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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
1
0
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
1
0
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
1
0
16
36
33
21
90
0
0
0
0
51
34
21
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
94
6
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
94
6
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
1
0
15
34
31
20
85
0
0
0
0
48
32
20
100

hitrate: 0.938 hitrate: 0.453
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.07 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 2.65 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.906 Heidke skill score: 0.179
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.165
Kuipers skill score: 0.906 Kuipers skill score: 0.179
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.172
threat score:
0.938 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.288 0.363 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.165 0.067 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.294 0.971 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.062 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.062 0.633 0.000
samples: 16 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 15.09 %coverage: 100.00