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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
14
2
20
0
0
0
0
4
7
28
39
8
21
30
59

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
14
2
20
1
14
32
47
4
7
28
39
9
35
62
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
24
3
34
0
0
0
0
7
12
47
66
14
36
51
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
13
2
19
1
13
30
44
4
7
26
37
8
33
58
100

hitrate: 0.542 hitrate: 0.434
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.00 1.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.22 1.34 0.63
Heidke skill score: 0.314 Heidke skill score: 0.151
true Heidke skill score: 0.259 true Heidke skill score: 0.091
Kuipers skill score: 0.314 Kuipers skill score: 0.151
true Kuipers skill score: 0.269 true Kuipers skill score: 0.104
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.683
threat score:
0.160 0.206 0.384
equitable threat score:
0.061 0.000 0.386
equitable threat score:
0.099 -0.029 0.103
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.933
probability of detection:
0.444 0.400 0.452
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.282
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.702 0.282
samples: 59 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 55.66 %coverage: 100.00