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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
4
11
0
0
0
0
0
4
2
6
2
9
6
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
4
11
43
31
15
89
0
4
2
6
45
40
21
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
29
24
65
0
0
0
0
0
24
12
35
12
53
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
4
10
41
29
14
84
0
4
2
6
42
38
20
100

hitrate: 0.235 hitrate: 0.330
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.50 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 2.22 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.147 Heidke skill score: -0.005
true Heidke skill score: 0.043 true Heidke skill score: -0.067
Kuipers skill score: -0.147 Kuipers skill score: -0.005
true Kuipers skill score: 0.060 true Kuipers skill score: -0.066
threat score:
0.182 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.037 0.316 0.080
equitable threat score:
0.073 0.000 -0.015
equitable threat score:
-0.054 -0.040 0.034
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.044 0.775 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.818 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.818 0.652 0.667
samples: 17 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 16.04 %coverage: 100.00