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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
8
5
23
0
0
0
0
11
6
5
22
21
14
10
45

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
8
5
23
39
13
8
60
11
6
5
22
60
27
18
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
18
11
51
0
0
0
0
24
13
11
49
47
31
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
8
5
22
37
12
8
57
10
6
5
21
57
26
17
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.10 0.00 2.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 2.22 1.22
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: -0.021 true Heidke skill score: -0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: -0.022 true Kuipers skill score: -0.072
threat score:
0.294 0.000 0.185
threat score:
0.137 0.176 0.143
equitable threat score:
-0.032 0.000 0.005
equitable threat score:
-0.053 -0.041 0.039
probability of detection:
0.476 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.167 0.481 0.278
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.565 0.000 0.773
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.565 0.783 0.773
samples: 45 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00