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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made Jun 22, 2017

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Day 3-7 Outlook Day 8-14 Outlook Day 8-14 Probabilistic Temperature Hazards

Valid Sunday, June 25, 2017 to Thursday, July 06, 2017

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 22 2017

Synopsis: A cold front is predicted to stretch across the Southern Tier of the lower 48 states at the beginning of the period, evolving into a stationary front across Florida on June 28th. Meanwhile, surface low pressure is expected to dominate most of the western third of the Contiguous U.S. during the 3 to 7 day period. Surface low pressure is anticipated to develop over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska during the 3 to 7 day period. Southerly flow associated with surface low pressure may bring unsettled weather to the Kenai Peninsula by the end of the 3 to 7 day period.

Hazards
  • Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains, Central and Western Gulf Coast, and coastal parts of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic, Sun-Mon, Jun 25-Jun 26.
  • Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Rockies, Sun-Mon, Jun 25-Jun 26.
  • Excessive heat across portions of the Desert Southwest, Sun-Tue, Jun 25-Jun 27.
  • Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Wed-Thu, Jun 28-Jun 29.
  • Heavy rain across coastal portions of the Kenai Peninsula, Wed-Thu, Jun 28-Jun 29.
  • Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.
  • Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast and the Northern Great Basin.
  • Flooding likely across portions of the Central Rockies, the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies.
  • Severe Drought across California, Hawaii, the Northern Plains, and the Southwest.
  • Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Southern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Fri-Sun, Jun 30-Jul 2.
Detailed Summary

For Sunday June 25 - Thursday June 29: On Jun 25, a frontal system is expected to stretch from along coastal sections of the southern tier of the CONUS from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southwest. This will serve to act as a focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain is anticipated for parts of the Central and Western Gulf Coast June 25 to 26. Surface troughing across the Southwest is also expected to support strong moist southerly flow, bringing heavy rainfall to the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains June 25 and 26. In addition, moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical System Cindy are forecast to interact with the frontal system leading to heavy rain for coastal portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic June 25 to 26. As the front moves southeastward and stalls over the Florida Peninsula Jun 27, heavy rain is possible for parts of the state. However, due to significant model uncertainty regarding the amount of rainfall, an additional heavy rain hazard is not included at this time. Rainfall amounts in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours are possible for the aforementioned areas.

Heat-related hazards continue to be forecast across parts of the western third of the CONUS during the 3-7 day period, due in part to subsidence associated with 500-hPa ridging that is anticipated over the western CONUS. Much above normal temperatures (positive anomalies of 16-20 degrees F) are expected for parts of the Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Rockies, Jun 25-26. Maximum temperatures are expected to be in the triple digits across parts of western Oregon and southern Washington. Excessive heat (heat index values above 105 F) is forecast across portions of the Southwest Jun 25-27.

Surface low pressure is predicted to form across a frontal boundary stretching from the northern Plains southwestward to the Southwest by June 29. As this storm moves eastward, parts of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley may receive heavy rainfall (1.5 inches or greater in 24-hours) June 28 to 29.

A surface low is anticipated to form over the Gulf of Alaska by June 28. Strong onshore flow associated with this system may support heavy rainfall across coastal portions of the Kenai Peninsula June 28 to 29. Localized areas may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall in a 24-hour period. Besides this feature, Alaska is forecast to be relatively warm and dry throughout both weeks with high pressure forecast to the south of the state and mid-level ridging in the Gulf of Alaska. This scenario suggests increased risks for fire activity for the state which bear monitoring throughout the period, despite some initially moist conditions from antecedent rains across the interior.

For Friday June 30 - Thursday July 06: The aforementioned surface low pressure along a frontal boundary across central CONUS from the 3 to 7 day period is expected to move eastward across the CONUS into the beginning to middle of week-2. Passage of this cold front may bring heavy rainfall to parts of the Central Plains, the Southern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley June 30 to July 2. The GEFS Reforecast Tool indicates a 20% chance or greater of rainfall reaching the 85th percentile of accumulated 3-day precipitation compared to climatology in highlighted areas. The GEFS shows the greatest chance for heavy rainfall over the upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes, whereas the ECMWF ensemble indicates the axis of heavy rainfall shifted southeastward, mainly across the Middle Mississippi Valley. The highlighted heavy rainfall area incorporates a broad risk area taking into account these model differences. Beyond this possible area of unsettled weather, a mostly zonal flow pattern is forecast across most of the CONUS during the week-2 period, with weak troughs over the Northeast, western CONUS and Aleutians, and a weak ridge over the interior western CONUS.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on June 22nd shows D2-D4 drought coverage over the CONUS now at 2.13%, a slight increase from 1.57% one week ago.

Forecaster: Melissa Ou

$$

Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.


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