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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made Oct 24, 2014

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Day 3-7 OutlookDay 8-14 Outlook

Valid Monday, October 27, 2014 to Friday, November 07, 2014

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 24 2014

Synopsis: Low pressure systems are predicted to bring unsettled weather to New England and the Pacific Northwest, while the rest of the Lower 48 is expected to see relatively calm weather. No cold air outbreaks are expected, as the flow is predicted to come primarily off the Pacific Ocean.

Hazards
  • Heavy rain along the West Coast from Northern California to the Canadian border, Mon-Wed, Oct 27-29.
  • High winds across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, Tue, Oct 28.
  • High winds across New England, Mon, Oct 27.
  • High winds and significant waves for the western Alaskan coast, Mon, Oct 27 and again Thu, Oct 30.
  • High winds and significant waves for the southwestern Alaskan coast, Wed-Thu, Oct 29-30.
  • High winds for the southern Alaskan coast and panhandle, Thu, Oct 30.
  • Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.
Detailed Summary

For Monday October 27 - Friday October 31: A strong upper-level trough is forecast to move through southern Canada and amplify as it moves past the Great Lakes and the northeast. Its associated surface low is then expected to strengthen and increase the pressure gradient around it. High winds are expected in New England on the 27th due to this strong pressure gradient.

Concurrently, an upper-level trough is forecast to make its way across the Lower 48. Warm, moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico is expected ahead of the surface cold front, leading to showers and locally severe weather. The low is currently predicted to intensify as it nears the Great Lakes, which means the greatest chance for heavy rain and widespread severe weather exists from the Ohio Valley southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley on either Tuesday the 28th or Wednesday the 29th. Also, on the backside of the storm, enough cold air might exist for some snow in parts of the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. At this time, any potential snowfall does not appear to reach hazardous criteria, but is mentioned as it would be the first appreciable snowfall this season for this part of the country. However, strong winds are anticipated in parts of the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes on the 28th due to a strengthening pressure gradient.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Ana is then expected to interact with an extratropical upper-level trough and move into the Pacific Northwest. While the exact details of this interaction remain uncertain, there is high confidence that Ana's remnants will bring heavy rain along the West Coast, from northern California to the Canadian border from the 27th to the 29th. An additional 3 to 5 inches of rain is possible during this time period. Considering the almost 10 inches that will have fallen during the past seven days as well as before this Outlook period begins, flooding is a distinct possibility.

An upper-level trough is forecast to move from northeastern Russia across the Bering Sea. The associated surface low is expected to direct high winds and significant waves to the west coast of Alaska, from about the Kuskokwim Delta to Kotzebue Sound on the 27th. Concurrently, a very strong storm is forecast to form and move from just north of Japan into the Bering Sea. This storm is predicted to bring another round of high winds and signifigant waves to most of the southwest coast of Alaska on the 29th and spreading to most of the west coast of the mainland, northern Gulf of Alaska coastline, and the Panhandle.


For Saturday November 01 - Friday November 07: There is a lot of disagreement at this time range between the operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS models. The ECMWF predicts a strong upper-level trough digging down into the Mississippi Valley with a strong coastal low developing off the mid-Atlantic Coast. This solution would bring heavy rain to the coasts and heavy snow to the Appalachians and Great Lakes. However, the GFS does not amplify the trough this deeply, and instead, a surface low skims New England. This would bring the potential of heavy snow to Maine, but due to the uncertainty, no hazards are indicated at this time. To add to the uncertainty, these models have flip-flopped from the pattern they were predicting yesterday.

The most recent Drought Monitor, released October 23, shows a slight decrease in the areal coverage of severe drought, from 18.01% to 18.0%. There is also the largest amount of areal extent without any level of dryness since December 2011.

Forecaster: Kenneth Pelman

$$

Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.


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