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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
1
6
0
0
0
0
11
14
4
29
12
18
5
35

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
1
6
33
29
12
74
11
14
4
29
45
47
17
109

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
11
3
17
0
0
0
0
31
40
11
83
34
51
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
1
6
30
27
11
68
10
13
4
27
41
43
16
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.312
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 5.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 1.57 1.71
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.032
true Heidke skill score: -0.042 true Heidke skill score: -0.070
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.032
true Kuipers skill score: -0.057 true Kuipers skill score: -0.073
threat score:
0.059 0.000 0.133
threat score:
0.020 0.315 0.095
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.000 -0.006
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.048 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.083 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.022 0.617 0.235
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.000 0.862
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.608 0.862
samples: 35 out of 109 samples: 109 out of 109
%coverage: 32.11 %coverage: 100.00