subtropical ridge is likely to strengthen across the Southwest and bring much above normal temperatures for parts of the region. Maximum temperatures are forecast to range from 105 to 115 degrees F across parts of the desert Southwest on Thursday.

A trough over the northwest conus is forecast to move eastward and by replaced by an amlified ridge. This is expected to lead to much above normal temperatures for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, and Northern Rockies towards the end of the period. This is of particular concern since numerous wildfires are burning across the Pacific Northwest and Idaho. Smoke from these wildfires is likely to reduce air quality. Early in this period, strong winds and low relative humidity will likely be juxtaposed over the eastern Snake River Valley and southwestern Wyoming, progressing eastward to southern Wyoming on Friday. Confidence is not sufficent to include a critcal fire weather hazard at the current time.

Flooding is expected to persist along the Souris River in North Dakota.

An upper-level trough is forecast to result in an active pattern across mainland Alaska. Although an active pattern is forecast, precipitation amounts and winds speeds are expected to remain below hazards criteria.

Tropical activity over the eastern Pacific will need to be monitored for possible impacts over Hawaii.

For Tuesday July 29 - Monday August 04: Early in the period, upper level ridging is forecast to prolong much above normal temperatures for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain West, and Northern Rockies.

Based on the latest Drought Monitor valid on July 15, the coverage of severe to exceptional drought across the continental U.S. decreased from 25 to 24 percent during the past week.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

$$

Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.


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