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Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made Jan 23, 2017

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Day 3-7 Outlook Day 8-14 Outlook Day 8-14 Probabilistic Temperature Hazards

Valid Thursday, January 26, 2017 to Monday, February 06, 2017

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST January 23 2017

Synopsis: At the start of the Hazards Outlook period, a cold front is predicted to move off the Atlantic Coast, followed by coast-to-coast surface high pressure. Fast-moving disturbances are then forecast to progress across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic, reinforcing the cold air expected to be in place. Several storm systems are anticipated to affect Alaska during the 3-7 day period.

Hazards
  • Much below-normal temperatures are predicted over large portions of both the Intermountain Region and the Rockies, Thu-Sat, Jan 26-28.
  • Heavy precipitation (generally coastal rain, mountain snow) from the Kenai Peninsula eastward and southeastward across the Alaska Panhandle, Thu-Sat, Jan 26-28.
  • Flooding is possible, likely, or imminent/occurring near parts of the Gulf Coast, east-central Georgia, and northwest Illinois.
  • Slight chance of much below-normal temperatures for southeast Oregon, much of Nevada, Utah, and relatively small portions of adjacent states, Tue-Wed, Jan 31-Feb 1.
  • Slight chance of much below-normal temperatures generally south of a line from eastern Louisiana to southern South Carolina, Tue-Wed, Jan 31-Feb 1.
  • Severe Drought across portions of central and southern California, southwestern Arizona, Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, southern Appalachians, Northeast, and Hawaii.
Detailed Summary

For Thursday January 26 - Monday January 30: A cold front moving off the East Coast at the beginning of the period is expected to be followed by coast-to-coast high pressure. During the ensuing 3-4 days, fast-moving disturbances are forecast to traverse the Great Lakes region, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic. These disturbances are predicted to bring lake-enhanced snow squalls to typical downwind areas of the Great Lakes, though nothing unusually heavy is foreseen at this time. For most remaining areas of the CONUS, dry westerly or northwesterly flow favors widespread dryness. A few minor exceptions include the Florida peninsula and southern Texas, where rainfall amounts of less than 0.50-inch are anticipated during this period.

For large portions of both the Intermountain Region and the Rockies, surface temperatures are expected to range from 12-16 degrees below-normal, between January 26-28.

In the Alaska domain, several frontal systems are forecast to bring unsettled conditions to the region. A southerly to southwesterly fetch of Pacific moisture is expected to result in heavy precipitation for the Alaska coast (at least 1.5-2.0 inches per 24-hour period), between the Kenai Peninsula and Ketchikan (far southern Panhandle). Windswept rain and/or mixed precipitation is favored for coastal areas, and snow for mountainous areas.

For Tuesday January 31 - Monday February 06: According to the GEFS calibrated Probabilistic Extremes Outlook (PEO) tool, there is a slight chance (20-percent) of much below-normal temperatures for a large portion of the Intermountain West and Rockies from Jan 31-Feb 1. There is also a slight chance of much below-normal temperatures generally south of a line from eastern Louisiana to southern South Carolina. These areas correspond to where the GEFS predicts minimum temperature values will fall within the lowest 15 percent of the climatological distribution. The colder conditions over the Southeast CONUS are expected to be brief, followed by a gradual moderation in temperatures.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa

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Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.


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