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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
0
0
0
0
2
10
4
16
4
12
4
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
27
29
29
85
2
10
4
16
31
41
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
10
0
20
0
0
0
0
10
50
20
80
20
60
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
26
28
28
81
2
10
4
15
30
39
31
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.07 0.48
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.125 true Heidke skill score: -0.067
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.179 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.061 0.299 0.089
equitable threat score:
0.231 0.000 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.026 -0.066 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.065 0.707 0.121
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.659 0.750
samples: 20 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00