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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
0
0
0
0
8
5
10
23
8
8
14
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
29
18
28
75
8
5
10
23
37
26
42
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
13
23
0
0
0
0
27
17
33
77
27
27
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
28
17
27
71
8
5
10
22
35
25
40
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.87 0.00 1.64
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.19 2.88 0.55
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: -0.149 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: -0.135 true Kuipers skill score: -0.033
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.370
threat score:
0.000 0.217 0.182
equitable threat score:
-0.142 0.000 -0.045
equitable threat score:
-0.059 -0.009 0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.714
probability of detection:
0.000 0.692 0.238
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.565
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.760 0.565
samples: 30 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00