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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made May 31, 2016

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Day 3-7 Outlook Day 8-14 Outlook Day 8-14 Probabilistic Temperature Hazards

Valid Friday, June 03, 2016 to Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 31 2016

Synopsis: The remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie, currently near and off the Carolina coast, are expected to drift very slowly northward during the next several days. These remnants may finally move off the North Carolina/Virginia coast and out to sea this weekend, in advance of a cold front approaching from the west. The southern part of this front is anticipated to stall across the deep South, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and east Texas, with a wave of low pressure expected to develop along this boundary in the vicinity of the Texas coast. This low pressure center is forecast to slowly advance eastward along the Gulf coast to the Florida panhandle during the 3-7 day period. A ridge of high pressure aloft is predicted to contribute to unseasonably warm temperatures across a significant portion of the western CONUS. Relatively weak low pressure systems are predicted to influence Alaska during the Hazards period, but none are expected to bring hazardous weather conditions.

Hazards
  • Locally heavy rain over much of central and eastern Texas, Fri-Sat, June 3-4.
  • Locally heavy rain across the Florida peninsula, Sun-Mon, June 5-6.
  • Much above-normal temperatures for the Pacific Northwest, interior portions of northern and central California, the northern and central Intermountain Region, and the northern Rockies, Fri-Sun, June 3-5.
  • Much above-normal temperatures for the northern Intermountain Region, the northern Rockies, and portions of the northern High Plains, Mon-Tue, June 6-7.
  • Excessive heat for portions of the Southwest, Fri-Mon, June 3-6.
  • Excessive heat for portions of the Southeast, Fri-Sun, June 3-5.
  • A slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for northern and central portions of both the Intermountain West and Rockies, and much of the northern and central High Plains, Wed, June 8.
  • A moderate risk of much above-normal temperatures for Montana, northern Wyoming, and small parts of adjacent states, Wed, June 8.
  • Flooding is occurring, imminent, likely, or possible across eastern and southern portions of Texas, the Middle and Lower Missouri Valley, and along the Iowa-Missouri border.
  • Severe drought across parts of California, Nevada, north-central Wyoming, and Hawaii.
Detailed Summary

For Friday June 03 - Tuesday June 07: The remnants of Bonnie are expected to drift very slowly northward along and near the Carolina coast over the next few days, before being driven out to sea this weekend by a cold front approaching from the west. An area of excessive heat (defined as maximum daytime heat indices approaching 105 degrees F) is predicted along the Southern Atlantic coastal plain from South Carolina to northern Florida, June 3-5. On June 5-6, the expected combination of increasing southerly flow and sea-breeze convergence activity supports the risk of heavy rain across the Florida peninsula (1-4 inches, with the heavier amounts anticipated in South Florida). A low pressure center with tropical origins may develop near the Yucatan Channel and move toward the west coast of Florida between June 5-7. This area will be monitored over the next few days for any significant developments.

A stalled front draped across eastern Texas, and an accompanying wave of low surface pressure, are predicted to bring heavy rain (1-3 inches) to much of central and eastern Texas from June 3-4.

Flooding is occurring, imminent, likely, or possible across portions of eastern and southern Texas during this period, due to a combination of flooding already in progress, and the forecast of additional heavy rainfall associated with the stalled front and low pressure center noted earlier. Across the middle and lower Missouri River Valley, ongoing flooding is likely to be exacerbated by more precipitation expected during this period. A very small area of flooding is possible along the Iowa-Missouri border, as depicted on the map. Please note that some of the River Forecast Center (RFC) maps are still being updated, so to obtain the very latest flood maps please consult: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php.

Out West, high heat is the predominant issue, in association with ridging expected both aloft and at the surface. From June 3-5, daytime maximum temperatures are expected to range from 12-24 degrees above-normal across the Pacific Northwest, interior portions of northern and central California, the northern and central Intermountain Region, and the northern Rockies. For many locations, high temperatures will easily surpass 90 degrees F, and some locales in central Idaho, southern Washington, and northern Oregon may reach 100-105 degrees F. This broad region of anticipated much above-normal temperatures is forecast to shift eastward with time, including most of Montana and northern Wyoming on June 6-7. An area of excessive heat has been designated across the lower elevations of the desert Southwest from June 3-6. In this case, heat indices are forecast to range from 105-115 degrees F.

Several weak low pressure systems are predicted to affect Alaska during this period, but none are expected to bring hazardous weather conditions to the state. Over the southern interior, a thermal low will be the focus for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on June 3rd.

For Wednesday June 08 - Tuesday June 14: For the first day of this period (June 8), a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures is posted for northern and central portions of both the Intermountain West and Rockies, and much of the northern and central High Plains, where the GEFS reforecast tool indicates that daily maximum temperatures have at least a 20 percent chance of exceeding the 85th percentile compared to climatology. A moderate risk of much above-normal temperatures is predicted for Montana, northern Wyoming, and small parts of neighboring states during this same period. This represents the tail end of the predicted heat wave across a significant fraction of the western CONUS, at least for the time being.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on May 24, severe, or greater intensity, drought covers 3.69 percent of the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico), a decrease from 4.07 percent last week. This is the lowest coverage since October 2010.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa

$$

Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.


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