Site Map News Organization Search

 CPC Search About Us    Our Mission    Who We Are Contact Us    CPC Information    CPC Web Team

HOME > Monitoring_and_Data > Oceanic and Atmospheric Data > Reanalysis: Atmospheric Data > CFSR plant hardiness zones

### Introduction

The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) creates analyses of many fields including the 2 meter temperature. The CFSR/GFS analyses were used to create the growing degree days. The growing degree days is a factor in the plant and pest development.

### Celcius and Fahrenheit GDD

For corn, a commonly used GDD uses a minimum temperature (Tlower or Tbase) of 50F and a maximum temperature (Tupper or Tmax) of 86F. Now 50F and 86F corresponds to 10C and 30C. If you use the 10_30 model and multiply the results by 9/5, you'll get the GDD from 50F-86F model in Fahrenheit.

### Calculation

1. For the CFSR, find the average daily 2m temperature (6 hour forecast)
2. For the GFS, find the average daily 2m temperature by averging the daily Tmax and Tmin
3. Convert the data from Kelvin to Celsius.
4. Calculate the growing degree (crop dependent): GD = min(Tmax,max(Tbase,T)) - Tbase
where Tbase and Tmax depend on the crop model. The formula is the same as:
• if (T < Tbase) GD = 0
• if (Tbase < T and T < Tmax) GD = T - Tbase
• if (Tmax < T) GD = Tmax - Tbase
5. For the grib files, the GDD is accumulated from January 1. To get the GDD for June 15 starting from March 15, you would take the June 15th GDD and subtract the GDD for March 14.
6. The CFSR climatology GDD is the average GDD from 1979-2008.

### Models

The models are in Celcius and the first number is Tbase and the second number is Tmax.
1. 5.5_30: (5.5C/30C) wheat, barley, rye, oats, flaxseed, lettuce, asparagus
2. 10_30: (10C/30C) same as the 50F-86F model, corn, sorghum, rice, soybeans, tomato, Black cutworm, European Corn Borer

### Details and Caveats

The CFSR uses a system very similar to those run by the National Weather Service to produce the 1-6 day weather forecasts that you see on TV. (Other countries run similar systems for their 1-6 day forecasts.) As part of producing a weather forecast, an analysis of the current atmospheric state is created. This analysis is made using data from satellites, aircraft, weather ballons and other sources but surprising no 2-meter temperature observations. The 2-m temperature is model derived product which depends on the land-surface model, the model physics, the model parameterizations and the analyses of the winds, temperatures and humidity at the model levels. There are many reasons why the analyses will differ from observations. For example, you make your temperature observation on a patch of grass and the model is using a forest. (The land surface is suppose to be representative of the average conditions in a 35x35 km grid box.) Yes, grass vs. forest can be a big difference. Another problem is model uses the average height of the grid box. Your measurement will be at a different elevation. An other problem is the model doesn't know the local orography. You could be on an exposed peak or in a sheltered valley. These features are not resolved within a 35-km grid used by the CFSR model.

One way to view the CFSR temperature is they are a model estimate of average temperature of a 35km x 35km grid box. It will not give you the same number as an observation.