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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
18
9
38
0
0
0
0
7
9
13
29
18
27
22
67

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
18
9
38
19
10
9
38
7
9
13
29
37
37
31
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
27
13
57
0
0
0
0
10
13
19
43
27
40
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
17
9
36
18
10
9
36
7
9
12
28
35
35
30
100

hitrate: 0.358 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.11 0.00 1.32
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.03 1.03 0.94
Heidke skill score: 0.037 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.090 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.037 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.097 true Kuipers skill score: -0.019
threat score:
0.244 0.000 0.342
threat score:
0.172 0.154 0.277
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.000 0.122
equitable threat score:
-0.047 -0.066 0.115
probability of detection:
0.611 0.000 0.591
probability of detection:
0.297 0.270 0.419
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.711 0.000 0.552
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.711 0.737 0.552
samples: 67 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 63.81 %coverage: 100.00