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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made Apr 16, 2014

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Day 3-7 OutlookDay 8-14 Outlook

Valid Saturday, April 19, 2014 to Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 16 2014

SYNOPSIS: AT THE START OF THE HAZARDS OUTLOOK, FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT PLAINS REGION, AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. SEVERAL NORTHERN PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INFLUENCE THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA.

HAZARDS
  • HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, SAT-SUN, APR 19-20.
  • FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, LOWER MICHIGAN, NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA (THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH), SAT-SUN, APR 19-20.
  • FLOODING IS LIKELY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, SAT-SUN, APR 19-20.
  • FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE MIDWEST, EASTERN NEW YORK, NEW ENGLAND, AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SAT-SUN, APR 19-20.
  • SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF IOWA, GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND HAWAII.
DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY APRIL 19 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 23: HEAVY RAIN (2 INCHES) IS PREDICTED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOST OF THE RAIN ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST.

THERE ARE A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF FLOOD-RELATED DESIGNATIONS ON THE MAP IN THE EAST. THESE ARE GENERALLY DUE TO WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, ANTICIPATED RAINFALL DURING (OR IN THE TWO DAYS PRIOR TO) THIS PERIOD, OR SNOW MELT (IN NORTHERN AREAS). UP TO NOW, COLDER WEATHER HAS PREVENTED RAPID SNOW MELT, WHICH WOULD OTHERWISE RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY FROST DEPTHS OF 3.5 - 5.0 FEET IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH PREVENTS MELT WATER FROM PERCOLATING DEEP INTO THE SOIL, AND RESULTS IN INCREASED RUNOFF. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER SITE: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC/CONTENT/SOILTEMP/SOILTEMP_GD.PHP?PE=OB&DEPTH=02

TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD, A SIGNIFICANT 500-HPA TROUGH IS PREDICTED BY MOST MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THOUGH THE DETAILS REGARDING EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE ENERGY REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, THIS PATTERN IN APRIL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK IN THE SOUTHWEST, AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. PENDING FUTURE MODEL TRENDS, HAZARDOUS AREAS MAY NEED TO BE DESIGNATED ON THE MAP ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY IN THIS AREAS.

SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA, BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA COAST, ESPECIALLY THE PANHANDLE. AT THIS TIME, NO HAZARDS ARE DEPICTED FOR THE STATE.

FOR THURSDAY APRIL 24 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 30: BY WEEK-2, MOST MODELS FAVOR A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST, AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. AS WITH THE EARLIER 3-7 DAY PERIOD, THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS (SOUTHWEST) AND SEVERE WEATHER (CENTRAL STATES) WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION, IF MOST MODELS ARE CORRECT IN PREDICTING THE TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, IT MAY REQUIRE THE EXTENSION AND/OR EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD HAZARDS IN THAT REGION. FOR NOW, THE ONLY HAZARDS ANTICIPATED WITH CONFIDENCE ARE THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT AREAS.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON APRIL 8, SEVERE DROUGHT COVERS 24.2 PERCENT OF THE CONUS, WHICH IS A MINOR INCREASE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WEEK AND THE LARGEST COVERAGE SINCE SEPTEMBER 2013. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR WILL BE UPDATED TOMORROW MORNING AT 8:30 AM EASTERN TIME.

FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA

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