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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
4
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
30
42
26
98
1
1
2
4
32
45
28
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
29
0
43
0
0
0
0
14
14
29
57
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
29
40
25
93
1
1
2
4
30
43
27
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 2.18 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.017
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.219 true Kuipers skill score: 0.015
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.029 0.416 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.045 0.000 0.300
equitable threat score:
0.003 0.000 0.032
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.031 0.933 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.571 0.500
samples: 7 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 6.67 %coverage: 100.00