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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
2
11
0
0
0
0
2
4
2
8
7
8
4
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
2
11
18
33
35
86
2
4
2
8
25
41
39
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
21
11
58
0
0
0
0
11
21
11
42
37
42
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
2
10
17
31
33
82
2
4
2
8
24
39
37
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.57 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 2.10 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.095 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.103 true Kuipers skill score: 0.012
threat score:
0.385 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.161 0.351 0.044
equitable threat score:
0.106 0.000 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.084 -0.010 -0.023
probability of detection:
0.714 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.200 0.805 0.051
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.545 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.545 0.616 0.750
samples: 19 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 18.10 %coverage: 100.00