Valid Thursday, January 26, 2017 to Monday, February 06, 2017
Summary of Forecasts and Hazards
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EST January 23 2017Synopsis
: At the start of the Hazards Outlook
period, a cold front is predicted to move off the Atlantic Coast, followed by
coast-to-coast surface high pressure. Fast-moving disturbances are then
forecast to progress across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic,
reinforcing the cold air expected to be in place. Several storm systems are
anticipated to affect Alaska during the 3-7 day period. Hazards
Summary For Thursday January 26 - Monday January
- Much below-normal temperatures are predicted over large portions of
both the Intermountain Region and the Rockies, Thu-Sat, Jan 26-28.
- Heavy precipitation (generally coastal rain, mountain snow) from the Kenai
Peninsula eastward and southeastward across the Alaska Panhandle, Thu-Sat, Jan
- Flooding is possible, likely, or imminent/occurring near parts of the Gulf
Coast, east-central Georgia, and northwest Illinois.
- Slight chance of much below-normal temperatures for southeast Oregon, much
of Nevada, Utah, and relatively small portions of adjacent states, Tue-Wed, Jan
- Slight chance of much below-normal temperatures generally south of a line
from eastern Louisiana to southern South Carolina, Tue-Wed, Jan 31-Feb 1.
- Severe Drought across portions of central and southern California,
southwestern Arizona, Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, southern
Appalachians, Northeast, and Hawaii.
A cold front moving off the East Coast at the beginning of the period
is expected to be followed by coast-to-coast high pressure. During the ensuing
3-4 days, fast-moving disturbances are forecast to traverse the Great Lakes
region, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic. These disturbances are predicted to bring
lake-enhanced snow squalls to typical downwind areas of the Great Lakes, though
nothing unusually heavy is foreseen at this time. For most remaining areas of
the CONUS, dry westerly or northwesterly flow favors widespread dryness. A few
minor exceptions include the Florida peninsula and southern Texas, where
rainfall amounts of less than 0.50-inch are anticipated during this period.
For large portions of both the Intermountain Region and the Rockies,
surface temperatures are expected to range from 12-16 degrees below-normal,
between January 26-28.
In the Alaska domain, several frontal systems are forecast to bring
unsettled conditions to the region. A southerly to southwesterly fetch of
Pacific moisture is expected to result in heavy precipitation for the Alaska
coast (at least 1.5-2.0 inches per 24-hour period), between the Kenai Peninsula
and Ketchikan (far southern Panhandle). Windswept rain and/or mixed
precipitation is favored for coastal areas, and snow for mountainous
For Tuesday January 31 - Monday February 06:
According to the GEFS
calibrated Probabilistic Extremes Outlook (PEO) tool, there is a slight chance
(20-percent) of much below-normal temperatures for a large portion of the
Intermountain West and Rockies from Jan 31-Feb 1. There is also a slight chance
of much below-normal temperatures generally south of a line from eastern
Louisiana to southern South Carolina. These areas correspond to where the GEFS
predicts minimum temperature values will fall within the lowest 15 percent of
the climatological distribution. The colder conditions over the Southeast CONUS
are expected to be brief, followed by a gradual moderation in
Forecaster: Anthony Artusa
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.