Updated 2 December 1997

We are currently in the midst of a strong El Niño (warm) episode, which is forecast to continue through February-April 1998. During this period the tropical ocean surface temperatures are forecast to remain comparable in magnitude and areal extent to that of 1982-83, which is considered to be the strongest warm episode of this century. In contrast to the 1982-83 El Niño, which caught the country by surprise, the present El Niño was predicted several months in advance. This improvement in climate prediction is the direct result of intensive research efforts by NOAA and its partners during the last 15 years. Part of this research effort, which is still ongoing, has been devoted to determining the effects of El Niño on temperature and precipitation patterns in the U. S. and globally. Some results of this research for your state are discussed below.

Information on state impacts is derived by looking at what has happened in those years during the past century that featured strong El Niño episodes. While the special 102 year climate division data base used for products over the conterminous U.S. is not available for Alaska and Hawaii, there is evidence that strong El Niño episodes have consistent impacts on these states. The attached product indicates that Hawaii tends to be drier than normal during the November-May period of a moderate to strong El Niño. Hawaii also tends to be warmer than normal during the October-March period in the year following such an episode.