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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made Apr 01, 2015

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Day 3-7 Outlook Day 8-14 Outlook Day 8-14 Probabilistic Temperature Hazards

Valid Saturday, April 04, 2015 to Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT April 01 2015

Synopsis: At the start of the period, surface low pressure over the northeast and its associated frontal systems are forecast to move off the east coast. A second cold front is expected to move from the northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the northeast states and Ohio Valley. High pressure over the central U.S. is expected to move to the eastern part of the nation as surface low pressure develops over the Great Basin/Central Rockies. Areas of Upper-level low pressure are forecast to move across the northwest U.S. Apr 5-7. Another area of surface low pressure is forecast to move from the Great Basin to the north-central U.S. during this timeframe. During the period, a series of areas of surface low pressure are anticipated to move from the Bering Sea towards the northern Gulf of Alaska as high pressure builds north of the state. Early in the week 2 period, an area of upper-level low pressure is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. to the northeast states.

Hazards
  • Heavy rain for parts of the lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Mon-Wed, Apr 6-8.
  • Heavy snow for parts of the Great Lakes and interior portions of the northeast states, Sat, Apr 4.
  • Heavy precipitation for parts of northern California, Mon-Tue, Apr 6-7.
  • High winds for parts of the east coast, Sat-Sun, Apr 4-5.
  • High winds for parts of the southwest, central Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and central and southern Plains, Sun-Mon, Apr 5-6.
  • High winds for parts of the California coast, Sat, Apr 4.
  • High winds for parts of the Aleutians, southern coast of Alaska, and the Alaska Panhandle, Mon-Tue, Apr 6-7.
  • High winds for parts of northwest Alaska, Mon-Tue, Apr 6-7.
  • Heavy precipitation for parts of the Alaska panhandle, Mon-Tue, Apr 6-7.
  • Much below normal temperatures for parts of northern New England, Sun-Mon, Apr 5-6.
  • Slight chance of much below normal temperatures for parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and northeast, Thu-Mon, Apr 9-13.
  • Moderate chance of much below normal temperatures for parts of northern Maine, Thu-Fri, Apr 9-10.
  • Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest, Great Basin, California, the Pacific Northwest, and southern Florida.
Detailed Summary

For Saturday April 04 - Wednesday April 08: Low pressure and its associated cold front are forecast to move off the east coast. This is expected to cause high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for parts of the east coast Apr 4-5. After the front crosses the northeast U.S., heavy snowfall (in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours) is possible behind the front near the Great Lakes and interior New England Apr 4. Much below normal temperatures (negative anomalies of 10-15 degrees F) are anticipated for parts of northern New England Apr 5-6.

An area of low pressure moving from the Northern Rockies to the northern/central Plains will draw warm moist air northward. This leads to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of the lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Apr 6-8. Severe weather is also possible over the region but large model spread precludes specifying a hazard shape at the current time. Behind the area of low pressure, high winds (in excess of 30 knots) are expected for parts of the southwest, central Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and central and southern Plains Apr 5-6.

Offshore flow and high winds (in excess of 30 knots) are anticipated for parts of the California coast Apr 4.

A longwave trough approaching the northwest CONUS is expected to bring unsettled weather to the region. Shortwaves proagating through the trough leads to heavy precipitation (rainfall in excess of 1 inches in 24 hours at lower elevations, snowfall in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours at the highest elevations) Apr 6-7.

Marginal critical fire weather conditions are expected over portions of the west-central and south-central CONUS Apr 4-7 but model uncertainty precludes the specification of hazard shapes at the current time.

Areas of low pressure are forecast to move across the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska. High winds (in excess of 40 knots) are possible for parts of the Aleutians, southern coast of Alaska, the Alaska Panhandle, and northwest Alaska Apr 6-7. Blowing snow may reduce visibilities over northwest Alaska during this timeframe. Heavy precipitation (rainfall in excess of 2 inches at lower elevations, snowfall in excess of 8 inches in 24 hours at higher elevations) is possible over parts of the Alaska Panhandle Apr 6-7.

For Thursday April 09 - Wednesday April 15: An upper-level trough expected over southeastern Canada leads to a slightly elevated chance of much below normal temperatures for parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and northeast Apr 9-13, and a moderate chance of much below normal temperatures for parts of northern Maine Apr 9-10.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, valid March 24, indicates a very slight increase (from 16.24 to 16.97) in the percentage of land in severe drought (D2-D4).

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

$$

Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.


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Page last modified: August 22, 2011
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