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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
5
15
0
0
0
0
4
3
7
14
10
7
12
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
5
15
24
17
36
77
4
3
7
14
34
24
48
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
14
17
52
0
0
0
0
14
10
24
48
34
24
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
4
5
14
23
16
34
73
4
3
7
13
32
23
45
100

hitrate: 0.448 hitrate: 0.283
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 1.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 3.21 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.172 Heidke skill score: -0.075
true Heidke skill score: 0.113 true Heidke skill score: 0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.172 Kuipers skill score: -0.075
true Kuipers skill score: 0.108 true Kuipers skill score: 0.021
threat score:
0.316 0.000 0.368
threat score:
0.140 0.202 0.127
equitable threat score:
0.060 0.000 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.031 -0.007 0.014
probability of detection:
0.600 0.000 0.583
probability of detection:
0.176 0.708 0.146
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.779 0.500
samples: 29 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 27.36 %coverage: 100.00