CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
4
10
0
0
0
0
10
12
13
35
13
15
17
45

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
4
10
18
27
15
60
10
12
13
35
31
42
32
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
9
22
0
0
0
0
22
27
29
78
29
33
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
4
10
17
26
14
57
10
11
12
33
30
40
30
100

hitrate: 0.356 hitrate: 0.410
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.77 0.00 2.06
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 1.43 1.09
Heidke skill score: 0.033 Heidke skill score: 0.114
true Heidke skill score: -0.004 true Heidke skill score: 0.080
Kuipers skill score: 0.033 Kuipers skill score: 0.114
true Kuipers skill score: -0.004 true Kuipers skill score: 0.078
threat score:
0.150 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.079 0.360 0.241
equitable threat score:
0.006 0.000 -0.009
equitable threat score:
0.001 0.059 0.054
probability of detection:
0.231 0.000 0.765
probability of detection:
0.097 0.643 0.406
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.000 0.629
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.550 0.629
samples: 45 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00