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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
2
13
0
0
0
0
3
4
3
10
8
10
5
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
2
13
35
32
15
82
3
4
3
10
43
42
20
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
26
9
57
0
0
0
0
13
17
13
43
35
43
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
2
12
33
30
14
78
3
4
3
10
41
40
19
100

hitrate: 0.348 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.62 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 1.95 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.022 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.080 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.022 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.088 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.312 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.098 0.348 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.042 0.000 0.084
equitable threat score:
-0.007 -0.014 0.044
probability of detection:
0.625 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.116 0.762 0.150
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.610 0.700
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00