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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
7
3
2
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
26
45
98
3
2
2
7
30
28
47
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
29
29
100
43
29
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
25
43
93
3
2
2
7
29
27
45
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.50 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.017
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.019
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.260 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.002 -0.023
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.735 0.714
samples: 7 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 6.67 %coverage: 100.00