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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made Oct 31, 2014

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Day 3-7 OutlookDay 8-14 Outlook

Valid Monday, November 03, 2014 to Friday, November 14, 2014

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 31 2014

Synopsis: As a strong surface low pressure exits New England at the beginning of the period, a cold front is predicted to sweep across the eastern half of the lower 48 states Monday to Wednesday, followed by a quick moving secondary front Thursday, bringing wet weather to parts of the eastern half of the country. A series of surface lows in the northeast Pacific are anticipated to bring unsettled weather to the Pacific northwest during much of the first half of the period. A series of surface lows are forecast to develop over the Aleutians, Gulf of Alaska and the northern coast of Alaska during days 3 to 7.

Hazards
  • Heavy rain for parts of the Central and Southern Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, Mon-Tue, Nov 3-4.
  • Heavy rain for parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, Wed-Thu, Nov 5-6.
  • Heavy rain for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Mon-Tue, Nov 3-4.
  • Much below normal temperatures across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern Appalachians, Mon, Nov 3.
  • High winds across parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Central Appalachians, Mon, Nov 3.
  • Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.
Detailed Summary

For Monday November 03 - Friday November 07: Remnants of a surface low pressure exiting the New England coast is expected to bring high winds to parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Central Appalachians on Monday. Some of these areas may experience sustained wind speeds reaching 30 knots or greater.

Meanwhile, a cold front stretching from Manitoba to the Southern Plains is predicted to sweep across the eastern half of the CONUS Monday to Wednesday, followed by a secondary cold front, Thursday into Friday. The first of the two fronts is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the Central and Southern Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley Monday to Tuesday. A surface low along the southern portion of this front is anticipated to extend the potential for heavy rain into Wednesday and Thursday over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Some of these areas may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall or greater in a 24-hour period.

Upstream of this active weather pattern, strong onshore flow is forecast to dominate the Pacific Northwest for much of the days 3-7 period, bringing heavy rain to parts of this area Monday to Tuesday. Some areas may receive up to 2.5 inches of rainfall or greater in a 24-hour period. Temperatures are not expected to support frozen precipitation in the area at this time.

Cold, high pressure is anticipated to build across the southeastern CONUS by Monday, bringing much below normal temperatures to parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern Appalachians. These areas may experience daily minimum temperatures 12 degrees F below normal, with temperatures in the mid to low 30s (degrees F).

The 6Z deterministic GFS indicates the possibility for the Great Lakes to experience high winds with sustained wind speeds of 30 knots or greater on Thursday associated with a surface low at the head of the secondary cold front. However, due to poor model agreement regarding the intensity of this surface low and thus the associated winds, a related hazards area is not designated at this time.

There is poor model agreement and run to run model consistency regarding the expected pattern over Alaska. No hazards can be determined for Alaska at this time.

For Saturday November 08 - Friday November 14: In general, the majority of both deterministic and ensemble models support an active pattern across much of the CONUS during the first half of the week-2 period. Some models indicate strong onshore flow continuing to bring wet weather to the Pacific Northwest and upper-level troughing across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, supporting a wet pattern for the eastern half of the country. The 0Z ECMWF and 6Z GEFS ensemble means show the potential for a surface low developing over the Aleutians by next Sunday, although their counterpart deterministic models have significant model disagreement regarding the pattern over Alaska. There are too many model differences regarding the details of these features to determine any related hazards at this time.

The most recent Drought Monitor, released October 28, shows a slight decrease in the areal coverage of severe drought, from 18.04% to 18.01%. There is also the largest amount of areal extent without any level of dryness since December 2011.

Forecaster: Melissa Ou

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Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.


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