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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
1
11
0
0
0
0
7
9
20
36
13
13
21
47

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
1
11
37
14
7
58
7
9
20
36
50
27
28
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
9
2
23
0
0
0
0
15
19
43
77
28
28
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
1
10
35
13
7
55
7
9
19
34
48
26
27
100

hitrate: 0.553 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.85 0.00 1.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 2.15 1.29
Heidke skill score: 0.330 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.247 true Heidke skill score: 0.136
Kuipers skill score: 0.330 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.226 true Kuipers skill score: 0.153
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.541
threat score:
0.109 0.197 0.455
equitable threat score:
0.198 0.000 0.187
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.016 0.302
probability of detection:
0.462 0.000 0.952
probability of detection:
0.120 0.519 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.000 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.759 0.444
samples: 47 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 44.76 %coverage: 100.00