Valid Monday, November 03, 2014 to Friday, November 14, 2014
Summary of Forecasts and Hazards
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT October 31 2014Synopsis
: As a strong surface low pressure
exits New England at the beginning of the period, a cold front is predicted to
sweep across the eastern half of the lower 48 states Monday to Wednesday,
followed by a quick moving secondary front Thursday, bringing wet weather to
parts of the eastern half of the country. A series of surface lows in the
northeast Pacific are anticipated to bring unsettled weather to the Pacific
northwest during much of the first half of the period. A series of surface lows
are forecast to develop over the Aleutians, Gulf of Alaska and the northern
coast of Alaska during days 3 to 7. Hazards
Detailed Summary For Monday November
03 - Friday November 07:
- Heavy rain
for parts of the Central and Southern Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi
Valley, Mon-Tue, Nov 3-4.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley,
Wed-Thu, Nov 5-6.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Mon-Tue, Nov 3-4.
- Much below normal temperatures across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and
Southern Appalachians, Mon, Nov 3.
- High winds across parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and
Central Appalachians, Mon, Nov 3.
- Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest,
Southeast, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.
Remnants of a surface low pressure exiting the
New England coast is expected to bring high winds to parts of the Northeast,
Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Central Appalachians on Monday. Some of these
areas may experience sustained wind speeds reaching 30 knots or greater.
Meanwhile, a cold front stretching from Manitoba to the Southern Plains is
predicted to sweep across the eastern half of the CONUS Monday to Wednesday,
followed by a secondary cold front, Thursday into Friday. The first of the two
fronts is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the Central and Southern
Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley Monday to Tuesday. A surface
low along the southern portion of this front is anticipated to extend the
potential for heavy rain into Wednesday and Thursday over the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley. Some of these areas may receive up to 2 inches of
rainfall or greater in a 24-hour period.
Upstream of this active weather pattern, strong onshore flow is forecast to
dominate the Pacific Northwest for much of the days 3-7 period, bringing heavy
rain to parts of this area Monday to Tuesday. Some areas may receive up to 2.5
inches of rainfall or greater in a 24-hour period. Temperatures are not
expected to support frozen precipitation in the area at this time.
Cold, high pressure is anticipated to build across the southeastern CONUS
by Monday, bringing much below normal temperatures to parts of the Southeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and Southern Appalachians. These areas may experience daily
minimum temperatures 12 degrees F below normal, with temperatures in the mid to
low 30s (degrees F).
The 6Z deterministic GFS indicates the possibility for the Great Lakes to
experience high winds with sustained wind speeds of 30 knots or greater on
Thursday associated with a surface low at the head of the secondary cold front.
However, due to poor model agreement regarding the intensity of this surface
low and thus the associated winds, a related hazards area is not designated at
There is poor model agreement and run to run model consistency regarding
the expected pattern over Alaska. No hazards can be determined for Alaska at
this time. For Saturday November 08 -
Friday November 14:
In general, the majority of both deterministic and
ensemble models support an active pattern across much of the CONUS during the
first half of the week-2 period. Some models indicate strong onshore flow
continuing to bring wet weather to the Pacific Northwest and upper-level
troughing across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, supporting a wet pattern
for the eastern half of the country. The 0Z ECMWF and 6Z GEFS ensemble means
show the potential for a surface low developing over the Aleutians by next
Sunday, although their counterpart deterministic models have significant model
disagreement regarding the pattern over Alaska. There are too many model
differences regarding the details of these features to determine any related
hazards at this time.
The most recent Drought Monitor, released October 28, shows a slight
decrease in the areal coverage of severe drought, from 18.04% to 18.01%. There
is also the largest amount of areal extent without any level of dryness since
Forecaster: Melissa Ou
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.