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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made Oct 25, 2016

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Day 3-7 Outlook Day 8-14 Outlook Day 8-14 Probabilistic Temperature Hazards

Valid Friday, October 28, 2016 to Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 25 2016

Synopsis: At the start of the period, surface low pressure is forecast to move from along the New England coast into the northwest Atlantic. A second area of surface low pressure is anticipated to move across the Great Lakes into Northern New England Oct 29-30. A series of surface low pressure systems are forecast to impact the west coast of the U.S. Oct 28-Nov 1. Multiple areas of strong surface low pressure are expected to move from the Bering Sea towards northwestern Mainland Alaska. During week-2, air of Pacific origin is anticipated to dominate the lower 48 states with above-normal temperatures expected. An unsettled weather pattern is likely to persist over the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and Alaska.

  • Heavy rain for parts of Maine, Fri, Oct 28.
  • High winds for portions of coastal Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine, Fri, Oct 28.
  • Periods of heavy rain for parts of Northern California and southwestern Oregon, Fri-Tue, Oct 28-Nov 1.
  • Heavy snow for higher elevations of the Bitterroots and Northern Rockies, Sun-Mon, Oct 30-31.
  • Periods of high winds across portions of western mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Fri-Tue, Oct 28-Nov 1.
  • Periods of significant waves for parts of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, Fri-Tue, Oct 28-Nov 1.
  • Significant waves for parts of western mainland Alaska, Fri-Sun, Oct 28-30.
  • Flooding occurring or imminent across a small portion of northeastern South Carolina.
  • Severe Drought in the Central Plains, the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, Hawaii, the Northern Great Basin, the Northeast, California, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Central Appalachians, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.
Detailed Summary

For Friday October 28 - Tuesday November 01: Surface low pressure forecast along the New England coast Oct 28 is expected to move into the northwest Atlantic by Oct 29. Heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) is anticipated for parts of Maine Oct 28. In addition, high winds (speeds in excess of 30 knots) are expected for portions of coastal Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine Oct 28. Snowfall is possible over the highest elevations of interior New York and New England but amounts are not currently expected to reach hazardous criteria. Another area of low pressure is forecast to move across the Great Lakes to off the New England coast Oct 29-30. A narrow band of heavy rain is possible with this system across northern New York and central new England but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard shape at the current time.

A series of low pressure systems over the eastern Pacific are forecast to lead to unsettled weather for portions of the west coast. Periods of heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch over 24 hours) are anticipated for parts of Northern California and southwestern Oregon Oct 28-Nov 1. Local amounts exceeding 5 inches over the 5-day period are possible over portions of Northern California and extreme southwestern Oregon. Heavy snow (in excess of 6 inches in 24 hours) is anticipated at the highest elevations of the Bitterroots and Northern Rockies Oct 30-31. Although there is some uncertainty that snow accumulations will reach hazardous criteria for this event, a hazard shape has been included since some of these regions have not experienced heavy snowfall so far this season.

Southerly flow and extremely warm temperatures are likely to build in over the Great Plains. Daily high temperatures are likely to be as much as 20-24 degrees F above normal, but high temperatures are not expected to be threatening to life or property, so no hazard is depicted (although some locations could approach 90 degrees F).

Over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, a series of low pressure systems at the surface and aloft are expected during most of the period. This is expected to lead to periods of significant waves (wave heights in excess of 20 feet) Oct 28-Nov 1 for parts of the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula. Significant waves are also anticipated for portions of western Mainland Alaska Oct 28-30. Periods of high winds (winds in excess of 40 knots) are expected Oct 28-Nov 1 for parts of western mainland Alaska and the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Coastal flooding due to ocean encroachment along the western coast of Alaska is also possible. The risk to life and property with this predicted system is high.

Major hurricane Seymour currently south of Baja California is expected to weaken as it moves north of 20 degrees latitude by Oct 28. Moisture associated with this system may get drawn northward by the trough forecast over the eastern Pacific and enhance precipitation amounts along the west coast.

For Wednesday November 02 - Tuesday November 08: Air masses of Pacific origin are forecast to dominate the CONUS. No large negative temperature anomalies are anticipated during the period. A deep trough over the eastern Pacific is expected to maintain unsettled conditions for parts of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest but no specific hazards can currently be identified due to timing differences among recent model solutions.

Severe, or greater intensity, drought increased slightly in coverage across the CONUS during the past week. Severe drought is now covering 9.66% of the CONUS, up from 8.68% the prior week.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

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