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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
8
15
25
2
8
15
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
23
36
80
2
8
15
25
23
31
51
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
32
60
100
8
32
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
22
34
76
2
8
14
24
22
30
49
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.362
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.58 0.49
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: 0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: 0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.034
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.261 0.246
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 0.058
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.742 0.294
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.712 0.400
samples: 25 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 23.81 %coverage: 100.00