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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
15
17
35
0
0
0
0
0
9
27
36
3
24
44
71

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
15
17
35
5
14
16
35
0
9
27
36
8
38
60
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
21
24
49
0
0
0
0
0
13
38
51
4
34
62
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
14
16
33
5
13
15
33
0
8
25
34
8
36
57
100

hitrate: 0.423 hitrate: 0.415
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
11.67 0.00 0.82
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.38 0.92 0.60
Heidke skill score: 0.134 Heidke skill score: 0.123
true Heidke skill score: 0.132 true Heidke skill score: 0.120
Kuipers skill score: 0.134 Kuipers skill score: 0.123
true Kuipers skill score: 0.175 true Kuipers skill score: 0.146
threat score:
0.086 0.000 0.509
threat score:
0.075 0.237 0.391
equitable threat score:
0.045 0.000 0.153
equitable threat score:
0.010 0.031 0.136
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.614
probability of detection:
0.375 0.368 0.450
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.914 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.914 0.600 0.250
samples: 71 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 66.98 %coverage: 100.00