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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199809

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
4
13
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
5
5
7
6
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
4
13
32
35
20
87
0
3
2
5
37
42
26
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
22
22
72
0
0
0
0
0
17
11
28
28
39
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
4
12
30
33
19
83
0
3
2
5
35
40
25
100

hitrate: 0.389 hitrate: 0.400
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.60 0.00 0.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 2.07 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.083 Heidke skill score: 0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.135 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.083 Kuipers skill score: 0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.145 true Kuipers skill score: 0.020
threat score:
0.385 0.000 0.222
threat score:
0.111 0.372 0.069
equitable threat score:
0.148 0.000 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.010 0.003 0.027
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.135 0.833 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.598 0.600
samples: 18 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 17.14 %coverage: 100.00