Valid Saturday, February 25, 2012 to Wednesday, March 07, 2012

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST FEBRUARY 22 2012

SYNOPSIS: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE ASSESSMENT PERIOD, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PREDICTED TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE SOUTHEAST. A STORMY PATTERN IS PREDICTED FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING MUCH OF THE ASSESSMENT PERIOD.

HAZARDS

• PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, ROCKIES, AND HIGH PLAINS, FEB 25-26.
• HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, FEB 25.
• MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN PLAINS, FEB 27-28.
• HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, FEB 26-27.
• FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN SOUTHWESTERN AND EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.
• HEAVY SNOW TO THE LEE OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, FEB 25.
• HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND, FEB 25.
• ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, FEB 25.
• SIGNIFICANT WAVES FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, FEB 25-26.
• SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, ALONG THE NEVADA-OREGON BORDER, SOUTHEAST, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, AND HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY FEBRUARY 25 - WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 29: AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE DEPARTING THE NORTHEAST, AND LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW BANDS DOWNWIND OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ARE LIKELY. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTS.

OVER THE WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OFF THE WEST COAST, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BY THESE FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS ANTICIPATED TO CREATE HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE WEST, GREAT BASIN, AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH HAZARD CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.

THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (12 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HEAVY SNOW (4-8 INCHES) IS LIKELY NORTHWEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, MINNESOTA, AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE, A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO BRING PRECIPITATION, HIGH WAVES, AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER OVER 24 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ON FEB 25-26.

FOR THURSDAY MARCH 01 - WEDNESDAY MARCH 07: NO OTHER SPECIFIC HAZARDS CAN BE RELIABLY IDENTIFIED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER: SARAH MARQUARDT

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