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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
4
4
4
0
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
37
46
15
98
1
3
0
4
41
50
15
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
13
0
50
0
0
0
0
13
38
0
50
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
0
4
35
43
14
92
1
3
0
4
39
47
14
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.462
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 1.96 0.27
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.193
true Heidke skill score: 0.167 true Heidke skill score: 0.011
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.193
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.010
threat score:
0.600 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.071 0.451 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.036 -0.004 -0.031
probability of detection:
0.750 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.073 0.920 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.250 0.531 1.000
samples: 8 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 7.55 %coverage: 100.00