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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
6
12
25
0
0
0
0
4
7
24
35
11
13
36
60

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
6
12
25
6
15
25
46
4
7
24
35
17
28
61
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
10
20
42
0
0
0
0
7
12
40
58
18
22
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
6
11
24
6
14
24
43
4
7
23
33
16
26
58
100

hitrate: 0.517 hitrate: 0.434
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.27 0.00 0.97
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.47 1.64 0.57
Heidke skill score: 0.275 Heidke skill score: 0.151
true Heidke skill score: 0.157 true Heidke skill score: 0.139
Kuipers skill score: 0.275 Kuipers skill score: 0.151
true Kuipers skill score: 0.161 true Kuipers skill score: 0.160
threat score:
0.241 0.000 0.511
threat score:
0.200 0.254 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.099 0.000 0.115
equitable threat score:
0.096 0.061 0.074
probability of detection:
0.636 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.412 0.536 0.393
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.720 0.000 0.314
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.720 0.674 0.314
samples: 60 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 56.60 %coverage: 100.00