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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199501

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
5
10
0
0
0
0
5
6
7
18
7
9
12
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
5
10
11
22
48
81
5
6
7
18
18
31
60
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
11
18
36
0
0
0
0
18
21
25
64
25
32
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
5
9
10
20
44
74
5
6
6
17
17
28
55
100

hitrate: 0.321 hitrate: 0.284
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.43 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 2.61 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.018 Heidke skill score: -0.073
true Heidke skill score: -0.068 true Heidke skill score: -0.048
Kuipers skill score: -0.018 Kuipers skill score: -0.073
true Kuipers skill score: -0.067 true Kuipers skill score: -0.056
threat score:
0.133 0.000 0.304
threat score:
0.077 0.244 0.099
equitable threat score:
-0.040 0.000 -0.047
equitable threat score:
0.014 -0.015 -0.048
probability of detection:
0.286 0.000 0.583
probability of detection:
0.111 0.710 0.117
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.611
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.728 0.611
samples: 28 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 25.69 %coverage: 100.00