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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199910

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: monthly Official Categorical Precip
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 month

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
0
15
0
0
0
0
11
10
9
30
21
15
9
45

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
0
15
24
27
10
61
11
10
9
30
45
42
19
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
11
0
33
0
0
0
0
24
22
20
67
47
33
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
5
0
14
23
25
9
58
10
9
8
28
42
40
18
100

hitrate: 0.422 hitrate: 0.434
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 0.00 3.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.45 1.58
Heidke skill score: 0.133 Heidke skill score: 0.151
true Heidke skill score: 0.188 true Heidke skill score: 0.144
Kuipers skill score: 0.133 Kuipers skill score: 0.151
true Kuipers skill score: 0.211 true Kuipers skill score: 0.151
threat score:
0.385 0.000 0.300
threat score:
0.200 0.355 0.225
equitable threat score:
0.158 0.000 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.083 0.055 0.105
probability of detection:
0.476 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.222 0.643 0.474
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.557 0.700
samples: 45 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 42.45 %coverage: 100.00