Synopsis: A series of upper level troughs
are expected to move across the northern U.S. during
the period, while a high pressure ridge seems likely
to persist over the West. The succession of troughs
is expected to bring cold air into the northern Plains,
and much of the northeastern quadrant of the country,
leading to the first killing frost or freeze of the
season to many areas where the growing season has not
yet ended. Temperatures should remain warm in the Southwest,
with no significant precipitation anywhere west of the
Rocky Mountains. A series of storms is expected to bring
high winds and waves, and heavy precipitation to southern
coastal sections of Alaska. Hurricane Jose is predicted
to move through the northeastern Caribbean but is not
expected to threaten the mainland U.S.
- Drought continues in parts of the South, the
Ohio Valley and the Midwest. There has been slight
improvement in Texas. Drought continues unabated
in northeastern Oregon, southeastern Washington,
southwestern Idaho and northern Nevada
- The strongest cold airmass of the season so far
is expected to bring the first killing frost or
freeze of the season to many areas of the north-central
and northeastern U.S. where the growing season has
not yet ended.
- High fire danger continues in portions of the
West, due to a continuation of warm, dry weather.
- Hurricane Jose, the 10th named Atlantic storm
of the season, is predicted to move through the
northeastern Caribbean the next few days. Please
refer to the latest updates from the National Hurricane
Center in Miami.
- A series of autumn storms is expected to affect
southern Alaska with heavy precipitation, high winds
and high waves along the coast.
- La Nina continues in the equatorial Pacific and
is likely to persist through the coming winter.
For Friday Oct 22 through Sunday Oct 24: Most available
models show an amplified pattern with a western ridge
and eastern trough. A significant cold outbreak is likely
to overspread the northern Great Plains and much of
the northeastern quadrant of the Nation, bringing the
first killing frost or hard freeze to areas where the
growing season has not yet ended. A deep trough south
of the Aleutians steers two storms northeastward towards
the Alaska Panhandle where high winds and waves and
heavy precipitation are expected. No significant precipitation
is expected over the West, where continued warm conditions
will prevent the fire danger from diminishing. However,
no strong downslope winds are expected during this period
or the following week. Hurricane Jose, the 10th named
tropical storm of this season, is predicted to cross
the northeastern Caribbean but will probably recurve
well before nearing the U.S. mainland.
For Monday Oct 25 through Friday Oct 29: The same
basic pattern continues with little significant overall
change. Two more intense storms are predicted to strike
the south coast of Alaska, bringing gales and heavy
precipitation. Another significant cold outbreak over
the north-central and northeastern parts of the country
is possible near the end of the period.
Please consult local NWS Forecast
Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific