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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199909

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
1
10
0
0
0
0
8
11
15
34
10
18
16
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
1
10
24
15
23
62
8
11
15
34
34
33
39
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
16
2
23
0
0
0
0
18
25
34
77
23
41
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
1
9
23
14
22
58
8
10
14
32
32
31
37
100

hitrate: 0.386 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 2.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 1.88 0.87
Heidke skill score: 0.080 Heidke skill score: -0.047
true Heidke skill score: 0.080 true Heidke skill score: -0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.080 Kuipers skill score: -0.047
true Kuipers skill score: 0.083 true Kuipers skill score: -0.043
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.048 0.188 0.259
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.000 0.116
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.071 0.055
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.938
probability of detection:
0.059 0.455 0.385
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.559
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.758 0.559
samples: 44 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 41.51 %coverage: 100.00