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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
5
7
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
9
10
1
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
5
7
27
24
38
89
9
0
0
9
37
25
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
31
44
0
0
0
0
56
0
0
56
63
6
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
5
7
26
23
36
85
9
0
0
9
35
24
41
100

hitrate: 0.062 hitrate: 0.238
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.70 0.00 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 3.56 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.406 Heidke skill score: -0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.702 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: -0.406 Kuipers skill score: -0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.762 true Kuipers skill score: -0.034
threat score:
0.062 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.023 0.267 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.290 0.000 -0.251
equitable threat score:
-0.036 0.041 -0.076
probability of detection:
0.100 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.027 0.960 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.730 1.000
samples: 16 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 15.24 %coverage: 100.00