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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
7
8
30
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
7
8
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
15
7
8
30
37
24
16
77
0
0
0
0
52
31
24
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
23
27
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
23
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
7
7
28
35
22
15
72
0
0
0
0
49
29
22
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.364
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.58 2.48 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.047
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.047
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.031
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.224 0.286 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.027 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.288 0.774 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.688 0.000
samples: 30 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 28.04 %coverage: 100.00