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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
3
10
5
18
3
11
5
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
40
25
24
89
3
10
5
18
43
36
29
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
0
5
0
0
0
0
16
53
26
95
16
58
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
37
23
22
82
3
9
5
17
40
33
27
100

hitrate: 0.263 hitrate: 0.278
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 3.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.02 2.47 0.62
Heidke skill score: -0.105 Heidke skill score: -0.083
true Heidke skill score: 0.007 true Heidke skill score: -0.067
Kuipers skill score: -0.105 Kuipers skill score: -0.083
true Kuipers skill score: 0.010 true Kuipers skill score: -0.069
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.278
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.119
equitable threat score:
-0.041 0.000 0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.066 0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.694 0.172
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.722
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.719 0.722
samples: 19 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 17.59 %coverage: 100.00