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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made Sep 19, 2014

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Day 3-7 OutlookDay 8-14 Outlook

Valid Monday, September 22, 2014 to Friday, October 03, 2014

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT September 19 2014

Synopsis: An area of upper-level low pressure is forecast to progress into the western U.S. later next week, while an area of upper-level high pressure builds across the east-central U.S. On Monday and Tuesday, an area of upper-level low pressure is expected to slowly track from the north-central Rockies to the Great Plains. A front is forecast to become stationary across south Florida by mid-week. Surface high pressure is expected to build across Alaska as the North Pacific storm track shifts south.

Hazards
  • Locally heavy rain for the central/southern Great Plains, Mon-Tue, Sep 22-23.
  • Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest, southern Georgia, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.
Detailed Summary

For Monday September 22 - Friday September 26: The high resolution models are in reasonably good agreement early in the period that a mid-level trough slowly emerges from the Rockies and moves across the Great Plains. Southerly flow on the back side of a surface high is expected to spread anomalous moisture north across the Great Plains. This mid-level trough coupled with abundant low-level moisture is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall, most likely across the central/southern Great Plains, on Monday and Tuesday.

An upper-level ridge is expected to result in maximum temperatures averaging around 12 degrees F above-normal across the interior Pacific Northwest on Monday. The anomalous warmth is forecast to shift east to the northern high Plains by mid-week. Since maximum temperatures are forecast to remain below 90 degrees F across these areas, a much-above normal temperature hazard is not deemed necessary.

Numerous wildfires are burning across the Pacific Northwest and California with the largest wildfire (more than 125,000 acres burned as of September 19) in Siskiyou County of northern California. During the middle part of next week, the high resolution models remain consistent that a trough with southwest flow aloft affects the Pacific Northwest and northern California which would bring much needed rain to these areas. A heavy rain hazard is not posted since the high resolution models indicate rainfall amounts below hazards criteria.

Surface high pressure is forecast to become centered over the Northeast by mid-week, while a front becomes stationary from the Gulf of Mexico east to the northern Bahamas. The potential exists for surface low development along this front near the Southeast Coast. The exact evolution of this feature is unclear due to model inconsistencies leading to low predictability.

Following a wet weekend across the Alaska Panhandle, a drying trend is expected due to a southward shift of the north Pacific storm track. A surface ridge is forecast to prevail across most of Alaska during this period.

For Saturday September 27 - Friday October 03: Ensemble means indicate a pattern change by Week-2 with a trough (ridge) over the western (eastern) conus. Near to above-median precipitation is expected to accompany this trough as it moves inland across the western U.S. However, no heavy precipitation (rain or high-elevation snow) is anticipated at this time across the western U.S.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on September 16, indicates that the percentage of the CONUS in severe to exceptional drought decreased below 20 percent for the first time since January 2014.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh

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Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.


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