Valid Saturday, February 13, 2016 to Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Summary of Forecasts and Hazards
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EST February 10 2016Synopsis
: A strong area of low-pressure is
forecast over the Northeast with a strong area of surface high pressure over
the northern Great Plains at the start of the period. That area of surface high
pressure is forecast to shift eastward, while a low-pressure center is forecast
to develop near the Gulf Coast early next week. Multiple storm systems are also
forecast to impact the Pacific Northwest during the early and later portions of
the outlook period. Multiple low-pressure systems are forecast to impact
western and southern Alaska. Hazards
Detailed Summary For Saturday
February 13 - Wednesday February 17:
- Heavy precipitation
across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Sat-Sun,
Feb 13-Feb 14.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Tue, Feb 16.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northeast, the Central
Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern
Appalachians, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Feb
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the
Northeast, and the Southern Appalachians, Mon-Tue, Feb 15-Feb 16.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies, Sat-Sun, Feb 13-Feb 14.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Sat-Sun, Feb 13-Feb
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the
Mid-Atlantic, and the Lower Mississippi Valley, Sat-Sun, Feb 13-Feb 14.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the
Lower Mississippi Valley, Sat-Sun, Feb 13-Feb 14.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of California, the Great Basin, and the
Pacific Northwest, Thu, Feb 18.
- High winds across portions of Southern California, Sun-Mon, Feb 14-Feb 15.
- High winds across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Sat-Sun,
Feb 13-Feb 14.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the
Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the
Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Upper
Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley,
Sat-Mon, Feb 13-Feb 15.
- Severe Drought across parts of the western U.S. and Puerto Rico.
An intense low-pressure system is
forecast to move out to sea from near the Northeast, while strong high pressure
is forecast to build over the Great Plains. Between these two systems, strong
winds (30-40 mph, with higher gusts) are likely over the northeast during the
The coldest air of the season for much of the CONUS is forecast to funnel
southward over the eastern third of the country as the high pressure area
builds. Some model output had record breaking cold temperatures earlier in the
week, while more recent runs have slightly warmer temperatures aloft. Current
forecasts are for temperatures to be much below normal, with daytime highs and
overnight lows 16-24 degrees F below average). Around the southern periphery of
the high pressure area, winds could become strong enough to exceed critical
fire weather thresholds across the Southern Great Plains on Saturday.
Once the high pressure moves off the to the east, a low-pressure center is
forecast to form near the Gulf Coast. Instability should be low, but some model
outputs indicate a very low threat of isolate severe weather for the Gulf
Coast. As that low-pressure system moves north and east, precipitation is
likely to overspread the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Southern Appalachians, and
Mid-Atlantic, before moving toward the Great Lakes and Northeast. Model
solutions are uncertain on the precipitation type, so the current hazard does
not delineate between rain and snow further inland. As of the morning of Feb
10, the heaviest snows were forecast west of most major, east coast cities.
Latest outlooks in the 4-7 day range indicate the highest odds of 2.5-4 inches
of snow from central Pennsylvania to Maine.
High pressure is forecast over the Great Basin. This is likely to lead to
high winds for Southern California during the weekend and into early next week,
before the western ridge breaks down.
Multiple storm systems are forecast to impact the western CONUS. The first
is forecast for this weekend, with a second system during the middle of next
week. Snow levels are expected to be between 3500 and 5000 feet across the
Heavy rainfall during the past few weeks triggered minor to moderate
flooding along the following rivers: Altamaha and Savannah Rivers in Georgia,
Cape Fear River in North Carolina, Edisto River in South Carolina,
Choctawhatchee River in the Florida Panhandle, and Pearl River in Mississippi.
A persistent area of low pressure and onshore flow are expected to bring
periods of increased winds and precipitation to coastal southern Alaska and the
Alaska Panhandle during this period. However, hazardous precipitation amounts
and wind speeds are not forecast across these areas For Thursday February 18 -
Wednesday February 24:
Model forecasts indicate the potential for another
low-pressure system to move into Northern California later next week. The
models vary on the storm taking a northern route into Northern Great Basin, or
diving southward to impact Southern California. Model solutions do overlap in
giving the Sierra Nevada range heavy precipitation.
The Canadian ensemble mean and the GFS ensemble mean, which both have the
storm over the west taking a more southerly track, both develop a low-pressure
system over the southern Great Plains next weekend. Uncertainty is still too
high to depict a hazard, but this situation will be monitored.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor valid on February 2, the coverage of
severe to exceptional (D2-D4) drought across the 50 U.S. states and Puerto Rico
decreased slightly from 7.13 percent to 7.06 percent. Severe to exceptional
drought is limited to the western third of the contiguous U.S. and Puerto
Forecaster: Matthew Rosencrans
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.