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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
4
8
0
0
0
0
6
1
1
8
6
5
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
4
8
44
23
23
90
6
1
1
8
50
28
28
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
25
50
0
0
0
0
38
6
6
50
38
31
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
4
8
42
22
22
85
6
1
1
8
47
26
26
100

hitrate: 0.062 hitrate: 0.226
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.00 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 3.21 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.406 Heidke skill score: -0.160
true Heidke skill score: -0.429 true Heidke skill score: -0.074
Kuipers skill score: -0.406 Kuipers skill score: -0.160
true Kuipers skill score: -0.424 true Kuipers skill score: -0.084
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.242 0.029
equitable threat score:
-0.273 0.000 -0.158
equitable threat score:
-0.070 -0.011 -0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.000 0.821 0.036
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.744 0.875
samples: 16 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 15.09 %coverage: 100.00