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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made Mar 02, 2015

Composite Images

Day 3-7 Outlook Day 8-14 Outlook Day 8-14 Probabilistic Temperature Hazards

Valid Thursday, March 05, 2015 to Monday, March 16, 2015

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST March 02 2015

Synopsis: A cold front is forecast to move off the Mid-Atlantic and southeast coasts as areas of surface low pressure propagate northeastward along the boundary. Arctic high pressure builds in behind this front over the central and eastern U.S. A frontal system and its associated area of surface low pressure are forecast to move across central and southwestern Alaska. An area of upper-level low pressure is expected to move across the northeast U.S. during the 6-10 day period and early in the week 2 period. In Hawaii, an upper-air disturbance is forecast to bring heavy precipitation, especially for the southern islands of the archipelago.

Hazards
  • Heavy snow for parts of the northeast, Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Thu, Mar 5.
  • Freezing rain and sleet for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, southern Appalachians, Southeast, Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys, and southern Plains, Thu, Mar 5.
  • High winds along parts of the Gulf Coast, Thu-Fri, Mar 5-6.
  • High winds along parts of the east coast, Thu-Fri, Mar 5-6.
  • Much below normal temperatures for much of the central and eastern CONUS (except the southeast), Thu-Sun, Mar 5-8.
  • Heavy snows for parts of central Alaska near and south of the Brooks Range, Sat-Sun, Mar 7-8.
  • Significant waves for coastal sections of southwestern Alaska, Sat-Sun, Mar 7-8.
  • Flooding possible or likely for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and Ohio Valley.
  • A slight risk of much below-normal minimum temperatures for parts of the northeast and Mid-Atlantic, Tue-Sat, Mar 10-14.
  • A slight risk of much below-normal minimum temperatures for parts of central and eastern Alaska, Tue-Fri, Mar 10-13.
  • A moderate risk of much below-normal minimum temperatures for parts of east-central Alaska, Tue, Mar 10.
  • Periods of heavy rain for Hawaii (especially Maui and the Big Island), Thu-Mon, Mar 5-9.
  • Flooding is occurring or imminent in central Mississippi, Thu, Mar 5.
  • Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest, Great Basin, California, the Pacific Northwest, and Tennessee Valley.
Detailed Summary

For Thursday March 05 - Monday March 09: A frontal system is forecast to move off the Mid-Atlantic and southeast coasts. Areas of low pressure are forecast to move northeastward along the front leading to heavy snow (in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours) for parts of the northeast, Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Mar 5. Freezing rain and/or sleet is expected for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, southern Appalachians, Southeast, Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys, and southern Plains Mar 5. High winds (n excess of 30 knots) are anticipated along the Gulf and east coasts Mar 5-6. Arctic high pressure building in behind the frontal system leads to much below normal temperatures (negative anomalies of 12-30 degrees) spreading eastward across much of the central and eastern CONUS (except the southeast) Mar 5-8.

Antecedent rainfall, along with snow melt and the expectation of additional precipitation leads to possible or likely river flooding for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, Ohio Valley, and central Mississippi.

Low pressure and its associated frontal system are expected to move across central and southwestern Alaska leading to heavy snow (in excess of 6 inches in 24 hours) for parts of central Alaska near and south of the Brooks Range Mar 7-8. In addition, significant waves (in excess of 20 feet) are anticipated for coastal sections of southwestern Alaska Mar 7-8.

A 500-hPa trough over the east-central Pacific is predicted near Hawaii. As a result, several models predict rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches for the Islands in general, and locally up to a foot of rain is possible in Maui and the Big Island during this period.

For Tuesday March 10 - Monday March 16: There is a slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for parts of the northeast and Mid-Atlantic Mar 10-14

There is a slight risk of much below normal temperatures for the eastern three quarters of Alaska Mar 10-13. There is a moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of east-central Alaska Mar 10.

The most recent U.S. drought monitor, released February 26, 2015, indicates a slight decrease in the areal coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) in the past week from 16.44 to 16.42 percent across the continental U.S. Forty percent of California remains designated in the exceptional drought (D4) category. Although most revisions made to the Monitor this week are fairly small, the more notable changes include a general 1-category improvement in Kentucky and western Tennessee, and a 1-category degradation across the central Gulf Coast area.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

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Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.


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Page last modified: August 22, 2011
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