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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
4
5
0
0
0
0
1
12
10
23
1
13
14
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
4
5
21
25
32
78
1
12
10
23
22
38
46
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
14
18
0
0
0
0
4
43
36
82
4
46
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
4
5
20
24
30
74
1
11
9
22
21
36
43
100

hitrate: 0.357 hitrate: 0.330
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.00 1.64
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 2.05 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.036 Heidke skill score: -0.005
true Heidke skill score: -0.103 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: 0.036 Kuipers skill score: -0.005
true Kuipers skill score: -0.112 true Kuipers skill score: -0.059
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.370
threat score:
0.000 0.275 0.169
equitable threat score:
-0.031 0.000 -0.097
equitable threat score:
-0.040 -0.047 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.714
probability of detection:
0.000 0.658 0.217
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.565
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.679 0.565
samples: 28 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 26.42 %coverage: 100.00